With the stock market continuing to bounce around nervously at all-time highs, I continue to keep my eyes peeled for value stocks that have a chance of bucking broader market trends if the stock market is due for aWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been a regular contributor on Seeking Alpha ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2024, and 2023 was $299.3 million and $276.3 million, respectively, indicating a growth of approximately 8.9% year-over-year[99] - The company reported net losses of $94.3 million and $90.4 million for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2024, and 2023, respectively, with an accumulated deficit of $457.8 million as of December 31, 2024[102] - The company expects fluctuations in financial results and key metrics, making future projections difficult[107] - Economic downturns and unfavorable market conditions could adversely affect the company's ability to grow and maintain financial stability[114] - The subscription revenue model means that downturns in new sales may not be immediately reflected in financial results, complicating revenue recognition[113] Growth Strategy - The company plans to continue investing significantly in research and development, sales and marketing, and international expansion to drive long-term growth[103] - Customer retention and expansion are critical for maintaining revenue growth, with challenges arising from customer satisfaction, pricing, and competition[105] - The company is focusing on sales to larger organizations, which may increase the variability of sales cycles and financial results[110] - Expanding sales and marketing capabilities is essential for increasing the customer base, but failure to do so could adversely affect financial performance[149] - Building successful relationships with channel partners is critical for revenue generation, and any failures in these partnerships could limit market expansion[151] Market and Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for digital analytics applications is fragmented and rapidly evolving, with low barriers to entry, leading to intensified competition and potential pricing pressures[117] - The success of the company is dependent on the widespread adoption of SaaS applications, particularly in the digital analytics space[115] - The company faces challenges in predicting customer adoption rates for its Digital Analytics Platform, which may negatively impact revenue if demand for SaaS applications decreases due to various factors such as data security concerns and competition[116] Research and Development - Research and development expenses accounted for 33% of the company's revenue for the years ended December 31, 2024, and 2023[164] - Significant investment is required to enhance AI Technologies integrated into the company's products, with risks associated with development and deployment that could impact efficiency and profitability[124] - The company is in various stages of developing AI Technologies, which may face unforeseen difficulties, including performance issues and market acceptance challenges[125] Cybersecurity and Data Protection - Unauthorized access to customer data or security breaches could lead to significant reputational damage and financial liabilities for the company[134] - The company has experienced an increase in cybersecurity risks due to a hybrid work environment, which may create additional vulnerabilities for cybercriminals to exploit[135] - The company is subject to increasing reporting obligations regarding material cybersecurity incidents, which could divert management's attention and expose system vulnerabilities[137] - Failure to comply with reporting requirements could result in monetary fines and damage to the company's reputation, affecting business operations and financial condition[138] Regulatory and Compliance Risks - Compliance with U.S. export controls and economic sanctions is critical, as violations could result in substantial fines and penalties[177] - The evolving regulatory framework for AI technologies may require the company to expend significant resources to ensure compliance and remain competitive[180] - The EU AI Act, expected to enter into force on August 1, 2024, will impose substantial requirements on companies operating in the EU, including potential fines of up to 7% of worldwide annual turnover for breaches[183] - The company is subject to various anti-corruption laws, and violations could lead to significant sanctions and reputational harm[179] International Operations - The company faces risks in expanding international operations, including slower public cloud adoption and complex local regulations[159] - 40% of the company's revenue was generated outside the United States in 2024, compared to 39% in 2023[158] - The ongoing war in Ukraine has led to disruptions affecting customer businesses and may reduce revenue from impacted regions[161] - The company has ceased providing software and IT support services to Russia since September 12, 2024, due to new restrictions, resulting in a decrease in revenue and increased bad debts[188] Financial and Taxation Risks - The company may require additional capital for growth, which might not be available on favorable terms[166] - Changes in laws and regulations regarding AI technologies may necessitate adjustments to the company’s products and services, increasing operational costs[184] - The company may face income tax audits in various jurisdictions, which could lead to material adverse effects on its results of operations if uncertain tax positions are resolved unfavorably[207] - The company currently collects applicable sales and indirect taxes but may face additional tax liabilities that could increase customer costs and adversely affect results[208] Stock and Shareholder Considerations - The company does not intend to pay dividends for the foreseeable future, relying on stock price appreciation for returns[227] - The company expects to issue additional capital stock in the future, which will dilute existing stockholders[226] - The dual class structure may lead to a lower or more volatile trading price of Class A common stock due to exclusion from certain indices[219] - Anti-takeover provisions in the company's charter could limit stockholder influence and affect the trading price of Class A common stock[228] Operational Challenges - The complexity of the company's platform may lead to undetected errors or bugs, which could adversely affect business growth prospects[143] - High demand for product support without corresponding revenue could increase costs and negatively impact financial results[144] - The company may face challenges in attracting and retaining skilled employees due to high competition and living costs in the San Francisco Bay Area[236] - Changes in the business or regulatory climate in the San Francisco Bay Area could adversely affect the company's operations and financial condition[239] Accounting and Reporting - Changes in U.S. GAAP could significantly affect the company's reported results of operations[210] - The company’s critical accounting estimates and judgments could materially adversely affect its results if actual circumstances differ from assumptions[211] - The company has 11,501,725 options outstanding that, if fully exercised, would result in the issuance of shares of Class A common stock[223] - There are 13,519,769 shares of Class A common stock subject to restricted stock units (RSUs) that may be issued in the future[223]

Piper Sandler analyst Brent A. Bracelin reiterated the Overweight rating on Amplitude, Inc. AMPL, raising the price forecast to $17 from $15.The analyst has raised the price forecast, recommending it for small-cap growth investors due to leadership improvements, a new self-serve product driving strong growth, a promising new product cycle, and potential for cross-selling Command AI.The company reported fourth-quarter results, where revenues increased 9% year over year.Bracelin notes that while large deal co ...

Amplitude (AMPL) Q4 2024 Earnings Call February 20, 2025 03:53 AM ET Company Participants John Streppa - Head Of Investor RelationsSpenser Skates - Chief Executive Officer & Co-FounderAndrew Casey - Chief Financial OfficerKyle Manning - Investment Banking AssociateNick Altmann - Director - U.S. Software Equity ResearchAshley Kim - AVP - Senior Equity Research Associate Conference Call Participants Koji Ikeda - AnalystTaylor McGinnis - AnalystArjun Bhatia - Partner, Co-Head Tech Equity Research, Software Ana ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter revenue was $78 million, up 9% year-over-year [11][50] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased to $312 million, up $13 million from the previous quarter [11][50] - Non-GAAP operating income was $0.2 million, with free cash flow for the year at almost $12 million [11][54] - Gross margin for Q4 was 77%, consistent with Q4 2023 [52][120] - Net income per share was $0.02 based on 135.7 million diluted shares, compared to $0.04 with 129.2 million diluted shares a year ago [54][122] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customers with more than $100,000 in ARR grew to 591, an increase of 16% year-over-year [11][51] - In-period net revenue retention (NRR) was 100%, a 2-point increase sequentially, while trailing 12-month NRR was 97% [51][119] - 67% of new land ARR in targeted accounts came from multi-product deals, indicating a strong cross-sell opportunity [30][97] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The macro environment remains challenging, particularly for new logos, but churn rates are stabilizing [40][109] - The company is focused on larger enterprises, defined as those with over 1,000 employees or generating over $100 million in revenue [44][113] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build an extensible platform that allows customers to create mission-critical workflows [44][112] - 2025 is positioned as the year of the Amplitude platform, emphasizing integrated solutions over standalone products [12][78] - A new strategic enterprise accounts team has been created to focus on top customers and prospects, enhancing relationships and driving higher gross bookings [27][95] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects continued pressure in the lower end of the market but is optimistic about improving churn rates [40][109] - The company plans to reinvest in its platform opportunity and is confident in its ability to build a durable growth model [56][126] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be between $78.5 million and $80.5 million, representing an annual growth rate of 10% at the midpoint [57][125] Other Important Information - The company launched new products, including Guides and Surveys, just four months after acquiring Command AI, indicating a strong pace of innovation [20][87] - The company is seeing strong demand for its new products, with record-breaking sign-ups on launch day [92][91] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the increase in net new ARR? - The increase in net new ARR is attributed to a focus on enterprise coverage and the maturation of sales cycles, with a component of ARR from Command AI contributing approximately $2 million [61][63][62] Question: What is the potential for cross-sell with Command AI? - The early feedback on the Guides and Surveys product indicates a compelling upsell opportunity, with expectations of a 20% to 50% uplift on analytics contracts [64][66][68]

Revenue and Growth - Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $312 million, an increase of 11% year-over-year[4] - Fourth quarter revenue was $78.1 million, up 9% year-over-year[4] - Revenue for Q4 2024 was $78,131,000, representing a 9.6% increase from $71,403,000 in Q4 2023[24] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be between $78.5 million and $80.5 million[7] - For the full year 2025, revenue guidance is set between $324.8 million and $330.8 million[7] - The number of customers with over $100,000 in ARR increased to 591, representing a 16% year-over-year growth[6] - Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased to $312 million by December 31, 2024, up from $281 million in December 2023, marking a growth of 11.0%[31] Profitability and Loss - GAAP net loss per share was $(0.26), compared to $(0.16) in the fourth quarter of 2023[6] - Non-GAAP net income per share was $0.02, down from $0.04 in the fourth quarter of 2023[6] - Net loss for Q4 2024 was $32,590,000, compared to a net loss of $18,543,000 in Q4 2023, marking an increase in loss of 75.8%[24] - GAAP net loss for Q4 2024 was $32,590 million, compared to a loss of $18,543 million in Q4 2023, indicating a deterioration in profitability[28] - Non-GAAP net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $8,489 million, up from $7,956 million in 2023, showing a growth of 6.7%[28] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Cash flow from operations was $3.2 million, a $0.9 million increase year-over-year[6] - Free cash flow remained stable at $1.5 million year-over-year[6] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $171,678,000 as of December 31, 2024, down from $248,491,000 at the end of 2023, a decline of 30.8%[22] - Free cash flow for Q4 2024 was $1,527 million, slightly higher than $1,482 million in Q4 2023, with a free cash flow margin of 2.0%[29] Expenses and Investments - Operating expenses increased to $93,830,000 in Q4 2024, compared to $74,675,000 in Q4 2023, reflecting a rise of 25.6%[24] - Research and development expenses surged to $34,430,000 in Q4 2024, compared to $22,198,000 in Q4 2023, a significant increase of 55.0%[24] - The company reported stock-based compensation expense of $35,105,000 in Q4 2024, up from $23,280,000 in Q4 2023, reflecting an increase of 50.7%[24] Deferred Revenue and Performance Obligations - Remaining performance obligations totaled $308.6 million, reflecting a 29% year-over-year increase[4] - Deferred revenue rose to $109,671,000 in Q4 2024, up from $102,573,000 in Q4 2023, an increase of 6.8%[24] Assets and Equity - Total assets increased to $445,911,000 in 2024, compared to $433,684,000 in 2023, showing a growth of 2.6%[22] - The total stockholders' equity increased slightly to $296,556,000 in 2024 from $294,753,000 in 2023, a growth of 0.6%[22] Margins and Retention - GAAP operating margin for Q4 2024 was -45.4%, worsening from -30.2% in Q4 2023, reflecting increased operational challenges[28] - Non-GAAP operating margin for Q4 2024 was 0.3%, down from 3.2% in Q4 2023, suggesting a decline in operational efficiency[28] - Dollar-based Net Retention Rate (NRR) for Q4 2024 improved to 100%, compared to 98% in Q4 2023, indicating strong customer retention[31] Gross Profit - Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $222,348,000, up from $204,361,000 in 2023, indicating an increase of 8.5%[24] - GAAP gross profit for Q4 2024 was $58,325 million, up from $53,138 million in Q4 2023, representing a growth of 4.5%[28] - Non-GAAP gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached $229,310 million, compared to $212,899 million in 2023, reflecting an increase of 7.7%[28]

Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) shares ended the last trading session 10.7% higher at $12.51. The jump came on an impressive volume with a higher-than-average number of shares changing hands in the session. This compares to the stock's 7.3% gain over the past four weeks.The stock is benefiting from the company’s continuous product innovation, which drives long-term value. Its evolving platform, catering to more users and workflows, has strengthened investor confidence.This company is expected to post quarterly earni ...

Portfolio Strategy - The portfolio strategy focuses on rotating more investments towards value-oriented growth stocks that are less susceptible to broader market corrections [1] Industry Expertise - The analyst has extensive experience covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, providing deep insights into industry trends [1] - The analyst serves as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, offering exposure to emerging themes shaping the industry [1] Media Presence - The analyst has been a regular contributor on Seeking Alpha since 2017, with articles syndicated to company pages in popular trading apps like Robinhood [1] - The analyst has been quoted in many web publications, indicating a strong media presence and influence [1]

Tech stocks saw a boom year in 2021 as they soared through the tail end of the pandemic. But tech stocks that went public during that year got stuck between a bull and bear market.Amplitude (AMPL -1.76%) is one such example. The software-as-a-service stock, which specializes in digital analytics and digital product optimization, went public in September 2021. The stock initially soared out of the gate on the broader enthusiasm for the software sector and the company's strong growth at the time of its market ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 revenue was $75.2 million, up 6% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter [4][41] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased to $298 million, up $8 million from the end of Q2, representing a 9% year-over-year growth [4][41] - Non-GAAP operating income was $1.6 million, or 2.1% of revenue, reflecting a 2 percentage-point decline year-over-year [5][46] - Gross margin was 77%, down 2 percentage points year-over-year but up 1 percentage point quarter-over-quarter [43] - Free cash flow was positive $4.5 million, or 6% of revenue, compared to $7.5 million, or 11% of revenue, a year ago [46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of customers representing $100,000 or more of ARR grew to 567, an increase of 13% year-over-year [5][42] - Cohort health continues to improve, with newer customer cohorts showing healthier gross and net retention patterns [9][10] - 23% of annual contracted customers use more than one product, indicating a strong competitive position against point solutions [6][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The macro environment remains challenging, with buyer scrutiny high, especially for larger deals [10][48] - Digital natives are on the defense, while M&A and layoffs are impacting end-user demand unpredictably [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on product innovation and expanding its enterprise customer base, with a particular emphasis on automated insights and actions [15][16][17] - The acquisition of Command AI is aimed at enhancing product capabilities and addressing customer demands for integrated solutions [19][91] - The company aims to drive consolidation in the market, particularly against legacy players like Google Analytics, which are facing customer dissatisfaction [6][81] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to drive long-term growth despite current macroeconomic challenges [48][52] - The company plans to reinvest in product innovation and maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation [49][38] - For Q4 2024, revenue is expected to be between $76 million and $77 million, representing an annual growth rate of 7% at the midpoint [51] Other Important Information - The company hired Wade Chambers as Chief Engineering Officer to enhance its engineering capabilities [11][12] - The launch of Web Experimentation aims to simplify A/B testing for users without engineering resources [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does Amplitude plan to capture interactions with AI agents? - Management indicated that capturing touchpoints between human and digital interactions remains crucial, and the company has a large repository of customer behavior data to leverage [55][57][58] Question: What areas are seeing room for incremental investments? - Management highlighted that the Command AI acquisition is driving changes in operating income guidance, with a focus on product innovation and enterprise success [60][62] Question: Can you discuss the overlap with Command AI and potential revenue uplift? - Management noted that while there was little revenue overlap, the integration of Command AI could potentially provide a 20% to 50% uplift in customer spending [64][68] Question: How are contract renewals performing? - Management stated that renewal rates are not satisfactory and emphasized the need for improvement as they transition focus to enterprise clients [85] Question: What is the outlook for long-term RPO growth? - Management attributed the 49% year-over-year growth in long-term RPO to stronger relationships with enterprise clients and aligning contracts with their value perception [96][97]