Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE:AR) is one of the best stocks under $50 to invest in. On February 13, Jefferies resumed coverage of Antero Resources with a Buy rating and increased its price target to $50 from $46. The firm noted that the company’s Q4 2025 results highlighted its strong positioning to benefit from tightening natural gas fundamentals driven by demand from LNG and data centers. Earlier on January 23, Morgan Stanley lowered its price target on Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE:AR) to $4 ...

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. ...

Group 1 - Antero Resources (AR) stock is currently performing well, with positive sentiment noted in recent analyses [2] - The oil and gas industry is characterized as a boom-bust, cyclical market, requiring patience and experience for successful investment [2] - The investing group Oil & Gas Value Research focuses on under-followed oil companies and midstream companies that present compelling investment opportunities [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of analyzing balance sheets, competitive positions, and development prospects of oil and gas companies [1] - Members of Oil & Gas Value Research receive exclusive analysis on certain companies not available on public platforms [1]

Group 1 - Antero Resources (AR) stock is currently viewed positively, with previous articles highlighting its potential [2] - The oil and gas industry is characterized as a boom-bust, cyclical sector, requiring patience and experience for successful investment [2] - The investing group Oil & Gas Value Research focuses on under-followed oil companies and midstream companies that present compelling investment opportunities [2] Group 2 - The analysis provided in the service includes a breakdown of companies' balance sheets, competitive positions, and development prospects [1] - Members of Oil & Gas Value Research receive early access to analyses and insights not available on the free site [1]

Core Insights - Antero Resources reported Q4 2025 adjusted earnings of 42 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 52 cents, and down from 58 cents in the same quarter last year [1][2][9] - Total revenues for the quarter were $1,412 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,309 million, and up from $1,169 million year-over-year [1][3] Production Overview - Total production in Q4 was 323 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), an increase from 316 Bcfe a year ago, and above the estimate of 319 Bcfe [3] - Natural gas production accounted for 64% of total production, reaching 208 Bcf, a 6% increase from 196 Bcf year-over-year, slightly below the estimate of 210 Bcf [3] - Oil production decreased to 756 thousand barrels (MBbls), down 11% from 850 MBbls in the previous year, and below the estimate of 841 MBbls [4] - C2 Ethane production was 7,668 MBbls, a 10% decrease from 8,518 MBbls year-over-year, while C3+ NGLs production increased by 1% to 10,678 MBbls [4] Price Realizations - Weighted natural-gas-equivalent price realization was $3.97 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe), up from $3.64 year-over-year [5] - Realized prices for natural gas rose 34% to $3.71 per Mcf from $2.77 a year ago [5] - Oil price realization was $45.99 per barrel (Bbl), down from $57.80 year-over-year [5] - Realized price for C3+ NGLs decreased to $35.41 per Bbl from $44.29, while C2 Ethane's realized price increased to $12.54 per Bbl from $10.31 [6] Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses rose to $1,122 million from $1,111 million in the previous year [7] - Average lease operating costs remained flat at 10 cents per Mcfe, while gathering and compression costs increased by 6% to 75 cents per Mcfe [7] - Transportation expenses rose 12% year-over-year to 67 cents per Mcfe, and processing costs increased by 6% to 90 cents per Mcfe [7] Capital Expenditures and Financials - Antero Resources spent $159 million on drilling and completion operations in Q4 [10] - As of December 31, 2025, the company had a long-term debt of $1.4 billion [10] Future Outlook - The company expects Q1 2026 production to average 3.8 Bcfe/d and net production for 2026 to be 4.1 Bcfe/d [11] - Drilling and completion capital for 2026 is projected to be $1 billion [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company generated over $750 million in free cash flow, which was used to reduce debt by over $300 million, repurchase $136 million of stock, and invest more than $250 million in acquisitions [19][20] - The company achieved a new record of 19 stages per day for a single completion crew in Q4 2025, with an average of over 14 stages per day for the year, representing an 8% increase from 2024 [19] - The drilling team averaged under 5 drilling days per 10,000 feet, which is 4% faster than the 2024 average [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The HG Energy acquisition added 385,000 net acres and over 400 drilling locations, extending the core inventory life by 5 years [5][6] - The transaction is expected to lower the cost structure by nearly 10%, which will further reduce break-even prices [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Propane inventories were higher than market expectations due to trade tensions and operational issues, but demand remained strong, with days of supply trending within the 5-year range [8][9] - NGL supply growth is expected to slow down due to lower oil prices, decreasing from 328,000 barrels a day in 2024 to 131,000 barrels a day in 2026 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand its core Marcellus position and increase dry gas exposure to capture demand from LNG exports and regional power plants [5][6] - The company is focused on reducing cash costs and expanding margins while maintaining a flexible capital program that allows for opportunistic investments [20][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate through challenging weather conditions without experiencing shut-in volumes, highlighting operational resilience [4] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on significant natural gas demand growth, particularly from LNG exports and regional power demand [24][25] Other Important Information - The company issued its inaugural investment-grade bonds, providing substantial flexibility alongside strong free cash flow generation [5] - The hedge program is designed to protect downside risks while maintaining exposure to higher natural gas prices, with approximately 40% of 2026 natural gas volumes hedged [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth capital and in-basin demand - Management indicated that growth capital is flexible and can be adjusted based on gas price assumptions, with the ability to defer projects if necessary [28][30] Question: Free cash flow usage and debt targets - Management stated there are no specific debt targets, but they are positioned to be opportunistic in share buybacks while also focusing on debt reduction [32][33] Question: Synergies from the HG deal - Management noted that synergies from the HG acquisition are better than expected, with improvements in cost structure and local gas demand [36][37] Question: Production ramp and acquired assets - Management clarified that the production ramp is as expected, with a forecast of 4.1 Bcfe a day for 2026, increasing to 4.3 Bcfe a day in 2027 [43] Question: NGL pricing outlook - Management explained that international pricing is driving forecasts for C3 prices, with domestic prices expected to stabilize as export infrastructure improves [44][47] Question: Winter gas realizations - Management confirmed that they participated in favorable pricing during the winter, with a significant portion of sales tied to daily pricing [51] Question: Cost structure changes - Management indicated a potential $0.25 improvement in cost structure, with variable components affecting overall costs [58] Question: Power supply deals - Management highlighted ongoing discussions for gas supply to utilities, with increasing demand for gas-fired power generation [62] Question: Firm transport position management - Management emphasized the optimization of their firm transport portfolio, allowing for flexibility in managing costs and maximizing margins [66] Question: Growth options and inventory visibility - Management expressed confidence in their ability to grow production efficiently, leveraging their extensive inventory and market position [92][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company generated over $750 million in free cash flow, which was used to reduce debt by over $300 million, repurchase $136 million of stock, and invest more than $250 million in acquisitions [20][21] - The company achieved a new record of 19 stages per day for a single completion crew in Q4 2025, with an average of over 14 stages per day for the full year, representing an 8% increase from 2024 [20] - The drilling team averaged under 5 drilling days per 10,000 feet, which is 4% faster than the 2024 average [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The HG Energy acquisition added 385,000 net acres and over 400 drilling locations, extending the core inventory life by 5 years [6] - The transaction is expected to lower the company's cost structure by nearly 10%, which will further reduce peer-leading break-even prices [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The NGL market faced headwinds in 2025, with propane inventories higher than expected due to trade tensions and operational issues at export terminals [8][9] - Despite these challenges, demand for propane remained strong, with storage levels expected to return to normal by the end of 2026 [11] - Natural gas demand was robust, with residential and commercial demand averaging nearly 42 BCF per day during winter, resulting in a significant increase compared to the five-year average [13][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand its core Marcellus position and increase dry gas exposure to capture demand from LNG exports and regional power generation [6][18] - The strategic initiatives include adding hedges to lock in attractive free cash flow yields and reducing cash costs to expand margins [5][7] - The company is positioned to capitalize on significant natural gas demand growth expected from LNG and regional power demand [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate through challenging weather conditions without experiencing shut-in volumes [4] - The company anticipates that higher LNG demand and reduced storage levels in Europe will support robust U.S. LNG exports [16] - Management highlighted the flexibility of their capital program, allowing for adjustments based on market conditions and gas prices [29][30] Other Important Information - The company issued its inaugural investment-grade bonds, providing substantial flexibility alongside free cash flow generation [5] - The acquisition of HG Energy is expected to enhance the company's competitive advantage in the region due to increased production and improved cost structure [18][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth capital and in-basin demand - Management indicated that maintaining a steady state program with three rigs and two completion crews would result in growth, with flexibility to defer capital expenditures based on gas prices [28][30] Question: Free cash flow usage and debt targets - Management stated there are no specific debt targets, but they are positioned to be opportunistic in share buybacks while also focusing on debt reduction [32][33] Question: Synergies from the HG deal - Management reported that synergies from the HG acquisition are better than expected, with improvements in cost structure and local gas demand [36][37] Question: Production ramp and acquired assets - Management clarified that the production ramp is as expected, with a forecast of 4.1 Bcfe per day for 2026 and potential growth to 4.5 Bcfe per day in 2027 [43][44] Question: NGL pricing and export capacity - Management noted that international pricing is driving forecasts for C3 prices, with ongoing debottlenecking in the Gulf Coast expected to improve export capacity [46][47] Question: Winter gas realizations and hedging - Management confirmed that they participated in favorable pricing during winter and are considering layering in incremental hedges for 2027 [52][54] Question: Cost structure changes - Management indicated a potential $0.25 improvement in cost structure, with variable components affecting costs based on natural gas prices [60][61] Question: Power supply deals and demand - Management highlighted ongoing conversations for gas supply to utilities and data centers, indicating strong demand growth in the region [64][102]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company generated over $750 million in free cash flow, which was used to reduce debt by over $300 million, repurchase $136 million of stock, and invest more than $250 million in acquisitions [17][18] - The company achieved a new record of 19 stages per day for a single completion crew in Q4 2025, with an average of over 14 stages per day for the year, representing an 8% increase from 2024 [17] - The drilling team averaged under 5 drilling days per 10,000 feet, which was 4% faster than the 2024 average [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The HG Energy acquisition added 385,000 net acres and over 400 drilling locations, extending the core inventory life by 5 years [4] - The transaction is expected to lower the company's cost structure by nearly 10%, which will further reduce break-even prices [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The NGL market faced headwinds in 2025, with propane inventories higher than expected due to trade tensions and operational issues at export terminals [6][7] - Despite these challenges, demand for propane remained strong, with storage levels expected to return to normal by the end of 2026 [9] - Natural gas demand was robust, with residential and commercial demand averaging nearly 42 BCF per day during winter, resulting in a significant increase compared to the five-year average [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand its core Marcellus position and increase dry gas exposure to capture demand from LNG exports and regional power plants [4] - The strategic initiatives include adding hedges to lock in free cash flow yields and reducing cash costs to expand margins [5] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on significant natural gas demand growth expected from LNG and regional power demand [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the successful navigation through winter challenges without any shut-in volumes and the strong performance of both upstream and midstream operations [3] - The company expects to maintain production levels and potentially grow to 4.5 Bcfe per day by 2027, depending on natural gas prices and in-basin demand [19][20] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to generate free cash flow and maintain a strong balance sheet while being opportunistic in capital allocation [18][30] Other Important Information - The company issued its inaugural investment-grade bonds, providing substantial flexibility alongside free cash flow generation [4] - The acquisition of HG Energy is expected to enhance the company's competitive advantage in the West Virginia natural gas and NGL market [15][68] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more color on the growth capital and in-basin demand? - Management stated that maintaining a steady state program with three rigs and two completion crews would result in growth, with flexibility to defer capital if gas prices are lower [26][28] Question: Is there an absolute debt target for buybacks? - Management indicated that there are no specific metrics for debt targets, but they are positioned to be opportunistic in buying back shares regardless of debt levels [30] Question: What are the synergies expected from the HG deal? - Management noted that synergies are better than expected, with improvements in cost structure and local gas demand contributing to potential upside [34][35] Question: How do you see the production ramp this year? - Management clarified that the production ramp is as expected, with a forecast of 4.1 Bcfe per day for 2026, increasing to 4.3 Bcfe per day in 2027 [40][41] Question: What is the outlook for PDH in China? - Management mentioned that PDH utilization is currently at 65%-70%, with additional plants expected to come online in 2026, contributing to demand growth [85] Question: How will the growth option impact your cost structure? - Management confirmed that the growth option will maintain a flat maintenance capital while allowing for significant production growth [80]

Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 2 2026 Guidance 2026 Guidance & Hedge Position Legal Disclaimer This presentation includes "forward-looking statements." Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AR's control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activities, events or developments AR expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, such as those regarding our financial s ...

Core Insights - Antero Resources reported $1.41 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 20.8%, with an EPS of $0.42 compared to $0.58 a year ago, indicating a decline in earnings per share [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.31 billion by 7.87%, while the EPS fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.52 by 19.89% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Average Net Production per day for Oil was 8,217 BBL/D, below the five-analyst average estimate of 8,929.26 BBL/D [4] - Average realized price for Natural Gas was $3.72 per thousand cubic feet, slightly below the estimated $3.75 [4] - Average Net Production per day for Natural Gas was 2,265 million cubic feet, closely matching the estimate of 2,265.45 million cubic feet [4] - Combined Natural Gas Equivalent production was 3,511 MMcfe/D, slightly above the estimate of 3,501.71 MMcfe/D [4] Revenue Breakdown - Natural gas sales amounted to $773.6 million, below the three-analyst average estimate of $795.74 million, but represented a year-over-year increase of 42.3% [4] - Marketing revenue was $31.7 million, slightly above the estimate of $31.06 million, but showed a year-over-year decline of 6.7% [4] - Oil sales generated $34.77 million, exceeding the estimate of $32.85 million, but reflected a significant year-over-year decrease of 29.2% [4] - Natural gas liquids sales reached $474.26 million, surpassing the estimate of $435.23 million, with a year-over-year decline of 14.7% [4] Stock Performance - Antero Resources shares returned +4% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which saw a -0.3% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]