The U.S. Energy Department's latest inventory report showed a higher-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies. Following the year’s first build, futures ended the week down.Notwithstanding the weekly dip, natural gas prices remain resilient, driven by limited production growth and strong global demand. Trading around $4 after hitting its highest level since December 2022 earlier this month, the market remains firm. Given this backdrop, investors may focus on stocks such as Antero Resources (AR) , Cote ...

Industry Overview - The U.S. Energy Department reported a larger-than-expected decrease in natural gas supplies, with stockpiles falling by 62 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended March 7, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 44 Bcf depletion [3] - Total natural gas stocks are now at 1,698 Bcf, which is 628 Bcf (27%) below the 2024 level and 230 Bcf (11.9%) lower than the five-year average [4] - Natural gas prices remain resilient despite a weekly dip, trading above $4 after reaching a two-year high of $4.491, driven by limited production growth and strong global demand [2][6] Company Focus - **Antero Resources (AR)**: A leading natural gas producer with a strong production outlook, reporting 316 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) in the most recent quarter, over 60% of which was natural gas. The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a remarkable 1,381% year-over-year growth in 2025 earnings per share [11][12] - **Coterra Energy (CTRA)**: An independent upstream operator with a focus on natural gas, owning approximately 183,000 net acres in the Marcellus Shale. The expected earnings per share growth rate for Coterra is 15.5%, compared to the industry's 12.3% [13][14] - **Gulfport Energy (GPOR)**: A natural gas-focused exploration and production company that has emerged from bankruptcy with a stronger balance sheet. The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a 57.1% year-over-year growth in 2025 earnings per share [15][16]

Industry Overview - Natural gas prices have surged more than twofold over the past year and are expected to maintain momentum into 2025 due to cold weather, supply constraints, and strong global demand [1] - The U.S. has become the world's largest LNG supplier, with exports averaging 16 billion cubic feet per day, contributing to price strength [5] - Europe is facing a severe supply crunch, with gas storage levels at 40% full compared to 60% in 2024, necessitating higher LNG imports throughout 2025 [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Natural gas markets tightened in 2024 due to severe winter conditions and limited production growth, with working gas stocks 5% below the five-year average by late February 2025 [3] - U.S. natural gas production rebounded to 105 billion cubic feet per day by late February 2025, but producers are cautious about ramping up output, maintaining capital discipline [7] Company Opportunities - Antero Resources, Coterra Energy, and Gulfport Energy are well-positioned to benefit from higher natural gas prices and increased drilling activity, with upward revisions to their 2025 EPS estimates [2] - Antero Resources has a projected 1,381% year-over-year growth in 2025 EPS, with a recent 14.3% increase in estimates [11] - Coterra Energy's expected EPS growth rate for three to five years is 15.5%, with an 18.6% increase in 2025 EPS estimates [13] - Gulfport Energy's 2025 EPS indicates a 42.4% year-over-year growth, with a recent 6.4% increase in estimates [15] Market Outlook - The EIA expects U.S. inventories to be 4% below the five-year average at the end of the withdrawal season in March, supporting continued price strength [8] - Natural gas prices are anticipated to remain close to $4 per MMBtu in the near term due to rising summer electricity demand and sustained LNG exports [8]

Industry Overview - The United States has become the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), surpassing Australia and Qatar in 2023, with exports estimated at 12.5 billion cubic feet per day or 92 million metric tons annually [1] - The U.S. is also the largest natural gas exporter, overtaking Russia and Norway since 2024, partly due to Ukraine's cancellation of its Russian gas export transit deal [1] Cheniere Energy - Cheniere Energy Inc. is recognized as the largest LNG producer in the U.S., operating two facilities: Sabine Pass LNG with a capacity of 30 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) and Corpus Christi LNG with a capacity of 15 MTPA, with an additional 10 MTPA under construction [2] - The total current capacity of Cheniere is 45 MTPA, with expectations of market demand reaching 230 MTPA over the next decade [2] - For Q4 2024, Cheniere reported an EPS of $0.33, exceeding consensus estimates by $1.62, while revenue fell 8% year-over-year to $0.44 billion [3] - Cheniere anticipates adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2025 to be between $6.5 billion and $7 billion, with distributable cash flow expected between $4.1 billion and $4.6 billion [4] - The company is developing the SPL Expansion Project, which aims to add up to 20 MTPA of LNG production capacity [5] Antero Resources - Antero Resources Co. is an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company benefiting from rising natural gas demand, which reached a record 50.6 billion cubic feet per day in January 2025 for residential and commercial heating [6] - Antero primarily develops natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the Utica and Marcellus Shale formations, with a significant portion of production transported to the Gulf Coast LNG Corridor [7][8] - In Q4, Antero reported an EPS of $0.58, surpassing consensus estimates by $0.29, with revenues falling 2.13% year-over-year to $1.17 billion [9] - For 2025, Antero raised its maintenance production target to 3.35 to 3.45 billion cubic feet equivalent per day, driven by growth in liquids production [10] - Antero's CFO noted that 75% of their natural gas is delivered to the LNG corridor along the Gulf Coast, which is expected to enhance price realizations [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, Antero Resources Corporation achieved a full drilling and completion capital of $620 million, which is $55 million or 8% below initial guidance and nearly $300 million below 2023's CapEx of $909 million [7] - Production averaged over 3.4 Bcf equivalent per day, which is 2% above initial guidance [8] - The company generated positive free cash flow of $73 million in 2024 despite being unhedged at a $2.27 natural gas price [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Drilling efficiency improved, reducing the average time to drill a well to just ten days in 2024, a nearly 30% improvement compared to 2022 [9] - Completion stages per day averaged 12.2 in 2024, with a record of 13.2 in Q4 2024, representing a 53% increase compared to 2022 [10] - The company expects production to be 50 million cubic feet per day higher than prior targets for 2025 [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Antero realized a $1.41 per barrel premium over Mont Belvieu in 2024, with Q4 2024 averaging $3.09 per barrel [12] - U.S. propane exports averaged 1.8 million barrels per day year-to-date in 2025, a 9% increase compared to the same period last year [16] - Natural gas storage is currently 111 Bcf below the five-year average, indicating a tightening inventory [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to use free cash flow to first pay down its credit facility and senior notes, then return to a 50-50 debt reduction and capital return strategy via share buybacks [33] - Antero is focused on maintaining a low-cost structure and maximizing exposure to rising prices through its firm transportation agreements [34] - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from increasing LNG demand and expects significant calls on natural gas over the next twelve months [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving higher prices in 2025 and 2026 due to supportive fundamentals and low rig counts [22] - The company anticipates a substantial year-over-year increase in free cash flow for 2025, projecting over $1.6 billion based on current strip pricing [32] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining flexibility in capital structure and the potential for share buybacks once debt is reduced [80] Other Important Information - Antero's marketing strategy has enhanced pricing by selling more products to key distributors and end users [15] - The company has locked in almost all domestic propane sales and a significant portion of export sales at attractive premiums [15] - The anticipated startup of new LNG facilities is expected to significantly increase demand for natural gas [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the gas macro situation and Antero's ability to respond to increased demand? - Management indicated that the ability to grow production is limited to local basins and emphasized their strategy of not selling local gas [39] Question: Can you provide details on the drilling partnership mentioned in the 10-K? - Management confirmed the continuation of a drilling JV that allows for operational efficiencies and a consistent program [42] Question: What is the current status of your well completions and production guidance? - Management confirmed that they brought on sixteen wells in January and have one duct pad with seven wells expected in Q3 [48] Question: How do you view your inventory and midstream runway? - Management stated that they have a strong inventory and are well-positioned for long-term liquids drilling [58] Question: What are your thoughts on return of capital and share buybacks? - Management plans to focus on debt repayment first, followed by a balanced approach to share buybacks [80]

Core Viewpoint - Antero Resources has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the importance of changing earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Antero Resources is projected to earn $3.11 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of 1381% [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Antero Resources has risen by 46.3%, indicating a positive trend in earnings expectations [8]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank stock-rating system categorizes stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The upgrade of Antero Resources to Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting a strong potential for price appreciation in the near term [10].

Antero Resources (AR) Q4 2024 Earnings Call February 13, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Brendan Krueger - CFO, VP of Finance & TreasurerPaul Rady - President, Chairman & CEODavid Cannelongo - Senior Vice President of Liquids Marketing & TransportationJustin Fowler - Senior Vice President of Gas Marketing and TransportationMichael Kennedy - SVP, Finance & CFOArun Jayaram - Vice PresidentJohn Freeman - Managing DirectorCarlos Escalante - Senior AssociateNeil Mehta - Head of Americas Natural Resources E ...

February 13th, 2025 Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call Presentation Legal Disclaimer This presentation includes "forward-looking statements." Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AR's control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activities, events or developments AR expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, such as those regar ...

Core Viewpoint - Antero Resources Corporation reported strong adjusted earnings for Q4 2024, exceeding estimates, but total revenues fell short of expectations and decreased year-over-year Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings for Q4 2024 were 48 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 26 cents and up from 22 cents a year ago [1] - Total quarterly revenues were $1,169 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,173 million and down from $1,194 million year-over-year [1] Production Overview - Total production in Q4 was 316 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), slightly higher than 315 Bcfe a year ago and above the estimate of 310 Bcfe [3] - Natural gas production was 196 Bcf, down 7% from 210 Bcf year-over-year and below the estimate of 201 Bcf [3] - Oil production amounted to 850 thousand barrels (MBbls), a decrease of 26% from 1,154 MBbls a year ago and below the estimate of 1,083 MBbls [4] - C2 Ethane production increased by 58% to 8,518 MBbls from 5,406 MBbls year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of 6,571 MBbls [4] - C3+ NGLs production was 10,563 MBbls, down 3% from 10,918 MBbls a year ago but higher than the estimate of 10,534 MBbls [5] Price Realizations - Weighted natural-gas-equivalent price realization was $3.64 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe), up from $3.52 year-over-year and above the estimate of $3.47 [6] - Realized natural gas prices increased 2% to $2.77 per Mcf from $2.72 a year ago, exceeding the estimate of $2.62 [6] - Oil price realization was $57.80 per barrel (Bbl), down from $64.77 year-over-year and below the estimate of $59.54 [7] - Realized price for C3+ NGLs rose to $44.29 per Bbl from $37.72 a year ago, above the estimate of $41.41 [7] - Realized price for C2 Ethane increased to $10.31 per Bbl from $9.13 year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of $10.23 [7] Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses increased to $1,110 million from $1,055 million year-over-year, above the estimate of $1,071 million [8] - Average lease operating costs were 10 cents per Mcfe, up 11% from 9 cents a year ago [8] - Gathering and compression costs were 71 cents per Mcfe, 3% higher than the prior year [8] - Transportation expenses declined 3% year-over-year to 60 cents per Mcfe, while processing costs increased 8% to 85 cents per Mcfe [9] Capital Expenditures and Financials - In Q4, Antero Resources spent $120 million on drilling and completion operations [10] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had no cash and cash equivalents and a long-term debt of $1.49 billion [10] Guidance - For 2025, Antero Resources expects its drilling and completion capital budget to be between $650 million and $700 million [11] - The company estimates production to be in the range of 3.35-3.45 Bcfe per day, driven by higher liquid volumes [11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the analysis of oil and gas companies, specifically highlighting Antero Resources and its competitive position in the market [1][2] - Cold weather patterns are beneficial for Antero Resources as they reduce supply, potentially increasing prices [2] - The oil and gas industry is characterized as a cyclical sector, requiring patience and experience for successful investment [2] Group 2 - The analysis includes a comprehensive breakdown of companies' balance sheets, competitive positions, and development prospects [1] - The service provided offers insights that are not available on free platforms, indicating a value-added component for subscribers [1]