2025 Guidance - Antero Resources (AR) projects net production between 3.35 and 3.45 Bcfe/d [7] - Net natural gas production is expected to be between 2.16 and 2.20 Bcf/d [7] - Net liquids production is guided to be between 198,000 and 208,000 Bbl/d [7] - C3+ NGL production is projected to be between 113,000 and 117,000 Bbl/d [7] - Ethane production is expected to be between 76,000 and 80,000 Bbl/d [7] - Oil production is guided to be between 9,000 and 11,000 Bbl/d [7] - D&C capital expenditures are estimated to be between $650 million and $700 million [7] - Land capital expenditures are projected to be between $75 million and $100 million [7] Natural Gas Hedge Position - In 2025, AR has production payment swaps (VPP) for 44,000 MMBtu/d at a weighted average index price of $2.61/MMBtu [8] - For 2025, AR has NYMEX Henry Hub swaps for 100,000 MMBtu/d at a weighted average index price of $3.12/MMBtu [9] - In 2026, AR has NYMEX Henry Hub Collars for 320,000 MMBtu/d with a floor price of $3.07/MMBtu and a ceiling price of $5.96/MMBtu [9]

Group 1 - Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) reported a strong first quarter, benefiting from a cold winter that supported natural gas prices, which had previously been weak [2] - The oil and gas industry is characterized as a boom-bust, cyclical sector, requiring patience and experience for successful investment [2] Group 2 - The analysis of oil and gas companies focuses on identifying undervalued firms by examining their balance sheets, competitive positions, and development prospects [1]

Core Viewpoint - Antero Resources reported quarterly earnings of $0.78 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.90 per share, representing an earnings surprise of -13.33% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $1.35 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.42%, compared to $1.12 billion in revenues a year ago [2] - Over the last four quarters, Antero Resources has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once [2] Stock Performance - Antero Resources shares have increased by approximately 3.2% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by -5.5% [3] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.72 on revenues of $1.34 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.60 on revenues of $5.64 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Antero Resources is currently favorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry is currently in the bottom 25% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8]

Financial Performance - Net income was $208 million, and Adjusted Net Income was $247 million, reflecting increases of 110% and 75% in Adjusted EBITDAX to $549 million[4]. - Free Cash Flow for the quarter was $337 million, significantly up from $15.5 million in the prior year[5][6]. - Total revenue increased from $1,122,271 in Q1 2024 to $1,352,707 in Q1 2025, representing a growth of 20.5%[43]. - Natural gas sales surged from $474,133 in Q1 2024 to $780,005 in Q1 2025, an increase of 64.3%[43]. - Operating income rose significantly from $47,739 in Q1 2024 to $271,472 in Q1 2025, marking an increase of 468.5%[43]. - Net income attributable to Antero Resources Corporation increased from $22,730 in Q1 2024 to $207,971 in Q1 2025, a growth of 817.5%[43]. - Cash flows from operating activities improved from $261,610 in Q1 2024 to $457,739 in Q1 2025, an increase of 75.0%[45]. - Adjusted EBITDAX for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $549,428, up from $262,087 in the same period of 2024, indicating a 109% growth[33]. - For the twelve months ended March 31, 2025, Adjusted EBITDAX totaled $1,219,666, compared to $1,282,398 for the previous year, showing a decrease of about 4.9%[34]. Production and Operations - Net production averaged 3.4 Bcfe/d, including 2.2 Bcf/d of natural gas and 206 MBbl/d of liquids[4]. - The company placed 26 horizontal Marcellus wells to sales with an average rate of 32 MMcfe/d per well[16]. - Drilling and completion capital expenditures were $157 million, 16% lower than the prior year[4][17]. - Daily combined production decreased by 1%, from 3,426 MMcfe/d in Q1 2024 to 3,397 MMcfe/d in Q1 2025[47]. - Drilling and completion costs (cash basis) decreased from $188,905 in Q1 2024 to $175,134 in Q1 2025, a reduction of approximately 7.5%[36]. Debt and Equity - Total debt was reduced by $204 million during the quarter, bringing net debt down to $1.29 billion[8]. - Antero purchased 2.7 million shares for approximately $92 million year-to-date, with $1 billion capacity remaining in the share repurchase program[7]. - Stockholders' equity increased from $7,021,650 in December 2024 to $7,218,374 in March 2025, an increase of 2.8%[41]. - Total liabilities decreased from $5,793,517 in December 2024 to $5,640,538 in March 2025, a reduction of 2.6%[41]. Costs and Expenses - Lease operating costs per Mcfe increased by 22%, from $0.09 in Q1 2024 to $0.11 in Q1 2025[47]. - Total operating expenses increased by 1%, from $1,074,532 in Q1 2024 to $1,081,235 in Q1 2025[46]. - Interest expense, net, decreased from $30,187 in Q1 2024 to $23,368 in Q1 2025, a decline of approximately 22.5%[33]. Market and Pricing - Realized a pre-hedge natural gas equivalent price of $4.55 per Mcfe, a $0.90 per Mcfe premium to NYMEX[12]. - Average realized price for natural gas increased by 67%, from $2.36 per Mcf in Q1 2024 to $3.95 per Mcf in Q1 2025[47]. - Antero entered into firm sales agreements for approximately 90% of its LPG export volumes for 2025 at a double-digit premium to Mont Belvieu pricing[9]. Other Financial Metrics - The company reported a commodity derivative fair value loss of $71,671 in Q1 2025 compared to a gain of $9,446 in Q1 2024[43]. - The company experienced unrealized commodity derivative gains of $60,654 in Q1 2025, compared to losses of $8,078 in Q1 2024, indicating a significant turnaround[33]. - Changes in current assets and liabilities resulted in a negative impact of $81,748 for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to a positive impact of $14,361 in the same period of 2024[33]. - The company cautions that forward-looking statements are subject to risks including commodity price volatility and regulatory changes, which could materially affect future performance[37].

Financial Performance - The company experienced total revenue of $1,122.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $1,073.8 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting an increase in natural gas and NGL sales[153]. - The company reported natural gas sales of $474.1 million, NGL sales of $517.9 million, and oil sales of $64.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025[153]. - Natural gas sales revenue increased from $474 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024, to $780 million for the same period in 2025, a rise of $306 million or 65%[161]. - NGLs sales revenue rose from $518 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024, to $561 million for the same period in 2025, an increase of $43 million or 8%[162]. - Oil sales revenue decreased from $65 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024, to $50 million for the same period in 2025, a decline of $15 million or 22%[165]. - Operating income for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $271 million, compared to $288 million for the same period in 2024, a decrease of $17 million or 6%[155]. - Net cash provided by operating activities increased from $261.6 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024 to $457.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, an increase of 75%[188]. Commodity Prices and Production - Average benchmark natural gas prices increased from $2.24 per Mcf in Q1 2024 to $3.65 per Mcf in Q1 2025, while oil prices decreased from $76.96 per Bbl to $71.42 per Bbl[143]. - Average realized price for natural gas increased from $2.36 per Mcf in Q1 2024 to $3.95 per Mcf in Q1 2025, a rise of 67%[157]. - Daily combined production decreased from 3,426 MMcfe/d in Q1 2024 to 3,397 MMcfe/d in Q1 2025, a decline of 29 MMcfe/d or 1%[157]. - Approximately 2% of the company's total production for 2025 is hedged through fixed price commodity swaps, with a net liability of $107 million for commodity derivative contracts as of March 31, 2025[146]. Expenses and Capital Expenditures - Total operating expenses increased from $1,038 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024, to $1,081 million for the same period in 2025, an increase of $43 million or 4%[170]. - Lease operating expense increased from $29 million, or $0.09 per Mcfe, in Q1 2024 to $34 million, or $0.11 per Mcfe, in Q1 2025, primarily due to higher oilfield service costs[169]. - Gathering, compression, processing, and transportation expenses rose from $672 million in Q1 2024 to $695 million in Q1 2025, an increase of $23 million or 3%[170]. - General and administrative expenses rose from $40 million to $47 million, a 19% increase, primarily due to higher professional service fees[174]. - Total consolidated capital expenditures for the three months ended March 31, 2025 were $188 million, including $157 million for drilling and completion[194]. - The company plans to complete 60 to 65 net horizontal wells in the Appalachian Basin as part of its 2025 capital budget of $725 million to $800 million[193]. Debt and Interest - The company redeemed $97 million of its 2026 Notes at a redemption price of 102.094% and repurchased $19 million of its 2029 Notes at a weighted average price of 102.725% during the three months ended March 31, 2025[140]. - Interest expense decreased from $30 million to $23 million, a 23% reduction, due to the redemption of Senior Notes and lower average borrowings[184]. - The average annualized interest rate incurred on the Credit Facility for borrowings during the three months ended March 31, 2025 was 6.0%, with a 1.0% increase estimated to result in an additional $1 million in interest expense[213]. Risk and Volatility - The company anticipates continued volatility in commodity prices due to various economic factors, including global supply and demand dynamics and geopolitical events[142]. - The company expects continued volatility in the fair value of its derivative instruments[209]. - Mark-to-market adjustments of derivative instruments cause earnings volatility but have no cash flow impact until the contracts are settled[209]. - The company is exposed to credit risk from several significant customers, which may adversely affect financial results if they fail to meet obligations[211]. Other Financial Metrics - The company held approximately 526,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin as of March 31, 2025, focusing on low geologic risk and repeatability in its drilling opportunities[139]. - The Federal Reserve increased the federal funds interest rate by 5.25% from March 2022 to July 2023 to manage inflation, which has begun to approach the target of 2%[148]. - The company had receivables from the sale of natural gas, NGLs, and oil production totaling $513 million as of March 31, 2025[210]. - The company expects net cash provided by operating activities and available borrowings to meet cash requirements for at least the next 12 months[187]. - The company reported that revenues would have decreased by $37 million for each $0.10 decrease per MMBtu in natural gas prices and $1.00 decrease per Bbl in oil and NGLs prices during the three months ended March 31, 2025[207]. - The company does not require credit support or collateral from counterparties under derivative contracts, nor do they require it from the company[212]. - As of March 31, 2025, the estimated fair value of the company's commodity derivative instruments was a net liability of $107 million, up from $47 million as of December 31, 2024[209]. - The company had commodity hedges in place with five different counterparties, four of which are lenders under the Unsecured Credit Facility[212].

Core Insights - Antero Resources Corporation reported strong first quarter 2025 results, driven by a differentiated strategy in securing firm transportation capacity along the Gulf Coast LNG corridor, leading to record LNG demand and premium pricing for natural gas and NGLs [3][8][9] Financial Performance - Free Cash Flow for Q1 2025 was $337 million, a significant increase from $15.5 million in Q1 2024 [4][8] - Net cash provided by operating activities rose to $458 million, up 75% from $261.6 million in the prior year [5][8] - Total revenue increased by 21% to $1.35 billion compared to $1.12 billion in Q1 2024 [41] Production and Pricing - Average net production for the quarter was 3.4 Bcfe/d, including 2.2 Bcf/d of natural gas and 206 MBbl/d of liquids [8][12] - The realized natural gas equivalent price was $4.55 per Mcfe, reflecting a $0.90 premium to NYMEX [8][12] - Average realized C3+ NGL price was $45.65 per barrel, a $1.66 premium to Mont Belvieu pricing [8][12] Debt Management - Antero reduced total debt by $204 million during the quarter, bringing total debt to $1.29 billion [7][8] - The Net Debt to trailing twelve month Adjusted EBITDAX ratio was 1.1x, indicating strong financial health [7][8] Share Repurchase Program - The company repurchased 2.7 million shares for approximately $92 million from January 1 to April 30, 2025, with $1 billion remaining in the share repurchase capacity [6][8] Capital Expenditures - Drilling and completion capital expenditures for Q1 2025 were $157 million, which is 16% lower than the previous year [8][18] - Antero added approximately 6,000 net acres through land leasing, representing 26 incremental drilling locations [18] Future Outlook - The company expects full year 2025 C3+ NGL prices to average a premium to Mont Belvieu pricing in the range of $1.50 to $2.50 per barrel due to firm sales agreements for 90% of LPG export volumes [9][12] - Antero has implemented a lean gas hedge program for 2026, locking in attractive rates with a floor price of $3.07 per MMBtu and a ceiling of $5.96 per MMBtu [10][11]

Industry Overview - Natural gas is gaining traction as a cleaner-burning fossil fuel compared to crude oil and coal, leading to a positive outlook for exploration and production companies [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts natural gas spot prices to average $4.30 per million BTU this year, up from $2.20 last year [1] - U.S. natural gas demand is projected to increase by 4% to 116 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), driven by rising exports and new LNG export facilities [1] Company Insights: EQT Corporation - EQT's current natural gas production is between 104 to 105 Bcf/day, which is below the projected demand of approximately 108 Bcf/day by the end of 2025 [2] - EQT can generate free cash flows even if natural gas prices drop to $2.00 per MMBtu, indicating strong financial resilience [4] - The company maintains an investment-grade credit profile, positioning it favorably in the current market environment [4] Company Insights: Antero Resources (AR) - Antero Resources is among the top five natural gas and NGL producers in the U.S. and has a lower exposure to debt capital, making it an investment-grade stock [5] - Approximately 75% of Antero's produced natural gas is directed to the export market, positioning it well to benefit from the expanding LNG export market [5] - Antero has sufficient high-quality drilling locations in the Appalachian Basin to sustain production levels for over two decades, enhancing its production outlook [5] Investment Considerations - The favorable pricing environment for natural gas incentivizes exploration and production, making EQT and Antero Resources attractive investment opportunities [3]

Antero Resources (AR) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given its recent upgrade to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This upgrade primarily reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.Individual investors ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Energy Department reported a higher-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, leading to bearish market conditions and significant losses in natural gas futures. Investors are advised to focus on specific stocks in the sector [1]. Inventory and Supply Data - Stockpiles in underground storage rose by 57 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended April 4, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 52 Bcf increase. This is significantly higher than the five-year average net addition of 17 Bcf and last year's growth of 16 Bcf for the same week [2]. - Total natural gas stocks reached 1,830 Bcf, which is 450 Bcf (19.7%) below the 2024 level and 40 Bcf (2.1%) lower than the five-year average. The average total supply of natural gas was 112.4 Bcf per day, up 2.3 Bcf from the previous week, primarily due to increased shipments from Canada [3]. Price Movements - Natural gas prices fell by 8.1% to settle at $3.527 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, following a larger-than-expected inventory build. This marks the fourth consecutive week of inventory increases, which has helped narrow the five-year average storage deficit [4]. Market Dynamics - Concerns over the U.S.-China trade dispute are contributing to market volatility and uncertainty regarding LNG exports, despite solid feedgas flows to export terminals. The market remains cautious as it navigates low-demand seasonal shifts [5]. Company Focus - **Antero Resources (AR)**: A leading natural gas producer with a strong production outlook, having produced 316 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) in the most recent quarter, with over 60% being natural gas. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a remarkable 1,604.8% year-over-year growth [7][8]. - **Coterra Energy (CTRA)**: An independent upstream operator with a significant presence in the Marcellus Shale, where approximately 65% of its production is natural gas. The expected earnings per share growth rate for Coterra is 32.2% over the next three to five years, outperforming the industry average of 19.3% [9][11]. - **Gulfport Energy (GPOR)**: Focused on natural gas exploration and production, Gulfport has emerged from bankruptcy with a stronger balance sheet and a strategy oriented towards free cash flow. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a 76.4% year-over-year growth [12][13].

DENVER, April 9, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) ("Antero" or the "Company") announced today that the Company plans to issue its first quarter 2025 earnings release on Wednesday, April 30, 2025 after the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange.A conference call is scheduled on Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 9:00 am MT to discuss the financial and operational results. A brief Q&A session for security analysts will immediately follow the discussion of the results. To participate in the call ...