Summary of American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM) - **Event**: 2025 Conference on August 12, 2025 - **Key Speakers**: Chris May (CFO), David Lim (Head of Investor Relations) Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - AAM is experiencing strong operational performance, particularly in its Driveline and Metal Forming business units, with sequential and year-over-year margin growth [5][6] - The company is focused on the North American truck industry, particularly in electric vehicle (EV) products, showcasing strength in electric beam axles and electric drive units [7] - AAM is navigating the impact of tariffs by leveraging its USMCA compliance, with over 90% of finished goods compliant, which aids in mitigating tariff impacts [12][13] Acquisition of Dallet - The acquisition of Dallet is seen as transformative, with both companies' shareholders approving the transaction, expected to close in Q4 2025 [5][6] - Post-acquisition, AAM's revenue is projected to double, enhancing its competitive position in the global market [26][27] - The acquisition will diversify AAM's product offerings, particularly in sideshafts, which are agnostic to vehicle type (ICE, hybrid, EV) [28][29] Financial Performance and Projections - AAM reported strong free cash flow generation and is targeting $300 million in cost synergies from the Dallet acquisition, with half of this from purchasing efficiencies [31][33] - The company aims to maintain a leverage neutral position post-acquisition, with current leverage around 2.9x, targeting a reduction to approximately 2.5x [40][42] - AAM has paid down over $1.6 billion in debt since acquiring MPG and plans to continue prioritizing debt reduction while considering capital allocation for shareholder returns [45][47] Electric Vehicle (EV) Market Outlook - AAM has been selective in its EV investments, anticipating a slower adoption rate in North America due to regulatory changes and market dynamics [15][16] - The company views the current EV slowdown as a potential net positive, allowing for reduced R&D spending and solidifying its position in the ICE market, which is expected to remain strong for a longer period [57][59] Competitive Landscape - AAM is focused on maintaining commercial discipline while expanding its relationships with domestic Chinese automakers, which are seen as a growth opportunity [20][21] - The competitive environment remains robust, with AAM confident in its ability to compete effectively against peers like Dana, despite their recent strategic shifts [64] Operational Strategy - AAM is investing in automation to address labor availability challenges while continuing to prioritize its workforce as a key asset [83][84] - The company is evaluating its product portfolio continuously, with potential for divestitures if they align with strategic goals post-Dallet acquisition [72][75] Conclusion - AAM is positioned for growth through strategic acquisitions, operational efficiencies, and a focus on both traditional and electric vehicle markets, while navigating challenges such as tariffs and market dynamics. The company is committed to maintaining a strong financial profile and delivering shareholder value through disciplined capital allocation.

Core Insights - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (AXL) reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 21 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 13 cents, and up from 19 cents in the same quarter last year [1][8] - The company generated quarterly revenues of $1.54 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.51 billion, although this represents a 5.5% decline year-over-year [1][8] Segment Performance - The Driveline segment recorded sales of $1.08 billion, down 3.7% year-over-year, but exceeded the estimate of $1.05 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $148.9 million, a 2% decline year-over-year, yet above the estimate of $139.4 million [2] - The Metal Forming business generated revenues of $598.4 million, an 8.4% decrease from the previous year, missing the estimate of $609.9 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $53.3 million, down 5.8% year-over-year, but beating the estimate of $41.1 million [3] Financial Position - SG&A expenses for the second quarter totaled $100.8 million, down from $105.2 million in the prior year [4] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $91.9 million, a decrease from $142.8 million year-over-year [4] - Capital spending increased to $52.9 million from $46.6 million in the same quarter last year [4] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $39 million, down from $96.2 million in the year-ago period [5] - As of June 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at $586.5 million, up from $552.9 million at the end of 2024, while net long-term debt increased to $2.60 billion from $2.58 billion [5] Revised Outlook for 2025 - AXL revised its 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $5.75-$5.95 billion, up from the previous range of $5.65-$5.95 billion [6] - Adjusted EBITDA is now estimated to be between $695-$745 million, revised from the prior guidance of $665-$745 million [6] - Adjusted free cash flow is anticipated to be between $175 million and $215 million, up from the previous target of $165-$215 million [6] Zacks Rank & Comparisons - AXL currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [7] - Other better-ranked stocks in the auto sector include Ferrari N.V. (RACE), PHINIA Inc. (PHIN), and Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD), each with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company achieved record bookings of $800 million and forecasts total bookings of $5 billion for the full year [12][22] - North America operations generated $2.2 billion in revenue during 2024, with $1.3 billion from U.S. operations and $900 million from Mexico operations [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company launched 23 new programs in Q1 2025, including 14 for battery electric vehicle platforms and 19 for new or conquest business [8] - Electric powered steering accounted for 36% of new business bookings, while columns accounted for 45% [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nearly 40% of total bookings are from China OEMs, indicating alignment with growth megatrends in China [12] - The company is experiencing strong demand for by-wire technology, particularly in the China market [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its motion by wire technology, which includes steer by wire and brake by wire systems, to enhance precision and efficiency in EV platforms [15][23] - The strategy includes reducing fixed costs, optimizing footprint, and improving supply chain efficiency to drive margin expansion [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges ongoing challenges such as a dynamic tariff environment and supply chain restrictions but remains optimistic about strong customer schedules and revenue growth [6][30] - The company is well-positioned to navigate tariff impacts and is actively working with customers to mitigate costs [22] Other Important Information - The company successfully resecured an important column business with a North American customer, which had been lost to a competitor [11] - The company expects to start production of rear wheel steering contracts with leading Chinese OEMs in 2026 [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updates on the latest trend in the North America market - Management noted that year-to-date volumes in North America are performing according to expectations, with strong customer schedules [27][30] Question: Changes in customer order trends due to new tariffs - Management indicated that customer production schedules remain strong and have not changed significantly due to the new tariffs [31] Question: Clarification on USMCA tariff compliance - Management confirmed that for USMCA compliant shipments, there is no tariff if 75% of content comes from North America; otherwise, a 25% tariff applies [33][34]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported $800 million in bookings for Q1 2025 and forecasts $5 billion in bookings for the full calendar year [11] - North America operations generated $2.2 billion in revenue during 2024, with $1.3 billion from U.S. operations and $900 million from Mexico operations [17] - The company expects above-market revenue growth of 200 to 300 basis points year over year for 2025 [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company achieved 23 new program launches, including 14 for battery electric vehicle platforms [7] - Electric powered steering accounted for 36% of year-to-date new business bookings, while columns accounted for 45% [11] - The company secured significant steer by wire bookings, including contracts with a global EV leader and a leading Chinese NEV OEM [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nearly 40% of total bookings are from Chinese OEMs, indicating alignment with growth megatrends in China [12] - The company is experiencing strong customer schedules in North America, with no significant changes related to recent tariff impacts [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on motion by wire technology as a central part of its long-term growth strategy, transitioning from hydraulic to electric control systems [21] - The company aims to expand its motion by wire chassis portfolio, including steer by wire and brake by wire technologies [10][14] - The strategy includes reducing fixed costs, optimizing footprint, and improving supply chain efficiency to drive margin expansion [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged ongoing challenges such as dynamic tariff environments and supply chain restrictions but expressed confidence in navigating these issues [5][20] - The company remains optimistic about the North American market, despite potential volatility due to tariffs [26][27] Other Important Information - The company launched several new programs at the Shanghai Auto Show, emphasizing its commitment to innovative technology [6] - The company is actively working to mitigate tariff costs through changing sourcing locations and negotiating recoveries with customers [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updates on the latest trend in the North America market - Management noted that North America volumes are performing according to expectations, with strong customer schedules in the near term [24][26] Question: Changes in customer order trends due to new tariffs - Management indicated that customer production schedules remain strong and have not changed significantly due to the new tariffs [28] Question: Clarification on USMCA tariff compliance - Management confirmed that to be USMCA compliant, 75% of content must come from North America, and compliant goods can be imported with zero tariffs [30][31]