Market Overview - U.S. equities saw significant gains in Q3, driven by the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of the year, strong corporate earnings growth, and increased market participation [2] - Investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence contributed to substantial gains in technology stocks, particularly among the "Magnificent Seven" [2] - Small-cap stocks outperformed as capital shifted into undervalued market segments, despite ongoing concerns about tariffs, inflation, and labor market softness [2] Company Highlights - Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI) was the top contributor in Q3, with organic revenue, EBITDA, and adjusted EPS exceeding expectations, and a positive outlook supported by demand for smart home solutions [3] - Barrick Mining Corporation (B) experienced a rise in shares due to strong financial results and rising gold prices, alongside a strategic divestiture of its Hemlo Gold Mine for $1.09 billion [4] - ZimVie, Inc. (ZIMV) advanced following an announcement of its acquisition by ARCHIMED, expected to close by year-end [5] - Mosaic Co. (MOS) was the biggest detractor from performance due to an earnings miss, with pressures from lower volumes and rising production costs, although phosphate markets are expected to remain tight through 2025 [6] - Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. (PBH) declined after mixed earnings results and a downward revision to guidance, but plans to strengthen supply through an acquisition of Pillar5 [7] - Schlumberger Limited (SLB) traded lower due to a challenging macroeconomic environment, with pressures from OPEC+ supply increases and geopolitical uncertainty impacting oil prices [8] New Positions and Exits - New positions included Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), which faced pressure due to a delay in closing its $13.4 billion acquisition of AssuredPartners, but is expected to benefit from stronger synergies [10] - Fiserv, Inc. (FI) was also purchased, seen as a leading provider of payment processing and financial services technology, with a recent stock pullback providing an attractive entry point [11] - Exited positions included ZimVie, Inc., Core Laboratories, Inc. (CLB), and Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. (BIO) to pursue more compelling opportunities [12] Economic Outlook - As Q4 approaches, U.S. markets are balancing elevated valuations against emerging macroeconomic headwinds, with the Federal Reserve's rate cut providing some support [13] - Investor sentiment remains positive, driven by AI momentum, although risks related to market concentration and policy uncertainty may lead to increased volatility [14] - There is a belief that small-cap equities may outperform large caps over the next two years, with small caps trading at historically attractive levels [14]

Core Insights - Barrick Mining Corporation and Newmont Corporation are two leading gold mining companies with extensive global operations and diversified portfolios, making them relevant for investors amid rising gold prices driven by economic uncertainties [1][11]. Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have surged to unprecedented levels this year, reaching over $4,000 per ton, primarily due to safe-haven demand amid global trade tensions, geopolitical issues, a weak dollar, and increased central bank purchases [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and concerns over the labor market and U.S.-China trade tensions have further fueled this rally, with gold prices increasing approximately 56% year-to-date [3]. Barrick Mining Corporation - Barrick is advancing key growth projects, including Goldrush and the Lumwana Super Pit expansion, which are expected to significantly enhance production [5][7]. - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, while the Reko Diq project in Pakistan is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually starting in 2028 [6]. - Barrick's liquidity position is strong, with cash and cash equivalents around $4.8 billion and operating cash flows of approximately $1.3 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase [8]. - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 and has a dividend yield of 1.7% with a sustainable payout ratio of 25% [9][10]. - However, Barrick faces challenges with rising costs, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs increasing by approximately 17% and 12% year-over-year, respectively [12][13]. Newmont Corporation - Newmont is strategically investing in growth projects, including the Ahafo North expansion and the Cadia Panel Caves, which are expected to enhance production capacity [15]. - The Ahafo North project is anticipated to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually, with commercial production planned for late 2025 [16]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining has strengthened Newmont's portfolio, generating $500 million in annual run-rate synergies [17]. - Newmont has a robust liquidity position with $10.2 billion in total liquidity and $6.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, alongside a free cash flow of $1.7 billion [20]. - The company has distributed around $2 billion to shareholders and has a dividend yield of 1.1% with a payout ratio of 20% [21]. Comparative Analysis - Year-to-date, Barrick's stock has risen by 103.2%, while Newmont's stock has increased by 131.9%, both underperforming compared to the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's growth of 136% [23]. - Newmont trades at a premium with a forward earnings multiple of 13.91, while Barrick trades at 12.57, representing a 23% discount to the industry average [25][26]. - Newmont's return on equity stands at 17.9%, significantly higher than Barrick's 8.2%, indicating more efficient use of shareholder funds [27]. - The consensus estimates for 2025 suggest Barrick's sales and EPS will grow by 19.4% and 65.1%, respectively, while Newmont's growth is projected at 11.3% and 60.1% [29][32]. Investment Outlook - Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from favorable gold prices, with strong project pipelines and financial health. However, Barrick's higher production costs and declining production outlook may pose risks, making Newmont a more favorable investment option at this time [33].

Core Viewpoint - Investors who withdrew $669 million from the largest ETF tracking gold mining giants appear to have made a wise decision following a significant drop in gold prices, which fell 6.3% on Tuesday, marking the largest single-day decline in over 12 years [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The VanEck Gold Miners ETF experienced a 9.4% drop on Tuesday, the largest single-day decline since March 2020 [1] - Major gold mining companies such as Newmont Corporation (NEM.US), Agnico Eagle Mines, and Barrick Gold (B.US) all saw declines exceeding 9% [1] - Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines lost back over a week’s worth of gains in just one day, while Barrick Gold reversed a month’s worth of gains [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing skepticism among investors regarding the sustainability of the recent surge in gold prices, with significant capital outflows from the VanEck Gold Miners ETF indicating doubts about the rally [2] - The ETF saw its largest monthly outflow in five months, with $668.6 million withdrawn in September [2] - Despite the outflows, the ETF has still risen 115% year-to-date, with Newmont's stock up 131% in the same period [2] Group 3: Expert Opinions - Analysts express concerns that the gold sector's rapid price increases may be unsustainable, with some suggesting that the current market conditions resemble a "blow-off top" [2] - Nancy Tengler, CEO of Laffer Tengler Investments, notes that the current situation in the gold market is troubling, as it has become a "no-risk trade" with no one questioning its valuation [3] - John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, believes that while short-term volatility will remain high, the long-term outlook for gold mining stocks remains strong due to decreasing costs and high gold prices [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Upcoming earnings reports from major gold mining companies, including Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines, are anticipated to show strong performance due to favorable market conditions [7] - Despite the bullish sentiment in the derivatives market, where options trading volume for SPDR Gold Shares reached a record high, there are concerns that a stronger dollar could trigger a sell-off in gold mining stocks [7]

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Gold's Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali has resumed production after a nine-month halt due to a government takeover, following an agreement to restart payments to contractors [1] Group 1: Production Resumption - The Loulo-Gounkoto mine resumed production last week after government management took over in June [1] - The resumption of production is attributed to an agreement reached between Barrick and the Malian government to restart payments to contractors, which had been suspended since January [1] Group 2: Financial Impact - The Loulo-Gounkoto mine is one of Barrick's most significant assets, projected to contribute 723,000 ounces of gold production in 2024 [1] - Barrick was unable to capitalize on the historical rise in gold prices this year due to the government takeover [1] Group 3: Disputes with Government - The disputes between Barrick and the Malian government date back to 2023, primarily involving tax payment disputes and new mining laws [1] - Other companies in the industry, such as Randgold and B2Gold, have resolved similar disputes through negotiations with the government, while Barrick's issues have only recently made progress [1] Group 4: Market Reaction - On Tuesday, Barrick's stock fell by 9.3%, reflecting a broader decline in the precious metals sector, as gold futures experienced the largest single-day dollar drop in history [1]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold experienced a significant decline of 5.4%, marking the largest drop since August 2020, which has negatively impacted gold-related stocks [1] Company Performance - Coeur Mining (CDE.US) saw a nearly 17% drop in its stock price [1] - Harmony Gold (HMY.US) experienced an 11% decline [1] - Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) fell by over 9% [1] - Barrick Gold (B.US) also dropped nearly 9% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have surpassed $4,340 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 2%, which has positively impacted gold-related stocks and ETFs [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold has increased by more than 2% in a single day, reaching over $4,340 per ounce [1] - Leveraged gold ETFs have seen gains exceeding 5% [1] Group 2: Company Stock Movements - Coeur Mining (CDE.US) has risen by over 5.3% [1] - Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) has increased by over 3% [1] - Barrick Gold (B.US) has gained over 3.6% [1] - Harmony Gold (HMY.US) has seen a rise of 0.9% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have increased over 65% year-to-date, reaching nearly $4,350 per ounce, driven by investor demand amid inflation and economic uncertainty [1] Group 1: Investment Sentiment - Central banks and investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset due to persistent inflation, macroeconomic risks, trade wars, and stock market volatility [1] - Analysts and hedge fund founders are recommending significant allocations to gold, with suggestions ranging from 5% to 20% of investment portfolios [5][6][7] Group 2: Warren Buffett's Perspective - Warren Buffett has historically expressed skepticism about gold as a long-term investment, citing its lack of cash flow and value generation [2][8] - Despite his previous criticisms, Buffett made a notable investment in Barrick Gold during Q2 2020, which he later offloaded by Q4 2020, indicating a short-term trading strategy rather than a long-term commitment [4] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with some noting a correlation between gold and bitcoin as decentralized store of value assets [7]

Group 1 - Gold has been recognized as a significant asset for thousands of years, showcasing a remarkable ability to maintain its value [1] Group 2 - The focus is on identifying small cap companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, large cap companies experiencing temporary setbacks, and stable companies with solid dividend yields and growth potential [2]

Summary of North American Metals & Mining Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: North American Precious Metals - **Key Commodities**: Gold and Silver Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Price Forecasts**: - Gold is projected to reach **$5,000/oz** and silver to **$65/oz** in the next 12-18 months, with 2026 average forecasts for gold raised by **18%** to **$4,329/oz** and silver by **29%** to **$54.88/oz** [1][10][11] - Investment demand for gold is expected to increase by **14%** in 2026, similar to the current year [2] 2. **Market Dynamics**: - Key conditions supporting gold price strength include: - US structural deficit - Inflationary pressures from deglobalization - Threats to the independence of the US central bank - Ongoing global geopolitical tensions [1] 3. **Investment Trends**: - ETF purchases of gold surged by **880% YoY** in September, reaching an all-time high of **$14 billion** [2] - Total physical and paper gold investment has nearly doubled, exceeding **5%** of global equity and fixed income markets [2] 4. **Risks to Monitor**: - Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariffs - Potential hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve if economic data improves - Outcomes of the US mid-term elections affecting economic policy implementation [2] Company-Specific Updates 1. **Net Asset Value (NAV) and Price Objectives (PO)**: - NAV estimates for North American Precious Metals coverage increased by **10%**, with average POs raised by **16%** [3][19] - IAMGOLD (IAG) saw the largest PO increase of **49%** to **$16.75** per share, reflecting improved jurisdictional risk [3][15] - SSR Mining (SSRM) PO raised by **41%** to **$18.00** per share, despite an Underperform rating due to uncertainties regarding Çöpler mine [3][15] 2. **Top Picks**: - Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is highlighted as the top pick due to its strong track record and growth projects [4] - Pan American Silver (PAAS) is favored for balanced exposure to silver and gold [4] 3. **EBITDA Revisions**: - Average EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027 increased by **25%** and **18%**, respectively, driven by revised commodity price forecasts [20] 4. **Valuation Multiples**: - Target multiples for IAMGOLD and SSR Mining adjusted to **1.60x** and **1.00x**, respectively, reflecting improved performance and market conditions [15][16] Additional Important Information - The report indicates potential conflicts of interest due to BofA Securities' business relationships with covered issuers [6] - The document includes various disclosures and certifications relevant to the research [5][6] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on industry trends, company-specific updates, and potential investment opportunities and risks.

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation is positioned as a strong investment opportunity as gold prices rise, highlighted by its recent agreement to sell its stake in the Tongon gold mine for up to $305 million [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Barrick agreed to sell its interest in the Tongon gold mine and associated exploration properties in Côte d'Ivoire to Atlantic Group for up to $305 million, with an initial cash payment of $192 million [1]. - The deal includes a repayment of a $23 million shareholder loan due within six months after the transaction closes, along with contingent payments of up to $113 million over the next five years, contingent on gold prices and resource conversions [1]. - The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2025, pending regulatory approvals from the Ivorian government and other customary closing conditions [1]. Group 2: Ownership Structure - Following the transaction, Atlantic Group will become the full owner of the Tongon mine, which has been operational since 2010 [2]. - Prior to the sale, Barrick held an 89.7% stake in the Tongon mine, while the Ivorian government owned 10% and local investors held approximately 0.3% [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - Barrick Mining Corporation, formerly known as Barrick Gold Corporation until May 2025, is a Canadian mining company focused on acquiring, exploring, developing, and operating gold and copper properties [3]. - The company primarily operates through its Nevada Gold Mines joint venture in the United States, the Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic, and the Loulo-Gounkoto and Kibali mines in Africa [3]. - Barrick's main products include gold bullion and copper concentrate, extracted from both open-pit and underground mining operations [3].