Core Insights - Barrick Mining Corporation's stock has shown bullish momentum, breaking above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and gaining approximately 6% in a week due to rising gold prices driven by trade and geopolitical tensions [1][8] - The stock is also trading above its 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend, with a golden crossover occurring on April 9, 2025 [2] Stock Performance - Over the past year, Barrick's shares have increased by 20.3%, underperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 52.6% rise but outperforming the S&P 500's 10.8% increase [5] - Compared to peers, Newmont Corporation, Kinross Gold Corporation, and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited have seen gains of 34.6%, 97%, and 85.3%, respectively [5][6] Production and Projects - Key projects such as Goldrush and Lumwana are progressing on schedule and within budget, which is expected to enhance long-term output [8][11] - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, while the Reko Diq project in Pakistan is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually starting in 2028 [12][13] Financial Performance - Barrick's liquidity is strong, with cash and cash equivalents around $4.1 billion and operating cash flows of approximately $1.2 billion in Q1 2025, a 59% increase year over year [17] - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases, with a healthy dividend yield of 2% and a payout ratio of 28% [18] Cost Challenges - Barrick faces rising costs, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) increasing by approximately 16% and 20% year over year, respectively [19] - For 2025, total cash costs are projected to be between $1,050-$1,130 per ounce, and AISC is expected to range from $1,460-$1,560 per ounce, indicating a year-over-year increase [19][20] Production Outlook - The company forecasts attributable gold production for 2025 to be between 3.15-3.5 million ounces, a decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024, primarily due to reduced output from certain mines [20] - Total gold production fell roughly 19% year over year to 758,000 ounces in Q1 2025 [20] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward over the past 60 days, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 being adjusted higher [21] Valuation - Barrick's stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 10.67X, which is about 23.6% lower than the industry's average of 13.97X, indicating an attractive valuation [21] Investment Recommendation - The combination of production growth initiatives, strong financial health, rising earnings estimates, and a safe dividend yield suggests a positive outlook for Barrick, although caution is warranted due to high costs and a subdued production forecast [22]

Group 1: Company Performance - Barrick Mining Corporation experienced a significant decline in gold production in Q1 2025, producing 758,000 ounces, which is a 19% decrease year-over-year and a 30% decline from the previous quarter, marking the lowest quarterly output in recent years [1][7] - The decline in production was primarily due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine amid a dispute with the Malian government, along with lower output from Carlin and Cortez [1][5] - The company expects 2025 gold production to be in the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces, down from 3.91 million ounces in 2024, excluding potential restarts of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine [2][7] Group 2: Industry Comparison - Newmont Corporation reported an 8% year-over-year decline in gold production for Q1, reaching 1.54 million ounces, impacted by lower contributions from non-core operations [3] - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited saw a modest decline of around 0.5% in gold production to 873,794 ounces, but is on track to meet its 2025 target of 3.3-3.5 million ounces [4] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Barrick's earnings in 2025 and 2026 implies a year-over-year increase of 34.1% and 26.6%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [9] - Barrick is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.8, which is approximately a 21% discount compared to the industry average of 13.66X [10]

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Gold (B) shows potential for significant upside, with a mean price target of $24.39 indicating a 27.9% increase from the current price of $19.07 [1] Price Targets - The average of 16 short-term price targets ranges from a low of $21 to a high of $30.96, with a standard deviation of $2.90, suggesting a variability in estimates [2] - The lowest estimate indicates a 10.1% increase, while the highest suggests a 62.4% upside [2] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about Barrick Gold's earnings prospects, as indicated by a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions, which correlates with potential stock price movements [4][11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 2.2% over the past month, with three estimates revised higher and no negative revisions [12] Zacks Rank - Barrick Gold holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13]

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation is facing a legal challenge from the Malian government regarding the Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex, with a court ruling expected on June 2, 2025, after the government requested provisional administration over the site [1][2]. Group 1: Legal and Operational Context - The Malian government submitted a request on May 8 to impose provisional administration over the Loulo-Gounkoto site, which Barrick contests as lacking legal basis [2]. - Barrick has maintained that the government's actions, including blocking gold exports and detaining employees, are unprecedented and without lawful justification [3][4]. - The company has continued to support its employees and contractors financially despite the suspension of operations, paying wages and maintaining operational support [3]. Group 2: Company’s Response and Actions - Barrick has reached out to the Malian Minister of Economy and Finances to discuss a satisfactory agreement for the release of detained employees and the resumption of activities [5]. - The company has operated in Mali for nearly three decades, contributing significantly to the local economy and social development, and is seeking a fair resolution to the dispute [6]. - Barrick has initiated international arbitration proceedings as per the dispute resolution mechanism outlined in the Mining Conventions [6].

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining stock is considered fairly valued at approximately $18.90, leading to a neutral investment stance given its moderate assessment [1][10]. Financial Performance - Barrick Mining's revenues have grown at an average rate of 2.9% over the last three years, compared to 6.2% for the S&P 500 [4]. - Revenues increased by 13.4% from $11 billion to $13 billion in the past 12 months, outpacing the S&P 500's growth of 5.3% [4]. - Quarterly revenues rose 19.2% to $3.6 billion from $3.1 billion year-over-year, compared to a 4.9% improvement for the S&P 500 [4]. Profitability Metrics - Barrick Mining's operating income for the last four quarters was $4.2 billion, with an operating margin of 32.4%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 13.1% [5]. - The operating cash flow (OCF) for the same period was $4.5 billion, resulting in an OCF margin of 34.8%, compared to 15.7% for the S&P 500 [5]. - Net income totaled $2.1 billion, yielding a net income margin of 16.6%, which is above the S&P 500's 11.3% [5]. Financial Stability - Barrick Mining's debt was $5.3 billion, with a market capitalization of $33 billion, leading to a debt-to-equity ratio of 16.0%, lower than the S&P 500's 21.5% [6]. - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $4.1 billion out of total assets of $48 billion, resulting in a cash-to-assets ratio of 8.6%, compared to 15.0% for the S&P 500 [6]. Valuation Comparisons - Barrick Mining has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.5, lower than the S&P 500's 2.8 [7]. - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio stands at 7.3, compared to 17.6 for the S&P 500 [7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 15.3, significantly lower than the benchmark's 24.5 [7]. Resilience During Downturns - Barrick stock has underperformed against the S&P 500 during recent downturns, including a 48.8% decline during the inflation shock of 2022, compared to a 25.4% drop for the S&P 500 [9]. - The stock fell 42.3% during the COVID pandemic, while the S&P 500 experienced a 33.9% decline [9]. - During the global financial crisis of 2008, Barrick stock dropped 66.1%, compared to a 56.8% decline for the S&P 500 [10]. Overall Assessment - Barrick Mining's performance across various metrics indicates a moderate valuation, leading to a neutral investment recommendation [10][12].

Company Performance - Barrick Gold has returned 17.4% year-to-date, outperforming the Basic Materials sector average return of 6.4% [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Barrick Gold's full-year earnings has increased by 15.3% over the past three months, indicating improved analyst sentiment [4] - Barrick Gold currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting a favorable outlook for the stock [3] Industry Comparison - Barrick Gold is part of the Mining - Gold industry, which has an average year-to-date return of 39.1%, indicating that Barrick Gold is slightly underperforming its industry [6] - Compass Minerals, another stock in the Basic Materials sector, has significantly outperformed with a year-to-date return of 71.1% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5][6] - The Chemical - Diversified industry, to which Compass Minerals belongs, has seen a decline of 14.6% this year, contrasting with the performance of Barrick Gold's industry [6] Sector Overview - The Basic Materials sector consists of 232 individual stocks and ranks 6 in the Zacks Sector Rank, which measures the strength of sector groups based on individual stock performance [2] - The Zacks Rank system identifies stocks with characteristics likely to outperform the market over the next one to three months, focusing on earnings estimate revisions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation and Kinross Gold Corporation are two significant players in the gold mining industry, with current gold prices remaining favorable despite recent fluctuations, making them relevant for investors seeking exposure to precious metals [1][2]. Barrick Mining Corporation - Barrick is advancing key growth projects, including Goldrush, Pueblo Viejo expansion, and Reko Diq, which are expected to significantly enhance production [4][5]. - The Goldrush mine aims for a production target of 400,000 ounces per annum by 2028, while the Reko Diq project is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second phase [5]. - The Lumwana Super Pit expansion in Zambia, costing $2 billion, is expected to double throughput and yield 240,000 tons of copper annually [6]. - Barrick's liquidity position is strong, with cash and cash equivalents around $4.1 billion and operating cash flows of approximately $1.2 billion in Q1 2025, marking a 59% year-over-year increase [7]. - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 and has a dividend yield of 2.2% with a payout ratio of 28% [8]. - Barrick's stock has gained 17.4% year-to-date, trading at a forward earnings multiple of 9.74, which is a 28% discount to the industry average [14][15]. Kinross Gold Corporation - Kinross has a robust production profile and a promising pipeline of projects, including Great Bear and Round Mountain Phase X, which are expected to enhance production and cash flow [9]. - The Tasiast and Paracatu mines are key contributors to cash flow, with Tasiast being the lowest-cost asset and achieving record production in 2024 [11]. - Kinross ended Q1 2025 with liquidity of approximately $2.3 billion and generated record free cash flows of around $1.3 billion in 2024 [12]. - The company repaid $800 million of debt in 2024, reducing net debt to around $540 million, with a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of 14.4% [13]. - Kinross offers a dividend yield of 0.9% with a payout ratio of 14% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of about -0.1% [13]. - Kinross stock has rallied 50.6% year-to-date, trading at a forward earnings multiple of 12.88, which is below the industry average [14][18]. Comparative Analysis - Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from the current gold price environment, with strong development pipelines and financial health [24]. - Barrick is viewed as a more attractive investment due to its higher dividend yield, lower leverage, and favorable valuation compared to Kinross [24]. - Barrick holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), while Kinross has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [25].

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation is committed to sustainable development and economic growth, aligning its operations with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Sustainability Commitment - The 2024 Sustainability Report, titled "Beyond the Horizon," highlights Barrick's evolution into a leader in responsible mining since its merger in 2019, focusing on sustainability-driven growth and community empowerment [2][4]. - Barrick has distributed over $100 billion in economic value to host countries through wages, local business support, and tax contributions over the past six years [4]. - The company has invested more than $200 million in community-led projects, including schools, clinics, and sustainable farming programs, managed by local communities to ensure they meet real needs [4]. Group 2: Environmental Initiatives - Barrick is recalibrating its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions profile and reduction roadmap to align with its expanding production base, aiming for a Net Zero target by 2050 [5][6]. - The company has introduced a new site-level SDG performance framework to track community-focused progress across various indicators such as clean water, education, and healthcare [6][7]. - Barrick's commitment to sustainability is reflected in its operational practices, with 85% of its water intake being reused or recycled, and significant investments in renewable energy projects in multiple countries [7]. Group 3: Economic Impact - In 2024, Barrick spent $7.1 billion with local and in-country suppliers, contributing to local business growth and economic resilience [7]. - The company emphasizes that 97% of its employees and 76% of senior site management are host country nationals, reinforcing its commitment to local community development [7].

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation is committed to sustainable development and economic growth, aligning its operations with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030 [1][2][4] Group 1: Sustainability Commitment - The 2024 Sustainability Report, titled "Beyond the Horizon," emphasizes Barrick's evolution into a leader in responsible mining since its merger in 2019, focusing on sustainability-driven growth and community empowerment [2][4] - Barrick has distributed over $100 billion in economic value to host countries through wages, local business support, and tax contributions over the past six years [4] - The company has invested more than $200 million in community-led projects, including schools, clinics, and sustainable farming programs, managed by local communities [4][6] Group 2: Environmental Initiatives - Barrick is recalibrating its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions profile to align with its production base and aims for a Net Zero target by 2050 [5][6] - The company has introduced a new site-level SDG performance framework to track community-focused progress across various indicators such as clean water and healthcare [6][7] - In 2024, Barrick spent $7.1 billion with local suppliers, promoting local business growth and economic resilience [7] Group 3: Community Impact - Barrick's sustainability efforts are measured by real-world outcomes, such as reducing malaria in the DRC and improving maternal health in Pakistan [7] - The company has achieved a workforce composition where 97% of employees and 76% of senior site management are host country nationals [7] - Barrick has reused or recycled 85% of its water intake, with significant investments in solar and hydro energy projects in various countries [7]

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