Company Performance - BJ's Wholesale Club has returned 18% year-to-date, outperforming the Consumer Staples sector, which has returned an average of 3.7% [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BJ's full-year earnings has increased by 1.6% over the past quarter, indicating improving analyst sentiment [4] - BJ's Wholesale Club holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting a favorable outlook for the stock [3] Industry Context - BJ's Wholesale Club is part of the Consumer Products - Staples industry, which consists of 35 companies and currently ranks 72 in the Zacks Industry Rank [6] - The average performance of the Consumer Products - Staples industry has been a loss of 5.4% year-to-date, highlighting BJ's superior performance [6] - Another notable stock in the Consumer Staples sector is Coca-Cola HBC, which has returned 55.5% year-to-date and has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [5]

Core Viewpoint - BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) is currently positioned as a more attractive investment option compared to Hermes International SA - Unsponsored ADR (HESAY) based on various valuation metrics and earnings estimate revisions [3][7]. Valuation Metrics - BJ has a forward P/E ratio of 24.99, while HESAY has a significantly higher forward P/E of 56.63 [5]. - The PEG ratio for BJ is 2.97, indicating a more favorable earnings growth outlook compared to HESAY's PEG ratio of 7.52 [5]. - BJ's P/B ratio stands at 7.2, which is lower than HESAY's P/B ratio of 15.87, suggesting that BJ is more undervalued relative to its book value [6]. Earnings Estimates - BJ has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive earnings estimate revisions, while HESAY holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. - The stronger estimate revision activity for BJ suggests an improving earnings outlook compared to HESAY [7]. Value Grades - BJ has been assigned a Value grade of B, reflecting its attractive valuation metrics, whereas HESAY has received a Value grade of F [6].

Core Viewpoint - BJ's Wholesale Club is positioned to capitalize on the growing wholesale retail market, which is expected to expand by 50% by 2033, despite facing competition from larger players like Costco and Walmart's Sam's Club [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - BJ's Wholesale Club has over 7.5 million paying members and 255 club locations as of Q1 2025, making it the smallest among the 'Big Three' wholesale clubs in the U.S. [5][3] - The company plans to open 25 to 30 new stores over the next two years, which would exceed the total openings of the previous three years combined [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, BJ's reported net sales of $5 billion, a 4.7% year-over-year increase, and EPS of $1.14, surpassing expectations of $0.91 [7]. - BJ's gross margin expanded by 30 basis points year-over-year, and EPS grew over 34% year-over-year [7]. - The current P/E ratio for BJ's is 25.39, significantly lower than Costco's 55.75, indicating a more attractive valuation [4][16]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - Costco has over 79 million paying members and operates 896 stores, significantly outpacing BJ's in scale and revenue [3][8]. - BJ's comp sales grew less than 3% in Q1 2025, while Costco's adjusted comp sales grew 8% year-over-year, highlighting the competitive pressure BJ's faces [9]. - Despite this, BJ's shares have increased by 27% over the last 12 months, outperforming Costco's 14% gain [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts have a 12-month price target for BJ's at $116.12, suggesting a 7.27% upside from the current price of $108.25 [15]. - BJ's is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% through 2033, indicating potential for healthy competition in the wholesale sector [15].

Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook - U.S. consumer sentiment declined in June, with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropping by 5.4 points to 93.0 from 98.4 in May, indicating growing unease among households [1] - The Present Situation Index fell 6.4 points to 129.1, while the Expectations Index slipped 4.6 points to 69.0, reflecting concerns over job security and economic challenges [2] Trade Policies and Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing concerns over trade policies, particularly tariffs, are a primary driver behind the decline in consumer confidence, as they are perceived as threats to economic stability [3] - Escalating geopolitical tensions have further weighed on consumer outlook [3] Company Performance and Positioning - Companies like Sprouts Farmers Market, Urban Outfitters, Costco, and BJ's Wholesale Club are better positioned to navigate shifts in consumer behavior despite the overall decline in consumer confidence [4][9] - Sprouts Farmers Market focuses on product innovation, competitive pricing, and a commitment to fresh, natural, and organic products, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate indicating sales growth of 13.7% and EPS growth of 35.5% for the current financial year [6][7] Urban Outfitters' Strategy - Urban Outfitters leverages its multi-brand strength and digital reach, with major brands showing momentum across channels, and a Zacks Consensus Estimate suggesting sales growth of 8.5% and EPS growth of 22.2% [11][12] Costco's Membership Model - Costco effectively navigates market fluctuations through strategic investments and a customer-centric approach, with a focus on high membership renewal rates and competitive pricing, expecting sales growth of 8.1% and EPS growth of 12% [12][13] BJ's Wholesale's Growth Drivers - BJ's Wholesale emphasizes membership growth and digital innovations, enhancing omnichannel capabilities and targeting high-growth regions, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate indicating sales growth of 5.5% and EPS growth of 6.2% [14][15]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) has a market capitalization of approximately $444.3 billion and operates 905 warehouses globally, while BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) has a market capitalization of around $15.1 billion with 255 clubs and 190 gas locations [1][2] - Costco's membership renewal rates are high at 92.7% in the U.S. and Canada, and 90.2% globally, contributing to its competitive pricing and operational efficiency [3][4] - BJ's is expanding its footprint and refining its value proposition through localized assortments and digital capabilities, achieving an 8.1% increase in membership fee income in Q1 fiscal 2025 [2][9] Costco's Strengths - Costco's membership model ensures a reliable revenue stream, with membership fee income rising 10.4% year-over-year in Q3 fiscal 2025, and a total of 79.6 million paid household members, a 6.8% increase [4][3] - The company plans to open 27 new warehouses in fiscal 2025, increasing its global count to 914 [5] - E-commerce sales grew by 14.8% in Q3, with logistics deliveries up 31%, indicating strong online demand [6] BJ's Growth Strategy - BJ's focuses on marketing and merchandising, targeting high-growth regions and expanding its own-brand portfolio [8] - The company achieved a 35% increase in digitally enabled sales in Q1 fiscal 2025 and plans to add 25-30 new clubs over the next two years [11][12] - BJ's membership fee income reached $120.4 million in Q1, reflecting a strong membership base with a 90% tenured renewal rate [9][10] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco's current fiscal year sales suggests an 8.1% year-over-year growth, with EPS expected to grow by 12% [14][15] - For BJ's, the current fiscal year sales estimate indicates a 5.5% growth, with EPS growth projected at 6.2% [16] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past three months, Costco's shares have advanced by 7.7%, while BJ's shares have risen by 3.2% [18] - Costco's forward P/E ratio is 51.19, compared to BJ's 25.62, indicating a higher valuation for Costco [19] Investment Outlook - Costco is viewed as a more compelling investment choice due to its global scale, customer loyalty, and consistent performance, while BJ's shows promise through expansion and digital innovation [21]

Core Insights - The previous investment stance on BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (NYSE: BJ) was a hold rating due to high valuation concerns [1] - Recent developments have prompted a reevaluation of the investment approach, focusing on long-term investments while also considering short-term opportunities for alpha generation [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes bottom-up analysis to assess the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies, targeting those with solid fundamentals, sustainable competitive advantages, and growth potential [1]

Retail Industry Overview - U.S. retail sales declined for the second consecutive month in May, falling 0.9% month over month to $715.4 billion, marking the steepest decline since January [1][8] - The decline in retail activity was primarily driven by a 3.5% drop in motor vehicle purchases, alongside notable decreases in building materials (down 2.7%) and gasoline (down 2%) [2][8] - More than half of the 13 major retail categories tracked reported lower sales in May, indicating broader weakness in consumer spending [2] Consumer Sentiment and Economic Factors - Tariff threats and geopolitical tensions are negatively impacting consumer sentiment, suggesting that the earlier spike in sales was a reaction to anticipated economic challenges rather than a sustained spending trend [3] - The current economic uncertainties are prompting a cautious approach among consumers, reflected in the recent retail sales data [3] Investment Opportunities in Retail Stocks - Companies such as Sprouts Farmers Market, Urban Outfitters, BJ's Wholesale Club, and Costco are identified as better positioned to navigate shifts in consumer behavior due to their strategic initiatives [3][8] Company-Specific Insights Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) - SFM is focusing on product innovation, competitive pricing, and targeted marketing to expand its customer base and meet evolving consumer preferences [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SFM indicates a projected growth of 13.7% in sales and 35.5% in earnings per share (EPS) for the current financial year [8] Urban Outfitters (URBN) - URBN is leveraging its multi-brand strength and digital reach, with major brands showing momentum across both digital and physical channels [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for URBN suggests growth of 8.5% in sales and 22.2% in EPS for the current financial year [11] BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) - BJ's Wholesale is focusing on membership growth and digital innovations, enhancing its omnichannel capabilities and customer value [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BJ indicates growth of 5.5% in sales and 6.2% in EPS for the current financial year [12] Costco (COST) - Costco is effectively navigating market fluctuations through strategic investments and a strong emphasis on its membership model [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco forecasts growth of 8% in sales and 12% in EPS for the current financial year [14]

If you invested $10,000 in warehouse-style retailer Costco Wholesale (COST -0.70%) in 1990, you'd have over $400,000 today. Simply put, Costco stock was a life-changing investment for some investors thanks to its incredibly consistent performance. As stellar as returns have been for Costco, one current risk unsettles some investors: It currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation of nearly 60. That's its highest valuation in over 30 years even though its growth prospects have cooled considerably ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Consumer Products – Staples industry is facing challenges due to elevated living costs impacting household budgets, leading to cautious consumer spending and affecting sales across the industry [1][5] - Companies are also grappling with rising raw material prices and increased selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses [1][4] Demand and Strategic Initiatives - Despite the challenges, demand for essential consumer products remains strong, with industry leaders like Colgate-Palmolive, The Clorox Company, BJ's Wholesale Club, and Grocery Outlet leveraging strategic initiatives focused on innovation, cost optimization, and digital transformation [2][7] - Companies are refining operations to optimize revenue generation, enhancing e-commerce capabilities, and innovating to meet evolving consumer demands [7] Cost Pressures and Consumer Behavior - The industry is encountering higher costs across raw materials, labor, and transportation, which are weighing on profit margins [4] - Consumer spending volatility is heightened amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, particularly affecting middle- and lower-income households [5] Currency and Market Position - Many industry players are susceptible to currency fluctuations due to their exposure to international markets, which can impact pricing and profit margins [6] - The Zacks Consumer Products – Staples industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 175, placing it in the bottom 29% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating dim near-term prospects [8][10] Performance Metrics - Over the past year, the industry has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 Index, losing 1.9% against the S&P 500's growth of 9.2% [11] - The industry's current valuation is at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.46X, compared to the S&P 500's 21.89X and the sector's 17.66X [14] Company Highlights - **Colgate-Palmolive**: The company is benefiting from effective pricing strategies and ongoing productivity efforts, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for current fiscal-year EPS at $3.65, indicating growth of 1.4% from the previous year [16][17] - **Clorox**: Positioned for long-term growth with a robust innovation pipeline and effective pricing strategies, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Clorox's current fiscal-year EPS is $7.09, reflecting a growth of 14.9% from the year-ago period [20][21] - **BJ's Wholesale Club**: The company is focused on membership growth and digital innovations, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for current fiscal-year EPS at $4.30, indicating growth of 6.2% from the previous year [24][25] - **Grocery Outlet**: Strengthening its market position through diverse product offerings and expanding e-commerce capabilities, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Grocery Outlet's current fiscal-year EPS is 74 cents, indicating a decline of 3.9% from the year-ago period [27][29]

Group 1 - Zacks Premium provides various tools for investors to enhance their stock market strategies, including daily updates, research reports, and stock screens [1][2] - The Zacks Style Scores are complementary indicators that help investors select stocks likely to outperform the market in the short term [2][3] Group 2 - Each stock is rated from A to F based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics, with A being the highest score indicating better chances of outperforming [3] - The Value Score focuses on identifying undervalued stocks using financial ratios like P/E and Price/Sales [3][4] - The Growth Score emphasizes a company's financial health and future growth potential based on earnings and sales projections [4] - The Momentum Score assesses stocks based on price trends and earnings estimate changes to identify favorable buying opportunities [5] Group 3 - The VGM Score combines all three Style Scores, providing a comprehensive indicator for investors looking for attractive value, growth, and momentum [6] - The Zacks Rank utilizes earnings estimate revisions to guide investors in building successful portfolios, with 1 (Strong Buy) stocks achieving an average annual return of +25.41% since 1988 [7][8] Group 4 - BJ's Wholesale Club has become a preferred shopping destination by simplifying product assortments and enhancing digital capabilities, leading to increased membership signups [12] - The company offers significant savings on groceries compared to traditional supermarkets, with a focus on value for customers [12] - BJ's Wholesale Club holds a 2 (Buy) rating on the Zacks Rank and has a VGM Score of A, indicating strong investment potential [13][14] - The company has a forward P/E ratio of 26.03 and has seen upward revisions in earnings estimates, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.29 per share for fiscal 2026 [13]