Key Takeaways BJ is expected to post 5% higher Q3 revenues, while earnings may drop 6.8% year over year.Membership strength, digital growth and steady demand are likely to have supported BJ's Q3 performance.Higher SG&A and soft discretionary trends may pressure BJ's margins ahead of its results.BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Nov. 21, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenu ...

Core Viewpoint - Evercore ISI has lowered its price target for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings to $85 from $100, maintaining an In Line rating due to near-term margin pressures and slowing comparable-store sales [1] Financial Estimates - FY2025 EPS estimate has been cut to $4.25 and FY2026 EPS to $4.65, with expectations of modest price and wage investments to support market share and inventory turnover [2] - Q3 comparable sales growth is forecasted to be below 2%, compared to Street estimates of 2.5%, with EPS expected at $1.07, slightly below the consensus of $1.10 [3] Margin and Profitability - A 60-basis-point decline in gross margin is modeled as BJ's invests in pricing to strengthen member loyalty, while fuel mix and penny profit pressures weigh on profitability [3] - EBIT margin is forecasted at 4%, down 60 bps year over year, with EBIT expected to be $210 million, representing a 9% decline compared to the prior year [3] Future Guidance - Management is likely to guide for a 1–2% comparable sales growth in the fourth quarter, implying EPS of $0.88–$0.92 versus Street estimates of $0.94 [4] Executive Changes - Recent executive changes, including the departure of Chief Merchant Rachel Vegas to Walgreens, may indicate challenges in BJ's merchandising strategy [5] - Despite improvements in general merchandise offerings, comparable sales in the 2–3% range suggest market share softness relative to expectations for steady 3–4% growth and operating margin expansion [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in BJ's Wholesale Club's earnings despite an increase in revenues, with the actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - BJ's is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.10 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 6.8% [3]. - Revenue is projected to be $5.35 billion, which is a 5% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a stable outlook from covering analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for BJ's is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, leading to an Earnings ESP of -0.34%, suggesting a bearish sentiment among analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict deviations from consensus estimates, but it is more reliable for positive readings [9][10]. - BJ's current Zacks Rank is 3, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat given the negative Earnings ESP [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, BJ's exceeded the expected earnings of $1.10 per share by delivering $1.14, resulting in a surprise of +3.64% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, BJ's has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14]. Industry Context - In the Zacks Consumer Products - Staples industry, Energizer Holdings is expected to report earnings of $1.12 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8.2% [18]. - Energizer's revenue is anticipated to be $831.03 million, a 3.1% increase from the previous year [18]. - The consensus EPS estimate for Energizer has been revised down by 1.7% over the last 30 days, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.22% and a Zacks Rank of 4, indicating challenges in predicting an earnings beat [19].

Core Points - BJ's Wholesale Club is reintroducing its free turkey promotion for the 2025 holiday season, which is a tradition for its members [1] - Members who spend $150 or more in a single transaction from November 1-10 will qualify for a free Butterball turkey [1] - The free turkey coupon will be accessible to members starting November 15 [1]

Core Viewpoint - BJ's Wholesale Club is expanding its presence in Tennessee with the opening of a new location in Sevierville on November 14, enhancing its market reach and customer accessibility [1] Company Expansion - The new club in Sevierville will be BJ's fifth location in Tennessee, indicating a strategic growth plan in the region [1] - The address of the new club is 124 Allensville Road, which is positioned to attract local customers [1] Fuel Station Offering - An on-site BJ's Gas station will accompany the new club, set to open on October 29 at 6:30 a.m., providing everyday low fuel prices [1] - The gas station will also feature BJ's Fuel Savers Program, which offers potential additional savings for members [1] Value Proposition - BJ's Wholesale Club emphasizes its commitment to providing unbeatable value on everyday essentials, which is a core aspect of its business model [1]

Core Viewpoint - BJ's Wholesale Club is donating over $1.2 million to local organizations across 17 states and Washington, D.C., to support families in need [1] Group 1: Donation Details - The donation will assist local organizations nominated by BJ's team members [1] - The funds are aimed at helping families meet their essential needs [1] Group 2: Company Mission - BJ's Wholesale Club emphasizes its commitment to taking care of families who depend on the company [1] - Bob Eddy, the Chairman and CEO, highlighted the company's purpose-driven approach [1]

Core Insights - BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. is significantly enhancing its digital capabilities, evidenced by a 34% year-over-year increase in digitally enabled comparable sales in Q2 fiscal 2025, with a two-year stacked growth of 56% [1][7] Digital Fulfillment and Engagement - BJ's unique fulfillment strategy processes over 90% of digital orders through its clubs, leading to improved efficiency and member engagement [2] - Digitally active shoppers are twice as valuable as traditional customers, contributing to record membership fee income of $123.3 million, a 9% increase from the previous year [2] Membership Growth - The company achieved a membership milestone of 8 million, with higher-tier memberships now constituting 41% of the total base, indicating stronger member loyalty through digital integration [3] - Management emphasizes the importance of digital integration for sustaining growth amid changing consumer behaviors and macroeconomic pressures [3] Competitive Landscape - Walmart is expanding its digital presence, with a 25% increase in global e-commerce sales in Q2 fiscal 2026, and is leveraging AI for personalized shopping experiences [4] - Costco reported a 26.1% increase in digitally enabled comparable sales in September, reflecting ongoing strength in its online channel [5] Conclusion - BJ's faces the challenge of maintaining growth momentum against strong competition from Walmart and Costco while advancing its digital capabilities [6] - The company's hybrid approach, integrating physical clubs with online services, positions it well for long-term opportunities in the evolving retail landscape [6]

Core Points - BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. will release its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 on November 21, 2025, before the market opens [1] - A conference call to discuss the financial performance will take place on the same day at 8:30 a.m. ET [1] - The live audio webcast of the call will be accessible under the "Events & Presentations" section of the company's investor relations website [1]

Core Viewpoint - BJ's Wholesale Club is positioning itself as a key player in the holiday toy market by offering popular toys at competitive prices, aiming to attract early holiday shoppers [1] Group 1: Product Offering - The company is featuring must-have toys from well-known brands such as Disney, Barbie, LEGO®, Play-Doh, and Hot Wheels, catering to a wide range of customer preferences [1] - BJ's is emphasizing unbeatable prices on these toys, which may enhance its competitive edge during the holiday shopping season [1] Group 2: Shopping Convenience - To facilitate early holiday shopping, BJ's is providing free shipping on all toys, making it more appealing for customers to shop online [1] - The availability of shopping through the BJ's mobile app and online at BJs.com/To adds convenience for customers, potentially increasing sales [1]

Group 1 - The author has been a Costco member since 2008 but has not invested in its stock, which is now seen as a painful oversight given the company's performance [1] - The author has a background as a corporate lawyer with an MBA and has been operating a boutique law firm for the last 10 years, focusing on investment transactions and disputes [1] - The author's investment goals include identifying reasonably priced companies with steady long-term growth and uncovering small- and mid-cap companies with potential for exponential growth through fundamental analysis [1] Group 2 - The author believes that educated individuals can outperform the market if they have the right temperament and are willing to learn basic accounting and financial principles [1]