Today on the Joseph Carlson Show, we'll be going over five stocks that were compounding machines. These were some of the best companies in the market and now they're left for dead. No one wants these companies anymore.They have extremely low valuations. They've been sold off. Many of them are 30, 40% down from their highs.It seems like investors are abandoning them. But is there something here. Is this the time we should be buying these five stocks.We'll be looking at it and going over each of them. And I'l ...

Core Insights - The travel sector is facing significant challenges in 2026 due to AI disruption and soaring oil prices impacting airlines and travel operators [1] - Booking Holdings, the largest online travel agency, has seen its stock decline by 23.1% year-to-date, primarily due to competitive pressures from AI advancements [2] Industry Challenges - Rising oil prices are leading airlines to implement fuel surcharges, which may reduce overall travel spending, particularly in short-haul travel by car [1] - The threat from AI remains uncertain, but Booking's extensive relationships with hotels provide a competitive edge that is difficult to replicate [4] Company Performance - Booking Holdings reported a 9% increase in room nights and an 11% growth in gross bookings and revenue, reaching $6.3 billion, surpassing consensus estimates [5] - The company achieved a 19% increase in adjusted EBITDA, amounting to $2.2 billion, indicating strong operational performance [5] Growth Initiatives - Booking's alternative accommodations segment has seen a 9% increase, contributing positively to its growth strategy [6] - The company anticipates low double-digit growth in gross bookings and revenue for 2026, alongside mid-teens growth in earnings per share [6] Market Position - Booking's business model, which focuses on partnerships with independent hotels, has been a key factor in its success, allowing it to maintain a strong market presence [8] - The long-term outlook for travel demand remains positive, driven by consumer preferences for experiences and increasing wealth in developing regions [9]

Core Viewpoint - Booking Holdings is set to execute a historic 25-for-1 forward stock split effective April 2, 2026, which will reduce the share price from $4,117.51 to approximately $165, enhancing accessibility for retail investors [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Booking Holdings reported a revenue increase of 16.1% year-over-year, reaching $6.349 billion, surpassing estimates of $6.135 billion [11]. - The company's full-year 2025 free cash flow was $9.086 billion, reflecting a 15.1% increase year-over-year [11]. - Management has guided for mid-teens adjusted EPS growth in 2026 [2][11]. Dividend and Shareholder Value - A 9.4% dividend increase was announced, raising the dividend to $10.50 per share for Q1 2026, coinciding with the stock split announcement [3][11]. Market Context and Stock Performance - Despite strong fundamentals, the stock has experienced a year-to-date pullback of 22.6% from a 52-week high of $5,839.41, attributed to concerns over consumer sentiment, geopolitical uncertainty, and AI disruption in the travel sector [3][12]. - The consensus analyst target for the stock is $5,802.23, with 30 Buy ratings and no Sell ratings among covering analysts [12]. Historical Context of Stock Splits - The upcoming split is the largest in Booking's history, contrasting with a previous 1-for-6 reverse split executed after the dot-com bust [7]. - Historical data suggests that stock splits do not fundamentally change a company's value but can improve accessibility and liquidity [8][10]. Future Catalysts - Upcoming catalysts include the FIFA World Cup 2026, which is expected to drive significant travel demand [12]. - Investors are advised to monitor Q1 2026 earnings results, room night growth trends, and early booking data related to the FIFA World Cup as key indicators of business momentum [13].

Core Viewpoint - Booking Holdings is set to execute a historic 25-for-1 forward stock split, effective April 2, 2026, aimed at making shares more accessible to retail investors [2][8] Group 1: Stock Split Details - The stock split will adjust the share price from $4,117.51 to approximately $165, with split-adjusted trading commencing on April 6, 2026 [2][8] - This split follows a previous 1-for-6 reverse split after the dot-com bust, indicating the company's significant growth into a leading travel platform [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Booking Holdings reported a revenue increase of 16.1% year-over-year, reaching $6.349 billion, surpassing estimates [8] - The company's full-year 2025 free cash flow was $9.086 billion, reflecting a 15.1% increase, with management projecting mid-teens adjusted EPS growth for 2026 [8] Group 3: Market Context and Investor Sentiment - Despite strong Q4 results and a 9.4% dividend increase announced alongside the split, the stock has seen a year-to-date pullback of 22.6% due to concerns over consumer sentiment, geopolitical uncertainty, and potential AI disruptions in the travel sector [8]

Core Insights - Booking Holdings will hold a conference call to discuss its first quarter 2026 financial results on April 28 at 4:30 p.m. ET, which will be webcasted and available for replay for seven days [1][2] - The financial results will be posted on the company's Investor Relations website at approximately 4:00 p.m. ET on the same day [2] Company Overview - Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) is the leading provider of online travel and related services, operating in over 220 countries and territories through five main consumer-facing brands: Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable [2]

Company Overview - Booking Holdings, formerly known as Priceline.com, has evolved into the world's largest online travel company, initiating a significant 25-for-1 stock split in 2026, marking its first forward stock split in history [3][4]. Stock Performance - Since its IPO in 1999, Booking's stock has appreciated by 753%, and over the past 25 years, it has surged by 30,490% [4]. - The current stock price is above $4,200, making it the first blockbuster stock split of 2026 [5]. Financial Results - In 2025, Booking Holdings reported revenue of $26.9 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $228.06, up 22% [7]. - Gross bookings reached $186.1 billion, growing 12%, supported by room nights of 1.24 billion, which increased by 8% [7]. Dividend and Payout - The company declared a dividend of $10.50 per share, payable on March 31, representing a 9.4% increase compared to 2025, with a payout ratio of 22% [8]. Future Outlook - Management forecasts a revenue growth of 15% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 12% for the first quarter [9]. - Wall Street analysts are optimistic, with 79% rating the stock as a buy or strong buy, and an average price target of approximately $5,802, indicating a potential upside of 34% [10]. Analyst Insights - HSBC analyst Meredith Prichard Jensen has a buy rating with a price target of $7,746, suggesting a potential upside of 79%, citing the company's strong Q4 results and undervaluation [11]. - The stock has decreased by 24% from its peak, trading at about 25 times earnings, which is below its three-year average multiple of 29, presenting a buying opportunity for long-term investors [11][12].

Core Insights - Booking Holdings has received mixed ratings from analysts, with price targets ranging from $4,500.00 to $6,250.00, indicating a cautious outlook on the stock [1][6] - The company reported strong earnings, with an EPS of $48.80, exceeding estimates, and a revenue of $6.35 billion, reflecting a 16.0% year-over-year increase [7] - Booking announced an increase in its quarterly dividend from $9.60 to $10.50 per share, representing a 1.0% dividend yield [8] Analyst Ratings - Jefferies Financial Group lowered its price target from $5,600.00 to $4,500.00 and set a "hold" rating [1] - Wells Fargo reduced its target from $5,954.00 to $5,456.00 with an "equal weight" rating [1] - Mizuho upgraded the stock from "neutral" to "outperform" with a target price of $6,000.00 [1] - BTIG Research maintained a "buy" rating with a price target of $6,250.00 [1] - Morgan Stanley adjusted its rating from "equal weight" to "overweight" and decreased its target from $6,150.00 to $5,500.00 [1] Insider Activity - Director Vanessa Ames Wittman sold 15 shares at an average price of $5,191.15, resulting in a 2.14% decrease in her position [2] - CEO Glenn D. Fogel sold 669 shares at an average price of $4,292.10, representing a 5.04% decrease in ownership [2] - In the last 90 days, insiders sold 2,749 shares valued at $12,571,467, with insiders owning 0.16% of the stock [2] Hedge Fund Activity - Jones Financial Companies increased its stake by 7.7%, now owning 6,914 shares valued at $38,132,000 [3] - Donaldson Capital Management lifted its stake by 59.6%, owning 1,119 shares valued at $6,042,000 [3] - Panagora Asset Management increased its stake by 67.3%, now owning 30,210 shares valued at $174,893,000 [3] - Dynasty Wealth Management boosted its holdings by 229.6%, owning 412 shares worth $2,224,000 [3] - GRIMES & Co WEALTH MANAGEMENT increased its holdings by 339.0%, now owning 180 shares valued at $974,000 [3] - Hedge funds and institutional investors own 92.42% of the company's stock [3] Stock Performance - Booking's stock opened at $4,062.14, down 3.6%, with a 52-week low of $3,765.45 and a high of $5,839.41 [4] - The company has a market capitalization of $128.65 billion, a P/E ratio of 24.45, and a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.96 [4] Dividend Announcement - Booking announced a quarterly dividend of $10.50 per share, payable on March 31st, an increase from the previous $9.60 [8] - The ex-dividend date is March 6th, with a dividend payout ratio of 25.28% [8] Company Overview - Booking Holdings Inc is a global online travel company that operates various consumer brands and technology platforms for travel services [9] - The company focuses on accommodations, transportation, and related travel services through consumer-facing websites and apps [9][10]

Core Insights - Booking Holdings (BKNG) is experiencing strong growth driven by sustained global travel demand, with booking trends being a significant factor in its growth trajectory [1] - The company is seeing steady volume expansion across regions, supported by resilient consumer travel intent and improved platform engagement, indicating broad-based and stable demand [1] Group 1: Operating Trends - In Q4 2025, BKNG's gross bookings rose by 16% year-over-year, with room nights increasing by 9%, suggesting incremental support from pricing and mix improvements [2] - The growth in bookings and room nights indicates a gradual enhancement in booking value per transaction, aided by higher contributions from flights and other travel verticals [2] Group 2: Investment and Strategy - BKNG is investing in demand generation and platform capabilities, focusing on performance marketing and brand spending to capture additional travel demand [3] - Strengthening direct channels is improving customer retention and repeat usage, while expansion into flights and alternative accommodations is supporting higher booking frequency and cross-sell opportunities [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - BKNG faces competition from Expedia Group (EXPE) and Airbnb (ABNB), both of which are enhancing their marketing and platform investments to maintain booking momentum [5] - Expedia Group is focusing on a unified platform and loyalty ecosystem, while Airbnb is capitalizing on demand for alternative accommodations and longer stays [5] Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - BKNG shares have declined by 22.3% over the past six months, compared to a 7% decline in the broader Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and a 15.7% decline in the Zacks Internet-Commerce sub-industry [6] - The forward 12-month price-to-sales multiple for BKNG is 4.42X, significantly higher than the sector's 1.52X and the sub-industry's 1.79X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BKNG's 2026 EPS is $266.94, reflecting a 5.24% decrease over the past 30 days but indicating a year-over-year growth of 17.05% [12]

Company Performance - Booking Holdings (BKNG) closed at $4,237.75, reflecting a -1.23% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.54% [1] - Over the past month, shares of Booking Holdings have appreciated by 5.46%, contrasting with the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 4.96% and the S&P 500's loss of 4.71% [1] Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report for Booking Holdings is expected to show an EPS of $29.5, representing an 18.9% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to reach $5.5 billion, indicating a 15.45% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $266.94 per share and revenue of $30 billion, reflecting changes of +17.05% and +11.46% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Booking Holdings are significant as they indicate shifting near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable business outlook [3] Valuation Metrics - Booking Holdings has a Forward P/E ratio of 16.07, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 15.01 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.98, compared to the Internet - Commerce industry's average PEG ratio of 0.85 [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Commerce industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 162, placing it in the bottom 34% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of industry groups, indicating that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Booking Holdings (BKNG) is currently trading at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, driven by macroeconomic fears and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to the Iran conflict, despite strong underlying business performance and growth potential [1][19][23]. Financial Performance - BKNG's stock price has fallen from $5,839.41 to $4,243.73, a decline of approximately 27%, while the business has shown resilience with Q4 2025 revenue of $6.35 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, and full-year 2025 EPS growth of 22% [2][3]. - Adjusted free cash flow (FCF) reached $7.67 billion in 2025, up from $5.93 billion in 2024, reflecting a 29% increase year-over-year and a doubling of FCF over two years [4][19]. Market Valuation - The current forward P/E ratio of 16.02x is below the S&P 500 average and indicates that the market is not pricing in BKNG's growth potential, which is expected to be between 15% and 22% annually [1][23]. - The combined capital return yield from dividends and share buybacks is approximately 5.5%, which is attractive compared to the risk-free rate of 4.322% from 10-year U.S. Treasuries [6][19]. Competitive Position - BKNG's gross bookings growth rate in Q4 outpaced its main competitor, Expedia, by five percentage points, indicating significant market share gains despite being 50% larger [8][19]. - The Genius loyalty program is enhancing customer retention and reducing customer acquisition costs, which is expected to improve margins over time [9][10]. Geographical Demand - Revenue growth in Q4 2025 was driven by low double-digit growth in the U.S. and Asia, with the Asia market being particularly insulated from disruptions caused by the Iran conflict [7][19]. - The company has 8.6 million alternative accommodation listings, which have grown by 8% year-over-year, integrating various types of accommodations into its platform [14][19]. Future Catalysts - Upcoming events such as the FIFA World Cup 2026 and the U.S. 250th anniversary celebrations are expected to drive significant travel demand, providing a baseline for revenue growth regardless of geopolitical tensions [18][19]. - Management projects adjusted FCF of approximately $8.82 billion for 2026, indicating continued growth potential [4][19]. Analyst Consensus - The Wall Street consensus rating for BKNG is a strong Buy, with a score of 4.42 out of 5, reflecting broad institutional agreement on the stock's undervaluation [22][23]. - Recent upgrades from analysts emphasize the resilience of BKNG's business model against AI disruption fears and its critical role in the online travel landscape [22][23].