① 比特币现货 ETF 的 2024 年成绩单：资产管理规模总计达到 1150 亿美元，目前持有比特币供 应量的 5.7%。但它仍仅占全球所有 ETF 总资产管理规模的约 1%，这表明，加密资产未来仍然 具备巨大的增长潜力。 划重点 ② 贝莱德旗下比特币 ETF 占据主导地位，随着投资者转向低成本选择，灰度曾经的重要地位有 所下降。整体而言，比特币现货 ETF 推动了机构采用，重新定义了市场结构并巩固了比特币作 为主流资产的地位。 ③ 特朗普承诺将美国打造为"加密之都"，并任命萨克斯为加密货币沙皇。随着 FIT 21 法案推 进、比特币储备计划提出，加上监管态度转向，2025 年，加密行业将迎来政策暖春。 RockFlow 本文共3283字， 阅读需约14分钟 2024 年是加密历史上令人振奋的一年。比特币价格创下历史新高，区块链基础设施得到显著改善，稳定币找到了产品市场契合点，比特币和以太坊 现货 ETF 获得批准。与此同时，美国立法和监管环境正在为该行业开辟一条积极的前进道路。所有这些，都为 2025 的持续爆发埋下伏笔。 对美股市场而言，比特币现货 ETF 的面世显然具有重大意义。它们扩大了散户和机构投 ...

Group 1 - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2][3] - The news team covers a wide range of sectors including biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] - Proactive has a presence in key finance and investing hubs with bureaus and studios located in major cities such as London, New York, and Sydney [2] Group 2 - The company emphasizes the use of technology to enhance workflows and improve content production [4] - Proactive employs automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock CEO Larry Fink expressed concerns that President Trump's initiatives to stimulate private sector capital could inadvertently harm the stock market due to potential inflationary pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Fink is cautiously optimistic about the potential for significant growth if private capital is effectively utilized, but warns of inflation risks that may not be fully considered by the markets [2]. - The success of capital deployment in the private sector is crucial, with notable investments such as the Stargate joint venture, which involves a $100 billion immediate investment for AI infrastructure, potentially leading to a total of $500 billion [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Fink highlighted the presence of substantial inflationary pressures that could lead to elevated interest rates, negatively impacting the equity market [3]. - There is a possibility that the 10-year Treasury yield could approach 5% or even 5.5% if inflation accelerates, which would significantly shock the equity market [3]. - The current benchmark 10-year note yield is at 4.62% [4].

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock and the state of Tennessee have reached a settlement regarding a lawsuit that claimed the firm downplayed the influence of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) proposals in its investment processes, marking a significant win for states opposing ESG initiatives [1][4]. Group 1: Settlement Details - The settlement requires BlackRock to enhance transparency, undergo regular audits, provide compliance training, cooperate with the attorney general, improve investor communications, and commit to prioritizing financial interests [3]. - Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti stated that the settlement ensures that retirement funds for Tennesseans will not support ideologies they oppose [2]. - BlackRock expressed satisfaction with the resolution, emphasizing its commitment to acting in the best interests of clients and increasing transparency about its practices [5]. Group 2: Legal Context and Implications - The lawsuit, filed in 2023, accused BlackRock of making misleading statements regarding the extent to which ESG proposals influenced its investments, a claim that BlackRock has dismissed as inaccurate [3][9]. - The settlement does not involve any penalties, fines, or admissions of wrongdoing by BlackRock [5]. - This settlement may set a precedent for other ongoing legal challenges against ESG investing, particularly in the context of a coalition of states that have accused major asset managers of colluding to influence coal production negatively [8].

Group 1: Goldman Sachs Performance - Goldman Sachs reported a significant EPS surprise of 48%, with Q4 earnings at $4.11 billion or $11.95 per share, exceeding expectations of $8.07 [2] - Q4 sales for Goldman reached $13.86 billion, which is 13% above estimates of $12.26 billion, and sales increased 22% from $11.31 billion a year ago [3] - For the fiscal year 2024, Goldman's total sales increased by 16% to $53.51 billion, and annual earnings soared over 70% to $14.28 billion or $40.54 per share [7] Group 2: BlackRock Performance - BlackRock's Q4 EPS was $11.93, surpassing expectations of $11.27, with sales of $5.67 billion, which was 2% better than expected [4] - Year-over-year, BlackRock's Q4 earnings and sales increased over 20%, with AUM hitting a record $11.6 trillion due to quarterly net inflows of $281 billion [5][8] - For the fiscal year, BlackRock's total sales rose 14% to $20.41 billion, and annual earnings increased over 15% to $6.37 billion or $43.61 per share [8] Group 3: Market Comparison and Valuation - Over the past year, Goldman's stock has risen by 62%, outperforming BlackRock's 26% gain and the S&P 500's gains [9] - Goldman trades at a forward P/E of 13.9X, which is at a discount compared to BlackRock's 21.2X [11] - Goldman Sachs holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), while BlackRock has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [11]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock's ETF chief believes that cryptocurrency deregulation under President-elect Donald Trump will significantly boost Bitcoin's performance, potentially leading to another historic year for the cryptocurrency [1]. Group 1: Bitcoin Performance and Market Trends - The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), managed by BlackRock, has seen a remarkable increase of 114% since its launch in January 2024 and is up nearly 8% year to date, coinciding with Bitcoin trading briefly above $100,000 [2]. - Despite the strong performance, BlackRock's ETF chief cautions that Bitcoin is a risky asset, and investors should be prepared for volatility, as a 15% movement is not considered significant in the context of Bitcoin [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments and Industry Initiatives - Progress is expected on the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), particularly regarding stable coins and definitions in taxonomy, which could further influence the cryptocurrency market [2]. - Calamos Investments is also entering the cryptocurrency space with plans to launch the world's first 100% downside protected Bitcoin ETF, set to debut shortly after Trump's inauguration [4].

Group 1 - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Aidan Hall raised the price forecast on BlackRock, Inc. to $1,180 from $1,160 while maintaining an Outperform rating [1] - BlackRock reported fourth-quarter results with revenue of $5.68 billion, exceeding the consensus of $5.53 billion, and adjusted EPS of $11.93, surpassing the consensus of $11.21 [1] - BLK shares responded positively to the results, outperforming peers and the broader market by more than 300 basis points [1] Group 2 - BlackRock is in the early phases of its transformation, with management optimistic about growth initiatives for 2025 [2] - Management highlighted ongoing initiatives to meet the growing demand for alternative investments in the retail channel, including a managed model partnership with Partners Group [2] Group 3 - Management expects core G&A growth in the mid-to-high single digits for 2025, with anticipated G&A expenses of $152.5 million from GIP and Preqin [3] - Core G&A is expected to grow 7.9% in 2025, excluding HPS [3] Group 4 - Management anticipates continued operating margin expansion, projecting an estimated 80bps margin improvement to 45.3% in 2025 [4] - Analyst adjusted EPS estimates slightly for FY25, 2025, and 2026 [4] Group 5 - Revisions reflect higher operating expenses, primarily from compensation and benefits, and amortization of intangibles, partially offset by higher total revenue [5] - Investors can gain exposure to BlackRock stock via Fidelity Disruptive Finance ETF and Spinnaker ETF Series Genter Capital International Dividend ETF [5]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock, managing over $11.5 trillion in assets, is the world's largest investment company, with $3.5 trillion in ETFs through its iShares subsidiary, which offers over 1,400 ETFs, including the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF that has outperformed the S&P 500 since its inception [1][2][10]. Group 1: iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF Performance - The iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF, established in 2001, has delivered better annual returns than the S&P 500, with a compound annual return of 11% since inception [2][10]. - Over the last 10 years, the ETF's compound annual return accelerated to 20.2%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 13.7% annualized gains [11]. - The ETF's top 10 positions account for 55.2% of its total value, with Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Apple being among the largest holdings [4][3]. Group 2: Key Holdings and Their Performance - The top 10 stocks in the ETF generated an average return of 65.5% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500's 23% gain [4]. - Notable stock performances include Nvidia with a 171.2% price change, Broadcom at 107.7%, and Netflix at 83.07% [5]. - The ETF also holds other popular AI stocks like Advanced Micro Devices and Palantir Technologies, which contribute to its growth potential [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Nvidia is expected to perform well in 2025 due to increased demand for its new Blackwell GPUs, which are crucial for AI model development [6]. - Meta is anticipated to have a strong year with the release of its advanced Llama 4 large language model and new AI features across its platforms [7]. - Microsoft and Alphabet are expected to enhance their AI models and continue strong growth in their cloud computing segments, which could positively impact their stock prices [8]. Group 4: Economic Impact of AI - Analysts estimate that AI will add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030, with significant contributions from companies within the ETF [13]. - Tech giants are projected to spend $1 trillion upgrading data centers over the next four years to support AI demand, benefiting companies in the ETF like Broadcom and AMD [12].

Core Insights - BlackRock (BLK) shares increased by 4% following the release of better-than-expected quarterly results, driven by record assets under management (AUM) [1][4] - The firm reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $11.93, marking a 23% year-over-year increase, with revenue also rising 23% to $5.68 billion, surpassing analyst consensus estimates [1][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - AUM surged 15% year-over-year to $11.55 trillion, with total net inflows nearly tripling to $281.4 billion [2][4] - Long-term net inflows contributed $200.7 billion, with $142.6 billion specifically allocated to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [2] Group 2: Growth and Future Outlook - CEO Larry Fink highlighted that this marks the second consecutive quarter of record inflows for BlackRock, with client activity significantly increasing [3][4] - The company experienced 7% organic base fee growth and 12% growth in technology services annual contract value (ACV) [3] - Fink expressed optimism about entering 2025 with substantial growth and upside potential, indicating that this is just the beginning [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics - BlackRock achieved record net inflows of $641 billion in 2024, with $281 billion in Q4 alone, driven by strong client activity and market conditions [7][17] - Full-year revenue grew 14% YoY to $20.4 billion, with operating income up 23% to $8.1 billion and EPS increasing 15% to $43.61 [18] - Q4 revenue rose 23% YoY to $5.7 billion, with operating income up 36% to $2.3 billion and EPS increasing 23% to $11.93 [19] - AUM reached a new high of nearly $11.6 trillion, with a 7% annualized organic base fee growth in Q4, the highest in three years [10] Business Line Performance - ETFs saw record net inflows of $390 billion in 2024, with $143 billion in Q4, driven by seasonal portfolio reallocations and strong demand for digital asset ETPs [34] - Institutional platform generated $74 billion in net inflows, led by $64 billion in active strategies, while retail net inflows were $24 billion, driven by Aperio and active fixed-income funds [35][36] - Private markets saw $9 billion in net inflows, with infrastructure and private credit leading the way, and $13 billion in realizations from private equity, private credit, and infrastructure strategies [36] Market Performance - US clients contributed $385 billion in net inflows, while European ETF platform grew to nearly $1 trillion in assets, driven by individual investors and digital-first offerings [33][73] - Cash management platform saw $81 billion in net inflows in Q4 and $153 billion for the full year, with AUM up 20% YoY [38] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - BlackRock is integrating GIP, HPS, and Preqin to enhance its private markets and technology offerings, expected to contribute over 20% of total revenue [15][16] - The company is focusing on structural growth areas like ETFs, Aladdin, outsourcing, and fixed income, aiming for 5% organic growth through market cycles [11][12] - BlackRock is positioning itself as a leader in blending public and private markets, with a focus on private credit, infrastructure, and technology-driven solutions [63][64] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of AI, low-carbon transition, and evolving debt financing as mega forces shaping the future of capital markets [60] - The company expects 2025 to be a dynamic investing environment, with opportunities in fixed income, private credit, and infrastructure [98][99] - BlackRock is optimistic about market opportunities and believes it is well-positioned to capitalize on structural growth trends [85] Other Key Information - BlackRock returned $4.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2024, with plans to repurchase $1.5 billion in shares in 2025 [30][33] - The company expects to close the acquisitions of Preqin and HPS in Q1 and mid-2025, respectively, adding approximately 2,300 new employees [28][29] Q&A Summary Question: Outlook for Money Motion and Asset Class Beneficiaries in 2025 - BlackRock expects continued momentum in ETFs, private markets, fixed income, and cash, with GIP contributing to organic growth [89][90] - The company sees opportunities in short-duration active fixed-income strategies and private credit, especially in a supportive market environment [94][95] Question: Prospects for Alts in the US Retirement Channel - BlackRock is exploring ways to integrate private markets into target date funds and managed accounts, pending regulatory reforms [106][109] - The acquisition of Preqin is expected to enhance data and analytics, potentially enabling broader adoption of alternatives in retirement accounts [113][114] Question: Client Conversations Post-HPS Acquisition - Client feedback on the HPS acquisition has been positive, with insurance and private wealth channels identified as key growth areas [120][121] - BlackRock sees significant potential to expand private credit offerings globally, leveraging its relationships and technology platforms [122][124] Question: Expense Guidance and Margin Outlook for 2025 - Core G&A expense is expected to grow mid-to-high single digits, excluding HPS, with margin expansion driven by market movements and disciplined budgeting [133][135] Question: Fixed-Income Flows and Investor Allocations - Investors are underallocated to fixed income, with potential for increased allocations to intermediate and longer-duration bonds as rates stabilize [142][143] - BlackRock saw $164 billion in fixed-income flows in 2024, driven by demand across ETFs, index, and active strategies [144] Question: Retail Market for Alternatives and 401(k) Adoption - BlackRock is innovating with managed models and evergreen funds to simplify access to private markets for retail investors [159][161] - The company is working on integrating semi-liquid products and private markets into its $300 billion managed models and SMA franchise [164] Question: Capital Allocation and Share Repurchases - BlackRock prioritizes investing in the business for organic growth, followed by dividends and share repurchases, with $4.7 billion returned to shareholders in 2024 [174][176]