对于加密市场而言，反应迅速且积极。在当前流动性驱动的牛市周期中，投资者迅速抓住鸽 派信号，而鲍威尔的言论恰好提供了这样的信号。 第二大加密货币以太坊盘中一度触及约4880美元，刷新了其在2021年11月的高点4866.40美元，当日涨 幅超15%。自今年4月的低点以来，以太坊价格已反弹超过250%。 除了宏观环境的利好，机构资金的持续涌入也为以太坊提供了坚实支撑。自2024年7月获批以来，美国 现货以太坊ETF管理的资产规模已超过200亿美元。在经历了连续四天的资金流出后，这些ETF产品于8 月21日再度迎来2.876亿美元的净流入。 以太坊的强势上涨伴随着比特币在加密市场主导地位的下降，这被一些市场观察人士视为"山寨 季"（altseason）可能到来的信号。 美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派言论助推以太坊价格周五创下历史新高、突破了2021年11月的前高点。 周五，据华尔街见闻，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话，认为当前的形势意味 着，就业面临的下行风险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要降息。 此番表态增强了市场对于9月份降息的预期，通常宽松的流动性环境会提振投资者对风险资产的需求。 Sygn ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance and potential of gold and Bitcoin as alternative assets in the context of increasing geopolitical uncertainty, exploring their effectiveness as stores of value during unstable periods [3][57]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - Historically, gold has been a reliable anchor for monetary systems, oscillating between the gold standard and excessive debt, leading to inflation and financial instability [4]. - During the Roman Empire, gold and silver were crucial to the currency system, but inflation arose from the dilution of silver content in coins, eroding public trust [4][5]. - Gold's reliability as a safe haven is highlighted during the 1970s when uncertainty in U.S. fiscal policy led to a loss of confidence in fiat currencies [5][9]. Group 2: Characteristics of Gold - Gold enhances portfolio diversification and provides tail risk hedging, making it an important tool for risk management [9]. - In times of economic recession, gold has shown resilience, particularly during periods of high inflation, as seen in the 1970s stagflation [17]. - Gold typically exhibits a stable upward trend in controlled inflation environments, as evidenced during the global financial crisis and early COVID-19 pandemic [17]. Group 3: Bitcoin as "Digital Gold" - Bitcoin is characterized by high price volatility, often experiencing double-digit fluctuations within short periods, contrasting sharply with gold's stability [10]. - Since the introduction of Bitcoin futures in 2017, its long-term appreciation has significantly outpaced that of gold, with a low average correlation of 0.14 between the two assets [10]. - Bitcoin's decentralized nature and limited supply appeal to investors seeking high-growth potential assets that are less correlated with traditional markets [10][57]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Demand - Gold remains a key player in global financial markets, with central banks significantly influencing demand; investment demand for gold increased by 25% year-on-year, driven by substantial ETF inflows [39][40]. - Bitcoin's demand is bolstered by growing acceptance among individuals, businesses, and some governments, with institutional interest rising as they hold approximately 21% of mined Bitcoin [46]. - The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs reached $12.5 billion year-to-date, indicating strong institutional interest, while gold ETFs attracted $16.6 billion during the same period, suggesting coexistence of interest in both assets [46]. Group 5: Supply and Liquidity - Bitcoin's supply is strictly capped at 21 million coins, with a halving mechanism that reduces the rate of new coin production, enhancing its scarcity [24]. - In contrast, gold supply is more elastic, as miners can increase production in response to improved economic conditions, leading to a more variable supply over time [29]. Group 6: Correlation and Market Behavior - Historically, gold has shown a negative correlation with risk assets, making it an attractive hedge during market downturns; however, this correlation has recently shifted to a positive trend [33]. - Bitcoin initially had a low correlation with stocks, but this has increased in recent years, particularly during liquidity-driven bull and bear markets [33]. Group 7: Conclusion - While Bitcoin's performance during crises and increasing institutional adoption suggest its evolution towards a digital safe-haven asset, its primary value lies in its disruptive growth potential rather than directly replacing gold's traditional safe-haven function [57]. - Combining gold and Bitcoin in investment portfolios may enhance diversification due to their low correlation with traditional assets, with gold providing stability and Bitcoin offering exposure to technological innovation and high growth potential [57].

Currency.com首席执行官Konstantin Anissimov补充称，今年全球央行购金步伐明显加快，驱动因素包括地缘政治 紧张、关税以及其他宏观经济不确定性。他强调，"在不确定性环境下，主权机构会选择最熟悉的避险工具，一 种经历了数千年风雨考验的资产，而非仅有几十年或几百年历史的资产。" 智通财经APP获悉，尽管周五盘中出现波动，黄金期货价格仍再度刷新历史纪录，并在2025年的表现上领先比特 币，进一步巩固其在动荡时期作为首选避险资产的地位。 今年以来，黄金与比特币双双多次创下新高，但黄金的涨幅已明显超越比特币。周五早盘，美国宣布对1公斤及 100盎司规格的金条征收关税，推动金价走高；然而，随着市场传出特朗普政府计划澄清进口金条将被豁免关 税，涨幅有所回落。 分析人士认为，黄金领先的背后，反映出在地缘政治紧张与关税担忧加剧的背景下，传统避险资产相较新兴替 代品更具吸引力。虽然加密货币支持者长期将比特币称为"数字黄金"，并寄望其发挥类似作用，目前黄金在危 机时期的避险传统仍占上风。 美国银行资产管理集团高级投资策略总监Rob Haworth表示，"今年黄金受益于避险资金流入的程度，显著高于比 特币。 ...

| < w | 日经225(N225) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 08-01 10:11:01 | | | | | | 昨收 40765.74 | | 41069.82 | 成交额 | 0.00 | | -304.08 -0.74% 今开 | | 41029.84 | 成交量 | 0 | | 上涨 181 平盘 | | 1 | 下跌 | 43 | | 最高价 41064.73 市留率 | | 19.2 | 近20日 | 2.46% | | 最低价 40588.17 市净率 | | 1.98 | 米甘少 | 2.18% | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 | | | | 0 | | 鹽加 | | | | | | 41551.47 | | | | 1.17% | | 4106 | | | | 0.00% | A股市场也低开，三大指数徘徊于绿区，但随后却上演了令人意外的逆转，医药和教育板块逆势上涨， 成为市场焦点，资金如同奔流的河流，寻找新的出路。然而，所有人的目光都聚集在比特币身上。上午 9:16，比特币跌破115000美元，日内跌幅近3%，此前对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant downturn in the Asia-Pacific stock markets and Bitcoin prices, primarily driven by concerns over the U.S. government's tariff adjustments announced by President Trump, which have raised tariffs on several countries to a range of 10% to 41% [1]. Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock markets collectively experienced declines, with the South Korean Composite Index dropping over 3% [3]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan saw a decline of nearly 1%, with Tokyo Electron's stock plummeting nearly 18% after the company lowered its profit forecast [10]. - The Taiwan Stock Exchange's weighted index fell approximately 1.2%, while the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index decreased by 0.94% [11]. Manufacturing Data - Recent manufacturing data from Japan and South Korea for July showed declines, with Japan's PMI at 48.9 (previously 48.8) and South Korea's HSBC manufacturing PMI at 48 (previously 48.7) [10]. Bitcoin Market - Bitcoin prices fell below $115,000, with a nearly 3% drop recorded on August 1 [19]. - In the last 24 hours, approximately 160,000 traders faced liquidation, amounting to $629 million (around 4.23 billion yuan) [22]. - Bitcoin had previously reached a high of over $120,000 on July 14, but it remains a volatile asset amid ongoing regulatory and market risks [25].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the global trade war initiated by the Trump administration on international trade and economic stability, emphasizing China's role in countering these uncertainties and promoting a new international monetary system [1][2][6] - The concept of "super trade war" is introduced, highlighting its distinct characteristics compared to ordinary trade wars, including a larger number of participating countries and more complex trade dynamics [2][3] - The article outlines the weakening of traditional Western reserve currencies, particularly the US dollar, due to the trade war, and the rise of emerging currencies like the Chinese yuan as potential new anchors in the international monetary system [3][5][6] Group 2 - The article identifies four main effects of the super trade war on the international monetary system, including the accelerated decline of the dollar's dominance, increased financial risks, heightened currency volatility, and the dysfunction of international balance mechanisms [7][9][10][12] - It emphasizes the need for a new international monetary system based on digital gold, which could provide a stable value anchor and facilitate fairer global financial interactions [14][15][20] - The establishment of a Central Bank Digital Currency Alliance is proposed as a means to coordinate and regulate the new monetary system, with China positioned as a leading force in this initiative [19][21][26]

Core Insights - Bitcoin price has turned bullish, reaching a historical high of $123,153 before experiencing a pullback due to profit-taking [1] - The market is focused on potential regulatory legislation regarding cryptocurrency in the United States, referred to as "Crypto Week" [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to review three bills aimed at comprehensive reform of U.S. cryptocurrency policy [1] - Analysts suggest that this regulatory framework could pave the way for greater institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies and further drive Bitcoin's price upward [1] - Bitcoin is increasingly being recognized as "digital gold" within investment portfolios [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge in Bitcoin prices, driven by strong market momentum, institutional buying, and favorable regulatory developments, with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of $120,780 per coin [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin's price has surpassed $120,780, marking a significant increase of 2.56% in the last 24 hours [3]. - Other cryptocurrencies also experienced gains, with SUI rising over 12%, Ethereum increasing nearly 3%, and Dogecoin up over 3% [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Bitcoin's Surge - The market has undergone sufficient consolidation, leading to strong upward momentum and a high likelihood of breaking through key resistance levels [5]. - There is substantial buying power, with long-term holders dominating the market and a high degree of locked-in positions, resulting in low selling pressure [5]. - Recent global regulatory developments have boosted market confidence, attracting more capital inflows into cryptocurrencies [5]. Group 3: Institutional Interest - Trump's media company is increasing its investment in Bitcoin, planning to launch a third exchange-traded fund focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum [5]. - Analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $135,000 in Q3 and potentially $200,000 by the end of the year, driven by structural demand rather than speculative trading [6][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - The market sentiment is predominantly bullish, with a higher volume of bullish options compared to bearish ones, indicating optimism about Bitcoin's future [7]. - However, potential macroeconomic risks, such as geopolitical tensions and financial crises, could impact market sentiment and price movements [8].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has reached $117,000, transforming from a decentralized currency to a "reserve asset" or "digital gold," which now supports the dollar system rather than replacing it [1][4]. Group 1: Bitcoin's Transformation - Bitcoin's initial identity as a revolutionary currency has shifted to being viewed as a "reserve asset," appealing to institutional investors [1]. - The comparison of Bitcoin to gold highlights its perceived value as a safe-haven asset, despite Bitcoin lacking practical uses beyond trading [1][8]. - The narrative surrounding Bitcoin has evolved to attract institutional investment, necessitating a more respectable identity [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Short Selling - A significant loss of $318 million occurred in a single day for short sellers as Bitcoin's price surged [2]. - The mechanics of short selling illustrate the risks involved, especially when using leverage, leading to substantial losses when prices rise unexpectedly [2]. - The phenomenon of "short squeezes" has been observed, where large holders of Bitcoin may manipulate prices to force short sellers to cover their positions at higher prices [2][3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The U.S. is considering a shift towards "looser regulation" of crypto assets, which could position the country as a global hub for cryptocurrency [4]. - This regulatory change is seen as a strategy to attract global capital, benefiting U.S. financial institutions while potentially sidelining retail investors [4]. - The implications of regulatory changes suggest that access to Bitcoin trading may be selectively granted, favoring institutional players over ordinary investors [4]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - The current price of Bitcoin makes it less accessible for retail investors, raising questions about the feasibility of participation in the market [8]. - The volatility of Bitcoin contrasts sharply with traditional assets like gold, challenging its classification as a stable reserve asset [8][10]. - The potential for regulatory crackdowns poses significant risks for investors, reminiscent of past market reactions to regulatory changes in other countries [8][10]. Group 5: Wealth Transfer Dynamics - The rise in Bitcoin's price is characterized as a "wealth transfer game," primarily benefiting institutional investors at the expense of retail participants [10]. - The narrative suggests that ordinary investors lack the necessary resources and information to compete effectively in the current market environment [10]. - The overarching theme indicates that the ultimate burden of investment risks may fall on those who believe in the "get-rich-quick" narrative surrounding Bitcoin [10].

Group 1 - The recent stock market rebound led by Nvidia has driven Bitcoin prices to briefly surpass $112,000, marking a historical high before a slight retreat [2] - Nvidia became the first company to briefly exceed a market capitalization of $4 trillion, contributing to the rise in tech stocks and the Nasdaq index reaching a new all-time high [2] - Despite the influx of billions into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin has only increased by 2% over the past month, indicating a period of narrow fluctuations [2] Group 2 - The sustainability of Bitcoin's price increase largely depends on macroeconomic conditions and developments in trade, particularly in light of the upcoming August 1 trade agreement deadline [3] - A potential trade agreement progress and lower inflation data could support a continued rise in Bitcoin prices, as indicated by the recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggesting a favorable environment for interest rate cuts [3] - A weaker dollar has also provided support for Bitcoin, as it is primarily priced in dollars [4]