最励志的一句话："绝对不要小看你自己你、马斯克、巴菲特、贝索斯、扎克伯格的财富加起来足以撼 动整个世界" 一位投资教父说这句话时，我嗤之以鼻，认为这只是成功学的漂亮话。 直到昨天，我在混乱的办公室里，亲手撕掉了那张价值2.3亿的意向书。而这一切，都源于我十年前， 对自己那份"股权"的可耻低估。 2010年，我在深圳华强北有个三平米的柜台。隔壁柜的老陈，总拉着我聊"未来的信号"。 "小张，比特币知道不？一块钱一个，数字黄金！"他眼睛放光。 我清点着当天的耳机利润，头也不抬："老陈，少做梦。这虚头巴脑的，能比我这现货实在？" 2014年，早我两年做电商的李哥，在饭桌上激动得满脸通红。 "美团、滴滴都在抢市场！这是入口之战！咱们哪怕只在自家店铺接个支付端口，未来都可能是……" 我打断他，给他倒了杯酒："李哥，咱就一卖手机壳的，把客服回复率搞上去比啥都强。那些玩意儿， 是马斯克他们玩的。" 我用自己的"现实"，精准地避开了每一个时代悄悄递来的船票。 转机出现在2018年。我被迫"转型"，因为实体柜台实在没流量了。咬着牙，我和团队开发了一个帮小商 家管理外卖平台的小工具。 没想到，它活了。仅仅是因为我们太懂小商家的痛。 ...

（原标题：比特币闪崩 一度跳水幅度超过70%！币圈上演罕见一幕 发生了什么？） 币圈，上演罕见一幕！ 数据显示，当地时间周三晚间，在币安交易所的BTC/USD1交易对上，比特币突然从8.76万美元闪崩至2.41万美元，跳水幅度超过70%。不过，随 后数秒内，比特币又迅速反弹至8.7万美元附近。 那么，为何会出现这种现象呢？ 突然闪崩 交易所数据显示，比特币周三晚间在币安BTC/USD1交易对上突现剧烈"闪烛线"，价格从8.76万美元的位置直线跳水，短暂触及2.41万美元后数秒 内迅速反弹至8.7万美元上方，上下波动幅度高达70%。 此次波动未在其他主要比特币交易对中出现，似乎仅局限于USD1——这款由特朗普家族支持的World Liberty Financial发行的稳定币。该交易对随 后恢复正常，比特币价格重回主流市场水平。 有分析指出，此类突发"闪烛线"通常由流动性不足或可能的显示问题引发，而非全面崩盘。新兴或交易量较小的稳定币交易对往往缺乏提供密集 报价的做市商，导致订单簿深度较浅。一笔大额市价卖单、一次强制清算或通过该交易对执行的自动化交易，都可能迅速击穿买盘，使价格短暂 偏离真实市场水平，直至新的买 ...

在传统金融市场迎来年末反弹之际，比特币不仅痛失"圣诞行情"，还在币安交易所出现罕见闪崩。 美盘周三晚间，比特币在币安BTC/USD1交易对上突然从8.76万美元闪崩至2.41万美元，跳水幅度超过70%，随后数秒内迅速反弹至8.7万美元附 近。 这一剧烈波动仅限于USD1，由特朗普家族支持的World Liberty Financial发行的稳定币，未在其他主要交易对中出现。 目前比特币价格徘徊在约8.7万美元附近，困于8.5万至9万美元区间，今年累计跌幅超过7%。自10月从历史高点回落以来，比特币已下跌约30%， 正创下自2022年第二季度TerraUSD和三箭资本崩盘以来最差季度表现。 这个以高波动性和投机情绪著称的资产，在年末意外陷入停滞，与标普500指数和黄金屡创新高形成鲜明反差。 流动性不足引发技术性闪崩 新兴或交易量较小的稳定币交易对往往缺乏提供密集报价的做市商，导致订单簿深度较浅。一笔大额市价卖单、强制清算或自动化交易，都可能 迅速击穿买盘，使价格短暂偏离真实市场水平。 加密货币分析师、Coin Bureau联合创始人Cryptonews表示： 这凸显了在流动性不足的交易对执行操作的风险，尤其当稳 ...

在传统金融市场迎来年末"圣诞行情"、风险偏好明显回暖之际，全球市值最大的加密货币比特币却几乎 毫无起色，显得格格不入。 周三，比特币价格徘徊在约8.7万美元附近，近期被"钉"在8.5万至9万美元的区间内，走势低迷、交投清 淡。这个一向以高波动性和投机情绪著称的资产，在年末却意外陷入停滞。 相比之下，比特币却"两头落空"。在2025年初的一段时间里，比特币走势曾与风险资产高度同步，但在 年末行情中却明显掉队；而其长期标榜的"数字黄金"属性，也未能吸引到推动金价上涨的防御性资金流 入。今年以来，比特币累计跌幅已超过7%。 数字资产研究机构BRN研究主管Timothy Misir指出："硬资产正在吸引作为长期对冲工具的资金，而加 密资产仍然被边缘化。" 本周即将到期的逾230亿美元比特币期权合约，抑制了方向性押注，叠加假期流动性下降，进一步加剧 了市场僵局。此外，长期持有者的持续抛售同样构成拖累。加密对冲基金Apollo Crypto的投资组合经理 Pratik Kala表示，今年比特币的价格表现"明显与极度利多的新闻周期脱节"。他认为，这主要源于早期 持有者的持续减持，以及包括10月急跌在内的被动抛售，令多次反弹 ...

Core Insights - The World Gold Council reported that global instability and inflation have driven a significant increase in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][5] - Gold experienced a remarkable performance in 2025, achieving a 55% year-to-date increase and hitting an all-time high of over $4,370 per ounce [5][6] - In contrast, Bitcoin faced a substantial decline, dropping over 30% from its peak of $126,200 in October 2025, entering a bear market phase [4][6] Gold Market Dynamics - Central banks, particularly in China, India, and Turkey, have been accumulating gold at near-record rates, collectively purchasing over 1,000 tons annually [9][10] - For the first time in decades, central banks held more gold than U.S. Treasury bonds in their reserves, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [10][7] - The broad participation in gold investment included institutional investors and retail investors seeking safety amid market volatility [11] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's initial rally in 2025 was fueled by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional adoption, but this momentum was short-lived [4][13] - The decline in Bitcoin's value was exacerbated by rising interest rate expectations and a broader risk-off environment, leading to significant liquidations in the crypto market [15][22] - The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" faced challenges as it failed to achieve reserve-asset status and was not held by major central banks [16][23] Comparative Analysis - The divergence between gold and Bitcoin in 2025 highlights a shift in investor psychology, with gold being favored as a proven store of value during times of uncertainty [20][21] - While gold's performance was bolstered by geopolitical tensions and inflation, Bitcoin's appeal diminished as it became more correlated with risk assets [24][25] - The contrasting paths of these assets suggest that in uncertain times, capital tends to flow towards established safe havens like gold rather than speculative assets like Bitcoin [24][25]

Core Insights - Tether, a major player in the cryptocurrency market, has emerged as a significant buyer of gold, holding 116 tons valued at approximately $14 billion, surpassing some national central banks [3][4] - The price of gold has surged by 56% in 2025, with Tether's purchases coinciding with this increase, particularly during the second wave of price growth from mid-August to mid-October [3][4] - The rise of gold-backed stablecoins is gaining traction, with Tether's USDT and XAUt contributing to this trend, reflecting a shift in the stablecoin market [4][7] Tether's Gold Purchases - Tether's gold purchases accounted for about 2% of global gold demand in Q3 and 12% of known central bank purchases during the same period [3] - In Q2, Tether's gold buying represented 14% of global central bank purchases, indicating its growing influence in the gold market [3] - Tether holds 104 tons of gold as reserves for USDT and an additional 12 tons for XAUt, suggesting a strategic move to bolster its asset backing [4] Market Dynamics - The gold price increase has occurred in two phases, with the first phase seeing a nearly $1,000 rise before April and the second phase mirroring this increase from August to October [3] - Tether's demand for gold may have tightened supply and influenced market sentiment, driving speculative investments into gold [4][6] - The stablecoin market is evolving, with gold-backed stablecoins becoming a new category, currently valued at $1.6 billion, representing 0.67% of the total stablecoin market [7] Regulatory Considerations - Tether's use of gold as a reserve asset contrasts with new U.S. regulations that prohibit compliant issuers from using gold as backing, leading Tether to plan a new stablecoin, USAT, that will not be gold-backed [5] - The intertwining of gold and cryptocurrency ecosystems raises questions about the stability and regulatory compliance of such assets [5][6] Future of Digital Gold - The development of digital gold is seen as timely, with potential for innovation in financial products, provided regulatory frameworks are established [7][8] - Challenges remain in ensuring transparency and security in the issuance and tracking of digital gold, as well as maintaining sufficient physical gold reserves [8] - The future landscape may see digital gold complementing physical gold rather than replacing it, enhancing the overall gold market [8]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank believes that the recent decline in Bitcoin is driven by five major shocks, including macroeconomic headwinds, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, stagnation in regulatory progress, outflows of institutional funds, and profit-taking by long-term holders, indicating a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's investment logic and an unprecedented emphasis on risk management [1][2][4]. Group 1: Five Major Shocks - **Shock One: High Correlation with Tech Stocks** The recent decline in Bitcoin is synchronized with the drop in U.S. stocks, indicating that Bitcoin has not yet established its function as a defensive hedge [3]. - **Shock Two: Increased Uncertainty in Monetary Policy** The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key driver of Bitcoin's decline, with a strong negative correlation between Bitcoin prices and Fed interest rates [10][11]. - **Shock Three: Stagnation of Regulatory Key Legislation** The momentum for regulatory frameworks has stalled, hindering the integration of Bitcoin into investment portfolios and liquidity deepening [13][15]. - **Shock Four: Institutional Fund Outflows and Liquidity Drain** A vicious cycle of liquidity drain and institutional fund outflows has exacerbated the price drop, with significant net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs recently [17][18]. - **Shock Five: Profit-Taking by Long-Term Holders** Unlike previous crashes driven by new or leveraged traders, this adjustment has seen long-term holders selling off over 800,000 Bitcoins, marking the highest level since January 2024 [20][21]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - **Market Dynamics** The correlation between Bitcoin and major stock indices has surged, reaching levels similar to those during the market stress of the COVID-19 pandemic [5][6]. - **Future Outlook** The ability of Bitcoin to stabilize post-adjustment remains uncertain, but regulatory reforms and increased interest from governments and central banks may enhance institutional confidence and market liquidity [23]. - **Risk Management Importance** As the cryptocurrency market evolves, implementing strict risk management measures is crucial due to the potential for increased price volatility driven by uncertainty and leverage effects [23].

Group 1: Market Trends - The global financial market is experiencing significant divergence, with gold prices retreating to $4040 per ounce and Bitcoin dropping below the critical support level of $90,000 from its July peak [1] - The strong rise in gold is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and a return to traditional safe-haven assets, while Bitcoin's decline is influenced by regulatory uncertainties, institutional fund outflows, and a cooling speculative sentiment [1][2] - Ethereum has also faced a sharp decline, dropping over 25% from its July peak, officially entering a technical bear market [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Peter Schiff emphasizes Bitcoin's relative weakness compared to gold, noting that Bitcoin has fallen 30% when priced in gold since its July high, indicating a deep bear market for Bitcoin [2] - Schiff argues that gold's physical scarcity and historical monetary attributes provide intrinsic value, while Bitcoin relies on market sentiment and speculation, lacking a solid value anchor [2][3] - Institutional investors have significantly increased their allocation to gold ETFs in 2024, while Bitcoin ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, highlighting a shift in asset allocation preferences [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent market crash triggered a chain reaction, with over $1.2 billion in forced liquidations across major exchanges, predominantly in Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives [2] - Whale accounts, holding over 1,000 Bitcoins, have accelerated their selling, contributing to market declines and reflecting a need for asset rebalancing among institutional investors [5] - Bitcoin ETFs have experienced seven consecutive weeks of net outflows, the longest streak since 2023, contrasting sharply with the ongoing inflows into gold ETFs [5] Group 4: Challenges for Crypto Companies - Companies that heavily invest in cryptocurrencies, like MicroStrategy, face significant challenges as their stock prices have plummeted over 65% from yearly highs, raising concerns about their financing strategies [4] - The business model of crypto asset reserve companies is under severe strain, with many companies now trading at a discount to their held cryptocurrency values [6] - The mNAV valuation metric for MicroStrategy has dropped from above 3.0 to just 1.1, indicating a loss of confidence in the crypto asset reserve model [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is being re-evaluated, with the need for Bitcoin to demonstrate resilience in adverse conditions to gain equal market status with traditional safe-haven assets [7] - Analysts suggest that while the market faces challenges, the fundamental aspects of Bitcoin, such as active addresses and hash rate, remain strong, indicating potential long-term value [6][7]

Core Insights - The perception of Bitcoin as merely a speculative tool is changing, as sovereign institutions like Abu Dhabi and Luxembourg are beginning to view it as a strategic complement to traditional reserve assets, thereby altering the global investment landscape [1][11] Group 1: Sovereign Fund Actions - Luxembourg's first sovereign fund, FSIL, announced in October that it would allocate 1% of its assets (approximately €7 million) to Bitcoin, viewing it as a hedge against inflation and currency risk [3] - The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIC) significantly increased its holdings in a Bitcoin trust fund, investing $518 million to acquire 8 million shares, completing this investment just before a 20% market drop, indicating a long-term value belief rather than short-term speculation [4] Group 2: Bitcoin's Performance and Risk - From 2023 to 2025, Bitcoin's annualized returns are expected to significantly outperform gold, the S&P 500, and U.S. Treasury bonds, despite its volatility being twice that of 51 sovereign currencies [6] - Research indicates that even a small allocation of Bitcoin in a portfolio can enhance risk-adjusted returns, showcasing the strategic advantage for sovereign funds to exchange controllable risks for higher returns [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Innovations - Sovereign funds currently allocate 32% to equities and 28% to fixed income, with commodities like gold only making up 0.8%. The emergence of spot ETFs has resolved classification issues, allowing funds to incorporate Bitcoin as a compliant financial instrument [7] - During a market downturn in 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced redemptions of up to $523 million, highlighting the challenges faced by the industry. However, innovations like institutional-grade custody services and stablecoin lending are helping to mitigate these risks [9] Group 4: Strategic Diversification - The traditional reliance on gold and bonds for sovereign reserves is evolving towards diversification in response to complex economic conditions. Bitcoin is not intended to replace gold but to serve as a complementary asset, enhancing portfolio resilience [11]

Core Insights - The iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US) experienced a record net outflow of approximately $523 million, marking the largest single-day redemption since its launch in January 2024, coinciding with Bitcoin's price dropping below $90,000, the lowest in seven months [1][4] - IBIT, as the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, has been a central player in the crypto ETF boom, but recent rapid declines in Bitcoin's price have led to significant redemption pressures, indicating a challenging market environment for risk assets [4] - In contrast to Bitcoin's decline, gold has remained relatively stable, raising questions about Bitcoin's role as a hedge or "digital gold," with some analysts suggesting investors are reducing Bitcoin exposure in favor of gold [4] - The crypto market has been losing momentum since August, with previous demand largely driven by leveraged funds, and profit-taking by long-term holders has intensified market pressure [4] - Over the past year, Bitcoin treasury companies have accumulated nearly $50 billion in Bitcoin, but many related company stocks have fallen below their Bitcoin net asset values, raising concerns about their ability and willingness to continue buying [4] - Some prominent investors warn that valuations across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, appear elevated, contributing to a market environment lacking speculative sentiment [7] - As of this quarter, IBIT, with assets exceeding $73 billion, has seen a cumulative decline of approximately 19% [7]