证券研究报告 | 专题研究 | ESG 及绿色金融 专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 11 日 经济修复不及预期；ESG 相关政策推行不及预期；市场情绪与偏好波动风险。 分析师：祁星 执业证书号：S1230524120002 qixing@stocke.com.cn 全球 ESG 基金 2025 海外市场回顾: 4 万亿在望，欧美监管张力下 规模仍稳中有进 ——全球 ESG 基金 2025 第四季度市场点评 核心观点 2025 年全球 ESG 基金市场录得 840 亿美元净流出，是 2018 年来的首次年度净流出。 但我们认为，市场不必对该数据过于悲观。流量数据的阶段性转负体现的是欧美监管 张力下不同的市场情绪，欧洲市场更多呈现"反漂绿下的脱虚向实"，而美国市场则仍 受制于政治极化。 ❑ 市场总量：全球 ESG 基金规模向 4 万亿美元迈进，欧洲市场仍占据主导地位 截至 2025 年底，全球 ESG 基金市场规模突破 3.90 万亿美元，较三季度末 3.75 万 亿美元规模上涨约 4%。受益于资本市场整体抬升，年初以来全球 ESG 基金市场 规模持续增长。相较 2018 年底大约 6000 亿美元的 ...

Group 1 - BlackRock China predicts a "slow bull" market for Chinese assets in 2026, supported by fundamental and policy resonance, with conditions such as liquidity and profit improvement necessary for the bull market's continuation [1][2] - The global investment landscape in 2026 will be driven by the AI wave, with the U.S. economy showing resilience and a shift from consumption-led growth to a balance of AI investment and consumption [1][2] - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a significant global position, with strong export performance as a key growth driver and an improved environment for the Hong Kong stock market [2] Group 2 - Dynamic asset allocation is essential in the current high-volatility market, with active rebalancing strategies showing better long-term results than static approaches [2][3] - The 2025 performance of the CSI 300 index saw an increase of nearly 18%, driven by valuation expansion, indicating a sentiment-driven bull market [2][3] - Four conditions are necessary for the continuation of the bull market: ample liquidity, a transition to profit realization in the stock market, supportive policy measures, and a reduction in geopolitical risks [2] Group 3 - The negative correlation between traditional asset classes, particularly stocks and bonds, is weakening, necessitating a focus on expected returns and risk trade-offs [3] - ETFs are highlighted as a flexible investment tool suitable for capturing structural opportunities in the A-share market, reflecting a trend towards more sophisticated investment products [3][4] - The bond market is expected to exhibit "corridor-style" fluctuations, with limited volatility due to ongoing economic recovery and supportive monetary policy [3][5] Group 4 - Approximately 50 trillion yuan in deposits are set to mature this year, with expectations that some will flow into the capital markets, potentially influencing asset prices [4] - The Chinese bond ETF market, currently at 830 billion yuan, has significant growth potential compared to the total bond market size of nearly 200 trillion yuan, indicating room for innovation in bond strategies [5] Group 5 - Gold is expected to maintain its long-term hedging value due to factors such as global central bank purchases, potential dollar weakness, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties [5][6] - The investment landscape is shifting towards themes of financial stability, energy, technology, and national defense, with commodities closely linked to these themes [6] Group 6 - The trend in global pension investments is moving from defined benefit (DB) plans to defined contribution (DC) plans, reflecting the need for individuals to take on more retirement responsibility [7] - BlackRock aims to localize overseas strategies for the Chinese market, focusing on adapting investment approaches to align with local risk preferences and improving client investment behavior [7]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2026 02 11 年 月 日 固定收益点评 详解股债恒定 ETF——产品特征、海外经验与国内前景 ETF 具有显著的配置工具属性，且在过往几年里成为关注度最高、发展 最快的基金品种之一，国内 ETF 制度体系近年来持续完善。2022 年提 出"支持成熟指数型产品做大做强，加快推动 ETF 产品创新发展"。 2024 年，"新国九条"正式出台，首次在国家层面建立"ETF 快速审批 通道"，并将指数化投资提升至战略高度；同年还通过引导中长期资金 入市等配套改革，巩固 ETF 配置优势。2025 年，监管进一步优化注册流 程，并在销售费用新规中为 ETF 提供了赎回费差异化安排。 预期首批股债恒定类 ETF 将很快落地。2025 年《促进资本市场指数化投 资高质量发展行动方案》则首次明确提出"研究推出多资产 ETF"，为 股债恒定类产品提供了直接的政策依据。与此同时，中证指数公司与中 债金融估值中心自 2024 年起陆续发布多条股债恒定比例指数。 股债恒定类 ETF 是指以预设固定比例（如 20/80、30/70 等）配置股 票与债券资产的被动型交易所交易基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent loan wipeout by BlackRock's HPS to a telecom entrepreneur highlights the inherent risks present in the rapidly growing private-credit sector [1] Group 1 - The incident underscores that even sophisticated investors are not immune to losses in the private-credit market [1] - The private-credit business has been experiencing significant growth, attracting various investors seeking higher returns [1] - The failure of this loan raises questions about the due diligence processes employed by investors in this sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix are set to begin construction of data centers in South Korea starting in March, as announced by Science Minister Bae Kyung-hoon during a parliamentary hearing [1] Group 1 - OpenAI, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix are collaborating on the development of data centers [1] - The construction is scheduled to commence in March [1] - The announcement was made by Science Minister Bae Kyung-hoon at a parliamentary hearing [1]

Group 1 - The article does not provide any relevant content regarding company or industry insights [1]

Core Insights - The ETF market experienced record net inflows of $166 billion in January 2026, surpassing the combined inflows of the previous three Januarys [1] - There is a significant shift from U.S. mega-cap stocks to international equities, with international equity ETFs attracting $68 billion in January, marking the first time they outpaced U.S. equity inflows since February 2023 [1] - The S&P 500 trades at approximately 22 times forward 2026 earnings, while international equities are closer to 13 times, indicating a potential for better returns from international markets [1] ETF Market Dynamics - International funds accounted for about one-third of net inflows despite representing only 17% of total ETF assets, with four of the top 10 most popular equity ETFs focusing on international markets [1] - Global ex-U.S. equity funds have seen their strongest inflow streak in four and a half years, driven by a rotation out of expensive U.S. tech stocks into more affordable international markets [1] Regional Performance - Emerging markets have shown strong performance, with three of the top 20 most popular ETFs being focused on these markets, including the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, which has attracted approximately $9 billion this year [1] - South Korean stocks have gained 28% year-to-date, with the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF seeing net inflows of around $1.7 billion [1] - European-focused ETFs have also seen strong demand, with inflows into both equity and bond funds surpassing those of U.S. counterparts [1] China and ADRs - Despite strong stock performance, China-focused ETFs have not seen significant inflows, although the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF attracted over $2 billion last year [1] - The ADR market represents a $2 trillion opportunity, with U.S. institutions holding more than $800 billion, primarily in Chinese firms [1] - New ADR indexes have been developed to provide more precise access to international opportunities through U.S.-listed securities, allowing for better replication of returns from underlying indices [1]

Summary of BlackRock's 2026 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) - **Industry**: Asset Management - **AUM**: Over $14 trillion, making it the largest asset manager globally [3][4] Key Financial Performance - **Organic Base Fee Growth**: Achieved a record 12% in Q4 2025, with an annual growth of 9% for the year, significantly above market expectations [3][4] - **Sustainable Growth Projection**: Expected normalized organic base fee growth of 6%-7% moving forward [5][6] Strategic Priorities for 2026 - **Integration of Acquisitions**: Focus on integrating recent acquisitions, including Global Infrastructure Partners and HPS Investment Partners, to maximize synergies [11][12] - **Fundraising Goals**: Targeting $400 billion in growth fundraising by 2030, leveraging institutional relationships and wealth channels [12][13] - **iShares Growth**: Continued double-digit organic growth in ETFs, with $530 billion of organic asset growth in 2025 [13][14] - **Technology and Data**: Aiming for mid-teens annual contract value (ACV) growth in the Aladdin business, which finished 2025 at 16% ACV [14][15] - **Wealth Management Expansion**: Significant opportunities in wealth management, particularly in integrating private markets into wealth platforms [15][16] Market Trends and Opportunities - **Consolidation in Asset Management**: The top five asset managers are capturing approximately 80% of industry flows, indicating a trend towards consolidation [6][7] - **Digital Wallets and Crypto**: BlackRock sees digital wallets as a new distribution channel, with 820 million crypto wallets holding significant economic value [22][23][26] - **Tokenization of ETFs**: Plans to tokenize ETF offerings to tap into the growing digital wallet ecosystem [29][30] Systematic Active Equity Business - **Strong Demand**: Experienced $50 billion in inflows into systematic strategies, highlighting a shift in the perception of scale as a driver of alpha [40][43] - **Diverse Product Offering**: Growth across multiple products, including active ETFs and hedge funds, contributing to systematic flows [45][46] M&A Strategy - **Focus on Integration**: Current emphasis on integrating recent acquisitions rather than pursuing new large-scale M&A [66][67] - **Selective Acquisitions**: Open to smaller, accretive transactions that align with growth in private markets and technology [66][67] Operating Margins - **Current Margin Performance**: Achieved an adjusted operating margin of 45% in Q4 2025, with expectations to maintain or exceed this level [59][61] - **Long-term Margin Goals**: Potential to grow fully burdened operating margins above 45% through strategic investments and organic growth [61][62] White Space Opportunities - **Expansion Areas**: Identified opportunities in secondaries, investment-grade finance, and data completion related to Preqin [69][71] Conclusion - BlackRock is well-positioned for continued growth through strategic integration of acquisitions, expansion in wealth management, and leveraging technology in asset management. The focus on digital wallets and tokenization reflects a forward-looking approach to evolving market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - A Texas judge has ruled to invalidate a state law that targeted financial firms, including BlackRock and HSBC, for their use of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors in investment decisions, which could have significant implications for the investment landscape and regulatory environment in the state [1] Group 1 - The law in question aimed to blacklist financial firms that engage in "woke" investing practices, which has been a contentious issue in the financial industry [1] - The ruling may set a precedent for other states considering similar legislation against firms that prioritize ESG criteria in their investment strategies [1] - BlackRock and HSBC, among others, have been vocal proponents of ESG investing, and this ruling could impact their operations and strategies moving forward [1]

Core Insights - BlackRock CEO Larry Fink highlights the economic anxiety felt by younger generations, particularly Gen Z and Millennials, who believe that older generations have created systems that primarily benefit themselves [1][2] - Fink acknowledges the frustration of younger Americans, stating that Baby Boomers have prioritized their financial well-being at the expense of future generations [2] Group 1: Retirement Challenges - Fink argues that retirement has become significantly more challenging due to increased life expectancy, with current systems failing to adapt accordingly [3] - He notes that retirement today is "a much harder proposition than it was 30 years ago" and will continue to be so in the future [3] - The traditional pension system is declining, and Social Security is under pressure, leaving many workers feeling unsupported [4] Group 2: Financial Security Concerns - Nearly half of Americans aged 55 to 65 have no savings in personal retirement accounts, exacerbating the financial insecurity felt by younger generations [5] - Rising inflation, increasing housing costs, and stagnant wages contribute to the perception that a secure retirement is unattainable for Millennials and Gen Z [5] Group 3: Barriers to Investment - Fink identifies fear, rather than ignorance or apathy, as the primary barrier preventing individuals from investing [7] - He emphasizes that the uncertainty about the future discourages people from committing their money to long-term investments [7]