Company Performance - Boot Barn Holdings' shares have increased by 51.5% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the industry average of 1.9% [1] - The company's revenue for fiscal 2024 reached approximately $1.7 billion, marking a 100% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels from four years ago [13] - For fiscal 2025, Boot Barn Holdings projects total sales between $1.766 billion and $1.800 billion, indicating a growth of 5.9% to 8% over fiscal 2024 [14] Strategic Initiatives - The company has successfully increased its exclusive brand penetration by 370 basis points to 37.7% for the full year, enhancing product offerings and margin profile [4] - Boot Barn's merchandise margin improved by 160 basis points for the full year, driven by better freight costs and product margins, showcasing effective cost management [7] - The introduction of artificial intelligence in customer interactions has improved customer experience and brand loyalty, contributing to sales growth [6] Expansion and Growth Strategy - Boot Barn opened 55 new stores in fiscal 2024, exceeding initial plans, and has expanded from 86 stores in eight states to 400 stores across 45 states over the past 12 years [19] - The new stores have demonstrated strong performance, generating a 60% cash-on-cash return on capital in their first year [19] - The company aims for a steady pace of 15% new unit growth annually, supported by strong financial fundamentals and strategic initiatives [18]

Core Insights - Schaeffer's Weekend Trader Alert subscribers achieved a 100% profit on Boot Barn Holdings Inc (NYSE:BOOT) July 110 call options within a week, indicating strong bullish sentiment and effective trading strategy [1][3] Company Performance - At the time of the recommendation on May 26, BOOT was trading at $113.25, having recently pulled back to support levels at its April high and 10-day moving average, suggesting underlying technical strength despite previous bearish guidance [2] - Following the recommendation, Boot Barn experienced six consecutive winning trading days, including a notable 4.2% increase on May 31, leading to a profitable exit for subscribers [3] Market Dynamics - The stock had significant chart support, with short interest unwinding since January, which was expected to continue due to the stock's resilience against bearish guidance; short interest represented 12.7% of BOOT's available float, indicating potential for further upward movement [4]

Core Insights - Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results with revenues and earnings exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates, but both metrics declined year over year [1][3][4] - The company is focusing on operational efficiency, cost management, and expanding its retail footprint, having opened 55 new stores in fiscal 2024 [2] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.01, down 34% from $1.53 in the prior year, but above the consensus estimate of 89 cents [3] - Total sales reached $388.5 million, an 8.7% decline year over year, yet surpassed the consensus estimate of $384 million [4] - Same-store sales fell 5.9% year over year, with retail store same-store sales down 5.7% and e-commerce same-store sales down 7.6% [5] Profitability Metrics - Gross profit decreased by 10.5% to $139.4 million, primarily due to lower sales, although merchandise margins improved [5][6] - Gross margin contracted by 70 basis points to 35.9%, influenced by increased buying, occupancy, and distribution center costs [6] - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose to $101.2 million, an 8.7% increase year over year, representing 26.1% of sales [8] Operational Insights - Operating income decreased by 39% to $38.2 million, with an operating margin of 9.8%, down 490 basis points from the previous year [9] - The company ended the quarter with $75.8 million in cash and did not utilize its $250 million revolving credit facility [11] Future Guidance - For Q1 fiscal 2025, Boot Barn anticipates net sales between $399 million and $407 million, indicating a growth of 4-6.1% year over year [12] - Same-store sales are expected to decline by 2.5-4.5%, with retail store same-store sales projected to decrease by 3-5% [13] - For fiscal 2025, the company plans to open 60 new stores and forecasts total revenues between $1.766 billion and $1.800 billion, reflecting a growth of 5.9-8% [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Full year fiscal 2024 revenue grew to approximately $1.7 billion, nearly 100% growth over pre-pandemic levels, with a 2% year-over-year increase when excluding the 53rd week of fiscal 2023 [7][26] - Fourth quarter net sales decreased 8.7% to $388 million, driven by a 5.9% decline in same-store sales [22][23] - Earnings per diluted share for the full year was $4.80, down from the previous year but nearly triple pre-pandemic earnings [8][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Merchandise margin for the full year grew 160 basis points, with a 160 basis point expansion in the fourth quarter driven by freight improvements and supply chain efficiencies [7][9] - Exclusive brands penetration decreased 20 basis points in the fourth quarter but increased 370 basis points for the full year, exceeding the goal of 250 basis points per year [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same-store sales declined 5.9% in the fourth quarter, with retail store same-store sales down 5.7% and e-commerce same-store sales down 7.6% [22][24] - Each of the four regions showed sequential improvement in the quarter compared to Q3, with the East slightly below the chain average [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open at least 500 more stores in the U.S., maintaining a pace of adding 15% new units annually [11][12] - Focus on expanding exclusive brands and enhancing merchandise margin through buying economies of scale and supply chain efficiencies [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about recent positive trends in sales, noting that same-store sales are flat through the first six weeks of Q1, with May showing positive growth [20][21] - The macro environment remains uncertain, with persistent inflationary pressures on core customers, leading to conservative guidance for the upcoming year [21][26] Other Important Information - The company opened 55 new stores in fiscal 2024, exceeding original plans, and achieved a 60% cash on cash return on capital in the first year for new stores [6][11] - The e-commerce sales declined 7.6% in the fourth quarter, but the digital team is making progress with AI development to enhance online sales [15][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of same-store sales acceleration in April and May - Management noted broad-based sequential improvement across all major product categories, with significant increases in ladies Western boots and work apparel [36][37] Question: Bottom line and EBIT margin forecast - EBIT margin forecast includes 110 basis points of merchandise margin expansion, with deleverage on SG&A due to negative same-store sales guidance [40][41] Question: Impact of Beyonce's album on sales - Management indicated minimal impact from the album on buying behavior, emphasizing that improvements are driven by existing customer trends [46][50] Question: Areas of conservatism in guidance - Conservatism is embedded due to tough year-over-year comparisons in June and macroeconomic uncertainties [56][58] Question: New store performance and comp waterfall - New stores are performing above expectations, with a return to traditional comp performance anticipated over time [64][66] Question: Exclusive brand performance - Exclusive brand penetration is expected to grow again after a temporary decline, with positive trends noted in new brands launched [74][98] Question: Competitive landscape and market share - The company continues to take market share from smaller independent retailers, which have seen more closures than openings post-pandemic [116]

Core Insights - Boot Barn reported revenue of $388.46 million for the quarter ended March 2024, reflecting an 8.7% decline year-over-year, while EPS was $1.01 compared to $1.53 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $383.67 million by 1.25%, and the EPS surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.89 by 13.48% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Same Store Sales declined by 5.9%, which was better than the four-analyst average estimate of a decline of 7.3% [4] - The number of stores operating at the end of the period was 400, exceeding the three-analyst average estimate of 397 [4] - Average store square footage at the end of the period was 10,929, compared to the two-analyst average estimate of 10,872 [4] - Boot Barn opened or acquired 18 stores, surpassing the two-analyst average estimate of 15 [4] Stock Performance - Boot Barn shares returned +8.9% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Sales Performance - In fiscal 2024, sales from exclusive brand products accounted for approximately 37.7% of consolidated sales[413] - Three of the five top-selling brands as of March 30, 2024, were exclusive brands, which historically have a higher gross margin than third-party branded merchandise[413] - The company’s sales are typically higher in the third fiscal quarter due to the Christmas shopping season, which also incurs significant additional costs[427] - Sales significantly fluctuate based on shopping seasons, leading to disproportionate quarterly operational results[455] - Net sales disaggregation shows that stores accounted for 89% of total net sales as of March 30, 2024, compared to 87% in fiscal 2023 and 85% in fiscal 2022, while e-commerce sales decreased to 11% from 13% and 15% respectively[196] Financial Condition - Total current assets increased to $729.649 million as of March 30, 2024, up from $669.173 million on April 1, 2023, representing an increase of approximately 9%[1] - Cash and cash equivalents rose significantly to $75.847 million from $18.193 million, marking an increase of over 317%[1] - Net income for the period was $146.996 million, a decrease of 14% compared to $170.553 million in the previous fiscal year[2] - Net cash provided by operating activities surged to $236.080 million, compared to $88.887 million in the prior year, indicating a growth of approximately 165%[2] - Total liabilities increased to $761.949 million as of March 30, 2024, compared to $740.931 million on April 1, 2023, reflecting a rise of about 3%[1] - Total stockholders' equity rose to $943.643 million, up from $776.450 million, representing an increase of approximately 21%[1] - The company reported a decrease in accounts receivable to $9.964 million from $13.145 million, a decline of about 24%[1] - The company’s inventories increased slightly to $599.120 million from $589.494 million, showing a growth of approximately 2%[1] - Cash paid for income taxes was $57.157 million, down from $60.171 million, indicating a decrease of about 5%[2] Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to network security breaches, which could incur significant expenses and disrupt operations[414] - The company relies on vendors for quality merchandise compliance with product safety laws, and any failure could adversely affect its reputation and financial condition[439] - Changes in laws regarding product safety or consumer protection could lead to increased costs and operational challenges[440] - The company is subject to numerous regulations that, if violated, could increase costs, cause shipment delays, or harm reputation, adversely affecting business[468] - Litigation costs and outcomes could materially adversely affect the business[458] - Unseasonable or extreme weather could negatively impact sales, financial condition, and operational results[456] Debt and Financing - As of March 30, 2024, there was no outstanding indebtedness under the Wells Fargo Revolver, but the company may incur debt in the future[423] - The company's variable rate debt is currently indexed to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which is volatile and difficult to predict, impacting interest payments[448] - The leverage may reduce cash flow available for business growth, limiting flexibility to respond to changing conditions and increasing borrowing costs[450][452] - The Company has a $250.0 million syndicated senior secured asset-based revolving credit facility with a maturity date of July 11, 2027[242] - The sublimit for letters of credit under the Wells Fargo Revolver is $10.0 million[242] - The Company is required to maintain a Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio of at least 1.00:1.00 during covenant trigger events[244] Accounting and Compliance - The implementation of new accounting standards could increase operating costs and alter financial statements[453] - The Company is evaluating the impact of new accounting standards on its financial disclosures, including segment reporting and income tax disclosures[207][236] - The Company recognized an impairment charge of $2.0 million related to the Sheplers indefinite-lived trademark during fiscal 2024[3] - The goodwill balance remained unchanged at $197.5 million for fiscal 2024, with no impairment charges recorded for fiscal 2024, 2023, and 2022[209] Marketing and Advertising - The Company recognized $44.0 million in advertising costs during fiscal 2024, an increase from $40.7 million in fiscal 2023 and $34.5 million in fiscal 2022[228] - The Company incurred store opening costs, which include payroll, marketing, and initial inventory costs, all of which are expensed as incurred[198] Other Financial Metrics - The Company defers recognition of gift card sales until the cards are used, with no expiration dates for unredeemed cards[194] - As of March 30, 2024, the unearned revenue from the customer loyalty program was $5.0 million, up from $4.1 million in April 1, 2023, and $3.5 million in March 26, 2022[193] - Prepaid expenses and other current assets totaled $44.7 million as of March 30, 2024, down from $48.3 million in April 1, 2023[208] - Sales from the Company's three largest suppliers represented approximately 24% of net sales in fiscal 2024, consistent with fiscal 2023, and a slight decrease from 27% in fiscal 2022[206]

Sales Performance - Net sales for the fourth fiscal quarter decreased by 8.7% year-over-year to $388.5 million, with a 2.2% decrease when excluding $28.3 million from the prior year's 14th week[3] - Same store sales declined by 5.9% compared to the prior year, with retail store same store sales down 5.7% and e-commerce same store sales down 7.6%[3] - For the fiscal year, net sales increased by 0.6% to $1.667 billion, with a 2.3% increase when excluding $28.3 million from the 53rd week of the prior year[4] - Net sales for the quarter ended March 30, 2024, were $388.459 million, a decrease from $425.661 million for the quarter ended April 1, 2023, representing a decline of approximately 8.7%[35] - Net sales increased 0.6% to $1.667 billion from $1.658 billion in the prior year, with consolidated same store sales decreasing 6.2%[39] Profitability - Net income for the fourth quarter was $29.4 million, or $0.96 per diluted share, down from $46.4 million, or $1.53 per diluted share in the prior year[3] - Net income for the quarter ended March 30, 2024, was $29.439 million, compared to $46.409 million for the quarter ended April 1, 2023, indicating a decline of approximately 36.5%[35] - Gross profit for the quarter ended March 30, 2024, was $139.438 million, down from $155.832 million for the same quarter last year, reflecting a decrease of about 10.5%[35] - Gross profit was $139.4 million, or 35.9% of net sales, down from $155.8 million, or 36.6% in the prior-year period, primarily due to a decrease in sales[37] - Income from operations decreased by $24.5 million to $38.2 million, or 9.8% of net sales, compared to $62.7 million, or 14.7% in the prior-year period[46] Store Operations - The company opened 18 new stores in the fourth quarter, bringing the total store count to 400[3] - The company reported a total of 400 stores at the end of the period, with 18 new stores opened during the quarter[32] - The company expects to open 60 new stores in the fiscal year ending March 29, 2025, with total sales projected between $1.766 billion and $1.800 billion, representing growth of 5.9% to 8.0%[13] Future Projections - Same store sales for the upcoming fiscal year are expected to decline by approximately 3.6% to 1.6%, with retail store same store sales declines of 4.0% to 2.0%[13] - Gross profit for the upcoming fiscal year is projected to be between $647.2 million and $664.1 million, or approximately 36.6% to 36.9% of sales[13] Financial Position - Cash on hand was reported at $76 million, with no amounts drawn from the $250 million revolving credit facility[24] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $75.847 million as of March 30, 2024, up from $18.193 million as of April 1, 2023[33] - Total assets as of March 30, 2024, were $1.706 billion, an increase from $1.517 billion as of April 1, 2023[33] - Total liabilities increased to $761.949 million as of March 30, 2024, compared to $740.931 million as of April 1, 2023[33] - The company reported a cash flow from operating activities of $236.080 million for the quarter ended March 30, 2024[31] Expenses - Selling, general and administrative expenses rose to $101.2 million, or 26.1% of net sales, compared to $93.1 million, or 21.9% in the prior-year period, reflecting higher marketing expenses and normalized incentive-based compensation[45] - Selling, general and administrative expenses for the fiscal year ended March 30, 2024, were $416.2 million, or 25.0% of net sales, up from $378.8 million, or 22.9% in the prior year[48] Margin Analysis - The decrease in gross profit rate of 70 basis points was driven by 230 basis points of deleverage in buying, occupancy, and distribution center costs[37] - The increase in merchandise margin rate was driven by a 160 basis-point improvement in freight expense and supply chain efficiencies as a percentage of net sales[37]

Core Viewpoint - Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. is expected to experience a decline in its revenue and earnings performance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, with significant challenges impacting its financial outlook [1][2]. Revenue Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is projected at $383.7 million, indicating a decline of 9.9% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company anticipates a total sales decline of 9.3-11.7% for the quarter, driven by various operational challenges [6]. Earnings Outlook - Analysts project earnings of 89 cents per share, reflecting a substantial decrease of 41.8% from the same period last year [2]. - The consensus estimate for earnings has been revised downward by 3.3% over the past 30 days, indicating cautious sentiment among analysts [2]. Key Challenges - Boot Barn faces several challenges, including soft same-store sales, e-commerce difficulties, regional variability, and a tough operational landscape [3]. - Management expects a decline in same-store sales ranging from 6.3% to 9%, with a notable 13% drop in e-commerce same-store sales due to reduced marketing spend [4]. Gross Margin and Cost Pressures - The company forecasts a gross margin of 34.8-35.2%, down from 36.6% in the previous year, attributed to a projected 310 basis points of deleverage in costs [6]. Strategic Initiatives - Despite the challenges, Boot Barn is focused on enhancing customer engagement and brand loyalty through initiatives such as expanding its store network and leveraging innovative AI technologies [7]. Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model indicates that Boot Barn does not have a favorable outlook for an earnings beat this quarter, with a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00% [8].

Wall Street analysts forecast that Boot Barn (BOOT) will report quarterly earnings of $0.89 per share in its upcoming release, pointing to a year-over-year decline of 41.8%. It is anticipated that revenues will amount to $382.86 million, exhibiting a decline of 10.1% compared to the year-ago quarter.Over the last 30 days, there has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts over the course of thi ...

If you are looking for a stock that has a solid history of beating earnings estimates and is in a good position to maintain the trend in its next quarterly report, you should consider Boot Barn (BOOT) . This company, which is in the Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, shows potential for another earnings beat.This Western apparel and footwear retailer has an established record of topping earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The company boasts an average surprise fo ...