全球能源软实力格局正在重塑：BP股价暴跌27%引发巨头折价收购潮，背后是传统石油秩序松动、地 缘博弈加剧与低碳技术竞赛的三重角力。激进投资者推动治理变革，这场并购不仅是资本运作，更是对 未来能源定价权的战略布局。 有报道称，多家竞争对手石油公司正考虑折价收购英国石油（BP）。壳牌、雪佛龙、埃克森美孚和道 达尔能源等企业已对潜在交易进行评估。BP股价表现持续低迷，过去一年累计下跌27%，使其成为收 购目标。持有BP股份的激进投资者埃利奥特管理公司（Elliott Management）认为，该公司资产被低 估，易成为收购对象。从邓正红软实力思想的视角分析，多家石油企业折价收购英国石油的潜在交易， 本质上是全球能源软实力格局重塑的微观映射。这一动向涉及结构性权力转移、策略性博弈和资源整合 三个层面的深层逻辑。 技术互补与低碳变革加速。BP在海上风电、生物燃料等领域的积累可为收购方补足清洁能源技术短 板。例如，道达尔通过并购实现光伏装机量跃升的案例表明，横向整合已成为企业快速构建综合能源服 务能力的关键路径。这种"传统产能变现+新兴技术吸纳"的双重收益，正是软实力视角下资源整合的核 心价值。 此次潜在收购事件揭示了 ...

Group 1: Trade Deal Impact - The stock market experienced a historic rebound following President Trump's announcement of a new trade deal with the United Kingdom, aimed at reducing trade barriers [1] - Several British ADRs are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to the trade deal [1] Group 2: Nomad Foods (NOMD) - Nomad Foods is the largest frozen food company in Europe and has been identified as a strong buy with a Zacks Rank 1, having increased by 16% in 2025 [2] - EPS estimates for Nomad Foods have been trending higher, with an expected rise of 11% this year and a projected increase of 7% in fiscal 2026 to $2.31 [3][4] - The stock trades under $20 at a forward earnings multiple of 8.9X, indicating a favorable valuation [3] Group 3: Rolls-Royce (RYCEY) - Rolls-Royce is positioned favorably with a Zacks Rank 2, as U.K. car tariffs will be reduced from 25% to 10% on the first 100,000 imported vehicles [4][5] - The stock is currently priced around $10, presenting a favorable risk-to-reward scenario [5] Group 4: BP (BP) - BP, formerly British Petroleum, is trading under $30 and offers a 6.75% annual dividend yield, making it a potential buy-the-dip candidate [6][7] - The elimination of higher tariffs on steel and aluminum is expected to benefit BP significantly, as it faced issues related to infrastructure projects [7][8]

智通财经APP了解到，如果欧洲能源巨头壳牌(SHEL.US)收购另一欧洲能源巨头英国石油公司 (BP.US)，这将成为欧洲历史上最大规模的交易之一，并首次创造出足以挑战全球石油行业领袖——埃 克森美孚(XOM.US)和雪佛龙(CVX.US)的欧洲石油巨擘，整合后的油气超级巨无霸上游石油和天然气产 量将达到每天近 500 万桶油当量，届时可能大幅超过上述两大石油行业领袖。 尽管英国石油当前的处境并不理想——过去一年其股价下跌近三分之一大幅跑输欧洲基准股指以及油气 行业的同行们，投资者们普遍对其能源转型以及扭亏为盈计划信心不足。但是，该笔潜在的大型收购交 易对壳牌具有颠覆性的意义。 然而，此次超级大规模合并将面临重大挑战，包括英国石油公司本身的高额债务和负债、潜在的反垄断 竞争问题以及需要被迫出售大量资产，这些都可能成为此项大规模交易的障碍。 石油巨擘即将诞生 瑞银集团的分析师团队指出，两家总部设在伦敦的石油巨头合并后，其上游石油和天然气整体产量将接 近日均 500万桶油当量，较壳牌目前的大约270万桶/日猛烈增长85%，从而成为全球最大规模的归属于 投资者们的油气生产巨头。作为对比，总部位于美国的全球最大规模油 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shell plc is exploring a potential acquisition of BP plc, which could be one of the largest mergers in the oil industry, driven by BP's declining market capitalization and strategic missteps [1][2][4]. Group 1: Shell's Interest in BP - Shell is evaluating the strategic and financial feasibility of acquiring BP, with discussions gaining momentum due to BP's nearly 22.4% decline in share value over the past year [2][3]. - Shell's market capitalization is approximately $200.5 billion, more than double BP's $76 billion, indicating a significant performance gap between the two companies [3]. - Shell is preparing for various scenarios, including the possibility of competing bids, allowing it to act swiftly if necessary [3][9]. Group 2: BP's Challenges - BP has faced declining investor confidence and strategic challenges, particularly following a leadership transition that shifted focus from green energy back to oil and gas [4][5]. - The recent drop in Brent crude prices below $70 per barrel has complicated BP's cash flow outlook, leading to increased pressure from activist investors like Elliott Investment Management, which holds a 5% stake in BP [5][4]. - BP's restructuring efforts and weakened valuation may make it more vulnerable to acquisition interest [9]. Group 3: Shell's Strategic Direction - Under CEO Wael Sawan, Shell is undergoing a strategic overhaul, focusing on streamlining operations and prioritizing its core fossil fuel portfolio [6]. - Shell's CEO emphasized that any major acquisition must enhance free cash flow per share and align with long-term financial objectives [7]. - The recent acquisition of Pavilion Energy reflects Shell's strategy of pursuing targeted, high-return investments, which could be further amplified by a potential BP acquisition [8][10].

BP p.l.c. (NYSE: BP ) is a century—old giant that stands at the origins of global energy. Its journey began back in 1909 with drilling rigs in Persia, and today BP is a complex integrated structure covering the entireMy professional background spans multiple continents and includes experience in private banking, corporate finance, and strategic advisory. For several years, I developed and led a private banking department in Dubai, where I crafted tailored investment solutions to meet the unique needs of aff ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Oil and Gas Integrated International industry includes companies involved in upstream, midstream, and downstream operations across various global regions [3] - Integrated energy companies are increasingly focusing on renewable energy to transition towards lower emissions and reduced carbon intensity [3] Current Challenges - Trade tensions are creating uncertainty in the business environment, potentially leading to economic slowdowns [1][4] - A slowdown in oil production growth is negatively impacting upstream revenues, as companies prioritize returning capital to shareholders over production expansion [5] - Growing demand for renewable energy is expected to decrease reliance on fossil fuels, adversely affecting integrated energy firms that primarily produce and transport oil and gas [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Oil and Gas Integrated International industry ranks 183, placing it in the bottom 26% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating bearish near-term prospects [7][8] - Over the past year, the industry has underperformed compared to the broader Zacks Oil - Energy sector and the S&P 500, with a decline of 11.2% versus the S&P 500's gain of 11.5% [9][10] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio of 3.97X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 15.32X and the sector's 4.38X [13] - Historical trading ranges for the industry have been between 2.74X and 6.54X over the past five years, with a median of 4.11X [14] Key Companies - BP has initiated production from three key projects, aiming to increase its production capacity by 100 MBbl/D, with a long-term goal of 250 MBbl/D by 2027 [18] - ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources enhances its production capabilities in the Permian Basin, known for low production costs [22] - Chevron is a major producer in the Permian Basin, maintaining a conservative capital spending approach that supports strong cash flow generation [24]

知情人士透露，相关讨论尚处初期阶段，壳牌可能选择专注于股票回购和补强型收购，而非大型合并。 此外，知情人士补充称，另有多家能源巨头也在评估是否参与竞购英国石油。 业内人士表示，壳牌在做出任何决定之前，都在密切关注英国石油不断恶化的公司市值(过去一年下跌 了近30%)。壳牌的出价可能取决于英国石油公司市值的进一步恶化，或者英国石油对外界兴趣持开放 态度的信号。另一种选择是，如果有其他竞标者率先出现，壳牌可以利用目前的准备迅速采取行动。 智通财经APP获悉，据媒体援引知情人士消息报道，壳牌(SHEL.US)正在探索收购其竞争对手英国石油 (BP.US)的可能性，尽管该公司尚未采取行动，而是在观望油价和英国石油股价的持续下跌是否会使这 一交易更具吸引力。报道还称，壳牌在最近几周就此类大型合并的战略和财务可行性向顾问进行了咨 询。 英国石油长期表现低迷主要与其前任首席执行官Bernard Looney推行的净零战略有关。继任者Murray Auchincloss今年2月宣布战略调整，包括重新聚焦石油业务、削减季度股票回购规模及承诺出售资产。 然而，更广泛的市场挑战，包括OPEC+加速增产和美国总统特朗普发起的贸易战引 ...

Core Viewpoint - BP is currently facing challenges due to weaker refining margins impacting Q1 earnings and uncertainty surrounding its strategic reset [1] Financial Performance - BP's Q1 earnings have been negatively affected by reduced refining margins, indicating potential operational difficulties [1] Strategic Outlook - The market is uncertain about BP's strategy reset, which may lead to volatility in investor sentiment and stock performance [1]

Last Tuesday, BP plc (BP) reported first-quarter 2025 earnings, which missed expectations. Lower liquid price realizations and weaker refining margins resulted in the setback. However, the British energy giant discussed new upstream project launches and discoveries, leading to an improved core business outlook.Before analyzing the factors, let’s first review the first-quarter results.BP’s Q1 Earnings SnapshotBP reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of 53 cents per American Depositary Share on a replaceme ...

英国石油公司欧股下跌2%，此前券商下调其目标价。 ...