近期有市场分析人士表示，2026年东亚地区主要炼厂预计将持续增购美国轻质低硫原油。此举既为拓宽 原料供应渠道、分散地缘政治风险、增厚炼油利润，同时也旨在维系与美国政府的外交关系。 泰国、韩国的炼厂同样将采购美国原油作为战略举措，以此降低对重质含硫原油供应方的依赖。韩国蔚 山一家大型炼厂的原料经理表示："掺炼美国轻质低硫原油不仅能平抑重质含硫原油进口的价格波动风 险，还与企业拓宽原料渠道、提升整体炼油利润的目标相契合。"韩国国家石油公司数据显示，2025年 韩国预计将继续成为亚洲美国原油最大买家，全年采购量达1.36亿桶。泰国海关数据显示，该国是东南 亚地区美国原油进口量最大的国家，2025年前10个月美国西得克萨斯州米德兰原油日进口量达14.85万 桶，同比增幅高达31%。 选择美国原油的另一大原因是经济性。随着布伦特与迪拜原油期货价差大幅收窄，且美国西得克萨斯州 米德兰原油价格低于主流重质含硫原油，炼油利润与贸易经济效益正持续向采购美国轻质低硫原油的方 向倾斜。东亚地区炼厂原料经理与新加坡交易员均指出，尽管美国原油运距更长，但凭借其优异品质与 更高的中馏分油收率，性价比优势十分显著。 普氏资讯数据显示，20 ...

美国总统特朗普威胁对与伊朗有商业往来的国家征收 25%的关税。外交部发言人 毛宁回应表示，中方将坚定维护自身正当合法权益。对于七国集团财长同意加快 减少从中国进口稀土，毛宁指出，中方维护关键矿产全球产供链稳定与安全的立 场没有变化，各方都有责任这样做。美国财政部表示，美国 2025 年 12 月预算赤 字为 1450 亿美元，创当月历史新高，市场预期为 1500 亿美元，而 2024 年 12 月 的赤字为 870 亿美元。美国 2026 财年迄今赤字为 6020 亿美元，而 2025 财年同 期赤字为 7110 亿美元。2025 年 12 月海关净收入 278.9 亿美元。国内商品期市 走势分化，贵金属涨幅居前，沪银涨 5.9%。航运期货跌幅居前，集运指数（欧线） 跌 5.45%。新能源材料走势分化，多晶硅跌 4.45%；碳酸锂涨 7.44%，盘中一度涨 停，突破 17 万元/吨关口，年内累计涨幅接近 40%。 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 14 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：银价油价齐升 重点品种：贵金属、股指、原油 贵金属：贵金属冲高回落。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压 力缓解，就 ...

在合作期内，CPC将以现有炼油设施和土地作为出资，持有项目股份；协议期满后，全部资产将移交给 CPC。斯方表示，该项目有助于加强能源安全，减少成品油进口依赖，并提升整体经济安全水平。 CPC主席拉贾卡鲁纳表示，目前相关企业正在接受评审，后续将进入遴选阶段。 斯里兰卡《每日镜报》1月12日报道，斯锡兰石油公司(CPC)近日表示，包括来自中国、印度、美国、 日本等国家在内的20家企业已响应斯方就萨普加斯坎达炼油厂扩建项目发出的意向书(EOI)邀请。 根据项目文件，该项目旨在将现有炼油能力从每日5万桶提升至约10万桶，以显著增强斯国内石油炼制 能力。项目将由入选投资方负责设计、融资和建设，并通过合资方式与CPC共同负责运营和维护。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's announcement of a 25% punitive tariff on all countries engaging in trade with Iran, emphasizing the strategic ambiguity and potential implications for global trade dynamics [1][3][10]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The punitive tariffs are aimed at countries with "commercial ties" to Iran, creating uncertainty for nations like India and Turkey, which are already managing complex supply chains [5][7]. - This "long-arm jurisdiction" approach simplifies global supply chains into a binary choice, pressuring countries to align with U.S. policies or face tariffs [7][12]. Group 2: U.S.-Iran Trade Dynamics - The significant trade volume between China and Iran is viewed as a challenge to U.S. interests, with the U.S. aiming to disrupt this relationship to reinforce its geopolitical strategy in the Asia-Pacific region [9][10]. - The tariffs could impose hidden costs on Chinese goods, creating a perception that products from China are "tainted" if they are linked to Iranian trade [12][18]. Group 3: Political Context - The timing of the tariff announcement coincides with legal scrutiny over Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, suggesting a strategy to create a "national security crisis" to bolster his authority [14][16]. - The article posits that Trump's aggressive tariff strategy may backfire, leading to a shift away from dollar dependence and the establishment of alternative economic systems among emerging markets [25][27]. Group 4: Global Economic Response - Countries like Iran have developed mechanisms to circumvent U.S. dollar dominance, including expanding the use of the yuan and barter systems, which could insulate them from U.S. sanctions [21][23]. - The article warns that Trump's tariff strategy may inadvertently accelerate the formation of a parallel economic system that excludes U.S. participation, potentially undermining the established international order [25][27].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing a weak trend due to oversupply and seasonal demand decline, leading to a divergence in gasoline and diesel prices and refining profits [1][4][6]. Group 1: International Oil Price Analysis - In December, WTI crude oil average price decreased by 2.71% and Brent by 3.19%, maintaining a weak trend due to oversupply and geopolitical risks [1]. - The outlook for January 2026 suggests further decline in oil prices, driven by a loose fundamental environment and geopolitical factors [1]. Group 2: Domestic Oil Price Transmission - The fluctuation in crude oil prices directly impacts domestic refining sectors, affecting product prices and profit margins [2][4]. - In December, gasoline prices in Shandong experienced a slight increase of 0.34% despite a cumulative drop of 70 CNY/ton, while diesel prices fell by 4.86% with a cumulative drop of 515 CNY/ton [4][6]. Group 3: Gasoline and Diesel Price Trends - Gasoline market prices showed a narrow fluctuation, while diesel prices experienced a downward trend due to seasonal demand decline [4][6]. - The average gasoline crack spread in Shandong rose by 18.82% to 852.69 CNY/ton, while the diesel crack spread fell by 17.95% to 709.74 CNY/ton [4][6]. Group 4: Wholesale and Retail Price Analysis - The average theoretical wholesale-retail price spread for gasoline decreased by 6.8% to 1933.13 CNY/ton, while diesel's increased by 16.91% to 1404.17 CNY/ton [8][10]. - Actual retail price spreads for gasoline and diesel were reported at 1268 CNY/ton and 998.8 CNY/ton respectively, with minor fluctuations in theoretical profits [8][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The forecast for January indicates a continuation of the divergence in refining profits and price spreads for gasoline and diesel, with gasoline prices expected to slightly rise and diesel prices to decline [9][11].

我国首次明确政府投资基金布局和投向。国家发改委等四部门联合发布《关于加 强政府投资基金布局规划和投向指导的工作办法》，要求基金支持重大战略、重 点领域和市场难以有效配置资源的薄弱环节，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合， 着力培育新兴支柱产业，不得投向限制类、淘汰类以及政策明令禁止的产业领域。 当地时间 1 月 12 日下午，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗进行 商业往来的国家，其与美国的所有商业往来都将面临 25%的关税。该命令即日起 生效。国内商品期货市场收盘大面积上涨，贵金属、航运期货、新能源材料、基 本金属大幅走高，沪银涨 14.42%，集运指数（欧线）涨 11.3%，沪锡涨停。基本 面改善叠加资金情绪高涨，除即将交割的 2601 合约，碳酸锂期货其他所有合约 全部封死涨停板。 重点品种：贵金属、碳酸锂、股指 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 13 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：商品普涨，有色银光 贵金属：贵金属再度反弹。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压 力缓解，就业仍然疲软，美联储降息预期强化，全球同步处于降息周期，宽松的 流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有力支撑。对于黄金而言，美 ...

首席点评： 商品普涨，有色银光 我国首次明确政府投资基金布局和投向。国家发改委等四部门联合发布《关于加强政府投资基金布局规划和投向指导的工 作办法》，要求基金支持重大战略、重点领域和市场难以有效配置资源的薄弱环节，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合， 着力培育新兴支柱产业，不得投向限制类、淘汰类以及政策明令禁止的产业领域。当地时间 1 月 12 日下午，美国总统特朗 普在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国家，其与美国的所有商业往来都将面临 25% 的关税。该命令即日起生 效。国内商品期货市场收盘大面积上涨，贵金属、航运期货、新能源材料、基本金属大幅走高，沪银涨 14.42% ，集运指 数（欧线）涨 11.3% ，沪锡涨停。基本面改善叠加资金情绪高涨，除即将交割的 2601 合约，碳酸锂期货其他所有合约全部 封死涨停板。 股指 ： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指再度上涨，传媒板块领涨，银行板块领跌，市场成交额 3.15 万亿元。资金方 面， 1 月 8 日融资余额增加 159.44 亿元至 26031.55 亿元。我们预计 2026 年供给侧改革持续并将推升大宗商品的价格并带 动资源型股票上涨。 12 月 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【聚酯周报】 地缘政治影响原油，聚酯偏强运行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-12 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 聚酯：原油推动，聚酯预期强势 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | PX市场延续强势，主要受投机资金提前布局2026年多头头寸推动。当前支撑因素已超越纯金融驱动：汽油调合利润回落使重整装置在芳烃抽提与汽油生 | | | | 产之间接近盈亏平衡，而PX-MX价差扩大至150美元以上、PX-石脑油价差一度达370美元，显著改善了PX生产经济性。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 国内PTA维持高开工，内需有所回落，聚酯工厂的减产对PTA形成了负反馈。PTA消费量维持高位，但主流聚酯共产提前检修并且在销售PTA原料，基差 | | | | 快速走弱。 | | 库存 | ...

Core Viewpoint - India's largest private oil refining company, Reliance Industries, has denied recent reports regarding the receipt of Russian crude oil at its Jamnagar refinery, labeling the claims as false [1] Group 1: Company Statements - Reliance Industries stated that it has not received any Russian crude oil shipments in the past 20 days and has not booked any Russian crude deliveries for January [1] - The company previously suspended all Russian crude oil shipments just one day before the latest U.S. sanctions on the Russian energy sector came into effect [1] Group 2: Historical Context - Reliance Industries was once the largest importer of Russian crude oil in India, with a long-term supply agreement that could provide approximately 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day to the Jamnagar refinery [1] - Despite the company's claims, ship tracking data indicates that India's overall imports of Russian crude oil remain significant but have decreased compared to levels before November 2025 [1] Group 3: Market Data - Bloomberg reported, citing Kpler data, that three tankers carrying about 2.2 million barrels of crude oil were heading towards Reliance Industries' refinery, although the company insists that the sellers of these shipments are not on the U.S. sanctions blacklist [1]

Core Viewpoint - From 2025 onwards, Cangzhou Refining has implemented a quality and efficiency enhancement strategy, achieving operational performance that exceeds target objectives and improving financial indicators such as asset-liability ratio and operating cash flow [1] Group 1: Operational Strategy - Cangzhou Refining has adopted comprehensive budget management as a key approach to deepen system optimization and cost control, aiming to win the efficiency battle [1] - The company has established a daily tracking and reporting mechanism for production, inventory, delivery, and settlement data to ensure a smooth production-sales-settlement chain, targeting "fast production, fast delivery, fast settlement" [1] Group 2: Financial Management - The company has focused on key aspects of cash flow management through four dimensions: accelerating cash recovery, optimizing payments, strengthening supervision, and dynamic control, resulting in improved financial conditions and the best asset-liability ratio in recent years [1] - Non-production expenditures have been reduced by over 10% year-on-year through initiatives targeting 36 expense categories, including environmental, office, and financial costs [1] Group 3: Optimization Projects - Cangzhou Refining has formed a "three-in-one" optimization framework and established a large optimization team, launching 16 production and operational optimization projects through a "project solicitation + leaderboard" approach [1] - Regular specialized meetings are held to ensure thorough calculations of optimization benefits, promoting a cost culture and conducting activities aimed at diagnosing expenses [1]