全文阅读时间约为10分钟。 作者：洪晟、周毅、安梄珍 近期趋势与市场展望 战略路径：适应新现实并确保生存 为应对炼油与石化行业日益严峻的挑战，企业正聚焦于成本削减、产能优化整合与数字化转型。炼油 厂优先推动运营优化与效率提升；而石化企业则将投资转向创新领域，以获取额外利润空间并满足不 断变化的市场需求。 在当今日益复杂且不确定的环境中，运营转型已非可选项，而是关乎生存的关键第一步。企业必须运 用多种杠杆强化运营、提升盈利能力，并建立抵御市场波动与结构性变革的韧性。例如，东亚领先炼 油厂已在2~3年内成功实施端到端数字化转型。这些系统性举措成效显著，实现每桶利润提升0.9至1.3 美元。 对石化企业（尤其在中国）而言，裂解装置竞争力差异显著，且与规模无必然关联。要在这一挑战性 市场中确保长期生存能力，企业需采取全局性主动策略。为保持竞争力并成为"剩"者为王的赢家，企 当前，炼油市场增长放缓，预计到2030年炼油利润率将下降约5%至30%。这一下滑趋势主要由于需求 增长放缓、电动汽车的普及以及炼油产能持续扩张，打破了供需平衡，给行业带来挑战。预计亚洲炼 油厂开工率将显著波动；长期来看，随着产业逐步适应不断演变的市 ...

全球炼化及烯烃行业格局展望 20250825 摘要 全球炼油毛利率预计在 2030 年左右达峰值后下滑，受地缘政治、碳关 税和新能源转型等因素影响，不经济炼厂或将关闭或转型为生物燃料生 产设施。已有约 150 万吨/天的炼厂宣布关停或转型，中国占 50%。 预测到 2035 年，全球约 22%的炼油产能（1,840 万桶/天）面临关停 风险，主要集中在欧洲和中东地区。国家石油公司（NOC）因政府支持， 关停意愿较低，而国际石油公司（IOC）更倾向于关闭或出售盈利微薄 的炼油厂。 2020 年后，全球乙烯投资主要由中国主导，民营企业如龙盛和恒力大 量进入该领域。2025-2028 年，中石油、中石化等大型炼油公司将主 导投资，转向增产石化产品，通过加氢处理重油以生产更多石脑油。 全球约 40%-50%的乙烯资产处于负利润或盈亏平衡状态，行业处于周 期底部。中国自 2017 年以来大量新建炼化项目，导致全球供应过剩。 欧洲因能源价格高企及碳税问题，面临较大压力。 全球约有 6,300 万吨乙烯产能面临关闭风险，占 2025 年全球总产能的 27%，高中风险产能约占 55%，主要集中在亚洲和欧洲。中国约有 1,10 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.

| | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [TG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | ,烯数据 FR | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:Z0017251 2025/08/25 | | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格证:F3066728 | | | 指标 | or C | 2025/08/21 | 2025/08/22 | 变动值 | 一现货综述 | | | 原油& | WTI | 62. 35 | 63.52 | 1. 17 | | | | 石脑油 | Brent | 65. 79 | 67.67 | 1.88 | | | | | 石脑油 | 574.5 | 584.5 | 110 | | | | | 乙烯 CFR东北亚 | | | | 苯乙烯:江苏市场涨价。成本存支撑,原油、纯苯整 | | 游 | | | 825 | 830 | 5 | 理,苯乙烯市场有装置检修消息和补货成交提振,现 | | | 纯苯 | CFR中国 | 747 ...

韩国承诺增购美国原油为何恐难兑现？ 这使得韩国陷入两难境地：要么通过购买无法完全消纳的美国原油来取悦其最重要的盟友，要么维持本 国能源体系的运行逻辑而承受更多贸易报复风险。实践中最可能出现的结果是，韩国炼油企业将小幅增 加美国原油采购，把多余的西德克萨斯中质原油与中东原油进行混合调配——这种折中方案虽能保障炼 厂生产平衡，却未能满足美国的预期。无论采取哪种方式，妥协的代价都相当高昂。韩国的处境令人辛 酸，同时也在提醒我们：尽管政客们欲强力达成贸易协议，却无法改写炼油行业的经济规律与运行法 则。 翻译 | 陈依然（微信部） 审校 | 张 颜（微信部） 编辑 | 陈依然（微信部） 【Oilprice网 8月23日报道】 作为美国十大贸易伙伴国之一，韩国已成为华盛顿关税政策改革中最引人瞩目的目标之一。经过数月 的"拉锯式"外交谈判，美国最终宣布自8月7日起对韩国进口商品征收15%的关税——虽较最初提议的 25%有所下调，但仍将对韩国这个亚洲第四大经济体造成冲击。作为交换条件，首尔方面同意加大对美 国项目的投资力度，并承诺采购价值1000亿美元的美国能源产品，该协议旨在缓解关税措施带来的冲 击。 然而，这项能源协议的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - South Africa is a middle - income developing country and the most economically developed and industrialized nation in Africa, with a relatively complete financial and legal system and good infrastructure, but suffers from unbalanced development among economic sectors and regions [1][9]. - The manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and service industries are well - developed and serve as the four pillars of the economy. The manufacturing industry has a complete range of sectors, while emerging export industries like automobile manufacturing are growing strongly [2][11]. - South Africa is rich in mineral resources, being a major global producer and exporter of gold, platinum - group metals, and chromium [2][11]. - In the energy field, South Africa's liquid fuel production mainly relies on synthetic fuels, and it has limited natural gas resources, relying on imports. Coal production and consumption are relatively stable, and power generation mainly depends on fossil fuels, especially coal, while non - hydro renewable energy has great growth potential [17][21][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 South Africa National Overview 3.1.1 Geographical Location - South Africa, with an area of about 1.22 million square kilometers, is located at the southernmost tip of the African continent, bordering the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, and neighboring several countries. It has a coastline of about 3000 kilometers and a tropical savanna climate in most areas [8]. 3.1.2 Economic Overview - In 2022, the population was 62 million, with four major ethnic groups. English and Afrikaans are the common languages, and about 80% of the population believes in Christianity [9]. - In 2024, the nominal GDP was $400.2 billion, and the per - capita nominal GDP was $6333. The economy has been sluggish in recent years, but the government has launched initiatives to promote growth [11]. - The manufacturing industry's output value accounts for about 17.2% of GDP, covering various fields. The mining industry is rich in resources, with over 70 types of minerals mined, and diamond production accounts for about 9% of the world's total [2][11]. - South Africa is a free - trade country, with China as its largest trading partner. It mainly exports minerals, precious metals, and transportation equipment, and imports mechanical and electrical products, minerals, etc. [12]. 3.1.3 Historical Politics - South Africa has a complex colonial history. After a long - term apartheid policy, it achieved democratic elections in 1994. The new constitution implements the separation of powers, and South Africa pursues an independent foreign policy and is active in international affairs [13][14][15]. 3.2 Oil and Other Liquids - In 2023, the total production of liquid fuels was about 108,000 barrels per day, mainly synthetic fuels. Only two of the four refineries are currently operating, and there are GTL and CTL plants [17][18]. - South Africa does not export crude oil or condensate and relies on imports. From 2014 - 2023, it imported an average of 316,000 barrels per day. In 2023, 66% of imports came from African countries, with Nigeria being the largest source [32][34]. - South Africa is both an importer and exporter of petroleum products. From 2020 - 2023, it imported an average of 316,000 barrels per day and exported an average of 34,000 barrels per day [37]. 3.3 Natural Gas - From 2014 - 2023, the average annual production of dry natural gas was about 27 Bcf, and the average annual consumption was about 171 Bcf. It relies on imports from Mozambique due to limited domestic resources [21]. - The PetroSA GTL refinery stopped operating in 2020 due to insufficient gas supply. In December 2023, PetroSA announced cooperation with Gazprombank to restart it [22][24]. - South Africa plans to expand its gas pipeline network and build LNG infrastructure to diversify imports and increase consumption [43]. 3.4 Coal - In 2022, the proven coal reserves were about 11 billion short tons. Production and consumption were relatively stable, with production of about 269 million short tons and consumption of about 192 million short tons [25]. - The Secunda CTL refinery uses coal to produce synthetic fuels and chemicals, with a total capacity of 150,000 barrels per day [25]. - South Africa imports little coal but is an important exporter. From 2013 - 2022, it imported an average of 2.7 million short tons per year and exported an average of 83.9 million short tons per year [44]. 3.5 Electricity - In 2022, the total installed capacity was 63.4 GW, and the power generation was about 230 GWh. Fossil - fuel power generation accounted for 76% of the total capacity and 88% of the total generation, mainly from coal [27]. - Non - hydro renewable energy has great growth potential. The REIPPPP has procured about 6.4 GW of renewable energy from 112 independent power producers [31]. - The JETP announced an $8.5 billion fund to support South Africa's decarbonization efforts [31]. 3.6 Energy Trade 3.6.1 Oil and Other Liquids - South Africa relies on imports for crude oil and condensate, and is both an importer and exporter of petroleum products [32][37]. 3.6.2 Natural Gas - South Africa imports natural gas through pipelines from Mozambique and plans to expand its pipeline network and build LNG infrastructure [38][43]. 3.6.3 Coal - South Africa has low coal imports and is a major coal exporter, mainly exporting through the RBCT [44]. 3.6.4 Electricity - As a member of the SAPP, South Africa trades electricity with other members. From 2013 - 2022, it exported an average of 14.5 GWh per year and imported an average of 10.3 GWh per year [46].

石化和炼油行业反内卷，对化工行业影响几何？ 20250820 摘要 石化行业面临国内外市场产品价格下降和激烈竞争，以及反倾销诉讼的 挑战。国家通过摸排产能、淘汰重复装置和技术升级等措施，推动节能 降碳和产业结构优化，反内卷成为年度重点任务。 产能预警报告显示，炼油、丙烯、PVC 等 14 种产品为高风险，纯碱、 乙二醇等 10 种为较高风险，存在结构性过剩问题，低端产品过剩而高 端产品依赖进口，需淘汰老旧装置并引进先进技术。 民营企业在石化行业转型升级中更具优势，其设备新技术先进且盈利状 况良好，更愿意投入节能改造。央国企则面临更大的转型压力，需对老 旧装置进行核心改造升级。 碳达峰前，石化行业新增产能包括一次炼油能力增加 4,000 万吨，代表 先进技术和方向，不会导致过剩。乙烯等基础原料的新增装置将为"十 五五"期间高质量发展奠定基础。 石化产业链发展依赖政策引导和下游市场需求，鼓励炼化一体化、延长 产业链。医药、生物、航空航天、新能源等新兴市场需求增加，推动可 降解材料 BDO 和光伏材料 POE 等产品快速发展。 Q&A 石化行业在反内卷政策背景下的现状和发展趋势如何？ 反内卷政策对石化行业来说是一个 ...

Summary of Petrochemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **petrochemical industry** in China, discussing the impact of domestic "anti-involution" policies and overseas capacity reductions [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Policy Impact**: The anti-involution policy is expected to last for 3-4 years, accelerating the elimination of outdated capacities, particularly small and old private refining units, such as those with capacities below 2 million tons and over 20 years old [1][2][9]. - **Capacity Management**: China's refining capacity is nearing the 1.1 billion tons threshold, with future measures focusing on capacity reduction rather than maintaining total levels. Ethylene capacity has increased significantly, but coal-based ethylene glycol projects face economic and energy consumption challenges [1][6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The concentration of propane dehydrogenation units has led to an oversupply of propylene, primarily due to decisions made during the dual control period in 2022 [7]. - **Development Trends**: The industry is shifting towards fine chemicals and high-end materials, as merely producing ethylene is no longer sufficient to meet market demands. Outdated units, typically with a lifecycle of 20 years, are prioritized for elimination [1][11]. - **Overseas Capacity Reductions**: Frequent capacity reductions in overseas ethylene production are attributed to economic inefficiencies and aging facilities, particularly in Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [1][29]. Additional Important Insights - **Government Initiatives**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is expected to release a detailed list of policies for the petrochemical and chemical industries by September 2025, including specific requirements for capacity elimination and transformation [2]. - **Supply Chain Challenges**: European ethylene production faces upstream raw material supply shortages, leading to reliance on imports, which increases transportation costs and disrupts supply-demand balance [4][22]. - **Investment Needs**: Significant investments are required for energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives, with costs for upgrading old facilities potentially reaching billions of RMB [18][28]. - **Regional Variations**: Different responses to environmental pressures are observed between state-owned enterprises and private firms, with state-owned enterprises more proactive in adopting technological upgrades [9][14]. - **Future Outlook**: The petrochemical industry is expected to undergo a rebalancing, with small outdated units being phased out and larger units requiring upgrades. This transition will benefit companies with lower costs and diverse product offerings [26][27]. Conclusion The conference highlighted the ongoing transformation within the petrochemical industry, driven by stringent government policies aimed at reducing outdated capacities and promoting high-quality development. The focus on fine chemicals and high-end materials indicates a significant shift in production strategies, while overseas market dynamics continue to influence domestic supply and demand.

Core Insights - The global oil market is undergoing significant changes, with China emerging as the only major buyer exempt from secondary tariffs on Russian oil, leading to a surge in low-priced Russian oil flowing to China [1][5][25] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the U.S., India, and Russia's interests intertwining, indicating a new international trade order [1][5] Group 1: Oil Trade Dynamics - In Q1 2025, Russian oil exports to China via pipelines surged by 43% year-on-year, reaching an average of 750,000 barrels per day [3][19] - Following the U.S. implementation of secondary tariffs on Russian oil, India faced a significant increase in tariffs, leading to a drastic reduction in its Russian oil imports from 1.18 million barrels per day to less than 400,000 barrels per day [5][7] - China's daily imports of Urals crude oil from Russia approached 75,000 barrels in August, nearly double the amount earlier in the year, with several coastal refineries placing new orders [7][19] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude has widened, with the cost of Urals crude imported by China being over 15% lower than Brent prices [9][19] - Chinese refineries are rapidly expanding their profit margins and capturing market share in South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe due to the low prices of Russian oil [9][21] - The U.S. is cautious about imposing tariffs on China due to the deep economic interdependence between the two nations, which complicates the potential impact of sanctions [11][17] Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - The U.S. secondary tariffs on India are seen as a warning against India's strategic autonomy in the global energy landscape, while the U.S. maintains a more restrained approach towards China [11][15] - The European Union has expressed concerns over potential reductions in Chinese refined oil exports, fearing a rise in energy prices [15][25] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy market dynamics are reshaping global supply chains and trade patterns, with China gaining significant influence [21][25] Group 4: Future Outlook - China's oil imports are projected to reach a historical high of over 600 million tons in 2025, while India is diversifying its energy sources to reduce reliance on Russian oil [19][25] - The global energy market is entering a new phase of multi-dimensional competition, with any actions taken by major players likely to trigger chain reactions [15][25] - The evolving energy landscape reflects a balance of power shift, with China leveraging its position to reshape global energy pricing and supply chains [21][25]

格隆汇8月20日｜在经历了短暂的暂停之后，印度的国有炼油企业重新开始购买俄罗斯石油，尽管这个 南亚国家因该贸易需支付更高的关税，并且受到了特朗普政府官员的一连串批评。熟悉此事的交易商表 示，包括印度石油公司和巴拉特石油公司在内的炼油企业在过去两天购买了一些俄罗斯乌拉尔原油货 物。这些交易商要求不透露姓名，因为他们未获授权公开发言。他们补充说，这些货物将于 9 月和 10 月装船。本月早些时候，由于美国施压，国有炼油企业暂停了在那几个月对旗舰级乌拉尔原油的采购。 新德里曾在 7 月下旬要求炼油企业制定计划，以防俄罗斯石油供应中断时转向其他来源。一名官员表 示，这一指令相当于进行情景规划。白宫贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗本周在《金融时报》的一篇专栏文章中 写道，俄罗斯石油采购量的激增是由"印度大型石油游说团体的牟利行为"所驱动的，而非出于国内需 求。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周二表示，"印度最富有的家庭"因购买俄罗斯石油而获益，并重申了 提高对新德里关税的计划。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性 ...