Core Viewpoint - Burlington Stores, Inc. reported a 6% increase in total sales for the first quarter of Fiscal 2025, with comparable store sales remaining flat, while adjusted EPS guidance for the full year is maintained at $8.70 to $9.30, excluding bankruptcy-related lease expenses [1][4][8]. Financial Performance - Total sales reached $2,500 million, a 6% increase compared to the first quarter of Fiscal 2024, following an 11% increase last year [4][5]. - Comparable store sales were flat, consistent with the midpoint of guidance, and up from a 2% increase last year [4][5]. - Net income was $101 million, translating to diluted EPS of $1.58, compared to $79 million or $1.22 per share in the same quarter last year [4][20]. - Adjusted EPS increased by 18% to $1.67, exceeding guidance [4][5]. Margins and Expenses - Adjusted EBIT margin increased by 30 basis points, outperforming guidance [4][5]. - Gross margin rate improved to 43.8% from 43.5% year-over-year, with merchandise margin expanding by 20 basis points [5]. - SG&A as a percentage of net sales decreased to 34.7% from 35.0% in the prior year, while adjusted SG&A was 26.8% compared to 27.1% [5]. Inventory and Liquidity - Merchandise inventories rose by 15% to $1,315 million, while comparable store inventories decreased by 8% [6]. - The company ended the quarter with $1,119 million in liquidity, including $371 million in unrestricted cash [9]. Outlook - For Fiscal Year 2025, the company expects total sales to increase by 6% to 8%, with comparable store sales projected to rise by 0% to 2% [7][8]. - Capital expenditures are anticipated to be approximately $950 million, with plans to open around 100 net new stores [8]. - Adjusted EPS is forecasted to be in the range of $8.70 to $9.30, compared to $8.35 last year [8].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project Burlington Stores (BURL) will report quarterly earnings of $1.42 per share, unchanged year over year, with revenues expected to reach $2.53 billion, reflecting a 7.3% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. Group 1: Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upward by 1.2% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3]. Group 2: Revenue Projections - Analysts expect 'Revenues- Net Sales' to be approximately $2.52 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of +7% [5]. - The estimate for 'Revenues- Other revenue' is projected at $4.18 million, suggesting a year-over-year decline of -1.4% [5]. Group 3: Company Metrics and Performance - Analysts estimate 'Stores at period end' to be 1,115, an increase from 1,021 reported in the same quarter last year [5]. - Burlington Stores shares have returned +17.3% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +10.7% change, with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) indicating expected performance in line with the overall market [5].

Core Viewpoint - Burlington Stores (BURL) is anticipated to report flat earnings of $1.42 per share for the quarter ended April 2025, with revenues expected to reach $2.52 billion, reflecting a 6.9% increase year-over-year [3][12]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on May 29, 2025, and could influence the stock price significantly depending on whether the actual results exceed or fall short of expectations [2][3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.17% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4][10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP for Burlington Stores is +3.45%, suggesting a higher likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11][10]. - The company has a Zacks Rank of 3, which indicates a hold position, but combined with a positive Earnings ESP, it suggests a favorable outlook for an earnings beat [11][8]. Historical Performance - Burlington Stores has a strong track record, having beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, including a surprise of +8.24% in the most recent quarter [12][13]. Industry Context - In comparison, Costco (COST) is expected to report earnings of $4.25 per share for the same quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +12.4%, with revenues projected at $63.14 billion, up 7.9% [17]. - Costco's Earnings ESP is -0.61%, indicating a more challenging outlook for beating consensus estimates, despite a history of surpassing expectations in three out of the last four quarters [18].

Core Insights - Burlington Stores, Inc. is set to announce its first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on May 29, with investors keenly observing its performance in a challenging retail environment [1] - The company is expected to report a revenue increase of 6.9% year-over-year, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues at $2.52 billion [2] - However, a decline in earnings per share is anticipated, with the estimate at $1.40, down from $1.42 in the same quarter last year [3] Revenue and Earnings Performance - Burlington Stores is likely to benefit from value-driven consumer behavior, leveraging its off-price model to attract cautious shoppers [4] - The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 17.9%, with an 8.2% outperformance in the last reported quarter [4] Strategic Initiatives - Management is focusing on improving the fashion mix through the "eliminate to elevate" initiative, reallocating space to higher-margin merchandise [5] - The aggressive expansion strategy includes new store openings in high-traffic areas and the ability to adjust inventory based on real-time data [6] Margin Concerns - Despite positive indicators, there are concerns regarding margin contraction, with guidance suggesting a 50-90 basis points decrease in adjusted EBIT margin due to higher marketing spend and incentive compensation [7] Earnings Prediction - The Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for Burlington Stores, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Burlington Stores (BURL) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, continuing a strong trend of surpassing expectations in previous quarters [1]. Earnings Performance - Burlington Stores has consistently exceeded earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 4.45% over the last two quarters [2]. - In the last reported quarter, the company achieved earnings of $4.07 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.76 per share by 8.24% [3]. - In the previous quarter, Burlington was expected to earn $1.54 per share but reported $1.55 per share, resulting in a surprise of 0.65% [3]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Burlington Stores have been trending upward, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [6]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP for Burlington is currently +1.78%, suggesting that analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [9]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) indicates a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that this combination leads to positive surprises nearly 70% of the time [7][9]. Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [8]. - A positive Earnings ESP enhances the predictive power for earnings surprises, while a negative value does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss [10].

Core Insights - Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) shares are currently trading 10% below their 52-week high of $298.89, reached on November 25, 2024, with a recent stock gain of 23.7%, outperforming the Zacks Retail-Discount Stores industry's growth of 7.5% [1] - The company's strategic initiatives and growth prospects have allowed it to outperform the broader Retail-Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 index, which increased by 14.5% and 15.3% respectively in the same period [1] Stock Performance - BURL stock closed at $268.99, trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $237.69 and $260.39, indicating a continued uptrend and positive market sentiment [3] - The stock is currently valued at a low price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 1.44, below the industry average of 1.88 and the sector average of 1.59, suggesting potential for attractive entry points for investors [6] Strategic Initiatives - The implementation of the Burlington 2.0 model has improved operational performance and customer experience by focusing on a curated selection of well-known national brands and premium private labels [9] - Burlington's adaptable merchandising strategy has enhanced responsiveness to market conditions, allowing the company to capitalize on seasonal shopping trends [10] Expansion and Growth Prospects - In fiscal 2024, Burlington opened a net total of 101 new locations, exceeding its store growth targets, with plans to open at least 100 net new stores annually in fiscal 2025 and 2026 [11] - The company has secured prime retail spaces vacated by other retailers, broadening its national footprint and positioning itself to capture a larger share of the off-price retail market [12] Financial Outlook - Burlington forecasts total sales growth of 6% to 8% for fiscal 2025, driven by store openings and a projected flat to 2% increase in comparable store sales [13] - Adjusted earnings per share are projected between $8.70 and $9.30, indicating growth from the $8.35 reported in fiscal 2024 [14] Cost Challenges - Adjusted selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose 4% year over year in the fiscal fourth quarter, reaching $745.6 million, influenced by higher incentive compensation and increased advertising spending [15] - Product sourcing costs increased to $217 million from $210 million in the previous year, impacting overall operational efficiency [16]

Core Viewpoint - Burlington Stores, Inc. will release its first quarter fiscal year 2025 results on May 29, 2025, before the U.S. stock market opens, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss the results [1]. Group 1: Conference Call Details - The U.S. toll-free dial-in for the conference call is 1-800-715-9871 with a passcode of 5785379, and the international dial-in number is 1-646-307-1963 [2]. - A live webcast of the conference call will be available on the investor relations page of the company's website [2]. Group 2: Replay Information - For those unable to participate in the conference call, a replay will be available starting at 11:30 a.m. ET on May 29, 2025, through June 5, 2025, at 11:59 p.m. ET [3]. - The U.S. toll-free replay dial-in number is 1-800-770-2030, and the international replay dial-in number is 1-609-800-9909, with the same passcode of 5785379 [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Burlington Stores, Inc. is a nationally recognized off-price retailer with fiscal 2024 net sales of $10.6 billion [6]. - The company operates 1,108 stores across 46 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico, offering merchandise at up to 60% off other retailers' prices [6].

Core Insights - Burlington Capital has partnered with the Al-Bushra Infrastructure Development Fund to enhance economic cooperation between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, focusing on developing over 734,000 square meters in Makkah [1][2] - The project aims to create serviced plots for residential and commercial development, addressing the demand for modern living and working spaces with sustainable design [3] - This investment aligns with Burlington Capital's strategy to identify high-growth market opportunities while ensuring disciplined risk management and value creation [4] Company Strategy - Burlington Capital's long-term strategy includes expanding its presence in international markets, particularly in high-potential regions like Saudi Arabia [2] - The company emphasizes strong leadership and collaboration, partnering with Dr. Abdulaziz Sager, who brings significant qualifications and vision to the project [2] - The investment represents a milestone in Burlington Capital's global real estate expansion strategy, showcasing its commitment to delivering long-term value to investors [4] Market Context - The Al-Bushra Infrastructure Development Fund is focused on converting raw land into serviced plots, which is essential for meeting the region's growing demand for infrastructure [3] - The collaboration is seen as a promising partnership that could lead to exceptional opportunities in the region, reflecting a broader trend of U.S. investment in Saudi Arabia [2][4]

Valuation and Market Position - Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) is currently trading at a low price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 1.22, below the industry average of 1.79 and the sector average of 1.50, indicating that the stock is undervalued compared to its peers [1][2] - The company's Value Score of A highlights its attractiveness as a potential investment opportunity [2] Stock Performance - BURL shares are trading 23.8% below their 52-week high of $298.89, reached on November 25, 2024, while the stock has gained 27.9% over the past year, outperforming the industry's growth of 18.8% [5] - The company's strategic initiatives have led to better performance compared to the broader sector and the S&P 500 index, which grew by 15.1% and 10.3% respectively during the same period [5] Strategic Initiatives - The adoption of the Burlington 2.0 model has improved operational performance and customer experience by focusing on a curated mix of well-known national brands and premium private labels [8] - Burlington's flexible merchandising strategy allows it to respond quickly to market changes, enhancing its agility in the off-price retail sector [9] Expansion Plans - In fiscal 2024, Burlington exceeded its store growth targets by adding 101 net new locations, with plans for at least 100 net new stores each year in fiscal 2025 and 2026 [10] - The performance of new and relocated stores has been strong, leveraging favorable real estate trends to secure prime retail spaces [11] Financial Outlook - For fiscal 2025, Burlington projects total sales growth of 6-8%, with comparable store sales expected to increase by 1.8% year-over-year [12] - Adjusted earnings per share are anticipated to rise to between $8.70 and $9.30, up from $8.35 in fiscal 2024 [13] Cost Challenges - The company is facing rising cost pressures, with adjusted SG&A expenses increasing by 4% year-over-year to $745.6 million [14] - Product sourcing expenses rose to $217 million, driven by higher incentive pay and asset protection costs, impacting overall efficiency [15] Margin Projections - Management projects a decline in adjusted EBIT margin by 50-90 basis points for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, contrasting with a 170-basis-point increase reported in the prior year [16] - Adjusted EPS for the first quarter is forecasted between $1.30 and $1.45, compared to $1.42 in the same period last year [16] Conclusion - Burlington's strong performance and strategic growth initiatives present solid long-term growth potential, although rising costs may pose near-term challenges [17]

Industry Overview - The Retail – Discount Stores industry is facing challenges from shifting consumer behaviors, intense competition, and evolving tariff policies, which are expected to impact the sector's trajectory [1] - Inflation is affecting household budgets, leading to more cautious spending even in traditionally resilient discount categories [1] - Rising labor and sourcing costs are significant hurdles for retailers operating on thin margins [1] - To regain momentum, discount retailers need to rebuild consumer confidence and spending capacity through strategic pricing, inventory optimization, and operational efficiencies [1] Key Industry Trends - **Muted Consumer Demand Raises Revenue Concerns**: Inflation and geopolitical issues are straining consumer purchasing power, with the consumer sentiment index dropping to 50.8 from 57.0, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline [4] - **Cost Overhang Likely to Keep Margins Under Pressure**: The competitive landscape, particularly from e-commerce, is pressuring margins due to high costs associated with digital enhancements and marketing [5] - **Consumers Seek Better Bargains**: There is a growing demand for discounted prices among low- to middle-income groups, prompting retailers to innovate and enhance their digital capabilities [6] - **Digitization Key to Sector's Resilient Growth**: Retailers are investing in digital platforms and improving supply chains to adapt to changing consumer shopping patterns, including curbside pickup and contactless payment solutions [7] Industry Performance - The Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry currently ranks 167, placing it in the bottom 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating bleak near-term prospects [8][9] - The industry's earnings estimate has declined by 5.6% since the beginning of 2025, reflecting a negative earnings outlook [10] Market Comparison - Over the past year, the Zacks Retail – Discount Stores industry has outperformed the broader Retail – Wholesale sector and the S&P 500, with a collective stock advance of 15.8% compared to 11.5% and 5.5% respectively [11] Current Valuation - The industry is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.47, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 19.94 and the sector's 22.09 [14] Notable Companies - **Costco**: The company is benefiting from growth strategies, better price management, and strong membership trends, with a projected revenue growth of 7.8% and EPS growth of 11.6% [17][18] - **Target**: Target is evolving its business model with a focus on omnichannel capabilities and advanced technologies, expecting sales growth of 0.9% and EPS growth of 1.4% [21][22] - **Dollar General**: The company is leveraging its value-creating initiatives and defensive product mix, with a projected sales growth of 3.7% [25][26] - **Burlington Stores**: The company is adapting to consumer trends and enhancing its merchandising capabilities, with expected revenue growth of 7.8% and EPS growth of 12.6% [29][30]