Retail earnings take center stage this week as several holdings in the Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares (RETL) prepare to report results just days before the Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping weekend. Six companies from the ETF's roster will release quarterly results between Monday and Tuesday. The group includes Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL), Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), Kohl's Corp. (KSS), Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS), Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN), and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF). These six ...

Core Insights - Burlington Stores, Inc. is considered the weakest among its peers in the off-price retail sector, which includes TJX and Ross Stores [1] - The company reported approximately 2.5% comparable sales growth in the first half of the year, with flat growth in Q1 and 5% growth in Q2, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of 1.5% [2] - Despite a strong quarter, management adopted a more conservative tone for full-year guidance compared to TJX [2] Company Performance - Burlington Stores sells a variety of branded, value-focused fashion and home goods, including apparel, footwear, accessories, baby items, beauty products, and seasonal merchandise [2] - The company experienced a solid quarter, managing to beat expectations despite softer trends in May, with business returning to normal in June and July [2] Market Context - Jim Cramer highlighted Burlington's performance in the context of its competitors, noting that comparisons with TJX and Ross Stores are unfavorable for Burlington [1]

Market Overview - The market dynamics have shifted, with algorithmic trading dominating, leading to unpredictable selling patterns that disregard traditional holiday trends [2][3] - Investors are facing a lack of reliable data due to the government shutdown, impacting decision-making [3] Economic Indicators - The delayed September retail sales report is anticipated to be weak, which could increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts [3] - A soft retail sales report could lead to rising bond prices and falling yields, unless countered by a significant increase in the producer price index [4] - Housing turnover is at its lowest in 40 years, negatively affecting various industries reliant on housing sales [4] Company Insights Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) - Deere is viewed positively due to government support for farmers during tough times, which can lead to increased sales of farm equipment [9] - The company is expected to be resilient, but investors are advised to wait for the quarterly results before making purchases [9] Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE: BURL) - Burlington is considered the weakest among its peers in the off-price retail sector, with recent performance lagging behind competitors [10] - The company reported a 2.5% comparable sales growth in the first half, with a notable difference in growth rates between the first and second quarters [10][11] - Management's cautious guidance for the second half of the year reflects concerns over weather-related sales impacts, particularly in outerwear [11][13] - The stock trades at a higher valuation compared to its peers, with a PEG ratio of 1.4, and recent buyback activity has been limited [11][12]

Core Insights - The Q3 earnings season for S&P 500 companies is showing positive results, with 95% of companies having reported by November 21, and an expected 13.4% increase in earnings per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Analysts had initially expected a 7.9% increase in earnings per share for Q3 as of September 30, indicating a significant upward revision in expectations [3] - If the anticipated 13.4% growth holds, it represents an acceleration from the 12% growth rate reported in Q2 of this year [2] Group 2: Upcoming Reports - Recent retail earnings reports from Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's, and Target will be followed by upcoming reports from Abercrombie & Fitch, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Burlington Stores, which will provide insights into consumer sentiment and purchasing behavior [4] - Additional earnings reports from tech and other sectors are expected from companies such as Zoom, Dell, Workday, HP Inc., Deere, and Pony AI [5]

Core Insights - Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) is set to announce its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on November 25, with revenue expectations of $2.71 billion, reflecting a 7.1% year-over-year growth, and earnings per share (EPS) estimated at $1.59, indicating a 2.6% increase from the previous year [1][10] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Burlington Stores has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.7% on average, with the last reported quarter showing a 25.2% outperformance against the Zacks Consensus Estimate [2] - The Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for Burlington Stores, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +3.24% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7][8] Group 2: Factors Influencing Q3 Earnings - Strong customer response to improved assortments and enhanced in-store execution is expected to support top-line results, with comparable store sales projected to increase by 1.5% [3] - Operational improvements under the Burlington 2.0 framework, including upgrades in merchandising systems and supply-chain efficiency, are anticipated to enhance merchandise margins and expense control [4] - Store transformation efforts, such as redesigned layouts and improved signage, have driven stronger customer engagement, leading to better performance compared to legacy formats [5] Group 3: Challenges Faced - Macroeconomic pressures, particularly higher import-related costs due to tariffs, are acknowledged as significant headwinds, impacting overall performance [6] - There are concerns regarding softer demand in seasonally sensitive categories, which may affect the company's results [6]

Core Insights - Burlington Stores (BURL) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.59 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.6% [1] - Projected revenues for Burlington Stores are anticipated to be $2.71 billion, which represents a 7.1% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - There have been no revisions in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analysts' forecasts [1] Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Revenues- Net Sales' is $2.69 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of +6.7% [4] - Analysts project 'Revenues- Other revenue' to reach $4.70 million, reflecting a +4% change from the previous year [4] Store Metrics - Analysts predict that 'Stores at period end' will total 1,199, compared to 1,103 from the year-ago period [4] Stock Performance - Burlington Stores shares have increased by +5.9% over the past month, contrasting with a -0.3% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [4] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [4]

Core Viewpoint - Burlington Stores (BURL) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended October 2025, with the consensus outlook suggesting a positive earnings picture [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate for Burlington Stores is $1.59 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +2.6% [3]. - Expected revenues for the quarter are $2.71 billion, which is a 7.1% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.04% higher, indicating a slight bullish sentiment among analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Burlington Stores is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +3.24% [12]. Earnings Surprise History - Burlington Stores has a history of beating consensus EPS estimates, having done so in the last four quarters [14]. - In the last reported quarter, the company exceeded expectations by delivering earnings of $1.59 per share against an expected $1.27, resulting in a surprise of +25.20% [13]. Industry Comparison - Ross Stores (ROST), another player in the discount retail sector, is expected to report earnings of $1.4 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of -5.4% [18]. - Ross Stores has an Earnings ESP of +3.41% and has also beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters [19].

Core Insights - The Retail-Wholesale sector is expected to show growth in sales and earnings, influenced by consumer sentiment and spending trends [1][2] - The sector anticipates a year-over-year top-line growth of 6.2% and a bottom-line increase of 15.3% for the third quarter [2] - Companies with earnings beat potential have been identified, including Dollar General, Burlington Stores, Urban Outfitters, and TJX Companies [3] Sector Performance - Retail earnings are expected to reflect changing consumer spending patterns, with a shift towards essentials and value-oriented products due to inflation [4] - Persistent inflation continues to impact consumer budgets, leading to lower demand in discretionary categories [5] - The back-to-school season and early holiday promotions may help sustain sales in apparel, electronics, and personal care categories [5] Operational Challenges - Services and labor costs, particularly in logistics and staffing, are affecting operating margins [6] - Retailers focusing on strategic pricing and supply-chain management are better positioned to maintain market share [6] E-commerce Growth - The growth of e-commerce, supported by improved delivery times and AI-driven recommendations, is crucial for retail success [7] - Companies investing in online shopping experiences and loyalty programs gain a competitive advantage [7] Inventory Management - Efficient inventory management is key to retail profitability, with advanced analytics helping optimize stock levels [8] - Supply-chain complexities pose risks that may limit the benefits of improved demand planning [8] Company-Specific Insights - **Dollar General**: Zacks Rank 2, Earnings ESP of +12.31%, with a consensus estimate of $0.95 EPS, indicating a 6.7% increase year-over-year [10][12] - **Burlington Stores**: Zacks Rank 3, Earnings ESP of +3.24%, with a consensus estimate of $1.59 EPS, suggesting a 2.6% increase year-over-year [13][14] - **Urban Outfitters**: Zacks Rank 3, Earnings ESP of +6.24%, with a consensus estimate of $1.19 EPS, indicating an 8.2% increase year-over-year [15][16] - **TJX Companies**: Zacks Rank 3, Earnings ESP of +2.87%, with a consensus estimate of $1.22 EPS, suggesting a 7% increase year-over-year [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Burlington Stores, Inc. is set to release its third quarter fiscal year 2025 results on November 25, 2025, before the U.S. stock market opens, followed by a conference call to discuss the results [1] Company Overview - Burlington Stores, Inc. is a nationally recognized off-price retailer headquartered in New Jersey, with Fiscal 2024 net sales of $10.6 billion [6] - The company operates 1,138 stores across 46 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico, offering high-quality branded merchandise at discounts of up to 60% compared to other retailers [6] Conference Call Details - The conference call will take place at 8:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on November 25, 2025, with a U.S. toll-free dial-in number of 1-800-715-9871 and an international dial-in number of 1-646-307-1963 [2] - A live webcast of the conference call will be available on the investor relations page of the company's website [2] Replay Information - For those unable to attend the live conference call, a replay will be available starting at 11:30 a.m. ET on November 25, 2025, until December 2, 2025, at 11:59 p.m. ET [3] - The U.S. toll-free replay dial-in number is 1-800-770-2030, and the international replay dial-in number is 1-609-800-9909 [3] Communication Channels - Burlington Stores utilizes SEC filings, press releases, public conference calls, and webcasts to announce material information, and may also use its website and social media channels for communication [4] - The company encourages stakeholders to review information posted on its website and social media platforms for updates on key personnel, new brands, and corporate initiatives [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Burlington Stores, TJX Companies, and Ross Stores, expecting these retailers to outperform their cautious low single-digit same-store sales growth guidance, potentially achieving mid to high single-digit growth [1] Retail Sector Analysis - The retail sector is facing challenges such as tariffs and variable weather patterns, yet Bank of America Securities believes the overall fundamentals of the sector remain strong [1] - Each company employs different strategies to sustain growth amidst these challenges [1]