Group 1 - Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE: BURL) is performing well despite challenges in the consumer discretionary sector due to consumer confidence concerns and macroeconomic fears [1] - The stock has recently experienced a decline as part of a broader sell-off in consumer discretionary stocks [1] Group 2 - The company is positioned to deliver returns even in uncertain economic conditions [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store sales for Q4 increased by 6%, exceeding guidance of 0% to 2% [8] - Total sales for the full year 2024 grew by 11%, following a 10% increase in 2023 [31] - Adjusted EBIT margin for Q4 was 11.1%, up 10 basis points year-over-year, and significantly above guidance [28] - Adjusted earnings per share in Q4 was $4.13, representing a 12% increase compared to the previous year [28] - Operating margin for the full year expanded by 100 basis points [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The strategy to elevate assortment contributed to strong Q4 performance, focusing on a mix of well-known national brands and higher quality items [9][10] - New store openings totaled 147 in 2024, with 101 net new stores added after accounting for relocations and closures [16][30] - Merchandise margin increased by 60 basis points for the full year [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced strong performance in lower-income trade areas, indicating success with the "Need a Deal" customer segment [61] - Comp store sales growth was driven by both increased transactions and higher average transaction values [89] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow total sales to approximately $16 billion and operating profit to about $1.6 billion by 2028 [15] - The long-range model includes an average of 100 net new store openings each year, with a focus on transforming the store network [16] - The company is strategically purchasing distribution centers to enhance supply chain control and efficiency [33][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management acknowledged uncertainty in the economic environment for 2025, planning conservatively while remaining flexible to adapt to sales trends [25][40] - The company is optimistic about its business prospects over the next two to three years, despite potential short-term volatility [66][70] Other Important Information - The company ended Q4 with approximately $1.8 billion in total liquidity, including $995 million in cash [29] - Capital expenditures for FY 2024 increased to $844 million, with a forecast of $950 million for FY 2025 due to strategic purchases of distribution centers [34][36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Could you elaborate on sales trends in the first quarter? - The first quarter started weaker than expected, primarily due to unfavorable weather in key regions and delays in tax refunds [46][48] Question: Can you provide details on margin contraction in the first quarter? - Margin contraction is expected due to modest merchandise margin pressure and fixed cost deleverage, particularly in the first quarter [52][54] Question: How did the comp trend for 2024 break down between customer segments? - Strong performance was noted among both "Need a Deal" customers and "Want a Deal" customers, with comp growth driven by delivering value to both segments [60][64] Question: What are the implications of higher CapEx for debt levels and stock buybacks? - The increase in CapEx is expected to have a modest impact on leverage ratios, and the company plans to continue share repurchases at similar levels as previous years [80][84] Question: How is the company positioned regarding off-price merchandise availability? - The company reported strong availability in the off-price channel, with effective vendor partnerships contributing to successful inventory management [109]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store sales for Q4 increased by 6%, exceeding guidance of 0% to 2% [9][34] - Total sales grew by 10% in Q4 and 11% for the full year, following a 10% increase in 2023 [34][42] - Adjusted EBIT margin for Q4 was 11.1%, up 10 basis points year-over-year, and 100 basis points for the full year [38][42] - Adjusted earnings per share in Q4 was $4.13, representing a 12% increase compared to the previous year [38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The strategy to elevate assortment contributed significantly to Q4 performance, focusing on a mix of well-known national brands and higher-quality items [10][12] - New store openings totaled 147 in 2024, with 101 net new stores added after accounting for relocations and closures [21][42] - Merchandise margin increased by 60 basis points, with freight improving by 20 basis points and supply chain costs leveraging by 50 basis points [42][44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong performance in lower-income trade areas, indicating success with the "need a deal" customer segment [82][88] - Comp store sales growth was driven by both "need a deal" and "want a deal" customers, with mid-single-digit growth in moderate and higher-income areas [88] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow total sales to approximately $16 billion and operating profit to about $1.6 billion by 2028, with a focus on new store openings, comp store sales growth, and operating margin expansion [19][20] - The strategy includes owning distribution centers to enhance control and avoid rent increases, with significant capital expenditures planned for 2024 and 2025 [45][48] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the business outlook, acknowledging potential economic and geopolitical risks while emphasizing the importance of being nimble and flexible [32][94] - The company anticipates total sales growth of 6% to 8% for 2025, with comp store sales expected to be flat to 2% [32][49] Other Important Information - The company ended Q4 with approximately $1.8 billion in total liquidity, including $995 million in cash [40] - Share repurchases totaled $61 million in Q4, with $263 million remaining on the share repurchase authorization [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on sales trends in the first quarter? - Management noted that February started weaker than expected, primarily due to weather and the timing of tax refunds, but sales improved as conditions normalized [62][67] Question: What are the drivers of margin contraction in the first quarter? - The first quarter is expected to have the most challenging margin comparisons due to fixed cost deleverage and modest merchandise margin improvement [72][75] Question: How did comp trends break down in Q4? - Strong performance was noted in lower-income areas, with comp growth driven by both "need a deal" and "want a deal" customers [82][88] Question: What are the implications of higher CapEx for debt levels and stock buybacks? - The company plans to manage debt levels carefully while continuing share repurchases, with a focus on owning distribution centers [110][114] Question: How do potential policy changes affect the customer? - Management acknowledged uncertainty around policy changes but expressed optimism about the business's ability to adapt and thrive [92][94] Question: Can you provide details on category and regional performance in Q4? - Comp growth was driven by increased traffic and average transaction value, with strong performance across all major categories [120][121]

Core Insights - Burlington Stores' stock surged 13.4% following the release of strong fourth-quarter results, settling at an 11.5% gain by 11 a.m. ET [1] Financial Performance - Fourth-quarter sales increased by 4.8% year over year, reaching $3.28 billion, aligning with analyst expectations despite the quarter being shorter than the previous year [2] - Adjusted earnings rose 12% to $4.13 per diluted share, surpassing the average analyst estimate of $3.77 [2] Store Expansion and Sales Growth - Same-store sales grew by 6% year over year, exceeding management's guidance of flat to a 2% increase [3] - The company added 101 net new stores in 2024 and relocated 31 oversized locations to smaller lots, ending the fourth quarter with 1,108 active stores [3] - Burlington plans to open 100 more locations than it intends to close in 2025 [3] Economic Outlook - CEO Michael O'Sullivan expressed concerns about an "uncertain" economy in 2025, indicating a cautious and flexible management approach moving forward [4] - The company aims to be prepared for potential challenges in the upcoming year, reflecting on the strategies that worked in 2024 [4]

Core Insights - Burlington Stores reported revenue of $3.28 billion for the quarter ended January 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.8% [1] - The company's EPS was $4.07, up from $3.66 in the same quarter last year, indicating a strong performance [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.26 billion, resulting in a surprise of +0.49% [1] - Burlington Stores delivered an EPS surprise of +8.24%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $3.76 [1] Key Metrics - Comparable Store Sales increased by 6%, surpassing the estimated 2% by analysts [4] - The number of stores at the end of the period was 1,108, matching the average estimate from four analysts [4] - Net Sales were reported at $3.27 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $3.25 billion from three analysts, representing a year-over-year change of +4.8% [4] - Other revenue was reported at $5 million, which was below the average estimate of $5.18 million, showing a year-over-year decline of -5.6% [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Burlington Stores have returned -11.8% over the past month, compared to a -3.5% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Burlington Stores reported quarterly earnings of $4.07 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.76 per share, and showing an increase from $3.66 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 8.24% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $3.28 billion for the quarter ended January 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.49%, and up from $3.13 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Burlington Stores has exceeded consensus EPS estimates four times and topped revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Performance - Burlington Stores shares have declined approximately 16.9% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of 0.7% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Burlington Stores is 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.60 on revenues of $2.59 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $9.24 on revenues of $11.61 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Burlington Stores is mixed, and future revisions may change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Retail - Discount Stores industry is currently in the top 34% of Zacks industries, suggesting that companies in this sector are likely to outperform those in the bottom 50% [8] - Another competitor in the same industry, Dollar General, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.50 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 18% [9]

Core Insights - Burlington Stores reported strong fourth-quarter earnings for 2024, with adjusted EPS of $4.13, surpassing expectations of $3.77, and revenue of $3.28 billion, exceeding the estimate of $3.24 billion [1][6][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS increased by 12% year-over-year from $3.69 in Q4 2023 to $4.13 in Q4 2024 [3][6] - Revenue grew by 4.8% year-over-year from $3.13 billion in Q4 2023 to $3.28 billion in Q4 2024 [3][6] - Comparable store sales saw a significant increase of 6%, exceeding the guidance of 0% to 2% [6][7] - Adjusted EBIT margin improved to 11.0%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [3][7] Business Strategy - Burlington's business model focuses on offering high-quality, brand-name products at discounted prices, attracting value-conscious consumers [4] - The company has prioritized expanding store locations and enhancing supply chain efficiencies, with 101 net new stores added in 2024, increasing total locations by 10% to 1,108 [5][11] - Efficient inventory management is highlighted, with a 15% increase in current period merchandise inventories and a 3% decrease in comparable store inventories [9] Market Position and Outlook - Burlington anticipates continued growth in 2025, projecting total sales growth between 6% and 8% and adjusted EPS in the range of $8.70 to $9.30 [10] - The company plans to open approximately 100 net new stores in the upcoming year, supporting its long-term goal of reaching 2,000 locations [11] - Management is focused on leveraging its off-price model to sustain growth amid competitive retail sector challenges and potential economic uncertainties [12]

Financial Performance - Comparable store sales increased by 6% in Q4 2024, exceeding guidance of 0% to 2%[4] - Q4 net income was $261 million, with diluted EPS of $4.02, compared to $227 million and $3.53 per share in the prior year[4] - Total sales for FY24 increased by 11% to $10.6 billion, with comparable store sales growth of 4%[8] - Adjusted EPS for FY25 is expected to be in the range of $8.70 to $9.30, compared to $8.35 in FY24[16] - Net income for the fiscal year ended February 1, 2025, was $503,639, representing a 48.3% increase from $339,649 in 2024[30] - Diluted net income per share for the fiscal year ended February 1, 2025, was $7.80, compared to $5.23 for the previous year, marking a 49.0% increase[25] - Adjusted Earnings per Share (EPS) for the fiscal year ended February 1, 2025, was $8.17, up from $6.06 in the previous year, indicating a 34.8% growth[39] - Net income for the three months ended February 1, 2025, was $260,767,000, compared to $227,458,000 for the same period in 2024, which is a 14.6% increase[39] Sales and Revenue - Total revenue for the fiscal year ended February 1, 2025, was $9,727,467, up from $9,708,973 in 2024, reflecting a growth of 0.2%[25] - Net sales for the three months ended February 1, 2025, were $3,272,058, an increase of 4.9% compared to $3,121,061 for the same period in 2024[25] Expenses and Liabilities - Total liabilities increased to $7,399,917 as of February 1, 2025, compared to $6,709,908 as of February 3, 2024, indicating a rise of 10.3%[28] - The company incurred $880,384 in cash paid for property and equipment during the fiscal year ended February 1, 2025, compared to $492,644 in 2024[30] - Adjusted SG&A for the fiscal year ended February 1, 2025, was $2,732,929,000, compared to $2,491,266,000 in 2024, marking a 9.7% increase[39] Inventory and Assets - Merchandise inventories at the end of FY24 were $1,251 million, a 15% increase from the previous year[9] - Total assets increased to $8,770,413 as of February 1, 2025, compared to $7,706,840 as of February 3, 2024, reflecting a growth of 13.8%[28] Future Outlook - The company expects total sales to increase by 6% to 8% in FY25, with comparable store sales projected to grow by 0% to 2%[13] - Capital expenditures for FY25 are estimated to be approximately $950 million[13] - The company plans to continue its growth strategy through market expansion and new product development, although specific figures were not disclosed in the call[25] Tax and Interest - The Company's effective tax rate on a GAAP basis for the three months ended February 1, 2025, was 25.0%, down from 27.5% in the same period of 2024[40] - The adjusted effective tax rate for the fiscal year ended February 1, 2025, was 25.4%, consistent with the previous year[40] - The Company reported interest expense of $18,522,000 for the three months ended February 1, 2025, down from $19,829,000 in the same period of 2024[39] Adjusted Metrics - Adjusted EBIT margin for FY24 was 7.2%, an increase of 100 basis points compared to FY23[4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended February 1, 2025, was $451,002,000, compared to $414,414,000 for the same period in 2024, reflecting an increase of 8.8%[39] - Adjusted Net Income for the three months ended February 1, 2025, was $263,743,000, compared to $235,682,000 for the same period in 2024, representing a 11.9% increase[39] Store Operations - The company opened 101 net new stores in FY24 and relocated 31 older oversized locations[3] - The company ended Q4 2024 with $1,822 million in liquidity, including $995 million in unrestricted cash[12]

Core Insights - Burlington Stores, Inc. reported strong performance in the fourth quarter with a 6% increase in comparable store sales, driven by effective strategies and the strength of its off-price business model [2][4][5] - The company achieved an adjusted EBIT margin that exceeded guidance by 60 basis points, and adjusted EPS increased by 12% compared to the previous year [2][4] - For the full fiscal year 2024, total sales grew by 11%, with comparable store sales up by 4%, and adjusted EBIT margin increased by 100 basis points [2][4][5] Financial Performance - Q4 net income reached $261 million, translating to diluted EPS of $4.02, compared to $227 million and $3.53 per share in the same quarter last year [4][21] - For the fiscal year 2024, net income was $504 million, with diluted EPS of $7.80, marking a significant increase from $339 million and $5.23 per share in fiscal 2023 [4][21] - Adjusted EPS for Q4 was $4.13, exceeding guidance of $3.55 to $3.75, while adjusted EPS for the full year was $8.35, a 34% increase from the previous year [4][10] Sales and Margins - Total sales for Q4 were $3,272 million, a 10% increase on a 13-week basis compared to the previous year [5][21] - Gross margin for Q4 was $1,404 million, with a gross margin percentage of 42.9%, reflecting a 30 basis point improvement [5][21] - The company opened 101 net new stores in 2024 and relocated 31 older oversized locations, contributing to overall sales growth [2][4] Inventory and Liquidity - Merchandise inventories increased by 15% year-over-year to $1,251 million, while comparable store inventories decreased by 3% [8] - The company ended Q4 with $1,822 million in liquidity, including $995 million in unrestricted cash [11] Outlook for 2025 - For fiscal year 2025, the company expects total sales to increase by 6% to 8%, with comparable store sales projected to grow by 0% to 2% [12] - Capital expenditures are anticipated to be approximately $950 million, with plans to open around 100 net new stores [12] - Adjusted EPS is expected to range from $8.70 to $9.30, compared to $8.35 in the previous year [12]

Core Viewpoint - Burlington Stores (BURL) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $3.76 per share, a 2.7% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $3.26 billion, reflecting a 4.3% year-over-year growth [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.9% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are strongly linked to short-term stock price performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- Net Sales' at $3.25 billion, representing a 4.2% increase from the previous year [5]. - The 'Revenues- Other revenue' is projected to reach $5.18 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 2.2% [5]. Store Metrics - The consensus estimate for 'Stores at period end' is 1,108, up from 1,007 in the same quarter last year [5]. Stock Performance - Burlington Stores shares have decreased by 12.2% over the past month, compared to a 1.3% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [6]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [6].