Summary of Cardinal Health Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Cardinal Health - **Industry**: Healthcare Services - **CEO**: Jason Hollar - **CFO**: Aaron Alt - **Revenue**: Expected to exceed $250 billion in the current year [5][6] Key Financial Highlights - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected to be at least $10 per share for fiscal 2026, driven by broad-based growth and strategic initiatives [3][14] - **Core Operating Earnings Growth**: Achieved a 14% CAGR over the last several years, translating into an 18% EPS growth [4] - **Adjusted Free Cash Flow**: Averaging over $3 billion, with a conversion rate of over 150% over the last three years [6] - **Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions Business**: Accounts for over 90% of revenue and nearly 80% of profit [6] Strategic Focus Areas - **Core Business**: Emphasis on pharmaceutical and specialty solutions, with a focus on organic and inorganic growth [15][16] - **At-Home Solutions**: Growth in this segment is seen as a strategic priority, with investments in technology and partnerships [11][60] - **GMPD (Medical Supply Division)**: Positioned as a turnaround business, with significant investments to improve performance and service levels [62][64] Market Dynamics - **Demographics**: Increasing number of Americans over 65 years old, leading to higher pharmaceutical utilization [10] - **Utilization Trends**: Strong demand across various product categories, with a focus on maintaining low unit costs [9][32] - **Pricing Environment**: Contractual ability to renegotiate prices in response to market changes, with a focus on maintaining margins [28][30] Growth Opportunities - **Specialty Areas**: Focus on autoimmune, urology, and oncology, with significant growth expected in these therapeutic areas [19][20] - **Biopharma Solutions**: Anticipated growth of over 30% in fiscal 2026, with plans to achieve $1 billion in revenue by fiscal 2028 [21][22] - **M&A Strategy**: Focus on tuck-in acquisitions to enhance existing capabilities, particularly in specialty areas [66][67] Risks and Challenges - **Regulatory Changes**: Potential impacts from CMMI demos and pricing changes related to Part B, but manageable due to the diversified payer mix [34][35] - **Market Competition**: Continuous investment in capabilities to maintain competitive advantage and customer relationships [13][40] Conclusion - **Overall Outlook**: Cardinal Health is positioned for continued growth with a strong focus on strategic initiatives, operational improvements, and market opportunities. The company remains committed to delivering value to shareholders while navigating industry challenges [68]

Financial Performance and Guidance - Cardinal Health raises its fiscal year 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance to at least $10.00, up from the previous range of $9.65 to $9.85[5] - The company anticipates approximately $3.4 billion in operating earnings for fiscal year 2026[19] - Cardinal Health expects approximately $3.25 billion in adjusted free cash flow for fiscal year 2026[20] Specialty Growth - Specialty revenue is projected to exceed $50 billion in fiscal year 2026, representing a 16% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over three years[5, 35] - BioPharma Solutions is expected to grow over 30% in fiscal year 2026[37, 45] - Cardinal Health's MSOs contribute approximately $4.5 billion in higher-margin revenue[42] Strategic Initiatives - Cardinal Health is introducing ContinuCare Pathway to simplify diabetes supply management for pharmacies and patients, partnering with Publix Super Markets Inc[7] - The company is prioritizing growth in therapeutic areas such as autoimmune, urology, and oncology[37] - Cardinal Health aims to achieve $1 billion in higher-margin revenue from BioPharma Solutions by fiscal year 2028[43] Overall Strategy - Cardinal Health is focused on simplification, expanding in Specialty, accelerating other growth businesses, and executing GMPD Improvement Plan initiatives[34] - The company highlights a consistent track record, unique breadth of capabilities, and a resilient business model[57]

Core Viewpoint - Cardinal Health, Inc. has raised its fiscal 2026 earnings outlook, projecting non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to be at least $10, up from a previous range of $9.65 to $9.85, indicating improved operational performance [1] - The company expects Specialty revenues to exceed $50 billion during fiscal 2026, representing a 16% compounded annual growth rate over three years [2] Medicare Pricing Transition - Cardinal Health successfully transitioned pharmaceutical distribution agreements affected by the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program changes ahead of implementation, ensuring appropriate compensation for its distribution services [3] - The company introduced the ContinuCare Pathway program under its at-Home Solutions business to simplify diabetes supply management and insurance navigation for patients and partner pharmacies [4] Broad Business Scope - Cardinal Health is a major distributor of pharmaceuticals, specialty products, and medical and laboratory supplies, also providing performance solutions and direct-to-patient services across the healthcare sector [5] - At the time of publication, Cardinal Health shares rose by 4.08% to $210.77, trading near its 52-week high of $214.93 [5]

Core Insights - The healthcare services company anticipates generating over $50 billion in specialty revenue by fiscal 2026 [1] Company Summary - The company is focused on expanding its specialty revenue streams, indicating a strategic shift towards high-value healthcare services [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cardinal Health has raised its forecast for 2026 adjusted profit to at least $10 per share, up from the previous estimate of $9.65 to $9.85 per share [1] Summary by Category - **Company Forecast** - The company now projects adjusted profit for 2026 to be at least $10 per share, indicating a positive outlook compared to the earlier range of $9.65 to $9.85 per share [1]

Core Insights - Cardinal Health has raised its fiscal year 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS outlook to at least $10.00, up from the previous range of $9.65 to $9.85, reflecting strong performance across its operating segments [3][9] - The company anticipates Specialty revenues to exceed $50 billion in fiscal year 2026, representing a 16% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over three years [4][9] - Cardinal Health has successfully transitioned its manufacturer distribution service agreements in response to the 2026 Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program changes [7][9] Financial Outlook - The updated non-GAAP diluted EPS for fiscal year 2026 is projected to be at least $10.00, indicating a positive trend in the company's financial performance [3][9] - The increase in EPS expectations is attributed to effective execution of the company's strategic growth plan across its five operating segments [2][3] Specialty Growth - Cardinal Health expects Specialty revenues to surpass $50 billion in fiscal year 2026, driven by strong demand in specialty distribution and a projected 30% revenue growth in BioPharma Solutions [4][9] - The BioPharma Solutions segment has seen significant wins, including partnerships with leading manufacturers for patient support programs, serving over 1 million patients [5][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company introduced the ContinuCare™ Pathway program to simplify diabetes supply management for pharmacies and patients, enhancing access to diabetes supplies [10][11] - Publix Super Markets Inc. has enrolled its entire pharmacy network in the ContinuCare™ Pathway program, expanding its reach to over 11,000 retail and grocery pharmacies [12][9] Investor Engagement - Cardinal Health will present at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, providing further insights into its strategic initiatives and financial outlook [13]

Group 1 - Cardinal Health, Inc. (NYSE:CAH) is recognized as a leading player among U.S. drug distributors, with a significant performance increase of over 40% last year [1][2] - The company benefits from rising demand for complex specialty and biologic therapies, expanding its value-added service offerings [2] - Cardinal Health is involved in adjacent markets such as third-party logistics and nuclear medicine, indicating diversification in its business model [2] Group 2 - The medical distribution business of Cardinal Health is undergoing a turnaround, with new management making progress in improving service gaps and margins [2] - Despite the positive outlook for Cardinal Health, some analysts suggest that certain AI stocks may present greater upside potential and lower downside risk [2]

Core Insights - Major U.S. stock market indices closed positively on January 9, 2026, following December jobs data, with unemployment rate decreasing to 4.4% but job additions missing expectations [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Investors are shifting towards dividend-growth stocks due to a preference for quality and visibility amid economic uncertainty, as these stocks signal robust cash flows [2][9] - Stocks with a strong history of year-over-year dividend growth are seen as better investments for capital appreciation compared to simple dividend-paying stocks [3][6] Group 2: Characteristics of Dividend Growth Stocks - Dividend growth stocks belong to mature companies, providing a hedge against market volatility and economic uncertainty while offering downside protection through consistent payout increases [4] - These stocks typically exhibit superior fundamentals, including sustainable business models, profitability, rising cash flows, good liquidity, and strong balance sheets [5] Group 3: Selected Dividend Growth Stocks - Woodward Inc. (WWD): Expected revenue growth of 11.2% for fiscal 2026, long-term earnings growth rate of 15.20%, and annual dividend yield of 0.35% [10][11] - Cardinal Health (CAH): Projected revenue growth of 16.2% for fiscal 2026, long-term earnings growth rate of 13.90%, and annual dividend yield of 1.02% [12] - Fox Corp. (FOX): Anticipated revenue growth of 3.6% for fiscal 2027, long-term earnings growth rate of 10.10%, and annual dividend yield of 0.84% [13] - Kinross Gold (KGC): Expected revenue growth of 11% for fiscal 2026, long-term earnings growth rate of 36.5%, and annual dividend yield of 0.45% [14] - Donaldson (DCI): Projected revenue growth of 3.5% for fiscal 2026, long-term earnings growth rate of 10%, and annual dividend yield of 1.26% [15]

Core Insights - Medical supplies stocks are typically not seen as high-return investments due to thin margins and regulatory pressures, making outperformance unlikely in a challenging macro environment [1] - However, companies like Cardinal Health, McKesson, and Cencora have achieved significant stock returns over the past year, outperforming the broader market with gains of 66.4%, 39.5%, and 42.2% respectively [2] Company Performance Cardinal Health - Cardinal Health has shown a turnaround with double-digit operating earnings growth across all segments in Q1 of fiscal 2026, indicating broad improvement [4][8] - Revenues increased by 22% year over year to $64 billion, driven by strong pharmaceutical demand and GLP-1 volumes, with the Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions segment profit rising by 26% [5] - The company is expanding its specialty business, including the acquisition of Solaris Health, aimed at enhancing provider relationships [6][8] - Cardinal Health generated $1.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow and returned $500 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [9] McKesson - McKesson reported 10% revenue growth to $103 billion and 39% adjusted EPS growth in Q2 of fiscal 2026, showcasing its operational excellence [11] - The Oncology and Multispecialty segment saw revenues jump by 32% and operating profit surge by 71%, driven by strong specialty volumes and acquisitions [12] - The company generated $2.2 billion in free cash flow and returned $907 million to shareholders, primarily through share repurchases [13] Cencora - Cencora's performance reflects the strength of specialty-focused distribution, with 6% revenue growth and 15% adjusted EPS growth in Q4 of fiscal 2025 [16] - Operating income rose by 20% year over year, supported by strong specialty demand and the acquisition of Retina Consultants of America [17] - The company plans to invest approximately $1 billion through 2030 to enhance distribution capacity and cold-chain infrastructure [18]

Core Insights - Sustained outperformance in MedTech requires structural demand drivers, improving execution, and clear earnings visibility rather than just short-term market rallies [2][6] - A select group of MedTech stocks, including TransMedics (TMDX), KORU Medical Systems (KRMD), and Cardinal Health (CAH), have significantly outperformed the S&P 500, which rose 19.3% over the past year [3][8] TransMedics (TMDX) - TMDX shares increased by 89.8% over the past year, driven by the adoption of its Organ Care System (OCS) and the expansion of its National OCS Program (NOP) [7][10] - The company reported revenues of $143.8 million in Q3 2025, reflecting a 32% year-over-year growth, with service revenues rising 35% [9][10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 sales is $723.8 million, indicating approximately 20.5% growth, with plans for European expansion [10][11] KORU Medical Systems (KRMD) - KRMD achieved a 45.5% stock growth over the past year, with Q3 2025 revenues of $10.4 million, marking a 27% year-over-year increase [13][15] - Core SCIg revenues grew about 30%, supported by international expansion and market share gains, despite a dip in U.S. revenues due to inventory adjustments [14][15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 sales is $49 million, implying 20.2% growth, with ongoing advancements in non-Ig drug collaborations [15][16] Cardinal Health (CAH) - CAH stock surged by 35.3% over the past year, with Q1 fiscal 2026 revenues of $64 billion, up 22% year-over-year, and earnings per share of $2.55, representing 36% growth [18][20] - The Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions segment led performance, with 23% revenue growth and 26% profit growth [19][20] - Management raised full-year fiscal 2026 earnings per share guidance to $9.65-$9.85, indicating 17-20% growth, while also returning $500 million to shareholders [20][21]