Management's discussion and analysis for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 This management's discussion and analysis (MD&A) includes information that will help you understand management's perspective of our unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements and notes for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 (interim financial statements). The information is based on what we knew as of and through July 30, 2025, and updates our first quarter and annual MD&A included in our 2024 annual report. As you revi ...

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Core Insights - Cameco Corporation (CCJ) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on July 31, with projected revenues of $630.7 million, reflecting a 44.3% year-over-year growth, and earnings per share (EPS) estimated at 36 cents, indicating a 260% increase from the previous year [1][4]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco's second-quarter revenues is $630.7 million, which is a 44.3% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is 36 cents, showing a significant improvement of 260% from the prior year's figure of 10% [1]. - Over the past 60 days, the earnings estimate has increased by 50% [1]. Earnings Surprise History - In the last four quarters, Cameco's earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate three times and exceeded it once, with an average negative earnings surprise of 48.50% [2][3]. Production and Sales Outlook - Cameco's uranium production is expected to be supported by its stakes in high-grade uranium mines, including a 69.8% stake in the McArthur River mine and an 83% stake in the Key Lake mill [7]. - The company anticipates uranium sales between 31 million and 34 million pounds in 2025, slightly down from 33.6 million pounds sold in the previous year [8]. - During Q1 2025, Cameco's share of uranium production reached 6 million pounds, a 3% year-over-year increase, with Q2 production expected to exceed 6.2 million pounds from the same period last year [9]. Cost and Pricing Factors - Uranium prices have faced pressure this year, averaging $72.59 per pound in Q2, down 17% year-over-year, but Cameco's revenues may benefit from fixed-price contracts [11]. - The average unit cost of production at McArthur River/Key Lake is expected to be higher, while costs at Cigar Lake are projected to decrease due to increased production [12]. Strategic Developments - Cameco's 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric Company is expected to contribute an additional $170 million to Q2 adjusted EBITDA, linked to Westinghouse's nuclear reactor construction projects [14]. - The company is actively working to lower administration, exploration, and operating costs, which may help mitigate the impact of rising costs on earnings [13]. Market Performance - Cameco shares have appreciated 75.3% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the industry average of 5.5% [16]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 13.31, higher than the industry average of 1.24 and above its five-year median of 6.60 [18]. Industry Context - Geopolitical events and a global focus on climate change are creating favorable conditions for the nuclear power industry, with Cameco accounting for 16% of global uranium production in 2024 [20]. - Despite a strong balance sheet and investments to boost capacity, the current decline in uranium prices and changes to the Mineral Extraction Tax in Kazakhstan may impact earnings [21][23].

Core Insights - Cameco, a leading uranium miner, has seen its stock price surge approximately 250% over the past three years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which rose 60% during the same period [1] Company Overview - Cameco is based in Canada and operates uranium mines and mills in Canada, the U.S., and Kazakhstan, accounting for roughly 17% of the world's uranium production in 2024, making it the second-largest uranium miner after Kazatomprom [2] Historical Performance - From 2011 to 2021, Cameco's annual revenue declined from $2.41 billion to $1.18 billion, with no revenue growth during that decade, primarily due to the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster in 2011, which led to a global drop in uranium prices [4] - Uranium's spot price fell from over $70 per pound before the Fukushima disaster to below $20 in 2017, forcing Cameco to suspend operations at its largest mines and reduce production [5] Recent Recovery - Between 2021 and 2024, Cameco's revenue experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% in Canadian dollar terms, with gross margins expanding into double digits over the past two years [6] - Revenue growth rates were reported at 27% in 2022, 39% in 2023, and 21% in 2024 [7] Market Dynamics - The recovery in Cameco's performance was driven by a significant increase in uranium spot prices, which rose from $29.63 in January 2021 to $78.50 in June 2024, prompting the company to restart mining operations at McArthur River and Key Lake in 2022 [8] - Several factors contributed to the rise in uranium prices, including reduced global supply due to production cuts by Cameco and Kazatomprom, alongside increased demand as countries resumed nuclear energy projects [10] Strategic Developments - In late 2023, Cameco partnered with Brookfield Asset Management to acquire a 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric, a nuclear power plant designer and builder, which is expected to stabilize its core mining business [9] - Global challenges, such as sanctions on Russia and supply chain issues in Kazakhstan and Niger, have further tightened uranium supply, benefiting Cameco [11] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that uranium prices will continue to rise as demand outpaces supply, with the growth of cloud and AI data centers driving interest in next-generation nuclear energy solutions [12] - Cameco's stake in Global Laser Enrichment (GLE) could position it as a comprehensive provider in the nuclear power sector, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) projecting a potential 2.5 times increase in global nuclear capacity from 2024 to 2050 [13] - From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Cameco's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 8% in Canadian dollar terms, with adjusted EBITDA projected to grow at a CAGR of 16% [14]

Core Viewpoint - The renewable energy market is expected to grow significantly, providing opportunities for companies like Nio, Plug Power, and Cameco, despite the challenges in distinguishing successful players in this fragmented market [2][3]. Group 1: Nio (Electric Vehicle Market) - Nio is a prominent Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer expanding into Europe, known for its battery-swapping technology [5][6]. - From 2020 to 2024, Nio's annual deliveries increased over fivefold, with revenue growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42%, and the number of battery-swapping stations rising from 155 to 3,445 [6]. - Analysts project Nio's revenue will grow at a CAGR of 26% from 2024 to 2027, driven by market share growth in China and Europe [7]. Group 2: Plug Power (Hydrogen Market) - Plug Power is the largest pure play hydrogen charging and storage company, providing fuel cells and charging stations, with major clients like Amazon and Walmart [8]. - In 2024, Plug Power's revenue fell by 29% due to macroeconomic challenges and tough comparisons from previous acquisitions [9]. - Analysts expect Plug Power's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 30% from 2024 to 2027, supported by a new $1.66 billion loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy [10][11]. Group 3: Cameco (Nuclear Market) - Cameco is the second-largest uranium miner globally, responsible for about 17% of the world's uranium production in 2024 [12]. - The company's revenue grew at a CAGR of 29% from 2021 to 2024, with adjusted EBITDA surging at a CAGR of 206%, driven by rising uranium prices and the resumption of mining operations [14]. - Analysts forecast Cameco's revenue will grow at a CAGR of 8% from 2024 to 2027, with adjusted EBITDA increasing at a CAGR of 16% [15][16].

Core Insights - Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU) and Cameco Corporation (CCJ) are significant players in the uranium production industry, expected to contribute notably to the global nuclear energy supply chain [1] Group 1: Uranium Market Overview - Uranium prices have recently declined to $71 per pound, down 14.3% year-over-year, following a brief surge to $79 in late June [2] - The long-term outlook for uranium remains strong due to the increasing demand for clean energy, particularly with U.S. government initiatives to quadruple nuclear energy capacity by 2050 [3] Group 2: Energy Fuels Analysis - Energy Fuels has been the leading U.S. producer of natural uranium concentrate, accounting for two-thirds of U.S. production since 2017 [4] - The White Mesa Mill in Utah is the only fully licensed conventional uranium processing facility in the U.S., with the Pinyon Plain mine expected to be the highest-grade uranium deposit in U.S. history [5] - Energy Fuels anticipates mining 55,000-80,000 tons of ore containing approximately 875,000-1,435,000 pounds of uranium in 2025, a 22% increase from previous guidance [6] - The company sold 50,000 pounds of uranium at $77.00 per pound in Q2 and expects to sell 140,000 pounds in Q3 and 160,000 pounds in Q4 under long-term contracts [7] - Energy Fuels is pioneering heavy rare earth element (HREE) production in the U.S., crucial for the permanent magnet industry [8] - The Donald Project in Australia is expected to start production by the end of 2027, with significant quantities of REE oxides in Madagascar and Brazil [9] - The company has a debt-free balance sheet and aims to ramp up uranium production to 6 million pounds annually [10] Group 3: Cameco Analysis - Cameco accounted for 16% of global uranium production in 2024 and plans to produce 18 million pounds at key sites in 2025 [13] - The company targets uranium deliveries of 31-34 million pounds in 2025, with production at joint venture Inkai resuming after a temporary suspension [15] - Cameco's financial strength is highlighted by a total debt to total capital ratio of 0.15 as of March 31, 2025, and plans to extend the mine life at Cigar Lake to 2036 [17] - The company expects a $170 million increase in its equity share of Westinghouse Electric's adjusted EBITDA due to nuclear reactor construction projects [18][19] Group 4: Financial Estimates and Performance - Energy Fuels' 2025 revenue is expected to drop by 41.24%, with a projected loss of $0.27 per share, while 2026 estimates show a 199.8% revenue surge and a potential profit of $0.06 per share [20][21] - Cameco's 2025 revenue is projected to grow by 10.2%, with earnings expected to increase by 120.4% [22] - Year-to-date, Energy Fuels stock has appreciated 84.8%, outperforming Cameco's 54.1% gain [24] - Energy Fuels trades at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 19.34X, while Cameco's is at 13.21X [26] Group 5: Conclusion - Both companies face short-term revenue challenges due to weak uranium prices, but Energy Fuels offers diversification through rare earth elements, while Cameco benefits from its fuel services business [27] - Energy Fuels has a stronger balance sheet and stock momentum, making it a more compelling investment choice compared to Cameco [28]

Company Overview - Cameco (CCJ) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings, with a projected EPS of $0.35, reflecting a +250% change, and revenues anticipated at $681.82 million, up 56% from the previous year [3][12]. Earnings Report Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for July 31, and if the results exceed expectations, the stock may rise; conversely, a miss could lead to a decline [2][12]. - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analyst expectations [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +27.12% for Cameco, suggesting analysts have become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. - However, Cameco currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Cameco's actual earnings of $0.11 per share fell short of the expected $0.18, resulting in a surprise of -38.89% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Cameco has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [14]. Industry Comparison - Another player in the mining industry, Materion (MTRN), is expected to post earnings of $1.18 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of -16.9%, with revenues projected at $407.7 million, down 4.3% [18][19]. - Materion has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.28% and a Zacks Rank of 1, suggesting a higher likelihood of beating consensus EPS estimates [20].

Core Insights - Cameco Corporation (CCJ) has demonstrated a strong growth trajectory with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.8% in revenues from 2021 to 2024, and a 17% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2025 to CAD 789 million ($550 million) [1][12] Revenue Performance - The uranium segment's revenues increased by 10% in Q1 2025, driven by a 15% rise in the Canadian dollar average realized price, despite a 5% decline in sales volumes [2] - In 2024, Cameco delivered 33.6 million pounds of uranium, generating revenues of CAD 2.68 billion ($2.29 billion), with forecasts for 2025 sales deliveries between 31-34 million pounds and revenues projected at CAD 2.8–3.0 billion [3] Fuel Services Division - The fuel services division saw a significant revenue increase of 88% in Q1 2025, reaching $135 million, supported by a 60% rise in sales volumes and a 17% increase in average realized price [4] - For 2025, fuel services revenues are projected to be CAD 500–550 million, with sales deliveries of 13–14 million kgU [5] Market Comparison - In contrast to Cameco, peers like Energy Fuels and Ur Energy have shown more volatile revenue patterns due to their strategies of withholding sales during low price periods [6] - Energy Fuels reported a 106% year-over-year revenue surge to $78.11 million in 2024, but faced a 33.5% decline in Q1 2025 due to withheld uranium sales [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Cameco shares have gained 50% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 18.7% and the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector's increase of 12.4% [11] - The company is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 12.87, significantly higher than the industry's 1.24 and above its five-year median of 6.58 [13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco's earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates a year-over-year growth of 120.4%, with a projected growth of 49.6% for 2026 [14]

Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Investment guru Jim Cramer recommended buying ConocoPhillips (COP) based on insights from the volatile energy market [1] - Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers maintained an Overweight rating for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and raised the price target from $120 to $185 [2] - RBC Capital analyst Andrew Wong maintained an Outperform rating for Cameco (CCJ) and raised the price target from $90 to $100 [2] Group 2: Price Movements - ConocoPhillips shares gained 1.4% to settle at $92.81 [4] - AMD shares rose 0.2% to close at $160.41 [4] - Cameco shares gained 2.3% to settle at $77.91 [4]

Company Performance - Cameco (CCJ) closed at $77.91, reflecting a +2.26% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.54% [1] - The stock has risen by 9.36% over the past month, contrasting with the Basic Materials sector's slight loss of 0.05% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.2% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Analysts expect Cameco to report earnings of $0.36 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 260% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $681.82 million, representing a 56% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] Full Year Estimates - For the full year, analysts anticipate earnings of $1.09 per share and revenue of $2.51 billion, reflecting changes of +122.45% and +10.16% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Forecast Revisions - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Cameco are important as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating confidence in business performance [4] Zacks Rank and Stock Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), shows Cameco currently holds a rank of 3 (Hold) [6] - Over the past month, there has been a 2.42% rise in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate [6] Valuation Metrics - Cameco is trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 70.08, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 21.65 [7] - The Mining - Miscellaneous industry, part of the Basic Materials sector, currently ranks in the bottom 41% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank [7]