Canadian National Railway lowered its earnings guidance for 2025 and removed its outlook for next year entirely as the trade war rattles key economic sectors https://t.co/SP8RAEkUfU ...

Financial Performance - Q2 Total Revenues were $4.3 billion, a decrease of 1%[15] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 2% to $1.87, while reported diluted EPS increased by 7%[14, 15] - Operating Ratio increased by 50 bps to 61.7% compared to adjusted, and increased by 230 bps compared to reported[15] - Year-to-date Free Cash Flow increased by 5% to $1.5 billion[48] Operational Efficiency - RTMs decreased by 1%[14, 15] - Car Velocity increased from 210 to 213 car miles per day[21] - Through Dwell decreased slightly from 6.9 to 6.8 hours[21] - Train delays caused by work blocks decreased by 4% year-to-date 2025 vs year-to-date 2024[26] - GTMS/T&E employee increased by 11% in Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024[30] - Tie installation efficiency increased by 7% in Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024[32] Revenue Breakdown - Overall carloads remained flat[36] - Grain & Fertilizers revenue increased by 12%, while Automotive, Forest products, Metals & Minerals, and Petroleum & Chemicals decreased by 6%, 9%, 7%, and 6% respectively[36] Outlook - The company now assumes low single-digit RTM growth for the year[43] - The company expects mid to high single-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth[58]

Core Viewpoint - CN has announced a quarterly dividend of C$0.8875 per common share for Q3 2025, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [1]. Group 1: Dividend Announcement - The Board of Directors approved a quarterly dividend of C$0.8875 per common share [1] - The dividend will be paid on September 29, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 8, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - CN transports over 300 million tons of natural resources, manufactured products, and finished goods across North America annually [2] - The company operates a nearly 20,000-mile rail network, connecting Canada's coasts with the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast [2] - CN has been contributing to sustainable trade and community prosperity since its establishment in 1919 [2].

Core Viewpoint - CN reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, demonstrating resilience in a challenging external environment, with a focus on cost control and customer service [2][4]. Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q2 2025 were C$4,272 million, a decrease of C$57 million or 1% compared to Q2 2024 [10][11]. - Freight revenues decreased by C$63 million or 2% to C$4,090 million [10][12]. - Operating income increased by C$80 million or 5% to C$1,638 million, while adjusted operating income remained flat [10][11]. - Net income for Q2 2025 was C$1,172 million, an increase of C$58 million or 5% compared to Q2 2024 [10][19]. - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose to C$1.87, a 7% increase from C$1.75 in Q2 2024 [10][19]. Operational Metrics - Revenue ton miles (RTMs) decreased by 1% to 59,215 million [10][12]. - Operating ratio improved to 61.7%, a 2.3-point improvement from 64.0% in Q2 2024 [10][11]. - Free cash flow for Q2 2025 was C$922 million, down from C$947 million in Q2 2024 [10][25]. Updated Guidance - CN revised its 2025 guidance, now expecting adjusted diluted EPS growth in the mid to high single-digit range, down from the previous expectation of 10%-15% [4][5]. - The company has removed its financial outlook for 2024-2026 due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty related to trade and tariff policies [5][4]. Sector Impact - CN plays a crucial role in powering the North American economy by transporting over 300 million tons of goods annually, contributing to sustainable trade [8].

CN's senior officers will review the results and the railway's outlook in a conference call starting at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time today. Tracy Robinson, CN President and Chief Executive Officer, will lead the call. Parties wishing to participate via telephone may dial 1-800-715-9871 (Canada/U.S.), or 1-647-932-3411 (International), using 7456934 as the passcode. Participants are advised to dial in 10 minutes prior to the call. CN will webcast the presentation live and furnish slides supporting the officers' re ...

Core Points - CN announced the appointment of Janet Drysdale as interim Chief Commercial Officer following the departure of Remi G. Lalonde [1][3] - Janet Drysdale has nearly 30 years of experience at CN, with a strong background in Sales and Marketing, and has held various executive roles [2][4] - The Chief Commercial Officer position is critical for overseeing CN's sales and marketing team, and the company prioritizes finding a permanent replacement [3] Company Background - CN is a major player in the transportation sector, moving over 300 million tons of natural resources, manufactured products, and finished goods across North America annually [5] - The company operates a nearly 20,000-mile rail network, connecting Canada's coasts with the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast, contributing to sustainable trade [5]

Core Viewpoint - Canadian National (CNI) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.37 per share, a 1.5% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $3.15 billion, reflecting a 0.4% decrease compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.2% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Key Metrics - Analysts project the 'Operating Ratio' to be 61.6%, down from 64.0% a year ago [4]. - 'Carloads - Coal' are expected to reach 118.19 thousand, up from 115.00 thousand year-over-year [5]. - Total 'Carloads' are estimated at 1.39 million, down from 1.42 million in the previous year [5]. - 'Carloads - Metals & Minerals' are projected at 235.00 thousand, down from 247.00 thousand [5]. - 'Carloads - Petroleum & Chemicals' are expected to be 159.84 thousand, down from 162.00 thousand [6]. - 'Carloads - Automotive' are estimated at 56.21 thousand, down from 59.00 thousand [6]. - 'Carloads - Intermodal' are projected at 578.85 thousand, down from 597.00 thousand [6]. - 'Carloads - Forest Products' are expected to be 73.81 thousand, down from 77.00 thousand [7]. - 'Carloads - Grain & Fertilizers' are projected at 170.25 thousand, up from 162.00 thousand [7]. Revenue Ton Miles - 'Revenue Ton Miles - Grain & Fertilizers' are expected to reach 15.67 billion, up from 14.59 billion year-over-year [8]. - 'Revenue Ton Miles - Coal' are projected at 5.42 billion, up from 5.29 billion [8]. - 'Revenue Ton Miles - Forest Products' are estimated at 5.62 billion, down from 5.75 billion [8]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, CNI shares have returned +1%, compared to the S&P 500 composite's +4.2% change [10]. - CNI currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting performance may align with the overall market in the near future [10].

Company Overview - Canadian National (CNI) is based in Montreal, Quebec, and operates in the Transportation sector, specifically in railroads. The company's shares have experienced a price change of 1.51% this year [3]. Dividend Information - CNI currently pays a dividend of $0.65 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.52%, which is higher than the Transportation - Rail industry's yield of 1.52% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.55% [3]. - The annualized dividend of CNI is $2.59, reflecting a 5.7% increase from the previous year. Over the past five years, the company has raised its dividend five times, achieving an average annual increase of 7.31% [4]. Earnings Growth and Future Outlook - For the fiscal year, CNI anticipates solid earnings growth, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 projected at $5.65 per share, indicating a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 9.07% [5]. - The future growth of dividends will depend on earnings growth and the payout ratio, which is currently at 47%, meaning CNI pays out 47% of its trailing 12-month earnings per share as dividends [4]. Investment Considerations - CNI is considered a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong dividend profile. The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Canadian National (CNI) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues when it releases its quarterly results for June 2025 [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - CNI is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.37 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +1.5% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $3.15 billion, indicating a decrease of 0.5% compared to the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.18% over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for CNI is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.57%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates, with a strong predictive power for positive readings [9][10]. - CNI currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat given the negative Earnings ESP [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, CNI was expected to post earnings of $1.26 per share but exceeded expectations with actual earnings of $1.29, resulting in a surprise of +2.38% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, CNI has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [14]. Conclusion - CNI does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat based on current estimates and revisions, but other factors may influence stock performance around the earnings release [17].

Core Insights - Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) is investing $110 million in Wisconsin as part of its 2025 capital investment program, indicating strong confidence in the region's economic potential and the future of freight rail [1] - The investment focuses on track maintenance and strategic infrastructure initiatives to enhance rail operations, including improvements in infrastructure, technology, capacity, and network performance [2][9] - CNI's president, Tracy Robinson, emphasized that investing in the network is about building for the future and aims to strengthen the resiliency and efficiency of the network across Wisconsin [3] Investment Details - The $110 million investment in Wisconsin follows a similar expenditure in the previous year, which also amounted to $110 million, primarily for track maintenance and infrastructure improvements [3][9] - CNI has made several other significant investments across various states, including $50 million in Louisiana, $85 million in Michigan, and $600 million CAD in Ontario, among others, demonstrating a commitment to expanding rail operations [5] Strategic Focus - CNI is doubling down on its core strengths of efficiency, innovation, and infrastructure, which are expected to pave the way for long-term returns [4] - The company's robust investment initiatives are believed to enhance investor confidence and support long-term performance [6]