For the quarter ended December 2025, Canadian National (CNI) reported revenue of $3.2 billion, up 2.8% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $1.49, compared to $1.30 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.19 billion, representing a surprise of +0.49%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +4.56%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.43.While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Str ...

Company Overview - Canadian National Railway Company (NYSE:CNI) is a significant entity in the North American transportation sector, providing rail services across Canada and the United States, and is a vital part of the logistics and supply chain industry [1] Analyst Sentiment - The consensus price target for CNI has fluctuated, with an average target of $101 set a month ago, down from $102 in the previous quarter and $105.8 a year ago, indicating a more conservative outlook from analysts [2][6] - Wells Fargo has set a more optimistic price target of $130 for CNI, reflecting confidence in the company's potential to exceed earnings estimates, supported by expectations of earnings growth in the upcoming financial release [3][5][6] Market Conditions - The current market is perceived as expensive, with historical patterns suggesting low returns often follow market peaks, yet a consensus expectation of 15% growth in S&P 500 earnings, driven by AI advancements, supports a stable long-term market outlook [4] - The reliance on short-term debt by the U.S. government makes interest expenses sensitive to Federal Reserve policy changes, affecting market complexity and long-term yields [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a 14% growth in EPS and a 7% growth for the full year, aligning with mid to high single-digit guidance [9] - The operating ratio improved to 60.1% in Q4, a 250 basis point improvement year-over-year, and 61.7% for the full year, improving 120 basis points compared to 2024 [9][33] - Cash flow generated was $3.3 billion, up 8% driven by cash from operations, with capital spending remaining disciplined [9][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company saw a 5% year-over-year increase in workload, supported by record-setting grain tonnage from Western Canada [18] - Intermodal revenues increased by 13% internationally and 6% domestically, with strong performance at Vancouver and Prince Rupert [25] - Petroleum and Chemicals segment experienced growth across all areas, particularly a 9% increase in natural gas liquids volumes [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company faced continued softness in key markets like forest products and metals, impacted by weak fundamentals and tariffs [25][30] - Tariffs and trade uncertainty negatively impacted full year 2025 revenues by over $350 million [27] - The outlook for 2026 suggests volumes will be flattish compared to 2025, with expectations of continued pressure in forest products and metals [12][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined execution, prioritizing levers it can control, and maintaining strong cash flow while returning excess capital to shareholders [11][13] - The management emphasized the importance of operational efficiency and cost control, with a commitment to improving margins as volumes return [14][22] - The company is positioned to leverage its access to North American markets and natural resources, aiming to support customers as trade flows evolve [16][58] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management acknowledged high uncertainty in the economic environment, with muted growth expectations and challenges related to tariffs [12][30] - The company plans to continue focusing on productivity and cost control, with a base case expectation of flat volumes for 2026 [12][39] - Management expressed confidence in the underlying earnings power of the business, despite current headwinds, and highlighted the potential for growth in natural resources and trade diversification [52][77] Other Important Information - The board approved a 3% increase in dividends, marking the 30th consecutive year of dividend growth [37] - A new share buyback program was authorized, allowing the repurchase of up to 24 million common shares [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on incremental revenue target - The company closed with $100 million in incremental revenue for Q4, with a pipeline of another $100 million developing in January [45] Question: Clarification on depreciation and earnings growth - Depreciation variance was due to a favorable study and corrections from past acquisitions; the company is experiencing unique headwinds affecting earnings growth [49][50] Question: Outlook on mix and differentiated growth opportunities - The mix impact for 2026 is expected to be similar to 2025, with opportunities in northern markets and natural resources, particularly in agriculture and energy [56][58] Question: Guidance on volume and earnings shape for 2026 - The first half of 2026 is expected to be softer, with improvement anticipated in the second half, influenced by share buybacks [62] Question: Clarification on free cash flow conversion - The company expects improved free cash flow conversion in 2026, despite a sizable cash tax payment impacting the effective tax rate [80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a 14% growth in EPS and a 7% growth for the full year, aligning with mid to high single-digit guidance [9] - The operating ratio improved to 60.1% in Q4, a 250 basis point improvement year-over-year, and 61.7% for the full year, improving 120 basis points compared to 2024 [9][33] - Cash flow generated was CAD 3.3 billion, up 8% driven by cash from operations, with capital spending remaining disciplined [9][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 4% increase in revenue ton miles (RTMs) and a 3% increase in carloads in Q4, contributing to a 2% revenue growth despite challenging market conditions [24][26] - Intermodal revenues increased by 13% internationally and 6% domestically, with strong performance noted at Vancouver and Prince Rupert [25][26] - Grain shipments set an all-time annual record in 2025, with monthly records achieved in October, November, and December [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company faced continued softness in key markets such as forest products and metals, impacted by weak fundamentals and tariffs [25][27] - Petroleum and Chemicals saw growth across all segments, particularly a 9% increase in natural gas liquids volumes driven by strong domestic demand [26] - The overall revenue was negatively impacted by over CAD 350 million due to tariffs, trade uncertainty, and volatility [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasized disciplined execution and productivity improvement as key strategies moving forward, with a focus on areas within their control [8][11] - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong cash flow and returning excess capital to shareholders while navigating a challenging macro environment [8][12] - Future guidance will be more directional, tied closely to volume trends, with expectations of flat volumes compared to 2025 [12][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged high uncertainty and limited visibility in the economic environment, with muted growth expectations and ongoing tariff pressures [11][12] - The company plans to leverage its strong operating leverage and cash generation capabilities to drive earnings and margins as volumes improve [13][41] - The management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate through challenges and capitalize on opportunities in the North American markets [15][16] Other Important Information - The board approved a 3% increase in dividends, marking the 30th consecutive year of dividend growth, reflecting confidence in cash generation [38] - A new share buyback program was authorized, allowing the repurchase of up to 24 million common shares [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on incremental revenue target - The company closed with CAD 100 million in incremental revenue for Q4, with an additional CAD 100 million in the pipeline for January [44][45] Question: Clarification on depreciation and earnings growth - Depreciation variance was due to a favorable study and corrections from over-depreciation in past acquisitions [49] - Management indicated that current headwinds are unique and not indicative of a decoupling of earnings from volume [50][52] Question: Outlook on mix and differentiated growth opportunities - The mix impact for 2026 is expected to be similar to 2025, with opportunities in northern markets and natural resources highlighted [56][58] Question: Guidance on volume and earnings shape for 2026 - The first half of 2026 is expected to be softer, with improvement anticipated in the second half [62][63] Question: Volume outlook and performance at Prince Rupert - Strong performance is expected in agriculture and energy sectors, with ongoing investments in infrastructure at Prince Rupert [66][70]

Canadian National Railway Company (NYSE:CNI) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 30, 2026 08:30 AM ET Speaker20Good morning! CN's fourth quarter 2025 financial and operating results conference call will begin momentarily. Thank you for your patience.Speaker11Good morning. My name is Krista, and I will be your operator today. All participants are now in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session, during which we ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question. A ...

Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial and Operating Results January 30th, 2026 Q4 Introduction CN reports its financial results in accordance with United States generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). CN may also use non-GAAP measures in this presentation that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP. These non-GAAP measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Forward-looking statements Certain statements included in this presentation constit ...

Key TakeawaysCanadian National Railway (CNR) exceeded analyst expectations with a Q4 adjusted EPS of C$2.08, outperforming estimates of C$1.98, while revenue met forecasts at C$4.46 billion.Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino has instructed maritime authorities to immediately meet with Panama Ports Company, signaling a significant operational shift for the country's port terminals.APM Terminals Panama, a subsidiary of A.P. Møller – Mærsk (MAERSK-B), has expressed willingness to temporarily take over the o ...

Core Viewpoint - CN has announced a 3% increase in its 2026 dividend and a new share repurchase program, reflecting strong cash flow and a disciplined capital management approach [1][2]. Dividend Announcement - The Board of Directors approved a quarterly dividend of C$0.9150 per common share, to be paid on March 31, 2026, to shareholders of record by March 10, 2026 [6]. Share Repurchase Program - The new normal course issuer bid (Bid) allows CN to repurchase up to 24 million common shares, representing 3.9% of the total shares outstanding as of January 22, 2026 [2][4]. - The Bid will run from February 4, 2026, to February 3, 2027, and will include various methods of share acquisition, subject to regulatory approvals [3][4]. - The previous share repurchase program, which allowed for the purchase of up to 20 million shares, is set to expire on February 3, 2026, with 15,250,222 shares repurchased at an average price of C$134.44 [5].

Fourth quarter diluted earnings per share (EPS) growth of 12%, or 14% on an adjusted basis (1)Fourth quarter operating ratio of 61.2%, or 60.1% on an adjusted basis (1)2025 diluted EPS growth of 8%, or 7% on an adjusted basis (1)2025 operating ratio of 61.9%, or 61.7% on an adjusted basis (1)Approximately 15 million shares repurchased in 2025 for approximately C$2 billionCapital program spending set at C$2.8 billion* for 2026, a decrease of C$500 million from 2025 (2) MONTREAL, Jan. 30, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE ...

Canadian National reported fourth-quarter revenue and operating income improved as it moved higher volumes of freight more efficiently from the same period a year ago. Revenues of US$3.30 billion increased 2% while operating income of $1.28 billion was higher by 6%, the company said in a release prior to market openings. Adjusted operating income increased 9% to $1.32 billion. Net income of $920 million also was 9% higher, and adjusted net income of $1.28 million grew 12%. Diluted earnings per share inc ...