Core Insights - Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) reported a revenue of $6.29 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period was $0.51, down from $0.64 a year ago, but exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.44 by 15.91% [1] Financial Performance - The reported revenue of $6.29 billion slightly surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.28 billion, resulting in a surprise of +0.09% [1] - The company’s stock has returned -2% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +1.2% [3] Production Metrics - Total average daily production was 1,420,358 BOE/D, below the analyst estimate of 1,467,614 BOE/D [4] - Oil & liquids average daily production was 1,019,149 BBL/D, compared to the estimate of 1,051,255 BBL/D [4] - Natural gas average daily production was 2,407 million cubic feet per day, slightly below the estimate of 2,427.79 million cubic feet per day [4] - Thermal In Situ Oil production was 274.79 thousand barrels per day, compared to the estimate of 283.52 thousand barrels per day [4] - Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading production was 463.81 thousand barrels per day, below the estimate of 486.95 thousand barrels per day [4] - North Sea Oil production was 7.76 thousand barrels per day, significantly lower than the estimate of 11.92 thousand barrels per day [4] - Offshore Africa Oil production was 1.77 thousand barrels per day, compared to the estimate of 7.21 thousand barrels per day [4] - North America Natural Gas production was 2,398 Mcf/D, below the estimate of 2,452.11 Mcf/D [4]

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Core Viewpoint - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) reported strong financial performance in Q2 2025, driven by effective capital allocation, operational efficiencies, and successful acquisitions, which collectively enhance shareholder value. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, CNRL generated adjusted net earnings of approximately $1.5 billion or $0.71 per share, with adjusted funds flow of $3.3 billion or $1.56 per share [7][9][12] - The company returned approximately $1.6 billion to shareholders in Q2 2025, including $1.2 billion in dividends and $0.4 billion in share repurchases [7][15] - For the first half of 2025, net earnings totaled approximately $4.9 billion, reflecting a significant increase from $2.7 billion in the same period of 2024 [9][12] Production and Operations - CNRL's total production in Q2 2025 was approximately 1,420,358 BOE/d, a 10% increase from Q2 2024 levels, despite a production reduction of about 120,000 bbl/d due to a planned turnaround at the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) [3][13] - Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading production averaged 463,808 bbl/d in Q2 2025, a 13% increase from Q2 2024, attributed to successful operational enhancements [29][32] - The company achieved high upgrader utilization of 106% in July 2025, with expectations for continued strong operating results in the second half of 2025 [2][32] Capital Allocation and Acquisitions - CNRL successfully completed a planned turnaround at AOSP five days ahead of schedule and on budget, enhancing production reliability [2][3] - The company closed an acquisition of liquids-rich Montney assets for approximately $750 million, adding about 32,000 BOE/d to production [7][17] - CNRL's business model allows for a top-tier WTI breakeven in the low to mid-US$40 per barrel range, ensuring sufficient cash flow to cover maintenance capital and dividends [8][9] Cost Management - Operating costs in the Duvernay assets averaged $8.43/BOE in Q2 2025, a decrease of 11% from Q1 2025 levels, reflecting continuous improvement efforts [5][27] - The company achieved strong capital efficiencies in its drilling programs, targeting to drill 182 net primary heavy crude oil multilateral wells in 2025, an increase of 26 wells from the original budget [4][24] Market Conditions - The WTI benchmark price averaged US$63.71/bbl in Q2 2025, reflecting a decrease from previous quarters due to weaker global demand and increased OPEC+ output [33][36] - The SCO price averaged US$64.69/bbl in Q2 2025, representing a premium to WTI pricing, which improved compared to previous quarters [33][36]

Core Viewpoint - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 earnings of 44 cents per share on revenues of $6.28 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decrease in both earnings and revenues [1][3][8]. Group 1: Recent Performance - In the last reported quarter, CNQ achieved adjusted earnings per share of 81 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 73 cents, with total revenues of $7.6 billion exceeding the estimate of $6.8 billion [2]. - CNQ has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate three times in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.95% [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Q2 Performance - The company has seen a rebound in North America's natural gas prices, with Henry Hub spot prices averaging $3.19 per million British thermal units in Q2 2025, which is expected to support CNQ's realized pricing [5]. - CNQ's production growth is anticipated to be around 12% for the year, driven by recent acquisitions and ongoing drilling programs, contributing to increased output in Q2 2025 [6]. - However, revenues are projected to decline by 5.1% from the previous year due to poor performance in the Exploration and Production segments [7]. Group 3: Cost and Margin Pressures - The newly imposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil and gas exports since March 2025 are expected to create additional cost burdens and competitive disadvantages for CNQ, impacting margins and earnings [8][9]. - Total expenses for Q2 are estimated at C$7.13 billion, a 4.3% increase from C$6.80 billion in the same quarter last year, with production costs rising by 2.4% to C$2.03 billion [10].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show earnings of $0.44 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 31.3%, with revenues projected at $6.28 billion, down 5.1% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a stable outlook from covering analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for CNQ is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +4.89%, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, CNQ exceeded the expected earnings of $0.73 per share by delivering $0.81, resulting in a surprise of +10.96%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13][14]. Conclusion - Canadian Natural Resources is positioned as a strong candidate for an earnings beat, but investors should consider additional factors beyond earnings expectations when making investment decisions [17].

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Core Viewpoint - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is a leading independent energy producer with a diversified portfolio across North America, the U.K. North Sea, and Offshore Africa, focusing on long-life, low-decline assets to ensure predictable cash flow [1][3][4] Group 1: Growth Drivers - CNQ reported record production levels of approximately 1.58 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) in Q1 2025, with 79% from long-life, low-decline assets [3] - The company posted C$2.4 billion in adjusted net earnings and C$4.5 billion in adjusted funds flow during the same quarter, with a quarterly dividend payout of 58.75 Canadian cents, yielding 5.3% annually [4] - CNQ's Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading operations reported average operating costs of C$21.88 per barrel, significantly lower than its peers [5] - Strategic acquisitions, including Duvernay assets, are expected to ramp production toward 60,000 BOE/d by 2025, with reduced well costs due to efficiency gains [6] - CNQ's low breakeven WTI price in the low to mid-$40s enhances its resilience as a producer [7] Group 2: Financial Performance - CNQ reduced net debt by C$1.4 billion and generated free cash flow of C$1.85 billion in Q1 2025, maintaining a robust balance sheet [4] - The consensus revenue estimate for CNQ in 2025 is $26.96 billion, indicating a 3.6% year-over-year rise [10][17] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CNQ's 2025 earnings is $2.33 per share, reflecting a 7.91% year-over-year decline [17] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - CNQ's long-term debt stands at C$17.3 billion, which may restrict financial flexibility in a high-interest-rate environment [8] - Operational risks include a projected annual output cut of 31,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing AOSP turnaround [9] - The company faces increased compliance costs and reputational risks due to strict competition regulations in Canada [12]

Core Insights - The energy sector is currently viewed as significantly undervalued compared to the technology sector, which is considered overvalued [2] - Canadian Natural Resources is highlighted as a particularly undervalued company within the energy sector, especially in the Canadian market [2] Company Insights - Canadian Natural Resources is identified as a defensive stock with potential for medium- to long-term investment [2] - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in Canadian Natural Resources, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [3]