Core Viewpoint - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is a significant player in the oil and gas sector, focusing on low-cost, long-lasting projects to maintain profitability despite energy price fluctuations [1][3][4] Group 1: Positive Factors Supporting CNQ - Record-high production levels reached 1.36 million BOE/d in 2024, with fourth-quarter production at 1.47 million BOE/d, indicating strong growth across various operations [3] - CNQ operates with one of the lowest cost structures in the industry, with Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading costs at C$22.88 per bbl in 2024 and C$20.97 per bbl in Q4, enhancing margins [4] - The company generated C$14.9 billion in adjusted funds flow in 2024, returning C$7.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, showcasing strong free cash flow [5][6] - CNQ has secured 256,500 bbl/d of crude transportation capacity, reducing exposure to egress bottlenecks and enhancing profitability through access to higher-margin international markets [7] - Strategic acquisitions, including the Chevron deal, enhance long-term cash flow and provide stable, high-margin assets, ensuring sustainable growth [8] Group 2: Concerns and Risks - CNQ's share price has decreased by 15.3% over the past six months, underperforming compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas Exploration and Production sub-industry's decline of 9.9% [9] - Net earnings fell to C$6.1 billion in 2024, down 26% from C$8.2 billion in 2023, raising concerns about future profitability [12] - The company's financial performance is heavily reliant on crude oil and natural gas prices, with prolonged weak pricing potentially impacting cash flow [14] - CNQ's limited international expansion makes it vulnerable to local economic slowdowns and policy changes, restricting its ability to capture new market opportunities [15] - The growth strategy is dependent on pipeline projects, and any delays or cost overruns could lead to bottlenecks and increased costs [16] Group 3: Overall Assessment - CNQ has demonstrated impressive growth with record production and a low-cost structure, providing stability and shareholder returns [17] - However, recent stock performance and declining net earnings raise concerns about future profitability, suggesting a cautious approach for investors [18]

Core Insights - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of 66 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 69 cents, and down from 97 cents in the previous year due to lower natural gas prices and increased expenses [1] - Total revenues for the quarter were $6.8 billion, down from $7 billion year-over-year, primarily due to increased royalty expenses, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.4 billion due to higher product sales [2] Financial Performance - CNQ's net earnings for the fourth quarter were approximately C$1.1 billion, with adjusted net earnings from operations around C$2 billion [6] - Cash flows from operating activities totaled approximately C$3.4 billion, while adjusted funds flow reached approximately C$4.2 billion [6] - Total expenses in the quarter were C$7.9 billion, an increase from C$6.6 billion in the prior year, driven by higher transportation, blending, and feedstock costs [17] Shareholder Returns - The board approved a 4.4% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to 58.75 Canadian cents per share, payable on April 4, 2025 [3] - In 2024, CNQ returned approximately C$7.1 billion to shareholders, comprising C$4.4 billion in dividends and C$2.7 billion through share repurchases [8] Production and Operational Highlights - CNQ reported quarterly production of 1,470,428 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/D), a 3.6% increase from the prior year [9] - Natural gas production volumes totaled 2,283 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), up 2.3% year-over-year [10] - The company achieved record quarterly production in its Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading operations, reaching 534,631 barrels per day of synthetic crude oil [13] Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for the quarter was C$1.3 billion, compared to C$1 billion a year ago [17] - The company achieved industry-leading annual operating costs for Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading at C$20.97 per barrel in the fourth quarter [15] Balance Sheet and Debt - As of December 31, CNQ had cash and cash equivalents of C$131 million and long-term debt of C$16.4 billion, with a debt to total capital ratio of about 50% [18] Future Guidance - For 2024, CNQ expects a 12% increase in production, targeting a range of 1,510 MBOE/d to 1,555 MBOE/d, and anticipates a 14% rise in natural gas production [19]

Group 1 - Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ:CA)(NYSE: CNQ) is the largest owner of assets in Canada's oil sands, which are considered valuable for investment portfolios [1] - The shares of Canadian Natural Resources are currently undervalued, with prices not being this low in a significant period [1] - The company is highlighted as an excellent option for investors looking for solid dividend-paying stocks in Canada [1]

Core Insights - Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) reported a revenue of $6.77 billion for Q4 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 3.6% and an EPS of $0.66 compared to $0.86 a year ago, with revenue exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.39 billion by 5.88% [1] - The company experienced an EPS surprise of -4.35%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.69 [1] Financial Performance - The stock of Canadian Natural Resources has returned -11.7% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by -3.5% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for the stock is 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3] Production Metrics - Average daily production was 1,470,428 BOE/D, surpassing the estimated 1,436,480 BOE/D [4] - Primary Heavy Oil production was 82.13 thousand barrels per day, slightly above the estimated 81.86 thousand barrels [4] - Thermal In Situ Oil production was 276.23 thousand barrels per day, below the estimated 281.07 thousand barrels [4] - Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading production was 534.63 thousand barrels per day, exceeding the estimated 507.12 thousand barrels [4] - Pelican Lake Oil production was 44.04 thousand barrels per day, below the estimated 45.71 thousand barrels [4] - North Sea Oil production was 11.47 thousand barrels per day, slightly below the estimated 11.98 thousand barrels [4] - North Sea Natural Gas production was 4 Mcf/D, significantly above the estimated 1.46 Mcf/D [4] - Offshore Africa Oil production was 11.94 thousand barrels per day, below the estimated 13.55 thousand barrels [4] - Average daily production of oil & liquids was 1,090,002 BBL/D, exceeding the estimated 1,064,114 BBL/D [4] - Average daily production of natural gas was 2,283 million cubic feet, surpassing the estimated 2,225.38 million cubic feet [4] - North America Natural Gas production was 2,273 Mcf/D, above the estimated 2,214.17 Mcf/D [4] - Offshore Africa Natural Gas production was 6 Mcf/D, below the estimated 9.75 Mcf/D [4]

Group 1 - The core focus of Mountain Valley Value Investments is to identify undervalued companies with strong growth potential across various sectors [1] - The investment philosophy emphasizes long-term value and disciplined research, aiming to buy at the right price [1] - The company leverages deep industry insights and rigorous analysis to uncover opportunities that can deliver strong returns [1] Group 2 - The commitment to highlighting risks that may impact the investment thesis is a key aspect of the company's approach [1] - The goal is to provide actionable investment ideas that are sustainable over time [1] - The company encourages following for in-depth analysis and thoughtful perspectives on high-potential stocks [1]

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE:CNQ) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call March 6, 2025 11:00 AM ET Corporate Participants Lance Casson - Manager of Investor Relations Scott Stauth - President Robin Zabek - Chief Operating Officer of E&P Mark Stainthorpe - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Greg Pardy - RBC Capital Markets Dennis Fong - CIBC Manav Gupta - UBS Financial Patrick O'Rourke - ATB Capital Markets Menno Hulshof - TD Securities Roger Read - Wells Fargo John Moyle - JPMorgan N ...

Core Viewpoint - The Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio aims to achieve an overall yield in the range of 7% to 10% by combining various income streams to create a steady portfolio payout [1] Company Performance - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE: CNQ) reported strong Q4 results, highlighting excellent production growth [1] - The company is expected to have another record operational year in 2025 due to an asset swap that will drive production [1] Investment Focus - The Cash Flow Club, where the author contributes, focuses on company cash flows and access to capital, targeting a yield of over 6% [1] - The club offers features such as community chat, a "Best Opportunities" List, and coverage of sectors including energy midstream, commercial mREITs, BDCs, and shipping [1]

Group 1 - Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) reported quarterly earnings of $0.66 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.69 per share, and down from $0.86 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -4.35% [1] - The company posted revenues of $6.77 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.88%, but down from $7.02 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Canadian Natural Resources has surpassed consensus revenue estimates four times [2] Group 2 - The stock has lost about 11.1% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by -0.7% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.69 on revenues of $6.66 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.48 on revenues of $26.26 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - Canadian is currently in the bottom 43% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential underperformance compared to higher-ranked industries [8]

Core Insights - Canadian Natural achieved record annual average production of over 1,363,000 BOE/d in 2024, with significant contributions from both oil sands and thermal in situ operations [1][6][17] - The company reported strong financial results, including adjusted net earnings of approximately $7.4 billion and adjusted funds flow of $14.9 billion for the year [4][17] - Canadian Natural's total proved reserves increased by 9% to 15.2 billion BOE, with a reserve life index of 33 years, indicating robust long-term growth potential [3][30] Operational Highlights - Record quarterly and annual Synthetic Crude Oil (SCO) production reached approximately 535,000 bbl/d and 472,000 bbl/d respectively, with an annual utilization rate of 99% [1][9][45] - Thermal in situ production also set records at approximately 271,000 bbl/d, with strong operating costs of $11.04/bbl (US$8.06/bbl) [1][41] - The company achieved industry-leading operating costs of $20.97/bbl (US$15.00/bbl) for SCO in Q4/24, reflecting a decrease of 6% from 2023 levels [4][21][46] Financial Performance - Canadian Natural returned approximately $7.1 billion to shareholders in 2024, including dividends and share repurchases, with a 4% increase in the quarterly dividend approved for 2025 [4][25] - The company maintained a strong balance sheet with a Debt to Book Capitalization of 32% and a Debt to Adjusted EBITDA of 1.1x [5][20] - Cash flows from operating activities totaled approximately $13.4 billion, supporting ongoing capital investments and shareholder returns [17][21] Growth and Acquisitions - Following the acquisition of Chevron's Alberta assets, Canadian Natural's working interest in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) will reach 100%, enhancing production capacity [2][20] - The company is targeting to increase total oil sands mining production capacity to approximately 592,000 bbl/d, up from 570,000 bbl/d, after completing various enhancement projects [2][10] - Canadian Natural's disciplined capital allocation strategy aims to maximize shareholder value while maintaining flexibility in its operations [28][32]

Group 1 - The Board of Directors of Canadian Natural Resources Limited approved a 4% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to C$0.5875 per common share, effective April 4, 2025 [1] - This marks the 25th consecutive year of dividend increases for the company, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% over this period, reflecting the Board's confidence in the sustainability of the business model and strong balance sheet [2] - Canadian Natural is a senior crude oil and natural gas production company with operations in Western Canada, the U.K. portion of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa [3]