Crypto markets are entering a phase where activity concentration matters more than narrative momentum, according to a new outlook from Coinbase Institutional that frames 2026 as a test of whether crypto’s core markets can scale under more disciplined conditions. The report, written by global head of research David Duong and research associate Colin Basco, argues that familiar crypto cycle models — built around retail speculation, token launches and protocol-specific catalysts — are becoming less reliable ...

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong predicts that US banks will eventually lobby for the ability to pay interest on stablecoins, reversing their current stance against it [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Context - The GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly to holders, but allows intermediaries like exchanges to pass yield from Treasury reserves to users [3][4]. - Banking lobbyists are pushing to amend the GENIUS Act to close the loophole that allows non-bank platforms to offer competitive yields of approximately 4% to 5% on liquid cash equivalents [5]. Group 2: Industry Response - Armstrong criticizes the banking lobby's attempts to amend the law as a "red line" for the crypto industry, arguing that it reflects a contradiction in their safety concerns while maintaining a business model that pays depositors below-market rates [6]. - A coalition of 125 crypto companies, including Coinbase, has submitted a letter to the Senate Banking Committee opposing any revisions to the GENIUS Act, asserting that reopening the bill would undermine regulatory certainty [6].

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong 在 X 平台发文表示，银行在推动稳定币利息和收益政策时， 展现了惊人的游说能力，并预测银行在几年后会转向支持支付稳定币利息和收益，因为他们会意识到这 一市场的巨大潜力。他强调，Coinbase 将继续为客户和加密行业争取权益，并坚决反对任何重启 GENIUS 的尝试，认为这是"红线"问题。 ...

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，Coinbase Markets 表示，BNKR、ZEC 和 FLOCK 这三种代币在今年在 Coinbase 上创造了最 高的回报。值得注意的是，BNKR 和 FLOCK 均为 Base 网络代币，但目前流通市值分别仅为 1,540 万美 元和 2,620 万美元。 ...

Core Insights - Coinbase experienced a significant security breach in May, where hackers bribed employees to steal sensitive customer data and demanded a ransom of $20 million, with potential remediation costs estimated at $400 million [1][4]. Group 1: Security Breach Details - The breach involved bribing contractors or employees outside the US to access customer information [1][4]. - The incident is noted as one of the most high-profile security breaches in the crypto trading platform sector [1][4]. Group 2: Law Enforcement Actions - Coinbase's CEO, Brian Armstrong, announced the arrest of a former customer service agent in India, linked to the breach [2][5]. - The company is collaborating with law enforcement to address bad behavior and has seen recent legal actions, including charges against an individual accused of running an impersonation scheme targeting Coinbase customers [5]. Group 3: Market Impact - Following the news of the breach and subsequent arrests, Coinbase's shares fell approximately 1.2% to $236.79, with a year-to-date decline of around 4.6% [5].

Group 1 - Coinbase Global, Inc. closed at $236.90, reflecting a -1.18% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500, which lost 0.03% [1] - Over the past month, Coinbase shares have decreased by 9.53%, contrasting with the Finance sector's gain of 4.37% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.57% [1] - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show earnings of $1.08 per share, a year-over-year decline of 68.14%, with projected revenue of $1.94 billion, down 14.61% from the same quarter last year [2] Group 2 - For the full year, earnings are projected at $7.96 per share and revenue at $7.33 billion, indicating increases of +4.74% and +11.68% respectively from the prior year [3] - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Coinbase are important as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating optimism about the business outlook [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses stock performance based on estimate changes, currently ranks Coinbase Global, Inc. at 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate having decreased by 0.45% in the past month [5][6] Group 3 - Coinbase Global, Inc. has a Forward P/E ratio of 30.11, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 12.43 [7] - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 102, placing it in the top 42% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Market Overview - The three major indices closed lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 reaching an intraday high of 6945.77 points, marking a historical peak. The Dow Jones increased by 1.2%, the Nasdaq by 1.22%, and the S&P 500 by 1.4%, achieving its fourth weekly gain in five weeks [1] - At the close, the Dow fell by 20.19 points (0.04%) to 48710.97 points, the Nasdaq dropped by 20.21 points (0.09%) to 23593.10 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 2.11 points (0.03%) to 6929.94 points [1] Cryptocurrency Insights - Bitcoin rose by 0.31% to $87494.88, with a low of $86653 during the day, while Ethereum increased by 0.94% to $2931.32. Market sentiment has turned cautious since mid-October, with traders speculating on a potential pressure phase in 2026 [3] - The report from Matrixport indicates that the market is transitioning from a phase of "downside risk dominance" to one where "downside is limited, and upside still requires catalysts" [3] Precious Metals - Spot gold increased by 1.12% to $4531.1, with an intraday high of $4549.95, while silver surged over 10% to $79.212, reaching a historical peak of $79.338 [4] - Analysts suggest that despite the silver surge, gold remains a safer investment due to its scarcity and higher per-ounce value. Predictions indicate silver could reach $80 by year-end, while gold's next target is $4686.81 per ounce, potentially hitting $5000 in the first half of next year [4][5] Individual Company News - Google announced that it will allow users to change their Gmail addresses without affecting account data, with the original address becoming an alias [8] - Coinbase has been rated as one of the top three fintech stocks for 2026 by Clear Street analysts, with a target price of $415, indicating a potential 70% upside from its current price of $234.5 [9] - Wedbush highlighted CrowdStrike as a key investment in the intersection of cybersecurity and AI, maintaining a "outperform" rating with a target price of $600 for 2026 [10] Economic Developments - Japan is projected to achieve its first basic fiscal surplus in 28 years in the 2026 fiscal year, with a record budget of 122.3 trillion yen (approximately $782 billion) approved by the cabinet [6]

Clear Street analyst Owen Lau has revealed his top three fintech ideas for 2026 and his third pick surprisingly belonged to a cryptocurrency company's stock. Lau chose two giants from the financial services sector, Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NDAQ) and S&P Global (Nasdaq: SPGI), and one crypto company, Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN), CoinDesk reported on Dec. 26. Launched by Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam in 2012, Coinbase went public in 2021. Apart from being the largest crypto exchange in the U.S., Coinbase also opera ...

据彭博社，Coinbase Global Inc. CEO Brian Armstrong 表示，一名前 Coinbase 客服外包人员因涉入黑客 事件已在印度被捕。Coinbase 今年 5 月披露，黑客通过贿赂美国以外的承包商或员工获取客户敏感信 息，并索要 2,000 万美元赎金，该事件被视为加密交易平台中较为严重的安全事故之一，公司当时预计 相关补救成本最高可达 4 亿美元。Coinbase 发言人确认了此次印度方面的逮捕，并称该进展与公司近期 配合 Brooklyn District Attorney's Office 调查有关，后者已对一名涉嫌长期冒充 Coinbase 从事诈骗的布 鲁克林男子提起指控。 （来源：吴说） ...

Core Viewpoint - The future of exchanges will be shaped by increased volatility, supportive U.S. economic policies, higher acceptance of digital assets, and increased retail trading, with a focus on comparing Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) and CME Group (CME) for long-term growth potential [1] Group 1: Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) - Coinbase is strategically positioned to benefit from President Trump's pro-crypto stance and aims to transform into an "everything exchange" offering a comprehensive range of financial services [3] - The company is expanding its product ecosystem, including enabling Solana on Base, launching decentralized exchange trading, and introducing new offerings like prediction markets and tokenized equities [4][5] - Coinbase's strategy extends beyond trading, promoting stablecoins for online payments and collaborating with Kalshi for prediction markets, reflecting efforts to diversify revenue streams [5][6] - The company is acquiring The Clearing Company to strengthen its presence in prediction markets, marking its tenth acquisition this year [6] - Coinbase has deepened integration with traditional finance by partnering with major institutions and discussing pilot programs for stablecoins and crypto trading services [7] - Despite facing profitability pressure from high operating costs and market volatility, Coinbase's expanding ecosystem and improving regulatory outlook support a long-term growth narrative [8] Group 2: CME Group (CME) - CME Group is the largest futures exchange globally, benefiting from a strong global presence, compelling product portfolio, and focus on over-the-counter clearing services [2] - The company supports global risk management across various asset classes, including digital assets, and is well-positioned for long-term growth through ongoing product innovation [10] - CME is experiencing rising electronic trading volumes and growing adoption of crypto-related products, supported by a favorable regulatory environment under President Trump [11] - The company's ability to grow organically and benefit from heightened market volatility translates into higher trading volumes and revenues [12] - CME's strong network effects and disciplined cost management enhance margins, allowing for regular capital returns through dividends and share repurchases [14] - However, CME faces concentration risk as interest rate and equity products account for a significant portion of revenues, and increasing competition from crypto platforms poses challenges [15] Group 3: Financial Estimates and Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN's 2025 revenues implies a 13.5% year-over-year increase, while EPS is expected to rise 4.7% [16] - In contrast, CME's 2025 revenues are projected to increase by 5.1%, but EPS is expected to decline by 4.3% [18] - COIN shares have lost 3.5% year-to-date, while CME shares have rallied 19% in the same period [21] - Coinbase is trading at a forward P/E multiple of 40.6, lower than its median of 46.1, while CME's forward P/E is at 23.8, higher than its median of 22.4 [22] Group 4: Conclusion - Coinbase benefits from a diversified revenue base, including trading fees, staking, custodial services, and derivatives, driven by growing institutional demand [23] - CME Group is well-positioned for growth through its efforts to expand futures products, diversify derivative offerings, and maintain a strong liquidity position [24]