Core Insights - GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) has experienced significant volatility, collapsing 31.8% in one week due to a selloff in Bitcoin, which affects crypto-linked equities [2][8] - The ETF's structure amplifies movements in Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) by two times, leading to greater portfolio destruction for leveraged ETF holders during market turbulence [2][8] Institutional Flows Impact - Institutional money flow is crucial for CONL's performance, with a notable $272 million exiting U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on February 4, causing Bitcoin ETF assets to drop below $100 billion for the first time since April 2025 [3][8] - This outflow directly impacts Coinbase's revenue, which relies on active trading for transaction fees, and a reversal in flows is necessary for Coinbase's business recovery [3] ETF Flow Reports - Weekly ETF flow reports from major issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity are essential for tracking net inflows or outflows, with historical data suggesting that significant outflows often coincide with local price bottoms [4] - The collapse on February 5-6 saw a volume spike to 49,371 BTC, indicating market capitulation, and a stabilization or positive turn in flows could lead to a Bitcoin recovery, benefiting Coinbase and CONL [4] Daily Rebalancing Effects - CONL's daily rebalancing structure incurs hidden costs known as leverage decay, which erodes value over time, especially during sideways market conditions [5] - When COIN dropped 15.2% in one week, CONL fell 31.8%, demonstrating that losses are compounded rather than simply doubled due to the nature of daily resets [5] Long-term Performance - Since its inception on August 8, 2022, CONL has faced significant decay during sideways markets, declining 89% from its peak in October 2025 [6] - Timing is critical for traders betting on a crypto recovery, as daily rebalancing can exacerbate losses during downturns, creating hidden costs that diminish returns over time [6]

BREAKING:BlackRock just sent 2,268 $BTC ($155.94M) and 45,324 $ETH ($91.77M) to Coinbase https://t.co/3w36llFa36 ...

Earnings Reports - A significant week for earnings with major companies such as Robinhood Markets, Coinbase, Cisco Systems, Applovin, Shopify, Arista Networks, Cloudflare, Spotify, Airbnb, and McDonald's scheduled to report [1] Implied Volatility - Implied volatility tends to be high before earnings reports due to market uncertainty, leading to increased demand for options [2] - After earnings announcements, implied volatility typically decreases to normal levels [3] Expected Price Movements - The expected price range for stocks can be estimated by adding the prices of at-the-money put and call options from the option chain [3] Daily Earnings Expectations - Tuesday: HOOD (11.7%), F (6.5%), KO (2.9%), NET (13.4%), SPOT (10.4%), GILD (5.5%) [4] - Wednesday: CSCO (5.5%), VRT (10.5%), APP (15.5%), SHOP (12.8%), MCD (3.3%) [5] - Thursday: COIN (11.1%), ANET (10.7%), ABNB (8.6%), AEM (6.9%) [5] Trading Strategies - Traders can utilize expected moves to structure trades, with bearish traders selling bear call spreads and bullish traders selling bull put spreads or looking at naked puts [6] - Neutral traders may consider iron condors, ideally keeping short strikes outside the expected range [6] Risk Management - It is advisable to use risk-defined strategies and maintain small position sizes when trading options over earnings [7] - A full loss from a trade should ideally not impact the portfolio by more than 1-3% [7] High Implied Volatility Stocks - Barchart's Stock Screener can identify stocks with high implied volatility, using filters such as total call volume greater than 5,000, market cap greater than 40 billion, and IV Rank greater than 50% [8]

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed an increase in overall market sentiment, remaining in the "Fear" zone with a current reading of 45, up from 34.2 [1][3] - U.S. stocks settled higher, with the Dow Jones index jumping more than 1,200 points, closing at 50,115.67, marking a new record high above the 50,000-point milestone [1][2] Economic Data - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index increased by 0.9 points to a reading of 57.3 in February, surpassing market estimates of 55 [1] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with industrials, energy, and information technology stocks recording the biggest gains, while consumer discretionary and communication services stocks closed lower [2] - The S&P 500 rose by 1.97% to 6,932.30, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 2.18% to 23,031.21 during the session [2]

growing biggerCoinbase 🛡️ (@coinbase):Still growing. https://t.co/8UuDhSLGqV ...

Group 1 - Coinbase created a shared, high-energy karaoke experience for its community to engage with during America's most anticipated football game [1]

Coinbase's Super Bowl adhttps://t.co/hmdnWlOKhR ...

Coinbase's full Super Bowl ad:https://t.co/DHfIrcMbXS ...

Still growing. https://t.co/8UuDhSLGqV ...

Getting bigger. https://t.co/IPOobJ1lT9 ...