Core Insights - Wall Street strategists remain cautious despite a rebound in cryptocurrencies and crypto-linked equities, with Citibank lowering its expectations for Coinbase due to ongoing volatility and regulatory uncertainty [1][5]. Company Overview - Coinbase, founded in 2012, is the largest U.S.-based crypto exchange and previously supported a bill aimed at clarifying crypto regulations [2]. - The company withdrew its support for a new draft version of the bill due to unfavorable provisions [3]. Stock Performance - As of the latest trading session, Coinbase's stock (COIN) was up 11.38% at $162.76, while still being 93% below its all-time high of $444 set in July 2025 [3]. - Year-to-date, COIN has declined by 31.12%, extending a 39.74% drop over the past 12 months [3]. Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - Citigroup analysts have reduced their price target for Coinbase from $505 to $400, citing weaker trading volumes and stalled legislation [5]. - Despite the lowered target, it still suggests a potential doubling from COIN's recent close at $146, with analysts maintaining a "Buy/High Risk" rating [5]. Revenue and Earnings Projections - Ahead of Coinbase's fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results, Citigroup has cut its revenue forecast by about 10% to $1.69 billion, which is approximately 4% below market consensus [7]. - Analysts now expect a GAAP loss of $2.64 per share for the quarter, factoring in a $2.3 billion mark-to-market decline on Coinbase's crypto holdings [7]. Legislative Outlook - The path to recovery for Coinbase may be prolonged, with expectations that Senate negotiations on the market structure bill could extend into 2026, delaying clarity for digital asset companies [6].

Group 1 - The fourth quarter earnings season is ongoing, with significant results from major companies like Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, Qualcomm, and Palantir [1] - As of February 6, 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported their fourth quarter results, with analysts estimating a 13% increase in earnings per share, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth for the index [2][4] - Analysts initially expected an 8.3% increase in earnings per share for the fourth quarter, a decrease from the previous quarter's 13.6% growth rate, but have since raised expectations, particularly for tech companies [4] Group 2 - Major capital expenditures by Big Tech are influencing the AI trade, with ongoing themes from 2025, such as artificial intelligence and economic policies, continuing to impact investor sentiment [5] - Upcoming earnings reports are anticipated from companies including Coca-Cola, Spotify, Robinhood, Lyft, Ford, Rivian, Moderna, Airbnb, and Coinbase [6]

Core Insights - Coinbase's crypto collateral lending product has experienced its highest liquidation scale since launch amid significant declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices this week [1] Summary by Categories Liquidation Scale - Over the past 7 days, cumulative liquidation losses reached approximately $170 million, with a single-day liquidation amount of about $90.7 million on Thursday [1] - Around 2,000 users had their collateral assets liquidated during this period [1] DeFi Platform Involvement - The related loans were executed through the DeFi platform Morpho, which operates under a default over-collateralization model [1] Potential Risks - If the collateral assets were to decline by an additional 50%, the potential liquidation scale could reach up to $600 million [1]

Market Overview - The price of bitcoin experienced a significant drop, nearing $60,000, marking one of its worst single-day declines in the past decade, although it rebounded to around $71,000 later in the week, with overall losses tracking in double digits [2] - Other cryptocurrencies, including altcoins like ether and solana, saw losses of approximately 25%, while Hyperliquid's native token was an exception, gaining about 11% [3] Company Impact - Shares of major crypto-related companies such as Coinbase Global (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and Circle (CRCL) also faced double-digit pullbacks, although they showed signs of recovery [5] - Gemini, a crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, announced plans to close overseas operations and reduce its workforce by 200 as part of a restructuring effort [5] Investor Sentiment - The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains at "extreme fear" levels, indicating heightened anxiety among investors regarding digital assets [6] - Analysts have noted a correlation between bitcoin's recent performance and that of software stocks, contributing to concerns about the future of cryptocurrencies [7] ETF and Investment Trends - Bitcoin ETFs experienced approximately $1.25 billion in net outflows over three days, with $434 million occurring in a single day, although over 90% of assets under management in these funds have not been sold [8] - The average purchase price for bitcoin held in major ETFs is reported to be around $90,000, indicating that ETF holders are facing approximately $15 billion in unrealized losses [9]

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Core Insights - Coinbase customers are facing significant losses due to the decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, with $170 million lost in collateral through liquidations on the DeFi platform Morpho [1][2] - The company's crypto-backed lending product, initially marketed as a wealth growth tool, has seen a surge in loan defaults as Bitcoin and Ethereum prices dropped by 17% and 26% respectively over the past week [2][3] - The total amount of loans originated by Coinbase's crypto-backed lending product since its launch is $1.8 billion [3] User Impact - Approximately 2,000 users lost $90.7 million in collateral on a single day as their loans reached unhealthy levels, leading to liquidation [1][2] - Around 3,300 users have not taken action to prevent liquidation, resulting in the permanent loss of their Bitcoin and Ethereum [3] - If collateral values were to decrease by another 50%, potential losses for Coinbase users could reach $600 million [4] Loan Management - Coinbase claims to notify users frequently about the risk of liquidation, with alerts sent as often as every 30 minutes [4] - The company emphasizes that crypto-backed loans are faster, cheaper, and more efficient compared to traditional loans, while also offering better rates [4] - All loans on Morpho are over-collateralized by default, and the exchange is exploring additional protective measures for users [5] Revenue Model - Coinbase does not earn fees from liquidations but generates revenue as a technology provider by taking a share of performance fees earned by risk managers [6]

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Core Insights - The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized after a significant drop, impacting companies like Strategy, BitMine, and Coinbase positively [1][3] Group 1: Strategy (MSTR) - Strategy's stock price increased by 22% to $131, despite holding 713,502 BTC acquired at an average price of $76,047, putting the company underwater on its BTC holdings [2][4] - MSTR reported a substantial Q4 loss of $12.4 billion, with co-founder Michael Saylor emphasizing the company's commitment to Bitcoin and digital credit [4] - Analysts have reduced their price forecasts for MSTR significantly, with Canacord Genuity lowering it by 60% to $185 and BTIG cutting it to $250, while maintaining buy ratings due to potential upside [5] Group 2: BitMine (BMNR) - BitMine's share price rose by 15% to approximately $20, with a treasury of 4,285,125 ETH valued at about $8.7 billion, despite an unrealized loss of $7.5 billion [6] - The company has staked $6.7 billion worth of ETH and anticipates earning over $1 million per day in rewards once fully staked [6] Group 3: Coinbase - Coinbase's stock price increased by 10% to $161, benefiting from market volatility that drives higher trading volumes, which is favorable for its financial performance [7]

Noted tech investor Cathie Wood's Ark Invest dumped shares in Coinbase on Thursday amid Bitcoin's slide to nearly $60,000. https://t.co/ZNdKqoUaom ...

AI. RWAs. Agent-to-agent commerce.It's all converging on x402, Coinbase's protocol for machine-native payments.Now agents can pay each other in stablecoins at the HTTP layer, and they can do it in real time on Sei.@jayendra_jog breaks it down with @FintechTvGlobal ↓ https://t.co/q9XR6nm5uN ...