Core Viewpoint - Coinbase Global's CEO Brian Armstrong expressed that the company "unfortunately can't support" the latest draft of the U.S. Senate's crypto market structure bill [4] Group 1 - The updated draft of the crypto market structure bill was released by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott earlier in the week [4]

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong 表示，在审阅参议院银行委员会发表的加密货币市场结构法 案草案后，Coinbase 无法支持该版本立法。其指出，草案存在多项问题，包括事实上限制代币化股票、 对 DeFi 设定禁止性条款并扩大政府对个人金融记录的访问权限、削弱 CFTC 的监管权力并使其从属于 U.S. SEC，以及通过修正条款限制稳定币收益、赋予银行压制竞争的空间。 ...

Core Insights - The financial industry is transitioning from traditional custody, execution, and settlement models to custody-native settlement, with institutions now focusing on which architectural model best fits their operational needs [1][32] Market Developments - Tokenized US Treasuries reached $9.11 billion in November 2025, a significant increase from approximately $1 billion in January 2024, with BlackRock's BUIDL fund holding $2.5 billion across eight blockchains [2][21] - Deutsche Börse Group launched AnchorNote, a custody-native pledging solution, allowing institutional clients to trade across exchanges while keeping assets in regulated custody, marking a significant shift in the market [3][31] - Major acquisitions in the market include Coinbase's acquisition of Deribit for $2.9 billion and Ripple's acquisition of Hidden Road for $1.25 billion, indicating a trend towards vertical integration in the crypto space [4][27] Regulatory Changes - The implementation of MiCA in December 2024 established a comprehensive regulatory framework in Europe, requiring asset segregation and creating a clearer pathway for institutional participation [5][23] - In the US, the SEC rescinded SAB 121 in January 2025, allowing national banks to provide crypto custody without prior approval, further facilitating institutional engagement [5][25] Infrastructure and Technology - Off-exchange settlement infrastructure is emerging to allow assets to remain in custody while facilitating trading across multiple venues, addressing the operational challenges of pre-funding [6][7] - Three primary models for custody-native settlement have emerged: Copper ClearLoop, Fireblocks Off Exchange, and BitGo Go Network, each with distinct advantages and trade-offs [8][32] - Deutsche Börse's AnchorNote utilizes neutral middleware to connect custodians and exchanges, allowing for efficient trading without the need for proprietary custody solutions [15][32] Market Trends and Projections - The institutional crypto custody market is projected to grow from $3.2 billion in 2024 to $27.8 billion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.7% [28] - The broader real-world asset (RWA) market, including tokenized Treasuries, is expected to expand significantly, with projections of reaching $2 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030 [22]

Core Insights - Binance's spot trading dominance has significantly declined to 25% in December, marking its lowest level since January 2021, as competitors like Bybit, HTX, and Gate.io capture market share [1][2] - The decline in Binance's market share reflects a structural shift in the crypto trading landscape, with the overall market valued at $3.2 trillion [2][4] Spot Trading - Binance's share of spot crypto trades peaked at nearly 60% in 2023 after the FTX collapse but fell to 25% in December, down from 28.5% in November [2][10] - Spot trading typically constitutes about 25% of all crypto transactions, with the majority occurring in derivatives [3] Derivatives Trading - Binance's derivatives market share has decreased from a peak of around 70% to approximately 35% [4] - The shift in trading volume is not benefiting U.S. exchanges like Coinbase, which have seen only modest gains [5] Competitive Landscape - Offshore exchanges are gaining volume, while on-chain platforms like Hyperliquid are changing the competitive dynamics by allowing traders to access perpetual futures without centralized custody [6][9] - The migration of traders to platforms offering better token listings and higher leverage limits poses a threat to Binance's business model [7][10] Leadership and Regulatory Developments - Binance has appointed co-founder Yi He as co-CEO, marking a significant leadership change [11] - The company has secured licenses from Abu Dhabi's financial regulator, indicating a strategy to expand into regulated markets [11]

Group 1 - Bitcoin has risen over 4% in the past 24 hours, surpassing $97,000, a level not seen since mid-November, following a stable inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1] - Crypto-linked stocks, such as Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR), have increased by almost 3% and more than 6% respectively, indicating a positive market sentiment [2] - The potential for lower interest rates this year, as suggested by the inflation report, is viewed as favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin, which may lead to further price increases [4] Group 2 - The possibility of passing the Clarity Act, which would create a regulatory framework for digital assets, is contributing to positive sentiment among crypto investors, although its advancement is uncertain due to postponed Senate discussions [5][6] - Smaller stocks, such as High Roller Technologies (ROLR), are experiencing significant gains, attributed to renewed optimism in the crypto market and partnerships with crypto platforms like Crypto.com [7] - Experts believe that stable inflation and ongoing regulatory developments are supporting the rise in digital asset prices [8]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming legislative vote is critical for the crypto industry, with only a 25% chance of bipartisan support to advance the bill, which could determine the regulatory landscape for crypto through 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Scenarios - Scenario 1: Bipartisan Win (25% probability) - Requires all Republicans and two to four Democrats to support the bill, potentially advancing it to the Senate floor with momentum, similar to the stablecoin bill that received 68 votes [3]. - Scenario 2: Partisan Advance (50% probability) - Republicans may push the bill through committee alone, but it is likely to fail on the Senate floor without Democrat support, extending the timeline for regulatory clarity [4]. - Scenario 3: Failed Markup (25% probability) - The bill may not escape committee, delaying any legislation until after the 2026 midterms, pushing it into 2027 or beyond [4]. Group 2: Current Industry Challenges - The debate has shifted from defining securities versus commodities to a more complex "Christmas tree bill" with various amendments being proposed [5]. - Key sticking points include the regulation of DeFi, particularly the compliance requirements for non-custodial wallet developers, which are viewed as fundamentally unworkable [6]. - The potential for a bad bill could be more detrimental than no bill at all, as the industry is already achieving some regulatory relief under new SEC and CFTC leadership [6]. Group 3: Implications for Major Players - Coinbase and Robinhood both require regulatory clarity to enhance institutional adoption, but poorly defined regulations could jeopardize their crypto operations [8]. - Coinbase's CEO is actively lobbying for the bill, emphasizing the exchange's significant user base of over 100 million, while Robinhood is expanding its offerings to include crypto and prediction markets [7]. Group 4: Upcoming Legislative Actions - The text of the bill and proposed amendments will be made public shortly, with senators required to submit amendment proposals by a specific deadline [10]. - The Thursday hearing will reveal which amendments receive votes and whether any Democrats will cross party lines to support the bill [10]. Group 5: Broader Regulatory Concerns - The risk of codifying restrictive rules into federal law could have long-term implications, especially if future administrations are hostile to the crypto industry [6]. - Specific regulatory questions remain, such as whether DeFi developers will need to register with the SEC and comply with KYC/AML requirements, and how stablecoin issuers can manage interest earned on reserves [9].

Core Insights - Circle Internet Group (CRCL) and Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) serve distinct but complementary roles in the crypto-financial infrastructure, with Circle focusing on blockchain payments and stablecoin issuance, while Coinbase operates the largest U.S. crypto exchange [1][2] Group 1: Circle Internet Group (CRCL) - Circle has established itself as a key player in crypto infrastructure, primarily through its USD Coin (USDC), which is one of the largest regulated stablecoin networks globally [3] - As of September 30, 2025, USDC circulation reached $73.7 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, and increasing market share to 29%, with USDC accounting for nearly 40% of stablecoin transactions [4][7] - Circle's revenue and reserve income grew by 66%, with adjusted EBITDA rising 78% and margins expanding to 57%, driven by increased use of its Circle Payments Network (CPN) and Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) [4][7] - The company is expanding its infrastructure through Arc, a Layer-1 blockchain, which aims to serve as an "economic OS for the Internet," although this introduces potential execution and regulatory risks [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRCL's 2026 revenues indicates an 18.6% increase, with earnings expected at 90 cents per share, a significant turnaround from a loss of 87 cents per share [6] Group 2: Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) - Coinbase remains highly exposed to the volatility of digital asset markets, with revenues closely tied to crypto prices and trading volumes, making it vulnerable during market downturns [9] - Rising operational costs are a concern for Coinbase, with expenses increasing due to headcount expansion and higher USDC reward payouts, which pressure margins [9][10] - Regulatory and competitive pressures are impacting Coinbase's outlook, with ongoing uncertainty in various jurisdictions and rising competition from decentralized platforms [10] - Despite these challenges, Coinbase is positioning itself as an "Everything Exchange," covering nearly 90% of the crypto market cap, with significant growth in U.S. derivatives and institutional revenue [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN's 2026 earnings is pegged at $5.82 per share, reflecting a 26.7% year-over-year decline, raising concerns about earnings volatility [12] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Over the past month, CRCL outperformed COIN, rising 10.6% compared to COIN's 0.9% increase, attributed to Circle's shift towards platform-driven revenues [14] - Both companies are currently considered overvalued, with CRCL trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 6.02X, lower than COIN's 8.19X, indicating relatively lower valuation risk for Circle [15] - From a performance perspective, Circle is viewed as the stronger crypto-infrastructure play, with a more stable revenue mix and lower earnings volatility compared to Coinbase [18]

随着参议院委员会审议两党共同提出的《CLARITY法案》，Coinbase（COIN）和其他美国数字资产公 司可能获得更明确的监管框架。该法案划分了SEC/CFTC的监管职责，打击非法金融，并保留了自我托 管和开发者保护条款。 随着参议院委员会审议两党共同提出的《CLARITY法案》，Coinbase（COIN）和其他美国数字资产公 司可能获得更明确的监管框架。该法案划分了SEC/CFTC的监管职责，打击非法金融，并保留了自我托 管和开发者保护条款。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase Global Inc. shares are currently trading at $258.65, reflecting a 2.36% increase in the current session, with a 5.92% increase over the past month, but an 8.16% decline over the past year, raising questions about potential undervaluation despite current performance [1]. Past Year's Performance - The stock performance of Coinbase Global shows fluctuations, with a notable decline of 8.16% over the past year, indicating potential challenges faced by the company [1][3]. P/E Ratio Analysis - The P/E ratio is a critical metric for evaluating Coinbase Global's market performance, comparing the current share price to the company's earnings per share (EPS) [5]. - Coinbase Global has a lower P/E ratio compared to the Capital Markets industry's aggregate P/E of 26.17, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued despite the possibility of underperformance relative to peers [6]. - A low P/E ratio can indicate undervaluation but may also reflect weak growth prospects or financial instability, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive analysis of financial health [8].

Group 1 - Cryptocurrency-related stocks experienced gains, with Strategy (MSTR.US) rising over 9%, Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US) up over 7%, Strive (ASST.US) increasing over 4%, and Coinbase (COIN.US) climbing over 2% [1] - Bitcoin reached a two-month high, rising 2.4% to $96,348, marking the highest intraday level since November 16 [1] - Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also saw a significant increase, rising over 5% [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin ended 2025 on a low note, with an annual decline of over 6% and a narrow trading range, but showed signs of potential breakout in January [1] - Traders believe Bitcoin may gain an advantage in asset class competition, with investors likely to allocate more funds to Bitcoin based on the logic of "chasing gold trends" as other risk assets perform strongly [1]