Core Insights - Carlisle (CSL) reported quarterly earnings of $5.61 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.47 per share, but down from $5.78 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of +2.56% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.35 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.01% and showing a slight increase from $1.33 billion year-over-year [2] - Carlisle's stock has underperformed, losing about 7.7% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 17.2% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $4.43 on revenues of $1.14 billion, while for the current fiscal year, the estimate is $19.77 on revenues of $5.02 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Carlisle was unfavorable prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Diversified Operations industry, to which Carlisle belongs, is currently in the top 30% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 revenues reached $1.3 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year, slightly below previous expectations [6][19] - Adjusted EPS for Q3 was $5.61, down 3% compared to the previous year [20] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $349 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.9%, a decrease of 170 basis points from the prior year [20][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - CCM reported Q3 revenue of $1 billion, essentially flat year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $303 million, down 8% compared to the prior year [21] - CWT reported Q3 revenue of $346 million, up 3% year-over-year, but organic revenue declined 8% due to lower volumes [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ongoing challenges in both residential and non-residential new construction are attributed to higher interest rates and economic uncertainty [5][9] - Housing prices have risen over 45% since 2020, with the median home price exceeding $430,000, creating affordability issues [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its Vision 2030 strategy, emphasizing product innovation, operational excellence, and strategic M&A to enhance capabilities [10][18] - Recent acquisitions are expected to create value by expanding capabilities and addressable markets, with a goal of two to three acquisitions each year [14][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to create shareholder value despite near-term challenges, citing strong demand for reroofing and ongoing innovation [9][10] - The company revised its full-year 2025 guidance to flat revenue, anticipating continued macroeconomic and distribution channel uncertainties [17][24] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 800,000 shares for $300 million and raised its dividend by 10%, marking the 49th consecutive annual increase [10][16] - The company expects to generate approximately $1 billion of cash flow from operating activities this year, supporting ongoing investments and capital returns [17][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of destocking in Q3 and outlook for Q4 - Management noted normal seasonal patterns for destocking, with some additional effects from M&A integration, but no major impact expected [33][35] Question: Leveraging the Carlisle experience in a competitive environment - Management highlighted the importance of efficient labor use and enhanced customer service to gain market share amid declining new construction [40][41] Question: Pricing outlook and CapEx investments - Pricing for CCM is expected to remain flat, while CapEx guidance was slightly reduced due to ambitious project timelines [47][48] Question: Price versus volume dynamics in CCM - Pricing was flat in the CCM segment, with volume also flat, and raw material costs negatively impacting results [56][58] Question: Outlook for EBITDA margins in Q4 - Expected adjusted EBITDA margin for CCM in Q4 is around 26%, with CWT margins expected to decline due to lower organic volumes [63][64] Question: Market share outlook amid distribution disruptions - Management indicated no long-term changes in market share, with temporary effects due to distributor channel issues expected to resolve [66][67] Question: Direct sales model positioning - The company has lagged competitors in direct sales but is adapting to market changes and enhancing direct engagement with end users [73][75] Question: Pricing expectations for CWT amid raw material pressures - Pricing for CWT is expected to decline slightly, with mixed trends in raw material costs impacting pricing strategies [89]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 revenues reached $1.3 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year, slightly below previous expectations [6][19] - Adjusted EPS for Q3 was $5.61, down 3% compared to the previous year [20] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $349 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.9%, a decrease of 170 basis points from the prior year [20][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - CCM reported Q3 revenue of $1 billion, essentially flat year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $303 million and a margin of 30.2%, down 260 basis points [21][22] - CWT reported Q3 revenue of $346 million, up 3% year-over-year, but organic revenue declined 8% due to lower volumes [22][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ongoing challenges in new construction are attributed to higher interest rates, affordability issues, and economic uncertainty [5][9] - Housing prices have risen over 45% since 2020, with the median home price exceeding $430,000, creating significant affordability challenges [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its Vision 2030 strategy, emphasizing product innovation, operational excellence, and strategic M&A to enhance capabilities and expand markets [10][18] - Recent acquisitions are expected to create value and expand market share, with a goal of two to three acquisitions annually [14][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to create shareholder value despite near-term challenges, citing strong demand for reroofing and ongoing innovation [10][17] - The company revised its full-year 2025 guidance to flat revenue, anticipating continued pressures from macroeconomic factors [17][24] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 800,000 shares for $300 million and raised its dividend by 10%, marking the 49th consecutive annual increase [10][16] - The company expects to generate approximately $1 billion in cash flow from operating activities this year, supporting ongoing investments and capital returns [17][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of destocking in Q3 and outlook for Q4 - Management noted normal seasonal patterns for destocking, with some additional effects from distributor adjustments due to M&A activities [34][35] Question: Leveraging the Carlisle experience in a competitive environment - The company is enhancing its customer service capabilities to help contractors operate more efficiently, which is crucial in a labor-constrained market [40][42] Question: Willingness to invest in the business amid current cash flows - Management highlighted ongoing investments in R&D and customer insights to ensure strong product development pipelines [44][46] Question: Pricing outlook in CCM and CWT segments - Pricing in CCM is expected to remain flat, while CWT may see a slight decline due to market pressures [62][63] Question: Nature of distribution disruption and resolution - Management indicated that the disruption was due to various factors related to integration and management changes, but expects resolution in 2026 [88][89]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 revenues reached $1.3 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year, slightly below previous expectations [5][18] - Adjusted EPS for Q3 was $5.61, down 3% compared to the previous year [18] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $349 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.9%, a decrease of 170 basis points from the prior year [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - CCM reported Q3 revenue of $1 billion, essentially flat year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $303 million, down 8% compared to the prior year [19][20] - CWT reported Q3 revenue of $346 million, up 3% year-over-year, but organic revenue declined 8% due to lower volumes [21][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ongoing challenges in the new construction market are attributed to higher interest rates, affordability issues, and economic uncertainty [4][6] - Housing prices have risen over 45% since 2020, with the median home price exceeding $430,000, creating significant affordability challenges [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its Vision 2030 strategy, emphasizing product innovation, operational excellence, and strategic M&A to enhance capabilities and expand market reach [9][17] - Recent acquisitions are expected to create value and expand addressable markets, with a goal of two to three acquisitions annually [12][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to create shareholder value despite near-term challenges, citing strong demand for reroofing and ongoing innovation [8][9] - The full-year 2025 guidance has been revised to flat revenue with adjusted EBITDA margins expected to decline by approximately 250 basis points [16][24] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 800,000 shares for $300 million and raised its dividend by 10%, marking the 49th consecutive annual increase [9][15] - The company generated free cash flow of $620 million in the first nine months of 2025, on track to exceed its free cash flow margin target of 15% for the full year [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of destocking in Q3 and outlook for Q4 - Management indicated that destocking is expected as part of normal seasonal patterns, with no major impact anticipated [33][34] Question: Leveraging the Carlisle experience in a competitive environment - The company is enhancing its customer service capabilities to help contractors operate more efficiently, which is expected to provide a competitive advantage [40][42] Question: Outlook for EBITDA margins in Q4 by segment - CCM's adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be around 26% in Q4, while CWT's margins are anticipated to decline by 250 to 300 basis points compared to the prior year [55] Question: Pricing outlook for CWT and raw material trends - Pricing for CWT is expected to decline slightly, with mixed trends in raw material prices, particularly MDI and polyol [69]

Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call October 29, 2025 Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements generally use words such as "expect," "foresee," "anticipate," "believe," "project," "should," "estimate," "will," "plans," "intends," "forecast," and similar expressions, and reflect our expectations concerning the future. Such statements are made ...

Revenue and Earnings - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $1.3 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase[5] - Adjusted EPS for Q3 2025 was $5.61, down 2.9% from $5.78 in Q3 2024[6] - Revenues for Q3 2025 reached $1,346.9 million, a slight increase of 1.0% compared to $1,333.6 million in Q3 2024[16] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $214.2 million, a decrease of 12.3% compared to $244.3 million in Q3 2024[16] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2025 were $5.02, down from $5.31 in Q3 2024, reflecting a decline of 5.5%[16] - Adjusted net income for Q3 2025 was $241.2 million, compared to $268.9 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a decrease of 10.3%[33] - Adjusted net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, is $675.9 million, with an adjusted EPS of $15.47[35] - Net income (GAAP) for the same period is $613.3 million, resulting in a diluted EPS of $14.03[35] - Income from continuing operations (GAAP) is $609.1 million, with a diluted EPS of $13.94[35] Operating Performance - Operating margin for Q3 2025 was 21.8%, a decrease of 190 basis points compared to 23.7% in Q3 2024[5] - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $293.9 million, down 7.1% from $316.4 million in Q3 2024[16] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $348.7 million, compared to $367.9 million in Q3 2024, representing a decrease of 5.5%[29] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 2025 was 25.9%, down 170 basis points from 27.6% in Q3 2024[5] - EBIT for Q3 2025 was $292.3 million, down from $317.5 million in Q3 2024, a decline of 7.5%[29] Cash Flow and Debt - The company expects to generate approximately $1.0 billion in cash from operating activities for the year[4] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 2025 were $1,105.0 million, an increase from $753.5 million at the end of 2024[20] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $715.8 million, up from $659.7 million in the same period of 2024[18] - Free cash flow from continuing operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $620.3 million, compared to $597.2 million in 2024[26] - Long-term debt increased to $2,883.3 million as of September 30, 2025, from $1,890.6 million at the end of 2024[20] Acquisitions and Synergies - Annualized savings of $12 million are anticipated from synergies related to the Plasti-Fab and ThermaFoam acquisitions[4] - The impact of acquisition-related amortization on adjusted net income for Q3 2025 was $28.7 million[33] - Acquisition-related amortization for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, is $85.6 million, impacting adjusted EPS by $1.50[35] - The company reported a gain from acquisitions of $9.9 million, which positively impacted adjusted EPS by $0.17[35] Research and Development - Research and development expenses for Q3 2025 were $12.4 million, up from $8.1 million in Q3 2024, indicating a focus on innovation[16] Shareholder Returns - Share repurchase target increased to $1.3 billion for the full year of 2025[5] - The company declared and paid dividends of $1.10 per share in Q3 2025, compared to $1.00 per share in Q3 2024[16] Other Financial Metrics - Total non-comparable items for Q3 2025 amounted to $6.6 million, compared to $5.8 million in Q3 2024[29] - Interest expense for Q3 2025 was $21.3 million, an increase from $18.6 million in Q3 2024[29] - The company experienced a decrease in income from discontinued operations, which was $4.2 million, affecting diluted EPS by $0.09[35] - Total adjustments to net income amount to $66.8 million, contributing an additional $1.53 to adjusted EPS[35] - Legal settlements contributed $1.6 million to net income, with a corresponding impact of $0.03 on adjusted EPS[35] - Restructuring costs added $4.4 million to net income, impacting adjusted EPS by $0.08[35]

Core Insights - Carlisle Companies Incorporated (NYSE: CSL) is recognized as a highly profitable manufacturing stock with strong analyst ratings despite recent target price adjustments [1][2]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Goldman Sachs maintained a "Buy" rating on CSL but reduced the 12-month price target from US $444 to US $385, indicating an approximate 18.6% upside potential from the then-current price [1]. - Oppenheimer & Co. also kept its "Outperform" rating while lowering its target from US $440 to US $415, suggesting a potential upside of about 25.9% [1]. - Vertical Research initiated coverage with a "Hold" rating and a price target of $356 [3]. Earnings Expectations - CSL is expected to report FQ3 2025 earnings on October 29, with analysts forecasting an EPS of $5.36 on revenue of $1.32 billion [3]. - There has been a trend of seven analysts reducing their EPS estimates over the past 90 days, indicating some caution regarding the company's near-term performance [3]. Company Overview - Carlisle Companies is a diversified manufacturing company that specializes in building-envelope and weather-proofing materials, operating through segments such as Construction Materials and Weatherproofing Technologies [4].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term dividend growth investing as a successful strategy compared to other trading methods [1] - The author has a beneficial long position in several companies, indicating a positive outlook on their performance [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific investment recommendations or advice, highlighting the need for individual assessment of investment suitability [2] - It notes that past performance is not indicative of future results, reinforcing the importance of careful analysis [2]

Group 1 - The investing community on Seeking Alpha is diverse, with various backgrounds represented among readers [1] - The author has been investing since September 2017 and has a focus on dividend investing since 2009 [2] - The blog "Kody's Dividends" documents the journey towards financial independence through dividend growth investing [2] Group 2 - The author expresses a beneficial long position in shares of BAM, CSL, MA, and V through stock ownership or derivatives [2] - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and is not compensated beyond contributions to Seeking Alpha [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in Carlisle's earnings due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Carlisle is expected to report quarterly earnings of $5.47 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 5.4% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $1.33 billion, indicating no change from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 6.78% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a strong Zacks Rank [10]. - Carlisle currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions for an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Carlisle was expected to earn $6.67 per share but only achieved $6.27, resulting in a surprise of -6.00% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [14]. Conclusion - While Carlisle does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider other factors before making investment decisions [17].