瑞银将Doordash的目标价从316美元下调至241美元，维持"中性"评级。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has lowered the target price for DoorDash from $325 to $300 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] Group 1 - The target price adjustment reflects a strategic reassessment of DoorDash's market position and growth potential [1] - The decision to maintain the "Overweight" rating indicates continued confidence in DoorDash's long-term prospects despite the price reduction [1]

Core Insights - DoorDash has been compared to Meituan, with both companies starting in similar ways but facing different market dynamics and competition levels [1][21] - Despite lower market share and performance metrics compared to Meituan, DoorDash's stock price has surged significantly, indicating a different investor perception and market environment [1][21] - The contrasting business models of DoorDash and Meituan are largely influenced by their respective market conditions and consumer behaviors [21][42] Group 1: Market Position and Performance - In Q1 2024, Meituan's total order volume was approximately seven times that of DoorDash, with monthly active users around eleven times higher [1] - DoorDash's annual gross transaction value (GTV) is less than half of Meituan's, highlighting a significant gap in scale [1] - DoorDash's market capitalization once reached 1.5 times that of Meituan, despite its lower operational metrics [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The North American market is characterized by "dislocated monopoly," while the domestic market experiences homogeneous competition [2][21] - DoorDash has successfully targeted suburban markets, where demand for delivery services is higher due to fewer local dining options [9][12] - The average order value in suburban areas is 30% higher than in urban centers, contributing to DoorDash's growth in these regions [11] Group 3: Business Model and Strategy - DoorDash employs a unique workforce strategy, utilizing part-time workers primarily composed of stay-at-home parents, which has led to a large delivery team [3][12] - The average delivery time for DoorDash is 42 minutes, which is longer than competitors, yet it continues to capture a significant market share [7][12] - The introduction of DashPass membership has generated 12% of DoorDash's revenue, showcasing its ability to monetize its platform effectively [16] Group 4: Cost Structure and Profitability - DoorDash's average profit per $10 order is $3.2, indicating a high-margin business model [18] - In contrast, Meituan reported a loss of approximately 0.3 yuan per order due to high delivery costs [34] - The delivery cost structure in the U.S. allows consumers to bear a significant portion of the delivery fees, unlike in China where consumers are less willing to pay for delivery [38][39] Group 5: Regulatory and Social Factors - The independent contractor model in the U.S. allows DoorDash to minimize labor costs, while Meituan's model involves more employee responsibilities and benefits [24][33] - The cultural preference for flexible work in the U.S. supports DoorDash's operational model, contrasting with the more rigid employment structures in China [30][41] - Regulatory environments in both countries shape the operational strategies of DoorDash and Meituan, influencing their respective market performances [24][41]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the technology sector being the main focus of sell-offs due to concerns over high valuations and economic outlook [2][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 398.7 points to close at 46,912.3, a decrease of 0.84%; the S&P 500 dropped by 75.97 points to 6,720.32, down 1.12%; and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 445.81 points to 23,053.99, a decline of 1.90% [2] Technology Sector Performance - Major technology stocks faced declines, with Microsoft down 1.98%, Amazon down 2.86%, Tesla down 3.50%, and Nvidia down 3.65%. Only Google saw a slight increase of 0.15% [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 2.4%, indicating a cooling enthusiasm for AI-driven growth stocks [2] Employment and Economic Data - A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed that US companies announced layoffs of 153,000 in October, a month-on-month increase of 183.1%, marking the highest October layoffs since 2003. Year-to-date layoffs reached 1.1 million, a 65% increase year-on-year [3] - The report attributes layoffs to the integration of AI, slowing consumer demand, and rising costs, suggesting a challenging labor market in Q4 [3] - Revelio Labs reported a net decrease of 9,100 jobs in October, primarily in government sectors, as investors increasingly rely on private data due to delays in official statistics [4] Individual Stock Movements - DoorDash's stock plummeted by 17.5% after its Q3 profits fell short of Wall Street expectations, significantly impacting the non-essential consumer sector [4] - Snap's stock rose by 9.7% after reporting revenue that exceeded expectations and announcing a partnership with Perplexity AI [4] Commodity Market - International oil prices saw a decline, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $59.43 per barrel, down 0.29%, and Brent crude at $63.38 per barrel, down 0.22% [4] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.05%, closing at $3,991.0 per ounce [4]

Core Insights - DoorDash announced plans to increase spending on new initiatives and platform development in 2026 by several hundred million dollars compared to the previous year [1] Group 1 - The company is focusing on expanding its investments in new initiatives and platform development [1]

Core Insights - DoorDash (DASH) shares experienced a significant decline after the company reported earnings that fell short of profit estimates and provided a disappointing outlook for the future [1] Company Summary - The food delivery firm missed profit estimates, indicating potential challenges in maintaining profitability [1] - The outlook provided by DoorDash was weak, suggesting that the company may face difficulties in achieving growth in the near term [1]

Group 1: DoorDash Performance - DoorDash shares fell over 17% after missing third-quarter profit estimates and providing a lower-than-expected guidance for adjusted EBITDA in the current quarter [3][7] - The company warned of rising costs due to investments in business expansion and new initiatives, including autonomous delivery [3][7] Group 2: Broader Market Trends - Major U.S. equity indexes declined, with tech stocks leading the drop, as job cuts in October reached the highest level since 2003 [2] - The Dow dropped 0.8%, the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 1.9% [2] Group 3: Other Company Performances - Robinhood Markets saw its stock fall nearly 11% despite exceeding sales and profit forecasts, primarily due to higher-than-expected operating expenses and disappointing cryptocurrency revenue [4] - Paycom Software reported lower-than-expected quarterly earnings, leading to a nearly 11% drop in its shares, citing increased spending on technology investments [5] - Tapestry shares fell 9.6% despite surpassing sales and profit forecasts, with disappointing guidance attributed to tariff-related headwinds [6][8] - Datadog's shares surged about 23% after posting better-than-expected quarterly earnings and benefiting from strong demand from AI customers [9] - Texas Pacific Land's shares increased by 10% after reporting record quarterly revenue, despite sales and profit falling short of expectations [10] - Air Products and Chemicals gained 8.9% after edging out earnings per share estimates while announcing a strategic revamp focused on cost-cutting and core industrial gases [11]

Core Insights - Futures for major stock indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, showed modest gains in premarket trading, with the Dow up 0.1% and S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both gaining 0.2% [1] Company Performance - DoorDash experienced a significant decline in stock price following a quarterly earnings miss, while the company is ramping up investments [4] - AppLovin's stock rose due to better-than-expected earnings and guidance, indicating strong performance [4] - Robinhood reported a doubling of revenue and more than tripled earnings, with a year-to-date increase of 282% [4] Market Movements - Key earnings reports from Robinhood, AppLovin, and ARM were highlighted as leading movers in the market [2] - Tesla shareholders are set to vote on Elon Musk's $1 trillion pay deal, which is generating significant attention [1][2]

Financial Performance - Total Orders increased to 776 million in Q3 2025, representing a 21% year-over-year growth compared to Q3 2024[143] - Marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV) rose to $25.0 billion in Q3 2025, a 25% increase year-over-year driven by growth in Total Orders[144] - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached $3.446 billion, reflecting a 27% year-over-year growth from $2.706 billion in Q3 2024[142] - Net income attributable to DoorDash, Inc. common stockholders was $244 million in Q3 2025, compared to $162 million in Q3 2024[154] - Revenue for Q3 2025 increased by $740 million, or 27%, to $3,446 million, driven by a 25% increase in Marketplace GOV[158] - Revenue for the first nine months of 2025 rose by $1.9 billion, or 24%, to $9,762 million, primarily due to a 23% increase in Marketplace GOV[159] Profitability Metrics - Net Revenue Margin improved to 13.8% in Q3 2025, up from 13.5% in Q3 2024, attributed to increased advertising revenue and reduced costs[145] - Contribution Profit for Q3 2025 was $1.268 billion, compared to $930 million in Q3 2024, driven by revenue growth[149] - Adjusted EBITDA increased to $754 million in Q3 2025 from $533 million in Q3 2024, reflecting improved operating performance[151] - Contribution Profit for Q3 2024 was $930 million, increasing to $1,268 million in Q3 2025, with a contribution margin of 34.4% and 36.8% respectively[207] - Adjusted Gross Profit for Q3 2024 was $1,377 million, growing to $1,810 million in Q3 2025, with adjusted gross margins of 50.9% and 52.5%[210] Expenses - Sales and marketing expenses increased to $576 million in Q3 2025, up from $483 million in Q3 2024[154] - Cost of revenue, exclusive of depreciation and amortization, increased by $313 million, or 23%, in Q3 2025, reaching $1,687 million[162] - Research and development expenses rose by $66 million, or 23%, in Q3 2025, totaling $355 million[169] - General and administrative expenses increased by $85 million, or 27%, in Q3 2025, reaching $400 million[172] - Adjusted sales and marketing expense for Q3 2025 was $542 million, up from $447 million in Q3 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of about 21%[201] - Adjusted research and development expense for Q3 2025 was $215 million, compared to $156 million in Q3 2024, indicating a year-over-year increase of approximately 38%[203] - Adjusted general and administrative expense for Q3 2025 was $299 million, an increase from $241 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 24%[205] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Free Cash Flow for Q3 2025 was $723 million, up from $444 million in Q3 2024, driven by increased cash from operating activities[152] - Cash provided by operating activities for the first nine months of 2025 was $2.0 billion, compared to $1.6 billion for the same period in 2024, reflecting a significant increase[224][226] - The company reported a net cash increase of $3.2 billion for the first nine months of 2025, up from $1.1 billion in the same period of 2024[223] - Cash used in investing activities was $1.3 billion for the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to cash paid for acquisitions of $1.2 billion and purchases of marketable securities of $1.1 billion[227] - As of September 30, 2025, the company had $5.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, ensuring liquidity for operations[218] Acquisitions and Investments - The acquisition of Deliveroo was completed on October 2, 2025, expanding the Marketplaces to over 40 countries[138] - The company completed the acquisition of Deliveroo for approximately £2.8 billion, impacting future capital requirements and cash flows[222] - The Deal-Contingent Forward related to the Deliveroo acquisition had a notional amount of approximately £2.8 billion, with an unrealized loss of $12 million recognized during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[241] Taxation - The provision for income taxes for Q3 2025 was primarily due to state and foreign income tax expenses, while the benefit from income taxes in Q3 2024 was driven by losses in non-U.S. jurisdictions[188] - The benefit from income taxes for the first nine months of 2025 included a one-time tax benefit from the release of a portion of the U.S. valuation allowance related to acquisitions, offset by state and foreign income tax expenses[189] - The effective tax rate is subject to significant variation due to factors such as pre-tax income, changes in stock price, and acquisitions, impacting the overall tax expense recognized[186] - The company maintains a valuation allowance for net deferred tax assets in the U.S. and Finland until it is more likely than not that the benefits will be realized[187] Other Financial Information - Interest income, net increased by $17 million, or 31%, in Q3 2025, totaling $71 million[180] - Other expense, net increased by $75 million in Q3 2025, primarily due to a change in fair value of the Deal-Contingent Forward[183] - Depreciation and amortization expenses increased by $31 million, or 22%, in Q3 2025, totaling $169 million[175] - A share repurchase program was authorized in February 2025 for up to $5.0 billion, with $5.0 billion remaining available as of September 30, 2025[221] - The company intends to use the net proceeds from the recent issuance of $2.75 billion in convertible senior notes for general corporate purposes[219] - Foreign currency gains and losses were immaterial for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, indicating limited impact from exchange rate fluctuations[240] - The company has a non-marketable equity investment carrying value of $47 million as of September 30, 2025, which is subject to impairment risks[238] - A hypothetical 100 basis point increase in interest rates would not materially affect the company's financial statements based on the investment portfolio balance as of September 30, 2025[236] - The U.S. enacted tax reform legislation allowing for immediate expensing of domestic R&D expenses, which has no material impact on the company's financial statements[191]

Key Takeaways DoorDash's Q3 earnings of $0.55 missed estimates but rose from $0.38 a year earlier. Revenue climbed 27.3% year over year to $3.45B, beating the consensus mark by 2.41%. Q3 orders rose 21% and adjusted EBITDA jumped 41.5% as margins expanded. DoorDash (DASH) reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of 55 cents per share compared with the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 38 cents per share. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 19.12%.Revenues increased 27.3% year over year to $3.45 billi ...