Financial Performance - Dollar Tree reported fourth quarter net sales of $5.0 billion, a 0.7% increase compared to the same period in fiscal 2023[11]. - Same-store net sales growth for Dollar Tree was 2.0%, driven by a 0.7% increase in traffic and a 1.3% increase in average ticket[11]. - The company experienced a diluted loss per share of $17.17, while diluted EPS from continuing operations was $1.86, reflecting a 23.8% decrease[5]. - Adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations was $2.11, down 15.3% year-over-year[15]. - For fiscal 2025, Dollar Tree expects net sales to range from $18.5 billion to $19.1 billion, with comparable store net sales growth projected between 3% to 5%[24]. - The company anticipates adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations to be between $5.00 and $5.50, impacted by shared services costs related to the Family Dollar business[26]. - Operating income for the fourth quarter decreased by 26.5% to $534 million, with an operating margin contraction of 390 basis points to 10.7%[15]. - Total revenue for the fiscal year 2025 was reported at $17,578.5 million, up from $16,781.1 million in the previous fiscal year, indicating a growth of approximately 4.75%[39]. - Operating income for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $533.6 million, down from $725.6 million for the same period last year, representing a decrease of about 26.4%[39]. - The company reported a net loss of $3,695.9 million for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025, compared to a net loss of $1,709.8 million for the same period last year[39]. - Basic earnings per share from continuing operations were $1.86 for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025, down from $2.44 for the same period last year[39]. - Total revenue for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $17,565.9 million, with net sales of $4,996.7 million for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025[67]. - Operating income for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $2,088.6 million, with an operating income margin of 11.9%[67]. - Income from continuing operations (GAAP) for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $400.2 million, down from $532.4 million for the same period last year[65]. - Adjusted income from continuing operations (Non-GAAP) for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $454.8 million, representing 9.1% of total revenue, compared to 11.0% for the same period last year[65]. - The company reported a total of 215.7 million weighted average shares for basic earnings per share calculation[71]. Store Operations - Dollar Tree opened 33 new stores in the fourth quarter, bringing total openings for fiscal 2024 to 525[13]. - The company opened 525 new stores during the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, while closing 71 stores, resulting in a net increase in store count to 8,881[47]. - The selling square footage for Dollar Tree increased to 78.4 million square feet, reflecting a growth rate of 7.3% compared to the previous year[47]. Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $1,256.5 million as of February 1, 2025, compared to $425.2 million as of February 3, 2024[41]. - Total current assets rose to $9,107.2 million as of February 1, 2025, compared to $6,132.7 million a year earlier, showing a significant increase[41]. - Total liabilities decreased slightly to $14,666.6 million as of February 1, 2025, from $14,710.4 million as of February 3, 2024[41]. Tax and Expenses - The effective tax rate for the company was 25.9%, compared to 23.7% in the previous year[16]. - The effective tax rate for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was 25.9%, compared to 23.7% for the same period last year[39]. - Selling, general and administrative expenses for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025, were $1,120.7 million, with an adjusted expense rate of 22.3%[67]. - Dollar Tree's selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) increased to $4,832.4 million for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, compared to $4,245.2 million the previous year, representing a rise of 13.8%[45]. Strategic Decisions - The company entered into a definitive agreement to sell the Family Dollar business for $1,007 million, with estimated net proceeds of approximately $804 million[4]. - The company is currently in the process of selling Family Dollar, which is subject to closing conditions and adjustments to the purchase price[34]. - The Family Dollar segment reported a total revenue of $13,267.1 million for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, down from $13,822.7 million the previous year, indicating a decline of 4.0%[51]. - The company incurred $33.8 million in consulting and other expenses related to the strategic review of the Family Dollar business segment, concluding with a decision to sell the segment[56]. - The company plans to continue focusing on market expansion and new product development to drive future growth[86]. Impairments and Losses - A $3,438.7 million loss was recorded due to the classification of the Family Dollar business as held for sale, with a $1,400.0 million impairment charge for the Family Dollar trade name[56]. - The company reported a significant impairment of intangible assets and goodwill amounting to $1,890.5 million for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025[79]. - Non-operating held for sale loss was recorded at $3,438.8 million for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025[79]. - The company reported a loss from discontinued operations of $4,072.6 million for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025[76]. - The company experienced a total operating loss (GAAP) of $1,824.8 million for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025[79]. Cash Flow - Free cash flow is highlighted as an important liquidity indicator, calculated as net cash provided by operating activities less capital expenditures[58]. - Total net cash provided by operating activities for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $2,193.3 million, compared to $2,400.8 million in the prior year[94]. - Free cash flow from continuing operations for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $562.8 million, down from $707.8 million in the previous year[94].

Group 1: Stock Market Overview - The stock market is influenced by various factors including housing, consumer spending, jobless claims, and earnings reports from companies like Lululemon and Dollar Tree, but upcoming tariffs on April 2nd could render current data obsolete [1] - Investor concerns about potential tariff rates ranging from 10% to 25% have been somewhat alleviated by President Trump's suggestion to narrow the scope of these tariffs, although uncertainty remains [2][3] Group 2: Housing Market Insights - The Case-Shiller Home Prices report for January shows an overall increase of 4.1%, slightly above the previous month but below estimates, with the 10-city index growing by 5.3% and the 20-city index increasing to 4.7% [4] - Major cities like New York City, Chicago, and Boston are experiencing significant home price growth, while Tampa is the only city reporting a decline of 1.5% [5] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Data - The non-manufacturing Philly Fed data has dropped to -32.5, the lowest since May 2020, indicating a significant downturn, with a decline in new orders by nearly 33% contributing to this drop [6][7] Group 4: New Home Sales Expectations - New Home Sales for February are anticipated to rise to 677K from 657K, which would be the highest level since December, suggesting potential positive momentum in the housing market [8] - Existing Home Sales have exceeded expectations, reaching 4.26 million compared to the anticipated 3.95 million, indicating a robust housing market [9]

Core Viewpoint - Dollar Tree, Inc. is expected to report declines in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, with revenue estimated at $8.2 billion, a decrease of 4.7% year-over-year, and earnings per share projected at $2.18, down 14.5% from the previous year [1][3]. Financial Performance - The trailing four-quarter average negative earnings surprise for Dollar Tree is 8.7%, although the last reported quarter saw an earnings beat of 4.7% against the Zacks Consensus Estimate [2]. - Management had previously anticipated consolidated net sales between $8.1 billion and $8.3 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be in the range of $2.10 to $2.30 [5]. Market Trends - The anticipated fourth-quarter results are influenced by soft demand for discretionary items due to reduced spending among low-income consumers, alongside inflationary pressures and increased interest rates [3][4]. - Adverse foreign currency translations are also expected to negatively impact performance [3]. Operational Insights - Dollar Tree has been experiencing rising selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses due to elevated operating costs, which are likely to affect both top and bottom lines [4]. - The company is making progress on restructuring and expansion initiatives, including steady store openings and improvements in distribution centers, which may help cushion revenue declines [6]. Comparable Store Sales - Management predicted low-single-digit comparable store sales growth for both Dollar Tree and Family Dollar segments, with an overall enterprise comps growth of 1.8% expected for the fiscal fourth quarter [7]. Valuation Metrics - Dollar Tree shares are currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 10.59X, significantly below the five-year median of 17.88X and the industry average of 29.54X, indicating an attractive valuation for potential investors [9]. - The stock has a Value Score of B, further supporting its investment appeal [9]. Stock Performance - Over the past six months, Dollar Tree's shares have declined by 9.4%, compared to a 5% decline in the industry [10].

Group 1: Company Performance - Dollar Tree closed at $65.79, with a +1.91% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.64% [1] - Over the past month, Dollar Tree shares have depreciated by 9.78%, which is better than the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 11.57% and worse than the S&P 500's loss of 7.69% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings - Dollar Tree's earnings report is scheduled for March 26, 2025, with an expected EPS of $2.18, reflecting a 14.51% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projected at $8.23 billion, down 4.71% from the previous year [2] Group 3: Analyst Projections - Recent shifts in analyst projections for Dollar Tree should be monitored, as they reflect short-term business trends and can indicate analyst optimism regarding the company's profitability [3] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Dollar Tree is currently trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 10.7, which is lower than the industry average of 17.61, suggesting it is trading at a discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.47, compared to the Retail - Discount Stores industry's average PEG ratio of 2.42 [7] Group 5: Industry Ranking - The Retail - Discount Stores industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 143, placing it in the bottom 44% of all industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Dollar Tree Inc. is experiencing a potential uptrend in its stock price, influenced by oversold conditions and insights from competitor Dollar General's earnings report, with Dollar Tree's earnings set to be released on March 25 [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Dollar Tree shares found support at the $62 level, which had previously acted as support in November [2]. - A significant number of buy orders were placed when the stock dropped to around $62, leading to the formation of support at this level again [4]. - The stock entered an uptrend due to a bidding war among investors, driven by oversold conditions and the anticipation of a price reversal [5]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors who sold shares around $62 in November felt remorse after the price increased, prompting them to place buy orders at the same price [3]. - The psychology of remorseful sellers contributed to the support level at $62, as they aimed to repurchase shares at their previous selling price [2][3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The moving average envelope, which is 7% below the 20-day moving average, indicated a good buying opportunity when the stock dropped below this threshold [5]. - If Dollar Tree's stock rallies back to the moving average again, it suggests a continued upward movement [5].

Core Viewpoint - Dollar Tree (DLTR) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ending January 2025, with the consensus outlook indicating potential impacts on its near-term stock price [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Dollar Tree's quarterly earnings is $2.20 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 13.7%, while revenues are projected to be $8.23 billion, down 4.7% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.01% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a slight reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for Dollar Tree is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +3.99%, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11]. - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Dollar Tree was expected to post earnings of $1.07 per share but exceeded expectations with earnings of $1.12, resulting in a surprise of +4.67% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Dollar Tree has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13]. Conclusion - Dollar Tree is viewed as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, but investors are advised to consider other factors that may influence stock performance beyond earnings results [16].

Core Viewpoint - Dollar Tree, Inc. is showing potential for a bullish breakout as its stock appears to have formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is typically indicative of upward price movement [1]. Technical Analysis - Technical analysis often faces skepticism due to a lack of understanding of underlying fundamentals, with analysts sometimes identifying patterns without grasping the price actions that lead to their formation [2]. - Patterns such as 'rounded tops' or 'rounded bottoms' can emerge from prolonged leadership changes, while a single-day shift may result in a 'reversal day' pattern [3]. Dollar Tree's Chart Analysis - The ascending triangle pattern on Dollar Tree's chart indicates that sellers are patient around the $76.60 resistance level, willing to sell if buyers approach but ready to wait otherwise [4]. - The pattern also reflects increasing aggressiveness from buyers, who are willing to pay higher prices over time [4]. - The formation of higher lows in the market suggests that buyers are entering at elevated price points, reinforcing the bullish sentiment [5]. Market Dynamics - The ascending triangle pattern illustrates the interaction between aggressive buyers and patient sellers, which typically suggests a bullish trend for Dollar Tree [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing and highlights Dollar Tree (DLTR) as a strong value stock based on various financial metrics [2][8]. Group 1: Value Investing Strategy - Value investing focuses on identifying companies that are undervalued by the market using various valuation metrics [2]. - Zacks has developed a Style Scores system to identify stocks with specific traits, particularly in the "Value" category [3]. Group 2: Dollar Tree Financial Metrics - Dollar Tree (DLTR) has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and a Value grade of A, indicating strong potential as a value stock [4]. - DLTR's P/E ratio is 12.39, significantly lower than the industry average of 33.19, suggesting it is undervalued [4]. - The stock's Forward P/E has ranged from 8.92 to 20.94 over the past 12 months, with a median of 13.32 [4]. - DLTR's PEG ratio is 2.13, compared to the industry average of 3.69, indicating favorable growth expectations relative to its valuation [5]. - The P/S ratio for DLTR is 0.53, slightly below the industry average of 0.55, reinforcing its value proposition [6]. - DLTR's P/CF ratio stands at 16.54, well below the industry average of 31.44, highlighting its strong cash flow outlook [7]. - Overall, these metrics suggest that Dollar Tree is likely undervalued and presents a strong investment opportunity [8].

Group 1: Stock Performance - Dollar Tree (DLTR) closed at $76.29, marking a +0.89% move from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's 0.43% loss [1] - Over the previous month, Dollar Tree shares gained 5.07%, trailing the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 5.51% and outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 2.6% [1] Group 2: Financial Forecast - Dollar Tree is forecasted to report an EPS of $2.18, indicating a 14.51% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - The revenue is estimated to be $8.23 billion, reflecting a 4.7% decline compared to the corresponding quarter of the prior year [2] Group 3: Analyst Estimates and Ratings - Changes in analyst estimates for Dollar Tree are important as they reflect short-term business dynamics, with positive changes indicating a favorable outlook [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks Dollar Tree at 2 (Buy) [5] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Dollar Tree has a Forward P/E ratio of 12.48, which is lower than the industry average of 18.82, suggesting it is trading at a discount [6] - The PEG ratio for Dollar Tree is currently 2.14, matching the average PEG ratio for the Retail - Discount Stores industry [7] Group 5: Industry Ranking - The Retail - Discount Stores industry has a Zacks Industry Rank of 30, placing it in the top 12% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of industry groups, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Investors in the Retail - Discount Stores sector should consider Dollar Tree (DLTR) and TJX (TJX) as potential undervalued stocks, with a focus on their valuation metrics and earnings outlooks [1]. Valuation Metrics - Both Dollar Tree and TJX currently hold a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive revisions to their earnings estimates and improving earnings outlooks [3]. - Dollar Tree has a forward P/E ratio of 12.48, significantly lower than TJX's forward P/E of 26.95, suggesting that Dollar Tree may be undervalued [5]. - The PEG ratio for Dollar Tree is 2.14, while TJX's PEG ratio is 2.76, indicating that Dollar Tree has a more favorable earnings growth outlook relative to its price [5]. - Dollar Tree's P/B ratio stands at 2.13, compared to TJX's P/B of 16.98, further supporting the argument that Dollar Tree is a better value option [6]. Value Grades - Based on various valuation metrics, Dollar Tree has earned a Value grade of A, while TJX has received a Value grade of C, highlighting Dollar Tree's superior valuation profile [6].