Financial Performance - The Company reported net income of $343.4 million for the 13 weeks ended May 3, 2025, compared to $300.1 million for the same period in 2024, representing an increase of approximately 14.4%[49] - Income from continuing operations was $313.5 million for the 13 weeks ended May 3, 2025, up from $267.7 million in the prior year, reflecting a growth of about 17.1%[49] - Basic earnings per share for continuing operations increased to $1.47 for the 13 weeks ended May 3, 2025, from $1.23 in the prior year, marking a growth of approximately 19.5%[49] Share Repurchase - The Company repurchased 5,926,985 shares of common stock at a cost of $436.8 million during the 13 weeks ended May 3, 2025, compared to 2,537,302 shares for $312.8 million in the same period of 2024[50] Business Transactions - The Company entered into a definitive agreement to sell the Family Dollar business for a purchase consideration of $1,007.0 million, with estimated net proceeds of approximately $800 million expected to close in the second quarter of fiscal 2025[26] - The company has entered into a definitive agreement to sell the Family Dollar business for $1,007.0 million, with estimated net proceeds of approximately $800 million expected to close in Q2 fiscal 2025[60] Insurance and Losses - The Company incurred losses of $117.0 million due to a tornado that destroyed its distribution center in Marietta, Oklahoma, but these losses were fully offset by insurance receivables[30] - The Company received insurance proceeds totaling $150.0 million in fiscal 2024 related to the tornado, including $100.0 million for damaged inventory[32] Debt and Credit Facilities - The Company has a new $1.5 billion revolving credit facility that matures on March 21, 2030, and a $1.0 billion 364-Day Revolving Credit Facility maturing on March 20, 2026[38][41] - The fair value of the Company's Senior Notes was reported at $3,147.6 million as of May 3, 2025, compared to $3,140.9 million as of February 1, 2025[47] - The company’s outstanding payment obligations under the supply chain finance program were $352.0 million as of May 3, 2025, compared to $42.4 million a year earlier[59] Segment Performance - Dollar Tree segment net sales for the 13 weeks ended May 3, 2025, were $4,636.5 million, a 11.3% increase from $4,165.6 million in the same period last year[56] - Gross profit for the Dollar Tree segment was $1,649.5 million, representing a gross margin of 35.5%, compared to $1,476.5 million and a gross margin of 35.4% for the same period last year[56] - Operating income for the Dollar Tree segment was $522.7 million, up from $522.3 million year-over-year, indicating stable operational performance despite increased costs[56] - The Family Dollar business reported net sales of $3,309.6 million for the 13 weeks ended May 3, 2025, down from $3,460.8 million in the prior year, reflecting a decline of approximately 4.4%[61] - Capital expenditures for the Dollar Tree segment were $238.3 million for the 13 weeks ended May 3, 2025, compared to $271.4 million in the same period last year[55] Market Risks and Inflation - The company is exposed to market risks including interest rate changes, with no borrowings outstanding under credit facilities as of May 3, 2025[119] - Inflationary factors impacting the business include merchandise costs, transportation costs (including diesel fuel), store construction-related costs, and labor[120] - Significant inflationary pressures may not be fully offset through product assortment adjustments, operational efficiencies, or increases in comparable store net sales[120] - Failure to manage inflationary costs could harm the business, financial condition, and results of operations[120]

Supplemental Financial Presentation 1st Quarter 2025 KEY TAKEAWAYS First Quarter 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS From Continuing Operations of $1.26 Forward Looking Statements This Supplemental Financial Presentation contains "forward-looking statements," as that term is used in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, concerning our business and outlook, including our expected sales, comparable store sales, adjusted diluted earnings per share; gross margins, adjusted SG&A expense rates, transition s ...

Financial Performance - Dollar Tree's net sales increased by 11.3% to $4.6 billion compared to the same period in fiscal 2024[10] - Same-store net sales growth was 5.4%, driven by a 2.5% increase in traffic and a 2.8% increase in average ticket[10] - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations was $1.47, representing a 19.5% increase year-over-year[12] - Total revenue for the 13 weeks ended May 3, 2025, was $4,639.7 million, an increase of 11.3% compared to $4,168.9 million for the same period in 2024[32] - Net income for the same period was $343.4 million, up 14.4% from $300.1 million year-over-year[32] - Basic earnings per share from continuing operations increased to $1.47, compared to $1.23 in the prior year, reflecting a growth of 19.5%[32] - Gross profit increased to $988.2 million, resulting in a gross margin of 29.9%, up from 25.2% in the prior year[45] - Operating income rose significantly to $291.9 million, with an operating margin of 8.8%, compared to just 1.1% in the previous year[45] Shareholder Returns - The company completed over $500 million in share repurchases year-to-date, with an additional 780 thousand shares purchased for $67.5 million after the quarter-end[6][13] - Adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations outlook is updated to a range of $5.15 to $5.65, reflecting the impact of year-to-date share repurchases[19] Store Operations - The company opened 148 new Dollar Tree stores and converted approximately 500 stores to the 3.0 multi-price format[6] - The company opened 148 new stores during the quarter, bringing the total store count to 9,016, a net increase of 496 stores year-over-year[42] - The company closed 25 stores during the quarter, resulting in an ending store count of 7,591, down from 7,877 a year earlier[45] Cash Flow and Liquidity - The company generated $379 million of net cash from operating activities and $130 million of free cash flow from continuing operations[7] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $1,311.2 million, an increase from $691.7 million at the same time last year[38] - Free cash flow from continuing operations was $129.7 million, down from $188.7 million in the prior year[62] Outlook and Guidance - The full-year fiscal 2025 net sales outlook is reiterated at a range of $18.5 billion to $19.1 billion, with comparable store net sales growth expected between 3% to 5%[18] Expenses and Margins - Selling, general and administrative expenses increased to $1,268.6 million, representing 27.3% of total revenue, compared to 26.3% in the previous year[32] - The operating income margin decreased to 8.3% from 9.2% year-over-year, indicating a slight decline in operational efficiency[32] - Sales per square foot decreased to $222 from $227 year-over-year, reflecting a decline of 2.2%[45][46] Tax and Other Income - The effective tax rate for the quarter was 25.9%, up from 24.6% in the prior year[32] - The effective tax rate for continuing operations was 25.9%, with an adjusted effective tax rate of 26.1%[59] - Insurance proceeds of $220 million were received related to losses from a tornado that destroyed a distribution center, resulting in a gain of $61.8 million recognized in the first quarter of fiscal 2025[52] - The company incurred $3.7 million in consulting and other expenses related to the strategic review of the Family Dollar business[52] Strategic Initiatives - The sale of Family Dollar is on track to close during the second quarter of fiscal 2025, with estimated net proceeds of approximately $800 million[15]

Group 1 - Dollar Tree is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on June 4, 2025, with estimates of $1.20 per share and $4.53 billion in revenue, reflecting a 13% year-over-year drop in earnings and a 41% decrease in sales compared to the previous year [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $19 billion and reported $18 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $1.5 billion and a net income of -$3.0 billion [2] - Historically, Dollar Tree's stock has fallen 53% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day decline of 11.1% and a maximum observed drop of 22% [1][2] Group 2 - Dollar Tree is attracting more affluent shoppers due to ongoing inflation, while still being dependent on lower- and middle-income consumers [2] - The company is vulnerable to new tariffs but is attempting to mitigate this through supplier negotiations, manufacturing adjustments, and selective price increases [2] - Over the past five years, Dollar Tree has recorded 19 earnings announcements, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 47% positive return rate [4]

Core Viewpoint - Dollar Tree (DLTR.US) is set to release its Q1 earnings on June 4, which will serve as a key indicator of consumer resilience in the U.S. retail sector, particularly in light of tariff policies and economic uncertainty [1] Group 1: Market Context - Consumers are tightening their spending, which may create growth opportunities for discount retailers [1] - Retail sector performance is mixed, with Target (TGT.US) reporting a 2.8% year-over-year revenue decline to $23.8 billion, while companies like Best Buy (BBY.US) have lowered their earnings guidance amid trade fluctuations [1] - Dollar Tree faces challenges due to its high reliance on imported goods, in contrast to its competitor Dollar General (DG.US), which has a lower dependency on imports [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Expectations - UBS analysts suggest that the opportunities for dollar stores currently outweigh the risks and uncertainties, driven by a trend of consumers downgrading their spending [1] - The closure of stores by competitors Big Lots and Party City may lead to increased foot traffic for Dollar Tree [1] - The potential cancellation of the "minimum exception" policy could result in price increases from cross-border e-commerce platforms like SHEIN and Temu, possibly driving consumers back to physical discount stores [1] Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Oppenheimer analysts expect both Dollar Tree and Dollar General to meet Q1 consensus expectations, but anticipate that Dollar Tree may lower its earnings guidance due to its higher import exposure and discretionary goods risk from tariff policies [2] - Dollar General's recent store optimization plan, which includes closing around 150 stores, has impacted its profit expectations [2] - Market consensus anticipates Dollar Tree's earnings per share to be $1.21, with revenue projected at $4.54 billion, a significant decline from the previous year's $1.43 EPS and $7.63 billion revenue [2] - Analysts generally hold a neutral stance on Dollar Tree, with 10 ratings as "strong buy," 15 as "hold," and 1 as "sell," and a 12-month average target price of $87.60, indicating a potential downside of 4.37% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dollar General and Dollar Tree are experiencing a rebound in stock prices due to turnaround strategies aimed at improving operational efficiency, with upcoming quarterly results anticipated by investors [1]. Group 1: Turnaround Strategies - Dollar General is implementing a "Back to Basics" strategy focusing on inventory management, store remodels, and reducing shrinkage to enhance operational efficiency and customer satisfaction [2]. - Dollar Tree plans to sell its struggling Family Dollar business to Brigade Capital for $1 billion, which is significantly lower than the original $8 billion purchase price, aiming to alleviate declining profitability and overhead costs [3]. Group 2: Performance Overview - Dollar General stock is currently trading 30% below its 52-week high of $141, while Dollar Tree shares are 25% below their one-year high of $121. Both stocks have rebounded over 20% year to date, with a surge of more than 30% in the last three months [4]. Group 3: Q1 Expectations - Dollar General's Q1 sales are projected to increase by 4% year over year to $10.29 billion, with an expected EPS decline to $1.47 from $1.65 a year ago. However, there is potential for Dollar General to surpass earnings expectations with a more accurate estimate of $1.51 [5]. - Dollar Tree's Q1 sales are expected to drop to $4.54 billion from $7.63 billion in the prior year, with earnings anticipated to decrease by 17% to $1.19 per share. The most accurate estimate suggests a potential EPS of $1.25, which is 5% above the Zacks Consensus [7][8]. Group 4: Valuation Comparison - Both Dollar General and Dollar Tree are trading at 17X forward earnings, which is a discount compared to the S&P 500 and the Zacks Retail-Discount Stores Industry average of 22X. They also trade under the optimal level of less than 2X sales [9]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - Both companies hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) ahead of their Q1 reports, with future upside dependent on demonstrating a turnaround in operational efficiency and meeting or exceeding Q1 expectations [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast a significant decline in Dollar Tree's quarterly earnings and revenues, indicating potential challenges for the company in the upcoming earnings report [1][5]. Earnings Estimates - Dollar Tree is expected to report earnings of $1.19 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 16.8% [1]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 2.7% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2]. Revenue Projections - Total net sales are projected to reach $4.53 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of 40.5% [5]. - Other revenue is expected to be $3.65 million, indicating a year-over-year change of -44.2% [5]. Store Metrics - Analysts predict that the number of stores closed will be 13, down from 16 in the same quarter last year [5]. - The ending stores are estimated to reach 8,969, an increase from 8,520 reported in the same quarter last year [6]. - New stores are projected at 100, compared to 116 in the previous year [6]. Operational Metrics - Selling square footage is expected to reach 79.46 million square feet, up from 74.1 million square feet in the same quarter last year [7]. - Operating income is anticipated to be $526.21 million, slightly up from $522.30 million reported in the same quarter of the previous year [7]. Market Performance - Dollar Tree shares have increased by 11.5% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which rose by 6.4% [8].

Core Viewpoint - Dollar Tree, Inc. is expected to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with significant pressures from reduced consumer spending and inflationary challenges [1][5][7]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $4.5 billion, reflecting a 40.5% decrease from the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings is $1.20 per share, indicating a 16.1% decline year-over-year [1]. - The company has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 8.4% on average, with the last quarter's earnings missing the estimate by 3.2% [4]. Market Trends - Continued soft demand for discretionary items is anticipated due to reduced spending among low-income consumers [5]. - Inflationary pressures and increased interest rates are contributing to the company's challenges [5]. - Adverse foreign currency translations are also negatively impacting performance [5]. Operational Adjustments - The company is diversifying its supplier base and exploring alternative manufacturing locations to mitigate risks from additional tariffs [6]. - Adjustments to sourcing strategies may lead to transitional inefficiencies and increased short-term costs, affecting first-quarter results [6]. Cost Structure - Higher selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses are expected to negatively impact the top and bottom lines due to elevated operating costs [7]. - Earnings are projected to be negatively impacted by 30-35 cents per share due to shared service costs related to the Family Dollar sale [9]. Strategic Initiatives - Dollar Tree is making progress on restructuring and expansion initiatives, including steady store openings and improvements in distribution centers [10]. - Management predicts comparable store sales growth of 3-5%, with a model forecasting a 4.7% year-over-year increase for the Dollar Tree banner [11]. Valuation Insights - Dollar Tree shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 16.47X, below the five-year median of 17.86X and the industry average of 33.28X, indicating attractive valuation [13]. - The stock has gained 230.7% in the past three months, contrasting with a 1.3% decline in the industry [16].

Group 1: Stock Performance - Dollar Tree (DLTR) closed at $89.34, reflecting a -1.13% change from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.56% [1] - Over the past month, Dollar Tree shares have appreciated by 11.71%, outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 5.88% and the S&P 500's gain of 7.37% [1] Group 2: Earnings Expectations - Dollar Tree is expected to report earnings on June 4, 2025, with an anticipated EPS of $1.18, representing a 17.48% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate projects revenue of $4.54 billion, reflecting a 40.47% decrease from the equivalent quarter last year [2] - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $5.17 per share and revenue of $18.93 billion, indicating changes of +1.37% and -38.58% respectively from the previous year [3] Group 3: Analyst Projections and Valuation - Recent shifts in analyst projections for Dollar Tree are important, as positive estimate revisions indicate optimism about the company's business and profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks Dollar Tree at 3 (Hold) [6] - Dollar Tree has a Forward P/E ratio of 17.46, which is a discount compared to the industry's average Forward P/E of 22.14 [6] Group 4: Industry Context - Dollar Tree has a PEG ratio of 2.07, compared to the Retail - Discount Stores industry's average PEG ratio of 2.75 [7] - The Retail - Discount Stores industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 144, placing it in the bottom 42% of all industries [7][8]

Core Insights - The quarterly 13F filing season reveals investment activities of top hedge funds and institutional managers, providing insights into their buying and selling strategies [1][2] Group 1: Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) - Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a 30.3 million share stake in Uber, valued at approximately $2.3 billion, marking it as a core holding [3][4] - Ackman views Uber as a rare opportunity with significant growth potential, highlighting its strong performance with a 53% year-to-date increase and improving profitability [4] - Investors are advised to consider waiting for a pullback before investing, as shares are trading near all-time highs [5] Group 2: Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) - David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital acquired 436,360 shares of Dollar Tree, worth about $32.8 million, indicating a high-conviction bet on the stock [6][7] - The investment suggests a rebound opportunity for Dollar Tree amidst operational changes and pressures from inflation and tariffs, with shares up nearly 16% year-to-date [8] Group 3: DocuSign (NASDAQ: DOCU) - Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office purchased 1.07 million shares of DocuSign, valued at approximately $87.5 million, indicating confidence in the company's long-term relevance [9][10] - Despite a challenging year, recent price movements suggest a potential reversal for DocuSign, as it breaks out of its downtrend [10] Group 4: Estée Lauder (NYSE: EL) - Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management doubled down on Estée Lauder, making it his only long equity holding with 200,000 shares [11][12] - The stock has faced challenges, down nearly 13% year-to-date and 53% from its 52-week high, but Burry's move signals a strong belief in its recovery potential [13] Group 5: Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) - David Tepper's Appaloosa disclosed a new stake in Broadcom, purchasing 130,000 shares, as he reduced positions in other tech stocks [14][15] - Broadcom is positioned as a major beneficiary of AI trends, with strong exposure to custom chips and networking hardware, although its valuation is considered rich after a significant run-up [15]