Core Insights - eBay Inc. is valued at a market cap of $37.2 billion and operates one of the largest e-commerce marketplaces globally, connecting millions of buyers and sellers across over 190 markets [1] Performance Overview - eBay's shares have surged 29.8% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which gained 17.7% during the same period [2] - Year-to-date, eBay's stock is up 31.3%, compared to a 16.3% rise in the S&P 500 Index [2] - However, eBay has underperformed the ProShares Online Retail ETF, which returned 36.7% over the past 52 weeks and 34.1% year-to-date [3] Financial Results - eBay reported Q3 earnings on October 29, with revenue increasing 9.5% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, surpassing consensus estimates by 2.9% [4] - The adjusted EPS for Q3 was $1.36, reflecting a 14.3% increase from the previous year and exceeding analyst expectations by 2.3% [4] - Despite positive earnings, eBay's shares fell 15.9% in the following trading session due to a weaker-than-expected Q4 profit outlook and stagnant active buyer numbers year-over-year [4] Future Expectations - Analysts project eBay's EPS to grow 12.5% year-over-year to $4.42 for the current fiscal year ending in December [5] - eBay has a strong earnings surprise history, having exceeded or met consensus estimates in the last four quarters [5] Analyst Ratings - Among 33 analysts covering eBay, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with a distribution of ratings including nine "Strong Buy," two "Moderate Buy," 20 "Hold," one "Moderate Sell," and one "Strong Sell" [5] - The analyst sentiment has slightly improved, with eight analysts now suggesting a "Strong Buy" rating [6] - Wedbush maintained a "Hold" rating on eBay with a price target of $90, indicating a potential upside of 10.7% from current levels [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses stocks of interest for potential portfolio addition, targeting both beginners and advanced readers with a clear perspective [1] - The author emphasizes a personal approach to analyzing business and economics, indicating a full-time commitment to market analysis [1] Group 2 - There is a disclosure stating that the author has no current or planned stock positions in the mentioned companies, ensuring transparency [2] - The article expresses personal opinions and does not provide compensation for the content, aside from Seeking Alpha [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses stocks of interest for potential portfolio addition, targeting both beginners and advanced readers with a clear perspective [1] - The author operates a YouTube channel named "The Market Monkeys," where stock analyses are shared [1] Group 2 - There is a disclosure stating that the author has no current or planned positions in any mentioned companies within the next 72 hours [2] - The article expresses personal opinions and is not compensated beyond the platform it is published on [2]

Group 1 - UBS has lowered eBay's target price from $100 to $95 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Updates - China Metallurgical Group (01618) saw a decline of over 5%, reporting a revenue of 335.09 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.79%, and a net profit of 3.97 billion yuan, down 41.88% [1] - Fosen Pharmaceutical (01652) surged nearly 74% after announcing that its subsidiary received approval for the "Enzalutamide Soft Capsule" from the National Medical Products Administration of China [1] - Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) increased over 3%, with a revenue of 24.03 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year growth of 16.86%, and a net profit of 3.24 billion yuan, up 40.85% [1] - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (09995) rose over 5%, reporting a revenue of approximately 1.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.27%, and a net loss of about 551 million yuan, narrowing by 48.6% [1] - New Special Energy (01799) fell nearly 8%, with a revenue of 11.66 billion yuan and a net loss of 526 million yuan for the first three quarters [1] Group 2: Additional Hong Kong Stock Market Updates - Chuny Medical (01858) increased over 10%, reporting a revenue of 756 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 48.75%, and a net profit of 192 million yuan, up 213.21% [2] - Innovent Biologics (01801) rose over 4%, achieving total product revenue exceeding 3.3 billion yuan in Q3, maintaining a strong year-on-year growth of about 40% [2] - Longpan Technology (02465) increased over 6%, with a revenue of approximately 5.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.91%, and a net loss of about 110 million yuan, narrowing by 63.53% [2] - 3SBio (01530) saw an early morning increase of nearly 7%, following a significant deal with Pfizer worth up to $12.5 billion [2] - China CNR Corporation (01766) fell over 8%, reporting a revenue of approximately 183.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.49%, and a net profit of about 9.96 billion yuan, up 37.53% [2] Group 3: US Stock Market Updates - Carvana (CVNA.US) dropped over 13%, reporting a Q3 revenue growth of 54.5% to $5.65 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [3] - Alphabet (GOOGL.US) rose nearly 2%, with Q3 revenue surpassing $100 billion, driven by strong AI demand boosting cloud business [3] - Meta Platforms (META.US) fell over 11%, reporting Q3 revenue of $51.2 billion, a 26% year-on-year increase, but net profit significantly below expectations due to a one-time tax expense [4] - Bitcoin-related stocks experienced declines, with Strategy (MSTR.US) down nearly 7% and Coinbase (COIN.US) down over 5% [4] - eBay (EBAY.US) plummeted 15%, marking its largest drop in over 20 years despite exceeding sales expectations [4] Group 4: Additional US Stock Market Updates - Comcast (CMCSA.US) fell 4%, losing 104,000 broadband users in Q3, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of user decline [5] - CoreWeave (CRWV.US) dropped over 6% after shareholders rejected a proposed acquisition [5] - Roblox (RBLX.US) fell over 15%, reporting Q3 revenue of $1.4 billion, a 48% year-on-year increase, but widening net losses [5] - Moderna (MRNA.US) rose over 13%, reportedly in talks for a large-scale acquisition with a major pharmaceutical company [6] - Altria (MO.US) fell over 7%, reporting adjusted EPS of $1.45, in line with market consensus, but net revenue declined by 1.7% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with major indices showing mixed performance, particularly in the tech sector, where several large companies faced substantial declines [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq index fell by 0.93%, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.72%, indicating a divergence in market trends [3]. - Major tech stocks suffered losses, with Meta dropping nearly 13%, Tesla and Oracle down over 4%, and Broadcom down over 3% [3]. - eBay's stock plummeted over 15%, marking its largest drop since 2008, despite reporting a 9% year-over-year sales increase to $2.82 billion [4]. Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both dropping over 3%, leading to over $11 billion in liquidations and affecting more than 210,000 traders [4][5]. - The decline in cryptocurrency prices also impacted related stocks, with companies like Canaan and Coinbase experiencing notable drops [4]. Group 3: Gold and Silver Prices - In response to rising market risk aversion, gold prices increased by 1.65% to $3,994.26 per ounce, while silver prices surged by 2.61% to $48.72 per ounce [5]. Group 4: AI Bubble Discussion - Discussions around a potential AI bubble are intensifying, with UBS noting that six out of seven conditions for bubble formation are currently present [7]. - The report highlights that the current P/E ratio for major tech companies is 35, significantly lower than the 60 seen during the dot-com bubble, suggesting that while enthusiasm exists, extreme valuation levels have not yet been reached [8]. - UBS warns that if a bubble exists, it may manifest in high profit margins for tech and semiconductor stocks, which could face pressure from increased competition [9].

Financial Performance - Net revenues for Q3 2025 were $2,820 million, a 9.5% increase from $2,576 million in Q3 2024[19] - Gross profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $5,815 million, compared to $5,542 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a 4.9% increase[19] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $632 million, slightly down from $634 million in Q3 2024[19] - Basic net income per share for Q3 2025 was $1.39, compared to $1.31 in Q3 2024, marking a 6.1% increase[19] - eBay's net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,503 million, an increase of 16% compared to $1,296 million for the same period in 2024[25] - The total net revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, reached $8,135 million, a 5.6% increase from $7,704 million in the same period of 2024[54] Expenses and Liabilities - Operating expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $4,139 million, up from $3,767 million in the same period of 2024, indicating a 9.8% increase[19] - Total current assets decreased to $5,393 million as of September 30, 2025, down from $7,567 million as of December 31, 2024[17] - Total liabilities decreased to $13,072 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $14,207 million as of December 31, 2024[17] - Operating expenses for Q3 2025 totaled $1,423 million, a 13% increase from $1,254 million in Q3 2024, with general and administrative expenses rising by 46%[202] Cash Flow and Investments - Cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $1,376 million, compared to $1,737 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 20.8%[25] - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of the period increased to $3,513 million from $2,372 million in the previous year[26] - The total cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash amounted to $3,513 million as of September 30, 2025[100] - The company repurchased $1,888 million of common stock during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $2,268 million in the same period of 2024[25] Equity and Stockholder Information - The total stockholders' equity at the end of the period was $4,719 million, down from $5,420 million in the previous year[23] - eBay repurchased 25 million shares of common stock at an average price of $74.03 per share, totaling $1.875 billion, leaving an authorized amount of $1.423 billion as of September 30, 2025[151] - The total stock-based compensation expense for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $147 million, slightly up from $146 million in 2024, while for the nine months, it was $448 million compared to $446 million in 2024[156] Market Performance - Marketplace revenues increased to $2,295 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $2,168 million in the same period of 2024, representing a growth of 5.9%[54] - eBay's advertising revenues rose to $525 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, a significant increase of 28.7% from $408 million in the same period of 2024[54] - Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) grew to $20,105 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, reflecting a 10% increase year-over-year[192] Debt and Financing - Long-term debt decreased to $5,003 million as of September 30, 2025, from $5,752 million as of December 31, 2024[17] - As of September 30, 2025, total debt amounted to $6.751 billion, a decrease from $7.425 billion as of December 31, 2024, representing a reduction of approximately 9.0%[124] - The estimated fair value of senior notes was $5.7 billion as of September 30, 2025, down from $6.3 billion as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a decline of about 9.5%[131] Tax and Legal Matters - The company is under examination by tax authorities for the tax years 2010 to 2023, with potential adjustments being uncertain due to the number of years and matters involved[159] - The company paid $59 million as part of a settlement agreement with the DEA in January 2024, resolving allegations of noncompliance[140] Other Financial Metrics - The company reported a comprehensive income of $649 million for Q3 2025, compared to $701 million for Q3 2024[21] - The company recognized a total loss of $17 million from foreign exchange derivative contracts for the three months ended September 30, 2025[94] - The company recorded a discrete net tax benefit in Q3 2025 related to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which allows for immediate expensing of domestic R&D and certain capital expenditures[161]

Core Viewpoint - eBay's stock price declined over 14% following a profit forecast that did not meet investor expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - eBay's third-quarter revenue increased by 9% year over year, reaching $2.8 billion [3] - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose by 10% to $20.1 billion, reflecting the total value of merchandise sold on its platforms [3] - The company generated $803 million in free cash flow from continuing operations during the third quarter, allowing for $757 million to be returned to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks [5] Group 2: Business Outlook - Management projected adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter to be between $1.31 and $1.36, which is below analysts' expectations of $1.39 [6] - The suspension of the de minimis exemption for imports under $800 for tariffs has begun to negatively impact transaction volumes since September [6] Group 3: Technological Integration - eBay is incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) features into its platform to enhance transactions between buyers and sellers, including a new AI-powered messaging tool [4] - The CEO emphasized the transformation of the eBay experience through AI, leveraging 30 years of insights while improving programs in shipping, live commerce, and circular fashion [4]

Core Insights - eBay Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 non-GAAP earnings of $1.36 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.26%, with a year-over-year increase of 14.3% [1][7] - Net revenues reached $2.82 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.9%, and reflecting a 9.5% increase from the previous year [1][7] Revenue and Advertising Performance - First-party advertising products generated revenues of $496 million, marking a 25% increase on an as-reported basis and 23% on an FX-neutral basis [2] - Total advertising offerings yielded $525 million in revenues, accounting for 2.6% of gross merchandise volume (GMV) [2] Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) Details - Total GMV for the quarter was $20.11 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 10% on a reported basis and 8% on an FX-neutral basis, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $19.42 billion [3] - U.S. GMV was $9.87 billion, representing 49.1% of total GMV, with a 13% year-over-year increase, while international GMV was $10.23 billion, accounting for 50.9% of total GMV, with a 7% year-over-year increase [3] Operating Expenses and Margins - Operating expenses totaled $1.42 billion, up 13.5% year over year, with operating expenses as a percentage of net revenues increasing by 180 basis points to 48.7% [4] - The non-GAAP operating margin was 27.1%, contracting by 10 basis points year over year [4] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of September 30, 2025, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $3.38 billion, down from $3.75 billion as of June 30, 2025 [5] - Long-term debt remained stable at $5 billion, while cash flow from operating activities was $934 million, a significant recovery from negative $307 million in the previous quarter [5] Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Free cash flow from continuing operations was reported at $803 million, with $625 million used for share repurchases and $132 million for cash dividends [6] - Approximately $1.4 billion remains under the buyback authorization as of September 30, 2025 [6] Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, eBay expects revenues between $2.83 billion and $2.89 billion, with an anticipated FX-neutral revenue growth of 8-10% [8] - The non-GAAP operating margin for Q4 is projected to be between 25.8% and 26.3%, with GMV expected in the range of $20.5 billion to $20.9 billion [8] - For the full year 2025, revenues are expected to be between $10.97 billion and $11.03 billion, with an FX-neutral revenue growth of 6-6% [9]

Core Viewpoint - eBay's stock experienced a significant decline despite reporting better-than-expected third-quarter results, attributed to a mixed outlook for the holiday quarter and high expectations set by previous stock performance [1][4]. Financial Performance - eBay reported adjusted earnings of $1.36 per share for the September-ended quarter, a 14% increase from the previous year, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.33 per share [2]. - Sales rose by 9% to $2.82 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.73 billion [2]. Management Commentary - CEO Jamie Iannone highlighted the company's ongoing momentum and strategic execution, emphasizing the transformation of the eBay experience through AI and enhanced shipping and commerce programs [3]. - For the upcoming quarter, eBay projected sales of $2.86 billion, slightly above the $2.8 billion forecasted by analysts, but adjusted earnings guidance of $1.31 to $1.36 per share fell short of the $1.38 expected by analysts [3]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, eBay's stock fell over 14% to $85.31, marking its largest single-day drop since October 2008 [4]. - Analyst Mark Mahaney attributed the sell-off to lower-than-expected Q4 earnings per share and operating margin outlook, along with a soft growth outlook for 2026 [4]. Growth Outlook - eBay's CFO indicated expectations for a third consecutive year of positive gross merchandise volume (GMV) and revenue growth, but noted challenges in comparing to a strong previous year [4]. - The company projected a 5% growth in GMV for 2025, which disappointed some investors regarding the 2026 outlook [5]. Analyst Perspectives - Analyst Stephen Ju expressed concerns about eBay's 2026 GMV growth against tougher comparisons, reiterating a neutral stance on the stock [5]. - Some analysts suggested a broader view, indicating that eBay could benefit from innovations and agentic shopping trends, with Needham analyst Bernie McTernan maintaining a buy rating and raising the price target from $95 to $115 [8][9].