10月初，市场分析机构 Adobe Analytics 发布报告指出，2025年秋冬购物季，AI驱动的购物模式将迎来爆发，仅AI带来的购物流量同比预计增长520%，并 将在感恩节前10天达到峰值。与2024年相比，美国零售网站的AI流量激增805%——而在去年，沃尔玛的「Sparky」、亚马逊的「Rufus」等AI购物工具尚 未出现。 更极致的变化先一步在中国发生了。千问APP在"春节30亿大免单"活动推动下，仅9小时订单便突破1000万单，6天完成1.2亿单，连续登顶下载榜。 AI超级应用引发的消费形式变革已势不可挡。 壹览商业注意到，酒旅业在供给侧的反应速度超乎预期。2月11日，阿里千问与飞猪宣布与全球40多家旅行品牌启动AI合作，为AI用户提供专属补贴与权 益。首批合作方涵盖中国东方航空、中国南方航空、汉莎航空等航司，锦江、华住、万达酒店及度假村等酒店集团，以及上海迪士尼度假区、方特主题乐 园等头部目的地与乐园品牌。 这种集体性 "抢摊"意味着，酒旅行业正将 AI 视为一个独立的、具备爆发力的战略渠道。 酒旅竞争进入深水区，AI颠覆一切？ 国内互联网竞争史，本质是一部流量入口迁移史。门户时代，入口掌握在 ...

AI对话工具开始变得更像一个新型电商平台，尽管短时间内还未能看到成规模的出单迹象，但已经开始在一定程度上改变用户过往的购物路径。Adobe数 据显示，在2025年假日购物季期间，从AI推荐引流至零售商渠道的流量同比增长近700%。有机构预估，到2030年，AI代理可能会影响15%-25%的电商销 售额。 与此同时，传统电商平台似乎开始警惕了。亚马逊、eBay等，接连出手禁止AI代理爬取并推荐平台上的商品（注：目前eBay唯一接入了ChatGPT），关起 门做自己的站内AI购物助手，势要守住现有流量。 继上一次出现"独立站 vs 第三方平台"的路线分野后，跨境电商行业似乎又走到了一个分水岭：以ChatGPT和Gemini为代表的AI对话工具，和以亚马逊、 eBay为代表的传统电商平台，或许将在AI电商时代迎来一场新的流量入口大战。 AI入口大战的开端："开放网络"对决"围墙花园" 围绕AI购物，主流玩家们呈现出迥然不同的倾向：一方走向彻底开放；一方则是先筑起围墙，观望后再下手。 前者以OpenAI和Google为代表，选择拥抱所有生态，能够跨平台、跨渠道地接入商品信息与购物场景，通过自然语言交互、智能推荐等方式 ...

Core Insights - Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) reported mixed results for Q4 2025, with revenues of $213.4 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, but earnings per share of $1.95 fell short of expectations by 1.52% [1] - The announcement of a $200 billion capital expenditure plan for 2026 raised concerns among investors about the impact on near-term returns, despite the strong revenue performance [1] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenues reached $213.4 billion, exceeding expectations and reflecting a 14% increase year over year [1] - Earnings per share were $1.95, which narrowly missed the consensus estimate [1] - Free cash flow declined 71% year over year to $11.2 billion, raising concerns about future returns [5] AWS and AI Developments - Amazon Web Services (AWS) generated $35.6 billion in Q4 revenues, marking a 24% year-over-year growth, the fastest in 13 quarters [3] - AWS order backlog increased by 40% year over year to $244 billion, indicating strong demand [3] - The custom silicon strategy is gaining traction, with Trainium and Graviton chips achieving a combined annual revenue run rate exceeding $10 billion [4] Strategic Guidance - For Q1 2026, Amazon projected net sales between $173.5 billion and $178.5 billion, representing 11-15% year-over-year growth [6] - Operating income guidance is set between $16.5 billion and $21.5 billion, factoring in increased costs from various investments [6] Advertising and Operational Efficiency - Q4 advertising revenues reached $21.3 billion, up 23% year over year [7] - Amazon announced 16,000 corporate layoffs in January 2026 to streamline operations and improve efficiency [7] - Prime delivery speeds improved significantly, with over eight billion items delivered same-day or next-day, a 30% increase from the previous year [7] Valuation and Competitive Landscape - AMZN stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings ratio of 25.67X, higher than the industry average of 22.23X, indicating potential overvaluation [8] - Amazon's stock has underperformed compared to competitors, with a 9.6% decline over the past year, while Microsoft and Alphabet have seen positive returns [12] Competitive Threats - Competitors like Alphabet's Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure reported higher growth rates than AWS, indicating increasing competitive pressure [16] - The narrowing competitive gap in the cloud market is a concern, with significant investments from rivals in AI and cloud infrastructure [16]

2026年2月9日 CMB国际全球市场 | 股权研究 | 公司更新 亚马逊（AMZN US） 成长故事不变，AWS收入增长加速，超出预期。 亚马逊宣布（2月6日北京时间）2025年第四季度业绩：收入为2134亿美元，同比增长1 4%，按固定汇率计算同比增长12%（2024年第四季度：按固定汇率计算增长11%）， 比我们的预测/摩根大通一致预期高出1%。在此期间，总运营利润为250亿美元，同比 增长18%，比我们的预测/摩根大通一致预期高出2%-1%。剔除总额为24亿美元的三项 一次性特殊费用，运营利润将比预期高出10%。2025年第四季度AWS收入同比增长加 速至23.6%（2025年第三季度：20.2%；2024年第四季度：18.9%），比预期高出2个 百分点，受供应限制放宽（但仍存在）的推动。对于2025年，总收入同比增长12%至7 169亿美元，运营利润同比增长17%至800亿美元。管理层预计2026年第一季度预期收 入为1735-1785亿美元（预期：1755亿美元），意味着同比增长11%-15%。同时，管 理层预计运营利润为165-215亿美元（预期：222亿美元），2026年预期资本支出为20 0 ...

2026 年 2 月 08 日│美国 互联网 亚马逊 4Q 业绩：收入同增 13.6%至 2134 亿美元，超 VA 一致预期 1%（下 同）。北美、国际、AWS 营收分别同增 10%、17%、24%，对应经营利润 率同比+1/-1/-1.9pct。4Q 经营利润剔除非经常损益后 274 亿美元（超预期 4%），净利润同增 6%至 212 亿美元。4Q 资本开支达到 385 亿美元，超预 期 12%。尽管 4Q 云增速和行业差距扩大（对比谷歌云、微软智能云 +48/29%yoy），我们认为应更多关注中长期催化：①Anthropic 已开始使用 Rainier 进行模型训练，叠加近期 AWS EC2 上调价格，强劲需求有望支撑 AWS 在 26 年加速增长；②亚马逊正与 OpenAI 洽谈至多 500 亿美元的潜 在投资，后续有望引入 OpenAI 定制化模型至其 AI 产品（例如智能语音助 手 Alexa）；③Agentic 购物渗透有望加速，公司亦计划引入更多三方智能 助手；近期 Cowork 及集成 Gemini 的 Chrome 已对用户渗透形成推动。维 持"增持"评级。 26 年 Capex 指引同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Amazon with a target price of $260 [6]. Core Insights - Amazon's Q4 revenue increased by 13.6% year-over-year to $213.4 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by 1% [1]. - The company reported a Q4 operating profit of $27.4 billion, which was 4% above expectations, and a net profit increase of 6% to $21.2 billion [1]. - Capital expenditures for Q4 reached $38.5 billion, surpassing expectations by 12% [1]. - Concerns arose regarding cash flow and high valuation due to a significant increase in 2026 Capex guidance to $200 billion, compared to the expected $147.5 billion [2]. - AWS revenue growth was 24% year-over-year, although it lagged behind competitors like Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure [3]. - The company is focusing on high-end organic grocery products through its Whole Foods brand, with plans to open over 100 new stores in the coming years [4]. - Adjustments to revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were made, reflecting a slowdown in AWS growth and increased capital expenditures [5]. Financial Performance - Q4 operating margin was reported at 11.3%, with a net margin of 10.7% [18]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $137.5 billion and $178.5 billion, aligning with expectations [2]. - The annualized revenue for AWS is projected to exceed $100 billion, with significant contributions from self-developed chips like Trainium and Graviton [3]. - The report anticipates a decrease in net profit margins due to increased capital expenditures and depreciation [5]. Business Segments - North American e-commerce revenue grew by 10%, while international e-commerce revenue increased by 17% [4]. - The grocery business is transitioning to focus on high-end organic products, with a total annual sales exceeding $150 billion [4]. - The AI shopping assistant Rufus has expanded its user base to over 300 million, significantly increasing transaction probabilities for users [15]. Future Outlook - The report projects Amazon's revenue for 2026 to be $806 billion, with net profit expected to reach $84 billion [8]. - The company is investing heavily in its Leo project, which aims to provide low-orbit satellite internet services, enhancing its cloud offerings [15]. - AWS is expected to enter a new pricing cycle, with recent price increases for EC2 instances indicating strong demand for cloud services [10].

Core Insights - Amazon.com (AMZN) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.95 per share, a 5% increase year-over-year, but fell short of consensus estimates by 1.52% [1] - Net sales reached $213.4 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, exceeding management's guidance and consensus estimates [2] - The company's net income was $21.2 billion, up 6% year-over-year, while operating income was impacted by special charges totaling $2.4 billion [3] Financial Performance - Product sales increased 9% year-over-year to $90 billion, while service sales rose 17% to $123.4 billion [4] - AWS revenues grew 24% year-over-year to $35.6 billion, marking the fastest growth rate in 13 quarters [5] - Operating income was reported at $25 billion, which included special charges; excluding these, it would have been $27.4 billion [3][26] Segment Performance - North America revenues rose 10% year-over-year to $127.1 billion, while international revenues increased 17% to $50.7 billion [4] - AWS segment operating income was $12.5 billion, up 17% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 35% [27] Advertising and Third-Party Sales - Sales from advertising services increased 22% year-over-year to $21.3 billion, reflecting strong performance in digital advertising [8] - Sales generated by third-party seller services rose 11.2% year-over-year to $52.8 billion, with worldwide paid units growing 12% [7] AI and Cloud Innovations - AWS's custom chips business has an annual revenue run rate of over $10 billion, growing at triple-digit percentages [16] - Amazon introduced Graviton5, its most advanced CPU for cloud workloads, which is up to 40% more price-performant than leading x86 processors [19] Delivery and Logistics - Amazon achieved record delivery speeds for Prime members, with nearly 70% more items delivered same day compared to the previous year [23] - The company expanded its ultra-fast delivery services to various regions, including India and Mexico [24] Capital Expenditures and Guidance - Amazon plans to invest approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily for AWS, a significant increase from $125 billion in 2025 [30] - For Q1 2026, Amazon anticipates net sales between $173.5 billion and $178.5 billion, reflecting 11% to 15% growth year-over-year [31]

智通财经APP获悉，日前，亚马逊(AMZN.US)召开了FY25Q4财报电话会。公司表示，计划在2026年投 入约2000亿美元资本支出，其中大部分投向需求旺盛的AWS，以承载客户核心业务与AI工作负载，并 以最快速度将新增算力转化为收益。 公司称，积压订单达2440亿美元，同比增长40%，环比增长22%。还有很多交易正在推进，目前对 AWS(包括AI和核心AWS)的需求非常大。支出的资本和拥有的产能绝大部分由外部客户消耗。 AWS第四季度营业利润率为35%，同比上升40个基点。该利润率会随时间波动，肯定会受到AI投资及 相应资本支出折旧的影响，但也会通过效率和成本降低来努力抵消。 公司指出，企业重新聚焦从本地向云端的迁移，核心非AI工作负载持续强劲增长。同时，为降低AI推 理成本，公司自主研发了定制化芯片Trainium。已交付超过140万颗Trainium2芯片，性价比优于同类 GPU30%-40%，形成年化数十亿美元营收规模。Trainium3需求强劲，在2026年中前的产能已被全部预 订。 Trainium3已开始发货，其性价比比Trainium2高出40%，市场兴趣浓厚，预计今年年中前后几乎所有供 ...

在刚刚结束的2025年第四季度财报电话会上，尽管 亚马逊AWS跑出了三年最快增速 ，但市场被一个数字 吓懵了—— 2026年预计约2000亿美元的资本开支 。这个数字不仅比分析师预期的这一水平高出近40%， 更是超过了谷歌刚刚宣布的 1850亿美元上限 。 在美股科技股正经历"AI恐慌"与杀估值的敏感时刻，亚马逊的这一指引引发了盘后股价超11%的剧烈震 荡。然而，在长达一个小时的电话会议中，亚马逊高管团队，特别是CEO Andy Jassy，用了大量篇幅来 论证这种激进投入的必要性，并在自研芯片、AI变现逻辑以及与OpenAI的合作等方面释放了大量增量信 息。 尽管AWS积压订单激增40%至2440亿美元，但市场被亚马逊2026年预计2000亿美元的天量资本开支吓退，股价盘后大 跌11%。CFO预警低轨卫星项目将在Q1带来10亿美元额外成本，严重拖累利润指引。但CEO辩护称巨额投入并非"唐吉 诃德式狂想"，强调AI产能"只要安装就能变现"，并押注AI代理重塑电商体验。 硬·AI 作者 | 龙 玥 编辑 | 硬 AI 01 2000亿美元花在哪？ "我们在拼命地安装产能" Andy Jassy明确表示，这200 ...

Core Insights - Amazon plans to invest approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures by 2026, primarily focused on AWS to enhance AI and core cloud workloads [1] - The company aims to leverage its infrastructure to improve shopping experiences, making them faster and more frequent across its Stores and grocery segments [2] Investment in AI and Cloud - CEO Andy Jassy emphasized the rapid monetization of AI capacity, stating that every customer experience will be reinvented with AI, necessitating cloud-based data and applications [3] - The enterprise value from AI will largely come from "agents," with a focus on trust and governance in data connections [4] Retail and Grocery Growth - Everyday Essentials category grew nearly twice as fast as other categories in the U.S. in 2025, accounting for one-third of units sold, with Amazon becoming a significant grocery player with over $150 billion in gross sales [5] - Same-day grocery delivery has been highlighted as a key driver, with customers using this service shopping more than twice as often as those who do not [5] Delivery and Operational Efficiency - 2025 marked Amazon's fastest year for Prime delivery globally, with nearly 70% more same-day items delivered compared to the previous year [6] - The company has over a million robots in its fulfillment network, which aids in reducing costs and improving delivery speeds [7] Financial Performance - Amazon reported net sales of $213.4 billion for the quarter, a 14% year-over-year increase, with North America revenue at $127.1 billion (+10%) and AWS revenue at $35.6 billion (+24%) [7] - Operating income reached $25 billion, and net income was $21.2 billion, translating to $1.95 per diluted share [7]