Retirement Planning - The Retirement Forum offers actionable ideas, a high-yield safe retirement portfolio, and macroeconomic outlooks to help maximize capital and income [1] - The forum searches the entire market to help maximize returns for retirement planning [1] Energy Transfer (ET) Overview - Energy Transfer is one of the largest midstream companies globally, with a market value of nearly $70 billion [2] - The company's share price has steadily increased since late 2020 lows of around $5 per share, driven by continued business investments [2] Investment Strategy - The Value Portfolio focuses on building retirement portfolios using a fact-based research strategy [2] - The strategy includes extensive analysis of 10Ks, analyst commentary, market reports, and investor presentations [2] - The portfolio manager invests real money in the stocks recommended [2]

Background and Expertise - The author has a strong IT background and has been managing a family portfolio in the US stock market for seven years, gaining confidence in investment decisions through mastering fundamental analysis [1] - The author's hands-on experience has provided a deep understanding of risk, reward, and the balance between these variables, which is valuable for analyzing technology stocks and other sectors [1] - The author aims to share insights and contribute to the investor community through clear and precise articles, accessible to investors of all experience levels [1] Investment Perspective - The author has a beneficial long position in ET through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives, reflecting a positive outlook on the company [2] - The author's articles are based on personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation or business relationships with mentioned companies [2] Platform Context - Seeking Alpha's analysts include both professional and individual investors, and their views may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole [3] - Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker, or investment adviser, and its analysts may not be licensed or certified by any regulatory body [3]

Energy Transfer's Performance and Growth - Energy Transfer's units soared 42% last year and continued to rally in early 2024, pushing its unit price above $20 [1] - The company expected to generate between $15.3 billion and $15.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2024, a 12% increase from 2023 [2] - Growth was fueled by expansion projects, acquisitions, and strong market conditions, including deals for Lotus Midstream ($1.5 billion), Crestwood Equity Partners ($7.1 billion), and WTG Midstream ($3.1 billion) [3] - The company reported volume records across several categories in the third quarter [3] Expansion Projects and Market Opportunities - Energy Transfer secured several new organic expansion projects, including the $2.7 billion Hugh Brinson Pipeline, which will provide additional natural gas transportation capacity from the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast [4] - The company has several potential projects under development to support growing natural gas demand, driven by AI data centers and other factors [4] - Forecasters expect U S electricity demand to accelerate over the coming decades, powered by AI data centers, electric vehicles, and onshoring of manufacturing, providing multiple opportunities for Energy Transfer to expand its natural gas pipeline system [9] Valuation and Financial Profile - Energy Transfer trades at a bottom-of-the-barrel valuation compared to its peers in the midstream sector, with a high distribution yield of 6 4% [5][6] - The company has a strong investment-grade balance sheet, with a leverage ratio in the lower half of its target range of 4 to 4 5 times, and one of the lowest dividend payout ratios in the space at around 50% of its cash flow [7] - Energy Transfer's growth prospects have strengthened, with a few billion dollars of organic expansion projects under construction and several more under development, including the Lake Charles LNG export terminal [8][9] Strategic Acquisitions and Future Growth - Energy Transfer has the financial flexibility to continue consolidating the midstream sector and is always on the lookout for accretive acquisitions that enhance its strategic position [10] - The company expects to grow its distribution by 3% to 5% per year, supported by its strong financial profile and visible growth opportunities [11] - Energy Transfer remains a compelling buy above $20 per unit, offering a high-yielding distribution and a still-cheap valuation [11]

Analyst Background - The analyst is a full-time professional with a focus on a wide range of stocks, offering unique insights and contrasting views based on their background [1] - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in TSM through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives, and the article reflects their personal opinions [2] Disclosure and Purpose - The analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered professional investment advice [3] - Seeking Alpha's disclosure emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results and no specific investment recommendations are made [4] Analyst Relationship - The analyst has no business relationship with any company mentioned in the article and is not receiving compensation for the analysis other than from Seeking Alpha [2]

Performance Overview - Energy Transfer's units surged 42% in 2024, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 23% return [1] - Including cash distributions and reinvestment, Energy Transfer's total return reached almost 54%, compared to the S&P 500's 25% total return [1] Growth Drivers - The company closed two acquisitions in 2023 (Lotus Midstream and Crestwood Equity Partners), contributing to its growth [2] - Energy Transfer acquired WTG Midstream in July 2024, expected to increase distributable cash flow by $0.04 per unit in 2024 and $0.07 by 2027 [3] - The $2.7 billion Hugh Brinson Pipeline, set to come online by the end of 2026, will provide additional gas takeaway capacity in the Permian Basin [3] Financial Performance - Record volumes across several areas during the third quarter of 2024 [4] - The company is on track to deliver 12% earnings growth at the midpoint of its guidance range [4] - Distribution increased by 3.2% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2024 [4] Future Prospects - Energy Transfer secured Chevron as a customer for its proposed Lake Charles LNG project, bringing the long-delayed export terminal closer to reality [5] - AI data centers are emerging as a potential growth catalyst, driving the expansion of the natural gas pipeline network to meet increased electricity demand [5] - The company expects to continue securing new expansion projects and has additional upside catalysts, including potential new projects and a unit repurchase program [6] Momentum for 2025 - Energy Transfer enters 2025 with strong momentum, supported by the accretive acquisition of WTG Midstream and several completed expansion projects [6] - Additional expansion projects are expected to enter service by mid-2025, providing incremental income [6] - The company trades at a bottom-of-the-barrel valuation compared to peers, yielding 6.5% even after last year's rally [6]

Dividend and Distribution - Energy Transfer pays a quarterly distribution of $0 3225, resulting in a forward yield of 6 5% [4] - The distribution is well covered by distributable cash flow (DCF), with a coverage ratio of 1 8 times last quarter [4] - The company plans to grow its distribution by 3% to 5% annually and aims to buy back stock once its leverage target is achieved [5] Growth Opportunities - Energy Transfer owns one of the largest integrated midstream systems in the U S, with significant expansion opportunities [6] - The company forecasts spending between $2 8 billion and $3 billion on growth projects in 2024, with potential to add $375 million to $500 million in annual EBITDA [6][7] - Increased power needs from artificial intelligence have led to inbound interest from power plants and data centers, with a new $2 7 billion natural gas pipeline project announced [8] Valuation - Energy Transfer trades at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 8 4 times 2024 analyst estimates, one of the lowest among midstream MLPs [12] - Midstream MLPs historically traded at an average EV/EBITDA multiple of 13 7 between 2011 and 2016, indicating Energy Transfer is below historical levels [13] - Analysts project the company to generate $16 9 billion in EBITDA by 2026, up from $15 9 billion in 2024 [13]

Investment Strategy - Focuses on identifying growth investing opportunities with attractive risk/reward upside potential [2] - Combines sharp price action analysis with fundamentals investing [2] - Avoids overhyped and overvalued stocks while capitalizing on battered stocks with significant upside recovery possibilities [2] Investment Group - Runs the investing group Ultimate Growth Investing, specializing in high-potential opportunities across various sectors [3] - Focuses on ideas with strong growth potential and well-beaten contrarian plays, with an 18 to 24 month outlook [3] - Targets growth stocks with robust fundamentals, buying momentum, and turnaround plays at highly attractive valuations [3] Analyst Recognition - Recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst [1] - Recognized by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP [1] - Demonstrates outperformance with picks that generate alpha well above the S&P 500 [1]

Energy Transfer LP (NYSE: ET) Analysis - The author has been a steadfast bull on Energy Transfer LP (NYSE: ET) stock for the past ~2 years [1] - The author's core style is to provide actionable and unambiguous investment ideas based on independent research [1] - The author's service, Envision Early Retirement, provides at least 1x in-depth articles per week on such investment ideas [1] Performance of Author's Investment Service - The author's service has helped members not only beat the S&P 500 but also avoid heavy drawdowns despite extreme volatilities in both the equity and bond markets [2] - The service offers a 100% Risk-Free trial for potential members to evaluate its proven method [2]

Energy Transfer's Investment Performance - Energy Transfer's current distribution yield is over 6.5%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's dividend yield of 1.2% [1] - The MLP's unit price has increased from $13.67 to $19.60 over the past five years, representing a 45% gain or 7.7% annualized return [2] - A $1,000 investment in Energy Transfer five years ago would have grown to $1,448 based on unit price appreciation alone [2] Distribution Impact on Total Returns - Energy Transfer cut its distribution by 50% during the pandemic but has since rebuilt it to exceed pre-pandemic levels [3] - Including distribution income and assuming dividend reinvestment, Energy Transfer's total return increases to 129.6% (18.1% annualized) [4] - A $1,000 investment with reinvested distributions would have grown to $2,296, outperforming the S&P 500's $1,988 return under similar conditions [5] Future Growth Potential - Energy Transfer plans to grow its distribution payout by 3% to 5% annually, potentially supporting continued market-beating returns [6] - The MLP's high-yielding distribution significantly impacts its total returns, contributing to its strong performance relative to the broader market [6]

Investment Strategy - The investment service focuses on income-producing asset classes that provide sustainable portfolio income, diversification, and inflation hedging [1] - The approach emphasizes buying cashflow-producing assets rather than chasing growth stocks with high valuations, targeting long-term income investors [2] Analyst Background - The analyst has over 14 years of investment experience and holds an MBA in Finance, with a focus on defensive stocks and medium- to long-term investment horizons [2] Portfolio Holdings - The analyst holds beneficial long positions in ET and LADR through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [3]