Group 1 - Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) is considered one of the most attractive investment opportunities in the market due to its cheap shares on an absolute basis [1] - The focus of Crude Value Insights is on cash flow and companies that generate it, highlighting value and growth prospects with real potential in the oil and natural gas sector [1] Group 2 - Subscribers have access to a 50+ stock model account, in-depth cash flow analyses of exploration and production (E&P) firms, and live chat discussions about the sector [2] - A two-week free trial is available for new subscribers to explore the oil and gas investment opportunities [3]

I'm a full time value investor and writer who enjoys using classical value ratios to pick my portfolio. My previous working background is in private credit and CRE mezzanine financing for a family office. I'm also a fluent Mandarin speaker in both business and court settings, previously serving as a court interpreter. I have spent a good chunk of my adult working life in China and Asia. I have worked with top CRE developers in the past including The Witkoff Group , Kushner Companies, Durst Organization and ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. export restrictions on ethane, primarily aimed at limiting ethylene production, may not effectively restrict supply due to the availability of alternative production methods and diversified capacity in the industry [2][11]. Ethane Production and Export - Ethane is a byproduct of shale gas and oil production, with U.S. ethane production expected to reach 59.2 million tons in 2024, growing at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.5% over the past five years [3][5]. - The majority of separated ethane is utilized domestically for ethylene production, with an estimated 48.3 million tons per year, while around 10.2 million tons per year is exported [3][6]. - Major U.S. ethane exporters, Enterprise Products and Energy Transfer, have significant export capacities, with Enterprise Products at 5 million tons per year and Energy Transfer at 1.5 million tons per year [7]. Impact of Export Restrictions - The recent requirement for export licenses has led to the rejection of export applications, including 2.2 million barrels (approximately 130,000 tons) from Enterprise Products [1][6]. - The export restrictions may lead to increased ethane being reinjected into natural gas systems, with an estimated 17.5 million tons expected to be reinjected in 2024 [5][4]. - The restrictions could negatively impact U.S. oil and gas investment returns in the long term, as the industry relies on maximizing economic benefits through exports [2][11]. China's Ethylene Production and Demand - China imports approximately 4.7 million tons of ethane from the U.S. in 2024, which is used solely for ethylene production, accounting for only 7.8% of China's total ethylene output [7][8]. - The majority of China's ethylene production relies on naphtha cracking and coal/methanol routes, which together constitute over 85% of the production methods [8]. Flexibility in Raw Material Sourcing - Chinese ethylene production facilities are designed for raw material flexibility, allowing them to switch to propane, butane, or light naphtha in response to supply uncertainties from U.S. ethane exports [9]. - Ethane cracking is economically advantageous, with lower investment intensity and higher ethylene yield compared to naphtha cracking [10]. Long-term Outlook - The ongoing U.S. export restrictions may inadvertently harm American exporters more than intended, as significant investments have been made in expanding export facilities [11][12]. - A potential resolution to the export restrictions could benefit both U.S. and Chinese companies, aligning with global trade principles and maximizing overall welfare [12].

Core Insights - Energy Transfer LP (ET) has significant exposure to the Chinese ethane market through its Orbit joint venture with Satellite Petrochemical, making China a crucial destination for ET's ethane exports [1][9] - New licensing requirements from the U.S. Commerce Department, effective May 2025, introduce uncertainty regarding existing agreements and future shipment volumes to China [2][9] - The licensing rule could delay or block ethane shipments, posing risks to ET's operations and revenues, especially at its Mont Belvieu and Nederland export terminals [2][9] Licensing Impact - Energy Transfer is preparing to apply for the necessary export licenses and is assessing the potential impact of denied or delayed authorizations on export volumes and revenue streams related to China [3] - Other ethane exporters, such as Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Phillips 66 (PSX), may also face challenges due to the new licensing requirements, with EPD already experiencing a notice of intent to refuse export licenses for shipments to China [5][6] Financial Performance - ET's stock has increased by 3.2% over the past three months, contrasting with a 4.3% decline in the Zacks Oil and Gas - Production Pipeline - MLB industry [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth for ET of 12.5% in 2025 and 1.88% in 2026, with current estimates for earnings per unit at $1.44 for 2025 and $1.47 for 2026 [12][13] Valuation Metrics - ET's current trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio is 10.18X, which is lower than the industry average of 11.08X, suggesting that the company is undervalued compared to its peers [14][16] - Enterprise Products Partners is also trading at a discount with an EV/EBITDA of 10.07X [16] Zacks Rank - Energy Transfer holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook compared to other stocks in the market [17]

Group 1: Company Overview - Energy Transfer and Enterprise Products Partners are two of the largest midstream companies in North America, primarily operating within the United States [2] - Both companies generate revenue by charging fees for the use of their energy infrastructure assets, such as pipelines, which are essential for transporting oil and natural gas [5] Group 2: Performance and Reliability - Energy Transfer has a history of disappointing investors, including a distribution cut during the 2020 pandemic and a previous warning about a potential dividend cut in 2016 [7][10] - In contrast, Enterprise Products Partners has maintained its distribution without cuts during the same downturns and has increased its distribution for 26 consecutive years, demonstrating reliability [12] Group 3: Financial Health - Enterprise Products Partners has an investment-grade rated balance sheet and a distributable cash flow that covers its distribution by 1.7 times in 2024, indicating strong financial health and management commitment [13][14] - Energy Transfer's past decisions, such as selling convertible securities to protect its CEO from dividend cuts, have raised concerns about its management practices and investor trust [9]

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its significant growth potential, solid financial health, and attractive valuation, especially as its stock is currently trading down nearly 20% from its recent high [1] Group 1: Growth Opportunities - Energy Transfer has established one of the largest integrated midstream systems in the U.S., which allows it to capitalize on rising volumes and price spreads across the energy value chain [2] - The company is focusing on growth, planning to spend approximately $5 billion in capital expenditures this year, up from $3 billion in 2024, with major projects like the Hugh Brinson pipeline aimed at meeting increasing natural gas demand [5] - Energy Transfer is also ready to make a final investment decision on its Lake Charles LNG facility, having signed a deal to fund 30% of the construction costs [6] Group 2: Financial Position - The company has improved its financial standing significantly, with its distribution now above pre-2020 levels and a leverage ratio at the low end of its target range of 4 to 4.5 times adjusted EBITDA [8] - Approximately 90% of Energy Transfer's EBITDA is expected to come from fee-based services this year, providing insulation from commodity price fluctuations [9] - The current quarterly distribution is $0.3275 per share, yielding 7.3%, with management targeting annual growth of 3% to 5% in distributions [10] Group 3: Valuation - Energy Transfer is trading at a forward enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple of just 8, significantly lower than the historical average of 13.7 for midstream MLPs between 2011 and 2016 [11]

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its high cash distributions and growth potential, with a current yield of approximately 7.5%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's yield of less than 1.5% [1] Growth Profile - The company is engaged in several organic expansion projects expected to drive accelerated earnings growth in 2026 and 2027, supported by a robust pipeline of future growth opportunities [2] - Energy Transfer anticipates adjusted EBITDA between $16.1 billion and $16.5 billion for the current year, reflecting a growth rate of about 5% compared to the previous year, although this is a decrease from the 13% growth rate achieved last year [4] Capital Investment - The company is investing $5 billion in organic capital projects this year, an increase from $3 billion last year, which includes natural gas processing plants and pipeline expansions [5] - Many projects are set to come online in the latter half of this year and through 2026, with significant earnings growth expected from these initiatives [6] Expansion Projects - Energy Transfer has sold out capacity for phase one of the Hugh Brinson Pipeline and is negotiating for phase two, indicating strong demand for its services [8] - The company is making progress on its Lake Charles LNG export terminal, having signed multiple long-term agreements for LNG supply, which could lead to a positive Final Investment Decision by the end of this year [9] Market Opportunities - The company is pursuing opportunities to supply natural gas to power companies and data centers, having received requests from over 60 power plants and around 200 data centers, positioning it well to meet rising electricity demand [10] Investment Appeal - Energy Transfer offers a combination of lucrative income and a strengthening earnings growth profile, making it a compelling investment opportunity for those willing to navigate the complexities of MLP taxation [11]

With just one subscription to Beyond the Wall Investing , you can save thousands of dollars a year on equity research reports from banks. You'll keep your finger on the pulse and have access to the latest and highest-quality analysis of this type of information.So far, I've written 2 articles on Energy Transfer LP Common Units (NYSE: ET ), both with a "Buy rating. My first one came out in early November 2024 , calling to buy the stockHe leads the investing group Beyond the Wall Investing with features that ...

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer LP has seen a 3.8% increase in shares over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend leading up to the next earnings release [1] Estimates Movement - Estimates for Energy Transfer LP have trended upward over the past month, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [2] VGM Scores - Energy Transfer LP holds a strong Growth Score of A, but lags in Momentum Score with a D. The stock has an A grade on the value side, placing it in the top 20% for this investment strategy, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of A [3] Outlook - The upward trend in estimates suggests a promising outlook for Energy Transfer LP, which has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating expectations for above-average returns in the coming months [4] Industry Performance - Energy Transfer LP is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Production Pipeline - MLB industry. Another player in this sector, Enterprise Products Partners, has gained 1.7% over the past month [5] Enterprise Products Financials - Enterprise Products reported revenues of $15.42 billion for the last quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.5%. The EPS for the same period was $0.64, slightly down from $0.66 a year ago. The expected EPS for the current quarter is $0.67, indicating a year-over-year change of 4.7% [6] Enterprise Products Outlook - The estimate revisions for Enterprise Products translate into a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with a VGM Score of A, indicating a stable outlook [7]

Growth investors focus on stocks that are seeing above-average financial growth, as this feature helps these securities garner the market's attention and deliver solid returns. But finding a great growth stock is not easy at all.That's because, these stocks usually carry above-average risk and volatility. In fact, betting on a stock for which the growth story is actually over or nearing its end could lead to significant loss.However, the Zacks Growth Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), whic ...