Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a dominant theme in the stock market, with companies being rewarded for their ambitious AI plans and data leadership [1] - This earnings season, heavy capital expenditure (capex) plans have taken precedence over headline earnings results, raising concerns among investors [2] Group 1: AI Spending Trends - Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are committing to a significant increase in AI-related spending, primarily focused on data centers, GPUs, and cloud infrastructure [2][3] - These four companies are expected to collectively spend over $650 billion on AI-focused capex this year, marking one of the largest single-year investment increases in the technology sector [3] - The shift towards heavy upfront spending for AI infrastructure is causing near-term pressure on margins and free cash flow (FCF), with some analysts predicting negative FCF for certain companies [4] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - **Alphabet (GOOGL)**: Plans to spend $175-$185 billion on capex in 2026, nearly double the previous year, focusing on AI compute and cloud infrastructure. Concerns about financial strain are rising as long-term debt increased to $46.5 billion [5][6] - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Expected to invest about $200 billion in capex in 2026, a 53% increase from last year, primarily for AWS data centers and AI infrastructure. Analysts predict negative FCF for Amazon this year [7][8] - **Meta (META)**: Shifting focus from the metaverse to AI, with expected capex of $115-$135 billion in 2026. Analysts forecast a nearly 90% fall in FCF, raising concerns about the company's financial health [11][12] - **Microsoft (MSFT)**: Spent approximately $72 billion on capex in the first half of fiscal 2026, with an annualized run rate of over $140 billion. Analysts expect a 28% drop in FCF this year [12][13] - **Apple (AAPL)**: Distinct from peers, Apple plans to maintain a capex of around $13 billion, leveraging partnerships for AI features rather than heavy internal spending [14] - **Tesla (TSLA)**: Anticipates capex exceeding $20 billion this year, focusing on AI and autonomy amid cooling EV demand. Concerns arise regarding the execution risk and potential impact on near-term FCF [15][16] - **NVIDIA (NVDA)**: Positioned as a primary beneficiary of the AI spending cycle, benefiting immediately from the investments made by other companies in AI infrastructure [18] Group 3: Financial Implications - The AI buildout is historic in scale, reshaping the balance sheets and cash flow profiles of major tech companies, with many expected to see declining FCF and increased debt issuance [20] - The debate surrounding the timing, returns, and financial durability of these investments is ongoing, with execution becoming a critical factor for success in the next phase [20]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon is expected to spend approximately $200 billion on capital expenditures (capex) in 2026, which may impact its attractiveness as a long-term investment [1] Group 1: Investment Insights - The long-term return on a stock is closely tied to the underlying business's performance, with a business earning 6% on capital over 40 years yielding similar returns for investors [1] - A business that earns 18% on capital over 20 to 30 years can still provide good returns even if purchased at a high price [1] - The impact of taxes on investment returns is significant, with different tax payment structures leading to varying effective returns over long holding periods [1]

Core Insights - ams OSRAM reported Q4 results that exceeded the mid-point of guidance, indicating strong performance in the semiconductor sector [1] - The company achieved EUR 144 million in free cash flow (FCF) for FY25, showcasing effective cash management and operational efficiency [1] - A new EUR 200 million 'Simplify' transformation and savings program has been launched, aimed at enhancing operational effectiveness and profitability [1] Financial Performance - The 'Re-establish-the Base' program was completed one year ahead of schedule, contributing to improved profitability despite challenging market conditions [1] - The semiconductor core business grew in alignment with overall semiconductor market growth, reflecting the company's competitive positioning [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recommendation for United Airlines (UAL) is a buy rating, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [1] Group 1: Business Cycle and Revenue Mix - United Airlines is believed to have entered a new phase of its business cycle, which is expected to result in a structurally improved revenue mix and enhanced earnings [1] Group 2: Investment Approach - The investment strategy focuses on long-term investments while also considering short-term opportunities to uncover alpha [1] - The analysis is based on a bottom-up approach, emphasizing the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies [1] - The investment horizon is medium to long-term, targeting companies with solid fundamentals, sustainable competitive advantages, and growth potential [1]

Core Insights - First Commonwealth Financial reported a core EPS of $0.43 for Q4 2025, exceeding consensus estimates, with a net interest margin (NIM) of 3.98% and a core return on assets (ROA) of 1.45% [4][7] - The company anticipates a short-term dip in NIM of 5 to 10 basis points in Q1 2026, followed by gradual improvement to around 4% by the end of 2026 [1][7] Financial Performance - Spread income increased by $2.1 million from the prior quarter, primarily due to a 6 basis point rise in NIM, with earning-asset yields up 3 basis points and funding costs down 3 basis points [2] - Average deposits rose by 2.8% and total loans increased by 1.2% during the quarter, attributed to seasonal factors and larger commercial loan payoffs [3] Loan and Deposit Metrics - The bank designated approximately $225 million in commercial loans as held for sale, primarily from the Philadelphia market, with plans to reinvest proceeds into lower-yielding securities [9][10] - Deposit costs fell by 1 basis point to 1.83%, supporting the expansion of net interest income [3] Credit Quality - Non-performing loans (NPLs) rose to 94 basis points, totaling approximately $98 million, with reserves at 1.32% [6][13] - The provision for credit losses decreased to $7 million, down $4.3 million from the prior quarter, as the dealer floor plan credit issue neared resolution [12][14] Capital Management - The company repurchased $23.1 million of stock in Q4 2025, with an additional $25 million authorized for buybacks, funded by excess capital generation [17] - Core non-interest expenses increased by $1.7 million to $74.3 million, primarily due to salaries and benefits [16] Leadership Changes - Bank President and Chief Revenue Officer Jane Grebenc will retire at the end of March, marking a significant leadership transition [18]

Company Performance - Big Yellow Group Plc, a leader in the British self-storage market, is performing solidly [1] - The growth opportunities in the U.K. self-storage industry may be receding as the market becomes more developed [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core EPS for Q4 2025 was $0.43 per share, exceeding consensus estimates, with a net interest margin (NIM) of 3.98% and a core return on assets (ROA) of 1.45% [4] - Average deposits grew by 2.8% and total loans increased by 1.2% in Q4, while net interest income rose by $47.2 million year-over-year to $427.5 million [4][8] - The provision for credit losses decreased by $4.3 million to $7 million, with non-performing loans (NPLs) increasing by four basis points to 94 basis points [6][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fee income remained flat at 18% of total revenue, with gains in SBA offset by declines in wealth and mortgage services [6] - Core non-interest income for Q4 was $24.3 million, down $200,000 from the previous quarter, with an increase in SBA gain on sale income [15] - Core non-interest expense rose by $1.7 million to $74.3 million, primarily due to increased salaries and benefits [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average deposit growth for the year was 6.1%, with significant contributions from money market accounts and CDs [9] - The company reported a total of $98 million in non-performing loans, including $39.2 million in total SBA loans [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow fee income through its regional banking model and maintain a focus on low-cost deposit growth [10][96] - A portfolio of approximately $225 million in commercial loans was designated as held for sale, with plans to reinvest proceeds into lower-yielding securities [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining loan growth in 2026, despite elevated payoffs in the previous year [28] - The company anticipates a near-term dip in NIM due to rate cuts, followed by gradual improvement, projecting an end-of-year NIM of around 4% for 2026 [12][61] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $23.1 million of its stock in Q4 2025, totaling 2.1 million shares for the year [7] - Management highlighted the retirement of Jane Grebenc, a key figure in the company's strategic transformations [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Credit side impact and net charge-offs for 2026 - Management provided guidance of 25-30 basis points for charge-offs, with $1.5 million left to resolve on the dealer floor plan loan [20][21] Question: Loan growth expectations for 2026 - Management expects loan growth to continue at around 5-7%, with a strong pipeline in business banking and mortgage [28][29] Question: Buyback strategy and stock price sensitivity - The company will continue to repurchase shares using excess capital, with a sensitivity to stock price affecting the pace of buybacks [30][31] Question: NIM sustainability and deposit costs - Management indicated that NIM is projected to hover around 4% in 2026, with potential for further reductions in deposit costs [54][61]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core EPS for Q4 2025 was $0.43 per share, exceeding consensus estimates, with a net interest margin (NIM) of 3.98% and a core return on assets (ROA) of 1.45% [4] - Average deposits grew by 2.8% and total loans increased by 1.2% in Q4, with net interest income rising due to an expanded margin [4][15] - For the year 2025, core EPS was $1.53, up from the consensus estimate of $1.40, and net interest income reached $427.5 million, an increase of $47.2 million year-over-year [8][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fee income constituted 18% of total revenue, with a focus on growing this through a regional banking model, although it remained flat due to seasonal declines in wealth and mortgage services [6][9] - The provision for credit losses decreased by $4.3 million to $7 million, with non-performing loans (NPLs) increasing slightly to 94 basis points [6][7] - Core non-interest income for Q4 was $24.3 million, down $200,000 from the previous quarter, with SBA gain on sale income increasing but offset by declines in other areas [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average deposit growth for the year was 6.1%, with significant contributions from money market accounts and CDs, while non-interest-bearing deposits also increased [9] - The company reported a loan growth of 8.2% annualized for the year, with commercial banking and equipment finance leading the growth [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a focus on low-cost deposit growth and diversify its lending businesses, with a strategic exit from certain markets to concentrate resources elsewhere [10][13] - The acquisition of CenterBank was completed, contributing to overall deposit growth and positioning the company for future expansion [10][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a strong NIM, projecting it to drift upward to around 4% by the end of 2026, despite anticipated short-term dips due to rate cuts [12][38] - The company is focused on managing credit costs and maintaining strong reserve levels, with expectations for stability in provisions and charge-offs [21][22] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $23.1 million of its stock in Q4, with a total of 2.1 million shares repurchased in 2025 [7][16] - Management indicated that operational expenses are expected to increase by approximately 3% year-over-year, with a focus on maintaining operating leverage [16][40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Credit side impact and loan issues - Management provided guidance on charge-offs at 25-30 basis points and noted that the dealer floor plan loan issue is nearing resolution with a remaining balance of $2.5 million [20][21] Question: Loan growth expectations - Management expects loan growth to continue at a rate of 5-7%, despite elevated payoffs in the previous year [28][29] Question: Buyback strategy - The company will be cautious with buybacks, sensitive to stock price movements, and intends to utilize its capital effectively [30][31] Question: NIM sustainability - Management discussed the potential for NIM to hover around 4% in 2027, with expectations for deposit costs to decrease further [55][56] Question: Securities yields outlook - The securities portfolio is expected to yield around 4.5% to 4.75%, with opportunities for reinvestment as the portfolio rolls over [76][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core EPS for Q4 2025 was $0.43 per share, exceeding consensus estimates, with a net interest margin (NIM) of 3.98%, core ROA of 1.45%, and core efficiency ratio of 52.8% [4] - Average deposits and total loans grew by 2.8% and 1.2% respectively, while net interest income increased by $47.2 million year-over-year to $427.5 million [4][7] - The provision for credit losses decreased by $4.3 million to $7 million, with non-performing loans (NPLs) rising four basis points to 94 basis points [5][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fee income remained flat at 18% of total revenue, with gains in SBA offset by declines in wealth and mortgage [5] - Core non-interest income for Q4 was $24.3 million, down $200,000 from the previous quarter, with SBA gain on sale income increasing by $800,000 [14] - Core non-interest expense increased by $1.7 million to $74.3 million, primarily due to increased salaries and benefits [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average deposit growth for the year was 6.1%, with significant contributions from money market accounts and CDs [9] - The company reported $98 million in non-performing loans, including $39.2 million in total SBA loans [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow fee income through its regional banking model and maintain a focus on low-cost deposit growth [5][10] - A portfolio of approximately $225 million in commercial loans was designated as held for sale to improve liquidity and capital ratios [12][13] - The company plans to limit operating cost increases to approximately 3% year-over-year [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining loan growth despite seasonal headwinds and elevated payoffs, projecting continued growth in business banking and mortgage segments [28] - The guidance for NIM is expected to remain around 4% by the end of 2026, with a near-term dip anticipated due to rate cuts [12][40] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a balance between loan growth and capital generation, emphasizing disciplined capital deployment [31][32] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $23.1 million of its stock in Q4 2025, totaling 2.1 million shares for the year [6] - Jane Grebenc, Bank President and Chief Revenue Officer, will retire at the end of March 2026, marking a significant leadership transition [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for net charge-offs and provisions in 2026? - Management expects charge-off guidance to be 25-30 basis points, with $1.5 million left to resolve on the dealer floor plan loan [19][20] Question: Can we expect additional loans to be moved off the balance sheet in 2026? - Management indicated that the loan sale is more of a one-off situation, focusing resources on other markets [23][24] Question: What are the expectations for loan growth in 2026? - The company anticipates loan growth to continue at a similar pace as 2025, despite elevated payoffs [28][30] Question: How should we think about the stock buyback strategy? - The buyback strategy is sensitive to stock price, with intentions to utilize the authority aggressively while maintaining capital ratios [31][57] Question: What is the outlook for NIM and deposit costs? - Management expects a dip in NIM in Q1 2026, with a gradual recovery to around 4% by year-end [60][61]

NYSE: FCF Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made. First Commonwealth undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date the forward-looking statements are made. 3 4Q 2025 Earnings Release Webcast Presentation January 28, 2026 2 FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Certain statements contained in this release that are not historical facts may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Sec ...