Core Business Strength - Fair Isaac's primary business, credit scoring, remains highly profitable, with over 90% of top U.S. lenders utilizing the FICO score, giving it near-monopoly status [4][6] - In Q3 2025, revenue from the scoring business grew by 34% year over year, with an impressive operating margin of 88%, indicating a strong business model [5][6] - The company benefits from significant pricing power, as lenders rely on FICO scores for risk assessments, making it difficult to switch to alternatives without facing compliance issues [6][7] Software Business Expansion - Fair Isaac is diversifying into software solutions, particularly through its cloud-based FICO Platform, which automates various financial decision-making processes [9][10] - The platform opportunity is still in early stages, with less than half of the top 300 global financial institutions currently engaged, suggesting substantial growth potential [10] - Traditional non-platform software continues to generate solid cash flow, with a gradual transition expected towards platform-based solutions as customer needs evolve [11] Global Market Opportunities - Fair Isaac is looking to expand its presence in emerging markets, where demand for credit analytics is increasing as consumer lending systems mature [12][13] - The company's scoring system can be quickly implemented in countries with incomplete credit data, allowing for expansion beyond mature markets [13] - With a long-term presence in 40 countries, Fair Isaac's global push could diversify revenue streams and reduce reliance on the U.S. credit cycle [14] Investment Implications - Fair Isaac is at a pivotal point, with its legacy FICO Score driving significant revenue while new analytics platforms and global expansion present additional growth opportunities [15] - Long-term investors may view Fair Isaac as a reliable earnings engine and an evolving growth business, making it a stock worth monitoring [15]

Core Insights - Fair Isaac (FICO) is recognized primarily for its credit scoring, but its significant growth is now driven by AI-powered fraud detection and decision software [2][3] - The company has been ranked as a leader in enterprise fraud solutions for five consecutive years, highlighting its strong market position [5] - Fair Isaac's fraud solutions protect over 10,000 financial institutions globally, securing 4 billion payment cards across more than 80 countries, which enhances its data ecosystem for AI model training [9] Business Expansion - The integration of generative AI and agent-based AI into Fair Isaac's platform allows for real-time anomaly detection and autonomous action, improving fraud prevention effectiveness [6][7] - The launch of the FICO Marketplace enables customers to access AI models and third-party tools, creating new revenue opportunities estimated to add over $100 million annually [12][13] - Fair Isaac's blockchain-based AI governance framework addresses regulatory concerns around algorithmic transparency, positioning the company as a trusted provider [14] Investment Implications - The shift from credit scoring to AI-driven fraud prevention represents a durable second growth engine for Fair Isaac, which may not be fully appreciated by investors [15] - Long-term investors focused on the importance of AI in global finance should consider Fair Isaac stock as a valuable opportunity [16]

Core Insights - Fair Isaac reported strong Q3 fiscal 2025 results, with non-GAAP earnings of $8.57 per share, exceeding estimates by 10.87% and showing a year-over-year increase of 37.1% [2] - Revenues reached $536.4 million, surpassing consensus by 3.4% and reflecting a 19.8% year-over-year growth [2] - The company continues to enhance its product offerings, including the launch of FICO Score10 BNPL models, which integrate Buy-Now-Pay-Later data into credit scoring [7] Financial Performance - Software revenues increased by 2.8% year over year to $212.1 million, with software annual recurring revenues (ARR) growing by 4% [3][4] - The adjusted EBITDA rose by 31.9% year over year to $312.3 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 58.2% compared to 52.9% in the previous year [8] - Cash flow from operations was $286.2 million, up from $213.3 million in the prior-year period, and free cash flow increased to $276.2 million from $205.7 million [9][10] Revenue Breakdown - Scores, which account for 60.5% of total revenues, increased by 34.3% year over year to $324.3 million [2] - B2B scoring solutions saw a 42% year-over-year revenue increase, while B2C revenues grew by 6% [5] - Mortgage-originations revenues surged by 53% year over year, and auto-originations revenues increased by 23% [6] Guidance and Market Position - For fiscal 2025, Fair Isaac anticipates revenues of $1.98 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $29.15 per share [11] - Despite recent strong performance, there has been a downward trend in estimates, with a consensus estimate shift of -7.19% [12] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [14]

Core Viewpoint - Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO) has been a subject of significant debate recently, particularly following the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) announcement to introduce more competition in the market [1]. Company Analysis - FICO is positioned as a durable company with economic resilience, pricing power, and capital efficiency, which are essential traits for long-term value creation [1]. - The company operates within sectors such as Technology, Industrials, and Financials, focusing on scalable business models and mission-critical offerings [1]. - FICO's capital allocation strategies, margin trajectories, and unit economics are critical for assessing the sustainability of its growth and returns [1]. Market Context - The FHFA's move to increase competition may impact FICO's market dynamics, potentially affecting its competitive positioning and growth prospects [1].

Group 1 - Fair Isaac Corporation's stock has declined by over 45% from its all-time high in late 2024, indicating a significant drop in market value [1] - Despite the negative news surrounding Fair Isaac Corporation, there is a renewed interest in purchasing its stock, suggesting potential for recovery or undervaluation [1] Group 2 - Triba Research aims to identify high-quality businesses that can deliver sustainable, double-digit returns over the long term, focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages [2] - The strategy of Triba Research includes targeting firms operating in growing markets, maintaining low debt levels, and being led by skilled management teams [2] - The emphasis of Triba Research remains on long-term value creation while staying informed about the latest market developments [2]

Group 1: Near-Monopoly Stocks - The concept of near-monopolies can provide significant returns for investors, especially during uncertain economic cycles [1][2] - Examples of near-monopoly stocks include Copart Inc., ASML Holding, and Fair Isaac Corporation, which hold substantial market shares in their respective sectors [3] Group 2: Copart Inc. (CPRT) - Copart operates in the auto market, purchasing damaged vehicles from insurance companies, repairing them, and selling them at auctions, generating $4.7 billion in net revenue [4][5] - Copart holds approximately 40% market share in its field, positioning it as a near-monopoly [5] - Currently trading at 71% of its 52-week high, there is an expectation for price recovery, supported by institutional investment [6][7] Group 3: ASML Holding (ASML) - ASML is a leading company in lithography technology, essential for chipmaking, with minimal competition due to well-patented technology [8][9] - The stock is trading at 73% of its 52-week high, indicating potential for systemic buying as the industry surges [9][10] - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in ASML, reflecting confidence in its market position [10] Group 4: Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) - Fair Isaac is integral to the U.S. banking and lending system, managing credit scores that are crucial for issuing loans and credit [12][13] - The stock is currently trading at 57% of its 52-week high, with analysts projecting a price target of $2,163, indicating a potential upside of 56.4% [14][15] - The company commands a high valuation premium, suggesting strong market confidence in its ability to outperform peers [15][16]

Core Insights - Fair Isaac's stock has experienced a significant decline but has returned over 43,000% since the mid-1990s, indicating a long-term growth trajectory despite recent challenges [1][2] - The U.S. government's decision to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to use VantageScore has disrupted Fair Isaac's long-standing monopoly in the credit scoring market [2][7] - The stock's recent decline may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors, as the company remains fundamentally strong [3][13] Company Performance - Fair Isaac's FICO score is utilized by approximately 90% of top U.S. lenders and credit unions, and 95% of U.S. securitizations reference the FICO score for risk assessment [5][6] - The company's pricing strategy has come under scrutiny, with a recent increase in wholesale royalty prices from $3.50 to $4.95 per score, a rise of over 40% [7][8] - Despite the price increase, the cost of the FICO score is minimal compared to total mortgage closing costs, suggesting that lenders may not switch to alternative scoring systems for minor savings [8] Market Dynamics - The stock's valuation has adjusted from a peak price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 120, indicating a correction in overextended valuations [10][12] - Long-term earnings growth estimates for Fair Isaac are optimistic, projecting a 27% annualized growth rate, resulting in a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of about 2 [13] - The company has been actively buying back stock, having reduced its diluted share count by nearly 25% over the past decade, which supports earnings per share growth [15] Future Outlook - Fair Isaac's ability to maintain pricing power for its FICO scores will be crucial for future growth, although significant price increases like the recent 40% hike may not be expected [14] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from continued borrowing trends in the U.S. and abroad, leveraging its market leadership in credit scoring [14]

FICO's Business Performance - FICO experienced 20% growth overall, with 37% growth in the B2B portion of its scores business [4] - The scores business has demonstrated double-digit revenue and profit growth for several years [5] - FICO's volumes are approximately 40% below their peak [26] FHFA and Regulatory Issues - The FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) is allowing lenders to use different credit score models for mortgages sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [2] - The FHFA director, Bill Py, has referred to FICO as a monopoly [1] - FICO 10T is technically approved by the FHFA, but its implementation timeline is not the same as Vantage [19] - Concerns exist regarding the safety and soundness of the FHFA's approach [20] FICO 10T vs VantageScore - FICO 10T outperforms FICO Classic, with 18% fewer credit defaults [13] - FICO maintains over 90% market share in markets outside of government mandates [17] - In the non-conforming mortgage market, $313 billion in originations have been done with FICO 10T [18] - FICO scores cost $4.95 out of $6,000 in mortgage closing costs [21] FICO Classic and Market Stability - FICO Classic has been used for the last 20 years and is highly optimized [11] - The industry has models built on FICO Classic, and regulators use it for capital adequacy assessments [12] - FICO Classic has been stress-tested through the 2008 downturn [23][24]

Core Insights - Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 non-GAAP earnings of $8.57 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.87% and increasing 37.1% year over year [1][9] - Revenues reached $536.4 million, surpassing the consensus mark by 3.4% and growing 19.8% year over year, with contributions from the Americas (87%), EMEA (8%), and Asia Pacific (5%) [1][9] - Scores, which account for 60.5% of total revenues, rose 34.3% year over year to $324.3 million [1][9] Revenue Breakdown - Software revenues, including analytics and digital-decisioning technology, increased 2.8% year over year to $212.1 million [2] - Software Annual Recurring Revenues (ARR) grew 4% year over year, with platform ARR up 18% and non-platform ARR down 2% [3] - On-premises and SaaS Software, making up 35% of revenues, increased 2.2% year over year to $187.9 million [3] - Professional services revenues, accounting for 4.5% of total revenues, rose 7% year over year to $24.2 million [3] Scoring Solutions - Business-to-business (B2B) scoring solutions revenues surged 42% year over year, driven by higher unit prices and increased mortgage originations [4] - Business-to-consumer (B2C) scoring solutions revenues increased 6% year over year, supported by higher royalties from scores sold through credit reporting agencies [4] Origination Revenues - Mortgage-originations revenues increased 53% year over year [5] - Auto-originations revenues rose 23% year over year [5] - Credit card, personal loan, and other origination revenues grew 3% year over year [5] Strategic Initiatives - FICO launched FICO Score10 BNPL and FICO Score10T BNPL models, integrating Buy-Now-Pay-Later data into credit scoring, promoting financial inclusion globally [6] Operating Performance - Research and development expenses as a percentage of revenues decreased by 110 basis points year over year to 8.8% [7] - Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenues fell by 200 basis points year over year to 25.9% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA increased 31.9% year over year to $312.3 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 58.2% compared to 52.9% in the prior year [7] Financial Position - As of June 30, 2025, FICO had $189 million in cash and cash equivalents, with total debt at $2.8 billion [8] - Cash flow from operations was $286.2 million, up from $213.3 million in the prior year [8] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $276.2 million, compared to $205.7 million in the previous year [8] Guidance - FICO reiterated its fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting revenues of $1.98 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $29.15 per share [9][11] Share Repurchase - In the fiscal third quarter, FICO repurchased 284,000 shares [10]

View all Key Company Metrics for Fair Isaac here>>> Shares of Fair Isaac have returned -18.3% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.4% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating that it could perform in line with the broader market in the near term. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) - Platform: $254.2 million compared to the $259.2 million average estimate based on two analysts. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) - Total: $739.1 million versus the two-analyst average e ...