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Fico Stock To $1,000?
Forbes· 2025-05-22 14:34
Core Viewpoint - Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) stock has experienced a significant decline, dropping over 15% in one day and nearly 23% over two days, with a total decrease of about 30% from its December highs [1][2] Financial Performance - FICO's revenue growth is approximately 14%, which has improved from around 10% in previous years, but this growth does not justify the high valuation of 60 times cash flow [2][6] - The stock is currently trading at about $1,704 per share, reflecting a cash flow yield of approximately 1.6% [1] Valuation Concerns - FICO's high valuation is attributed to expanding margins, with operating and cash flow margins increasing from around 32% to nearly 40% [3] - The stock's high multiple is compared unfavorably to Nvidia, which trades at 50 times cash flow and has shown substantial revenue growth [1][2] Market Position and Pricing Power - FICO's pricing power is under scrutiny due to concerns raised by the Federal Housing and Finance Agency (FHFA), which may limit its ability to increase prices further [4][6] - FICO's monopoly-like position in the credit scoring market has allowed it to raise prices, but this may not be sustainable moving forward [4][6] Future Outlook - Revenue growth for FICO is expected to slow, and margins may compress, leading to a valuation more in line with other companies experiencing similar revenue growth [6] - The potential for increased lending activity, particularly in personal loans and mortgages, could positively impact FICO's revenues if market conditions improve [8][9] Comparative Analysis - The comparison of FICO with other high-valuation stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft serves to highlight the risk-reward tradeoff for investors considering FICO [9][10] - FICO's current valuation is deemed high relative to its growth prospects, suggesting that investors may need to reassess their expectations [10]
Fair Isaac: Fairly Valued After Stock Consolidation
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-22 12:09
Group 1 - The article highlights the volatility in the stock market, particularly focusing on Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO) as a surprising company amidst market fluctuations [1] - The author emphasizes a long-term investment strategy centered on growth and dividend growth, prioritizing profitability over low valuation [2] - Key metrics for evaluating stocks include margins, free cash flow stability and growth, and returns on invested capital [2] Group 2 - The author has a beneficial long position in FICO shares, indicating a personal investment interest in the company [3] - The article does not provide specific investment recommendations or guarantees regarding future performance [4]
Why Fair Isaac Stock Was Blasted Again on Wednesday
The Motley Fool· 2025-05-21 22:44
Core Viewpoint - Fair Isaac's stock experienced a significant decline, dropping nearly 16% in one trading session, which is substantially higher than the S&P 500's 1.6% decline, indicating a severe negative market reaction to recent criticisms of the company [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Fair Isaac's stock fell by almost 16% on Wednesday, marking a continuation of its downward trend after an 8% drop on Tuesday [1][2]. - The company's stock performance is being closely tied to external criticisms, particularly from Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, who has publicly criticized Fair Isaac's pricing practices [2][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Bill Pulte's comments suggest a potential shift in regulatory scrutiny towards Fair Isaac and the broader credit reporting industry, with implications for how these companies interact with mortgage providers [4]. - Pulte's remarks indicate a concern over rising costs for consumers associated with credit reports, which could lead to regulatory changes that may negatively impact Fair Isaac's business volume [4][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market's reaction to Fair Isaac's stock decline reflects investor sentiment that is wary of potential regulatory changes and their impact on the company's profitability [1][5]. - The current administration's approach to policy may create uncertainty for Fair Isaac, as there is a history of rhetoric not translating into immediate policy changes [5][6].
Fair Isaac Corporation: Rating Upgrade As I See Long-Term Growth Runway Ahead
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-14 11:18
Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or ...
金十图示:2025年05月13日(周二)全球主要科技与互联网公司市值变化
news flash· 2025-05-13 02:59
Market Capitalization Changes - Tesla's market capitalization increased by 6.75% to $1,025.4 billion [3] - TSMC's market capitalization rose by 5.93% to $969.7 billion [3] - Tencent's market capitalization grew by 4.66% to $609.8 billion [3] - Netflix's market capitalization decreased by 2.65% to $472.3 billion [3] - Oracle's market capitalization increased by 4.58% to $440.8 billion [3] Notable Performers - Shopify saw a significant increase of 13.7% in market capitalization, reaching $136.2 billion [4] - AppLovin experienced a remarkable rise of 89% to $1.177 billion [4] - AMD's market capitalization increased by 5.13% to $175.3 billion [5] - Uber's market capitalization rose by 6.39% to $184.2 billion [5] Decliners - Pinduoduo's market capitalization fell by 6.14% to $165.2 billion [4] - Xiaomi's market capitalization decreased by 2.11% to $163.4 billion [4] - Spotify's market capitalization declined by 4.23% to $127.3 billion [4] Other Companies of Interest - Adobe's market capitalization increased by 3.3% to $168.7 billion [4] - Qualcomm's market capitalization rose by 4.78% to $167.0 billion [4] - Intel's market capitalization increased by 3.55% to $96.7 billion [5] - Airbnb's market capitalization grew by 5.64% to $828 million [5]
Fair Isaac Q2 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y, Shares Fall
ZACKS· 2025-04-30 17:36
Core Insights - Fair Isaac (FICO) reported second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings of $7.81 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.68% and showing a year-over-year increase of 27.2% [1] - Revenues reached $498.7 million, surpassing the consensus mark by 0.51% and increasing 15% year over year, with contributions from the Americas (86%), EMEA (9%), and Asia Pacific (5%) [1] Financial Performance - Software revenues rose 2.4% year over year to $201.7 million, driven by higher license revenue [3] - Software Annual Recurring Revenues (ARR) grew 3% year over year, with platform ARR increasing by 17% and non-platform declining by 3% [4] - Scores revenues increased 25.4% year over year to $297 million, with B2B revenues up 31% and B2C revenues up 6% [5] - Mortgage originations revenues surged 48% year over year, accounting for 54% of B2B revenues and 44% of total scores revenues [6] Operating Metrics - Research and development expenses as a percentage of revenues decreased by 40 basis points to 9% [8] - Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenues fell by 140 basis points to 24.1% [8] - Adjusted EBITDA increased 21.6% year over year to $287.8 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 57.7% [8] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of March 31, 2025, FICO had $146.6 million in cash and cash equivalents and total debt of $2.5 billion, compared to $184.3 million in cash and $2.4 billion in debt as of December 31, 2024 [11] - Cash flow from operations was $74.9 million, down from $194 million in the previous quarter, with free cash flow at $65.5 million compared to $186.8 million in the prior quarter [11] Guidance - For fiscal 2025, FICO anticipates revenues of $1.98 billion and non-GAAP earnings projected at $28.58 per share [13]
FICO(FICO) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-30 01:54
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q2 revenues of $499 million, an increase of 15% year-over-year [5][15] - GAAP net income for the quarter was $163 million, up 25% from the prior year, with GAAP earnings per share at $6.59, a 28% increase [6][20] - Non-GAAP net income was $193 million, also up 25%, with non-GAAP earnings per share at $7.81, a 27% increase [6][20] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $65 million, a 6% increase year-over-year, with total free cash flow over the last four quarters at $677 million, up 45% [6][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Scores segment, revenues were $297 million, up 25% year-over-year, with B2B revenues increasing by 31% primarily due to mortgage originations [7][15] - B2C revenues grew by 6%, driven by indirect channel partners [7][15] - Mortgage origination revenues surged by 48%, accounting for 54% of B2B revenue and 44% of total Scores revenue [7][8] - The Software segment reported revenues of $202 million, a 2% increase from the prior year, with on-premises and SaaS software revenue growing by 4% [11][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas region contributed 86% of total company revenues, while EMEA and Asia Pacific regions generated 9% and 5% respectively [16] - Total software ARR was $715 million, a 3% increase year-over-year, with platform ARR growing by 17% [12][17] - The dollar-based net retention rate was 102%, with platform NRR at 110% and non-platform at 96% [12][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on innovation, with new products like the FICO Score mortgage simulator and FICO Score 10T being highlighted [9][10] - Partnerships with companies like Fujitsu and Dakado aim to enhance digital transformation and precision in the life insurance industry [13] - The company is committed to expanding its indirect sales channels and enhancing its partner network [11][112] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the fiscal year guidance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [22] - The company noted that while there are headwinds in customer outreach programs, the overall business remains healthy [34][41] - Management emphasized the importance of customer education in maximizing the value of their offerings [115] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 112,000 shares in Q2 at an average price of $18.49 per share [22] - The effective tax rate for the quarter was 23.7%, with expectations of around 22% for the full year [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did results compare to expectations? - Management acknowledged the current environment's uncertainty and maintained a conservative approach to guidance [31] Question: What is the outlook for software reacceleration? - Management indicated that macroeconomic factors are influencing growth, but they remain optimistic about platform growth [32][34] Question: Any changes in credit origination volumes? - Management noted no significant changes in credit origination volumes but acknowledged the lag in data reporting [38][40] Question: Are there changes in customer behavior regarding platform sales cycles? - Management reported no significant changes in sales cycles, indicating that the platform remains a strategic purchase for customers [45][46] Question: What is the outlook for professional services revenue? - Management expects professional services revenue to increase in the second half of the year due to timing issues [117] Question: What are the strategic priorities moving forward? - Management highlighted upcoming innovations and the use of AI, with announcements expected at FICO World [121]
FICO(FICO) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-04-30 00:19
Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was $498.7 million, a 13% increase quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q) and a 15% increase year-over-year (Y/Y) [3] - Scores revenue reached $297.0 million in Q2 2025, showing a 26% increase Q/Q and a 25% increase Y/Y [3] - Software revenue was $201.7 million in Q2 2025, a 1% decrease Q/Q but a 2% increase Y/Y [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $287.8 million, a 29% increase Q/Q and a 22% increase Y/Y [3] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $7.81 in Q2 2025, a 35% increase Q/Q and a 27% increase Y/Y [3] Software Metrics - Software ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) was $714.6 million, a 2% decrease Q/Q but a 3% increase Y/Y [3] - Software ACV (Annual Contract Value) Bookings were $21.8 million, a 3% increase Q/Q and a 30% increase Y/Y [3] - Platform ARR reached $234.7 million by March 31, 2025, representing 33% of the total ARR [17] - Non-Platform ARR reached $479.9 million by March 31, 2025, representing 67% of the total ARR [17] Scores Segment Highlights - Total Scores revenues increased by 25% compared to Q2 2024 [15] - B2B revenue increased by 31% compared to Q2 2024 [15] - Mortgage Originations revenues increased by 48% compared to Q2 2024 [15]
Fair Isaac (FICO) Q2 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-04-29 23:30
Core Insights - Fair Isaac (FICO) reported revenue of $498.74 million for the quarter ended March 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 15% and an EPS of $7.81 compared to $6.14 a year ago, exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates for both revenue and EPS [1][2] Financial Performance - The reported revenue of $498.74 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $496.22 million, resulting in a surprise of +0.51% [1] - The EPS of $7.81 exceeded the consensus estimate of $7.39, delivering a surprise of +5.68% [1] - Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for the platform was $234.70 million, below the average estimate of $248.73 million [4] - Total ARR was reported at $714.60 million, compared to the estimated $751.38 million [4] - Non-platform ARR was $479.90 million, lower than the average estimate of $502.65 million [4] Revenue Breakdown - Professional services revenue was $17.87 million, below the average estimate of $19.18 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -9.5% [4] - Software revenue reached $201.70 million, slightly below the average estimate of $211.53 million, with a year-over-year increase of +2.4% [4] - Scores revenue was $297.04 million, exceeding the average estimate of $286 million, with a year-over-year increase of +25.4% [4] - On-premises and SaaS software revenue was $183.83 million, below the average estimate of $192.35 million, with a year-over-year increase of +3.8% [4] - Business-to-consumer scores revenue was $54.55 million, surpassing the average estimate of $52.90 million, with a year-over-year increase of +6.2% [4] - Business-to-business scores revenue was $242.49 million, exceeding the average estimate of $235.89 million, with a year-over-year increase of +30.7% [4] Operating Income - Operating income for software was reported at $63.32 million, below the average estimate of $69.19 million [4] - Operating income for scores was $264.97 million, exceeding the average estimate of $254.48 million [4] Stock Performance - Fair Isaac's shares returned +5.4% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite experienced a -0.8% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]
Fair Isaac (FICO) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-04-29 22:30
Core Insights - Fair Isaac (FICO) reported quarterly earnings of $7.81 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.39 per share, and up from $6.14 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 5.68% [1] - The company posted revenues of $498.74 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.51%, and an increase from $433.81 million year-over-year [2] - Fair Isaac has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once in the last four quarters, indicating mixed performance in earnings expectations [2][6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $7.80 on revenues of $518.78 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $29.16 on revenues of $1.99 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Fair Isaac is currently mixed, leading to a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting the stock is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Computers - IT Services industry, to which Fair Isaac belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 44% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact the stock's performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, highlighting the importance of tracking these revisions for investment decisions [5]