Core Viewpoint - Five Below (FIVE) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended April 2025, with the actual results having a significant impact on its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Five Below's upcoming earnings report is $0.83 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +38.3%. Revenues are projected to be $961.07 million, which is an 18.4% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 12.9% higher, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for Five Below is 0%, as the Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting no recent differing analyst views [8][12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict a definitive earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Five Below was expected to post earnings of $3.38 per share but exceeded expectations with earnings of $3.48, resulting in a surprise of +2.96%. Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13][14]. Market Reaction Factors - An earnings beat or miss may not solely dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment. Stocks may decline despite an earnings beat or rise despite a miss due to unforeseen catalysts [15].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup analyst Paul Lejuez significantly raised the price target for Five Below from $80 to $121, reflecting a more than 50% increase, which positively impacted the stock price, resulting in an over 8% gain at market close [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Actions - The price target for Five Below was raised by Citigroup's Paul Lejuez, indicating a strong bullish sentiment towards the stock [2]. - Despite the substantial increase in the price target, Lejuez maintained a neutral recommendation on the stock [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Five Below's comparable sales rose nearly 7% year over year in its first quarter, surpassing the company's guidance of flat to only 2% growth [4]. - The company has raised its revenue guidance, which, along with the strong anticipated comparable sales result, suggests a positive outlook for the stock [5]. Group 3: Market Context - The overall market responded positively to the news, with Five Below's stock outperforming the S&P 500 index, which gained a bit over 2% [1].

Core Viewpoint - Five Below's stock experienced a 2.5% decline following a downgrade from CFRA, which changed its recommendation from buy to hold with a price target of $108 [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Recommendations - CFRA downgraded Five Below's recommendation to hold from buy, setting a price target of $108 [2]. - The downgrade occurred shortly before Five Below is expected to release its first quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report [4]. Group 2: Earnings Expectations - Analysts anticipate a 19% year-over-year increase in sales for Five Below, projecting sales to reach $966 million [4]. - Per-share earnings are expected to rise by 38% to $0.83 [4]. Group 3: Company Guidance - Five Below raised its Q1 sales estimate to approximately $967 million, aligning with analyst consensus, up from a previous forecast of $905 million to $925 million [5]. - The company expects same-store sales growth of 6.7%, significantly higher than the earlier projection of flat to 2% [5]. Group 4: Market Context - The current economic environment, particularly regarding the tariff situation, is not as severe as previously feared, which may positively influence retail stocks like Five Below [6].

Core Viewpoint - Five Below, Inc. is set to release its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 on June 4, 2025, followed by a conference call to discuss these results [1][2]. Company Overview - Five Below is a high-growth value retailer that offers trend-right, high-quality products primarily targeted at tweens and teens, with most items priced between $1 and $5, and some extreme value items priced above $5 [4][5]. - The company operates over 1,800 stores across 44 states in the U.S. and aims to provide an engaging shopping experience filled with a variety of product categories [5]. Financial Communication - A live audio webcast of the upcoming conference call will be available online, and a replay will be accessible shortly after the call concludes [2]. - Investors and analysts are encouraged to join the call by dialing in approximately 10 minutes before it starts [2].

Company Overview - Five Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer in the U.S., offering a variety of products including jewelry, socks, t-shirts, and personal care items at low price points [1]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy focuses on identifying mispriced securities by understanding the financial drivers of a company, often revealed through a DCF model valuation. This approach allows for a flexible investment strategy that considers all prospects of a stock to assess risk-to-reward [1].

Core Viewpoint - Five Below, Inc. has shown strong upward momentum in its stock performance, reflecting positive market sentiment and investor confidence in its financial stability and growth potential [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, Five Below reported total sales of $1.39 billion, a 4% increase from the same period in 2023, driven by the addition of 22 net stores [4]. - The company has raised its outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, projecting net sales of approximately $967 million, significantly above the previous guidance of $905-$925 million [8]. - Comparable sales are now forecasted to grow 6.7%, an improvement from the initial expectation of flat to 2% growth [9]. Growth Strategy - Five Below opened a record 228 stores in fiscal 2024, increasing its total store count by 14.7% to 1,771, with plans for 150 new store openings in fiscal 2025 [7]. - The company's scalable business model and focus on customer experience position it well for sustained growth as it enters fiscal 2025 [3]. Valuation Metrics - Five Below is trading at a low price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 1.31, below the industry average of 1.64 and the sector average of 1.59, indicating potential for attractive entry points for investors [10]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has been revised upward, with the current fiscal year's estimate at $4.58 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 9.1% [13]. Cost Pressures - The company faces elevated cost pressures, with selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses rising 8.5% to $267 million in the fiscal fourth quarter [15]. - Adjusted gross margin declined 70 basis points year over year to 40.5%, primarily due to fixed cost deleverage and product cost timing [17].

Core Viewpoint - Five Below (FIVE) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, supported by a strong history of exceeding expectations [1][6]. Earnings Performance - Five Below has a solid track record of surpassing earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 82.73% over the last two quarters [2]. - In the last reported quarter, Five Below achieved earnings of $3.48 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.38 per share by 2.96% [3]. - In the previous quarter, the company reported earnings of $0.42 per share against an expectation of $0.16 per share, resulting in a surprise of 162.50% [3]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent changes in earnings estimates for Five Below have been favorable, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [6][9]. - The current Earnings ESP for Five Below is +7.45%, suggesting that analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [9]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [7]. Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [8]. - A negative Earnings ESP does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss but can reduce the predictive power of the metric [9].

Core Viewpoint - Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) has raised its sales and earnings outlook for Q1 fiscal 2025, leading to an 11.9% increase in stock price, driven by strong performance and a leadership transition that signals confidence in long-term strategy [1][4][7]. Financial Outlook - The company expects net sales for Q1 fiscal 2025 to reach $967 million, up from previous guidance of $905-$925 million, compared to $811.9 million in Q1 fiscal 2024 [4]. - Projected store openings for the quarter are now 55, exceeding the earlier estimate of 50 [5]. - Comparable sales are anticipated to rise by 6.7%, a significant improvement from the earlier projection of flat to modest 2% growth [5]. - Earnings per share are forecasted between 69 cents and 71 cents, an increase from the previous estimate of 44-55 cents, with adjusted earnings expected to be 82-84 cents compared to the prior estimate of 50-61 cents [6]. Leadership Transition - Tom Vellios, co-founder and executive chair, will step down from the board after the 2025 annual meeting, transitioning to an advisory role [7]. - Mike Devine, a current board member, is expected to be appointed as non-executive chair, bringing extensive governance experience [8]. Company Strategy and Market Position - Five Below has positioned itself as a leading destination for pre-teens and teens, focusing on trendy, high-quality products at exceptional value [9]. - The company has realigned its strategy to emphasize product, value, and customer experience, which has gained momentum since Q3 fiscal 2024 [10]. - Despite ongoing challenges such as rising costs and a competitive retail landscape, Five Below remains committed to its growth strategy [10][11].

Company Transition and Leadership Changes - Tom Vellios, co-founder and Executive Chair of Five Below, will transition to an advisory role and will not seek re-election to the Board at the 2025 Annual Meeting scheduled for June 12, 2025 [1][2] - Mike Devine, a current director with 12 years of experience on the Board, is expected to be appointed as the non-executive Chair, bringing substantial public company board experience [2] Business Performance and Outlook - Five Below is raising its guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, expecting net sales of approximately $967 million, up from prior guidance of $905 million to $925 million [4][6] - The company anticipates opening 55 new stores in the first quarter, exceeding the previous guidance of approximately 50 new stores [6] - Comparable sales are projected to increase by approximately 6.7%, compared to earlier guidance of a flat to 2% increase [6] - Diluted income per common share is expected to be in the range of $0.69 to $0.71, significantly higher than the prior guidance of $0.44 to $0.55 [6] - Adjusted diluted income per common share is expected to be between $0.82 and $0.84, compared to the previous range of $0.50 to $0.61 [6] Company Overview - Five Below is a leading high-growth value retailer targeting pre-teens and teens, with most items priced between $1 and $5, and some items priced above $5 [7] - The company operates over 1,800 stores across 44 states, focusing on delivering trend-right, high-quality products in a fun shopping environment [7]

Group 1 - The "Trump Tariff Losers" index increased by 0.85%, reaching 84.49 points [1] - Zebra Technologies saw a rise of 5.16%, while Five Below increased by 3.12% [1] - Gap and Coach also experienced gains, with increases of 1.35% and 1.13% respectively [1] Group 2 - Dollar Tree rose by 0.9%, indicating a positive performance among some retailers [1] - Best Buy declined by 1.19%, and Harley-Davidson fell by 1.24%, showing mixed results in the sector [1]