Statements contained in this presentation and certain other written or oral statements made from time to time by Flowers Foods, Inc. (the "company", "Flowers Foods", "Flowers", "us", "we", or "our") and its representatives that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements relate to current expectations regarding our business and our future financial condition and results of operations and are often iden ...

Core Insights - Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) is expected to report revenue growth of 1.7% year-over-year, with a consensus estimate of $1.6 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 [1] - The earnings consensus has increased to 38 cents per share, matching the prior-year quarter's figure, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.7% on average [2] Group 1: Performance Factors - The company's focus on core priorities, including team development, brand concentration, margin prioritization, and strategic mergers and acquisitions, has positively impacted its performance [2][3] - FLO is executing a portfolio strategy by exiting low-margin businesses and replacing them with higher-margin opportunities, enhancing its cost structure, and investing in brands to drive volume and market share [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The fiscal first-quarter results may reflect challenges from a shifting consumer environment, including changes in spending behavior and increased costs due to heightened promotional activities [5] - Despite the broader food industry benefiting from increased at-home consumption, FLO faces headwinds in key categories, particularly in cake, leading to a projected 1.1% decline in overall volumes for the quarter [5] Group 3: Brand Performance - Management highlighted strong volume gains for core bread brands, including Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, and Canyon, with Nature's Own's premium line also showing unit growth due to sustained demand [4] - The successful implementation of the portfolio strategy is likely to have contributed to the company's performance in the upcoming quarter [4]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates flat earnings for Flowers Foods (FLO) in the upcoming quarter, with revenues expected to increase slightly, but actual results will significantly influence stock price movements [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - Flowers Foods is projected to report earnings of $0.38 per share, unchanged from the previous year, with revenues estimated at $1.6 billion, reflecting a 1.7% increase year-over-year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.33% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4][10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for Flowers Foods is lower than the consensus estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.06% [10][11]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Flowers Foods exceeded earnings expectations by delivering $0.22 per share against an expected $0.21, resulting in a surprise of +4.76% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Conclusion - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, Flowers Foods does not appear to be a strong candidate for exceeding expectations based on current estimates and rankings [16].

Core Viewpoint - Flowers Foods, Inc. is set to report its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 16, 2025, with a live Q&A webcast scheduled for the same day [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Flowers Foods, Inc. is headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia, and is one of the largest producers of packaged bakery foods in the United States [2]. - The company reported sales of $5.1 billion in 2024 [2]. - Flowers Foods operates bakeries across the country, producing a wide range of bakery products [2]. - Notable brands under Flowers Foods include Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Canyon Bakehouse, Simple Mills, Wonder, and Tastykake [2].

Core Insights - Dave's Killer Bread is launching organic Sandwich Rolls in two varieties: 21 Whole Grains and Seeds and Sandwich Rolls Done Right, aiming to enhance the sandwich experience for consumers [1][2][3] Product Details - The new Sandwich Rolls are designed for various uses, including sub sandwiches, hot dogs, and French bread pizzas, emphasizing convenience and versatility [2] - The 21 Whole Grains and Seeds variety contains 16g of whole grains and 11g of protein (11% Daily Value) per serving, while the Sandwich Rolls Done Right offers 10g of whole grains and 11g of protein (11% Daily Value) [3] Brand Positioning - Dave's Killer Bread is recognized as America's 1 organic bread brand, with a commitment to high-quality, organic ingredients, and is certified USDA organic and Non-GMO Project Verified [4][5] - The brand is also focused on social responsibility, employing individuals with criminal backgrounds, with one in three employee-partners at its Oregon bakery having such a background [5]

Company Overview - Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) is a producer and seller of bakery food products in the United States, with a portfolio that includes brands such as Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Canyon Bakehouse, and Wonder [1]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy focuses on identifying mispriced securities by understanding the drivers behind a company's financials, often revealed through a DCF model valuation. This approach allows for a flexible investment strategy that encompasses various stock prospects to assess risk-to-reward [1].

Company Overview - Wonder Bread, founded in 1921, is an iconic brand known for popularizing sliced bread and remains a staple in American households [4] - The brand is part of Flowers Foods, Inc., which reported sales of $5.1 billion in 2024 and is one of the largest producers of packaged bakery foods in the U.S. [5] Product Launch - Wonder has launched its first line of snack cakes, expanding its product offerings beyond bread [1][2] - The new line includes a variety of treats designed for lunchboxes and sweet cravings, such as Crème-Filled Chocolate Cupcakes, Glazed Honey Buns, and Powdered Mini Donuts [6] Marketing and Branding - The new treats feature fresh packaging that maintains the brand's classic identity while appealing to modern consumers [3] - The brand aims to evoke nostalgia and joy, similar to the feelings associated with Wonder bread, by introducing these new products [2]

Core Insights - Flowers Foods, Inc. has completed the acquisition of Simple Mills, enhancing its position in the healthier snack market and addressing the rising demand for better-for-you alternatives [1][3][11] Company Overview - Simple Mills, founded in 2012, has become a prominent brand in the natural food sector, offering premium snacks with a focus on clean ingredients and taste, distributed in over 30,000 stores [2] - The acquisition allows Flowers Foods to diversify its product categories and strengthen its presence in the snacking segment [3][4] Strategic Initiatives - Flowers Foods aims to broaden distribution, accelerate innovation, and enhance brand awareness post-acquisition, which is expected to drive growth and profitability [3][11] - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions to expand its brand portfolio and geographic reach, with past acquisitions including Papa Pita Bakery and Dave's Killer Bread [4] Market Positioning - The company is shifting towards premium products, investing in gluten-free, organic, and keto-friendly options to align with evolving consumer dietary trends [5] - Flowers Foods is implementing pricing and cost-saving initiatives while focusing on phasing out low-margin businesses to enhance overall business efficiency [6] Challenges and Performance - Despite strategic efforts, Flowers Foods faces challenges in sustaining growth due to competitive pressures and inflation, impacting its fourth-quarter performance [7] - The company's stock has declined by 14.7% over the past three months, underperforming compared to the industry and the S&P 500 [8]

Core Insights - Vestar Capital Partners has completed the sale of Simple Mills to Flowers Foods for an enterprise value of $795 million, marking a successful exit for the private equity firm [1] - The investment in Simple Mills, initiated in October 2019, was driven by a shift towards better-for-you foods and the unique potential of the Simple Mills brand, resulting in consistent double-digit topline growth during Vestar's ownership [2] - Vestar's strategy involved expanding distribution channels, supporting product innovation, investing in marketing and R&D, and strengthening the supply chain, which collectively contributed to significant value creation [2][3] Company Overview - Simple Mills is recognized as a premium brand offering better-for-you snacks, including crackers, cookies, snack bars, and baking mixes [1] - Vestar Capital Partners specializes in management buyouts and growth capital investments, focusing on building long-term enterprise value in sectors such as Consumer, Business & Technology Services, and Healthcare [4] - Since its inception in 1988, Vestar has invested over $12 billion in 94 companies, with a total value of approximately $61 billion, including more than 200 add-on acquisitions [4]

Company Overview - Flowers Foods, Inc. is one of the largest producers of packaged bakery foods in the United States, with net sales of $5.1 billion in 2024 [3] - The company operates bakeries nationwide, producing a wide range of bakery products under top brands such as Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, and Tastykake [3] Acquisition Details - Flowers Foods has completed the acquisition of Simple Mills, a leading natural brand known for premium better-for-you snacks including crackers, cookies, snack bars, and baking mixes [1][2] - This acquisition is expected to enhance Flowers Foods' presence in the better-for-you snacking segments, diversify category exposure, and improve growth and margin prospects [2] Simple Mills Overview - Simple Mills, founded in 2012, is recognized for its high-quality, nutritious ingredients that deliver exceptional taste, disrupting traditional grocery categories [4] - The brand is the leading natural cracker brand in the multi-outlet (MULO) channel, with distribution in over 30,000 stores across the nation [4]