Some people say, 'One man's trash is another man's treasure,' and in my opinion, this is a classic example of those words in action. GFL Environmental ( GFL ) has shifted from a high-growth startup in the municipal solidI'm an optimist. I look forward to a brighter future. As the world evolves so must our investment style. Opportunities are everywhere but having the right mindset, being humble and having a can do, never stop learning attitude is critical to success. We can beat the market but it's likely to ...

Core Insights - GFL Environmental has transitioned from a high-growth startup in the municipal solid waste sector to a more established player in the industry, indicating a shift in its business model and growth strategy [1]. Group 1 - The company embodies the idea that what may be considered waste by one can be valuable to another, highlighting its focus on sustainability and resource recovery [1]. - The investment philosophy emphasizes optimism and adaptability in the face of market volatility, suggesting that the company is prepared for fluctuations while pursuing growth opportunities [1]. Group 2 - The company maintains a long position in its shares, reflecting confidence in its future performance and potential for growth [2]. - There is no indication of any business relationships that could influence the analysis, ensuring an unbiased perspective on the company's performance [2].

Core Insights - Maverick Capital Ltd. established long positions in Google C, Applied Materials, Boston Scientific, Visa, and Camden Property during the fourth quarter [1] - The firm increased its holdings in TSMC, NVIDIA, GFL Environment, and Carvana [1] - Maverick Capital completely exited positions in Kenvue, US Bancorp, AMD, Danaher, and Insmed [1] - The company reduced its stakes in Nubank, Disney, Merit Medical, Acadia Health, and Sherwin-Williams [1] - The firm maintains significant positions in NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC, and Google C [1]

Core Viewpoint - GFL Environmental Inc reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, exceeding analyst expectations in both earnings per share and sales figures [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company posted quarterly earnings of 26 cents per share, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 14 cents per share [1]. - Quarterly sales reached $1.209 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $1.190 billion [1]. Future Outlook - GFL Environmental projects FY2026 sales to be between $7.000 billion and $7.140 billion, compared to estimates of $7.070 billion [1]. Management Commentary - CEO Patrick Dovigi highlighted that the company's workforce of over 15,000 employees delivered results that exceeded expectations [2]. Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, GFL Environmental shares fell by 5.7%, trading at $41.51 [2]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Barclays analyst William Grippin maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $62 to $63 [3]. - Scotiabank analyst Konark Gupta maintained a Sector Outperform rating but lowered the price target from $57 to $56 [3]. - RBC Capital analyst Sabahat Khan maintained an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $59 to $60 [3].

Core Insights - GFL Environmental achieved a record adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.2% in Q4 2025, the highest in the company's history, despite commodity price declines impacting margins [1][4][8] - The company reported a 7.3% increase in revenue for Q4, driven by better-than-expected pricing, volume, and M&A contributions, partially offset by foreign exchange headwinds [3][5] - GFL's 2026 guidance targets approximately $7.0 billion in revenue, $2.14 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and $835 million in adjusted free cash flow, reflecting an 8% revenue growth and a 10% EBITDA growth [6][14][15] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2025 was reported at $1.985 billion, with adjusted free cash flow of $756 million [9][8] - The company experienced a 6.4% pricing increase in Q4 and a 6.1% increase for the full year, exceeding original plans by 70 basis points [3][5] - GFL's net leverage at the end of 2025 was 3.4x, the lowest year-end net leverage in its history, with a potential to spend $1.5 to $2.0 billion on acquisitions in 2026 [7][13][19] Capital Allocation and M&A - GFL completed over $3.0 billion in share buybacks, including a $2.25 billion buyback plan and an additional $750 million in the second half of 2025 [11][10] - The company deployed close to $1 billion in M&A during 2025, with expectations for significant benefits rolling into 2026 [12][10] - Management emphasized a commitment to maintaining leverage in the low-to-mid 3x range while pursuing further M&A opportunities [19] Operational Efficiency - The company noted a continued trend of lower cost intensity in 2025, driven by improvements in labor turnover, fleet optimization, and procurement benefits [17] - GFL's operational initiatives are expected to contribute to further improvements in labor turnover in 2026 and 2027 [17] Strategic Initiatives - GFL relocated its executive headquarters to the U.S. to broaden eligibility for U.S. equity indices while maintaining Canadian index eligibility, with potential inclusion in Russell indices expected in mid-2026 [18] - The company is transitioning to U.S. GAAP reporting and domestic filings, which could support eligibility for additional indices in the future [18]

分组1 - GFL Environmental Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.26 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.14 per share, and showing an increase from $0.16 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +90.20% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.21 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.66%, although this represents a decline from year-ago revenues of $1.42 billion [2] - GFL Environmental has surpassed consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters, indicating a mixed performance in earnings estimate revisions leading to a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock [6] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.06 on revenues of $1.18 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.76 on revenues of $5.04 billion [7] - The Waste Removal Services industry, to which GFL Environmental belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 29% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for stock performance [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, revenues grew by 7.3% driven by better-than-expected contributions from pricing, volume, and M&A despite headwinds from foreign exchange [13] - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year reached $1.985 billion, with a margin of 30% for the first time in company history, reflecting a 130 basis point increase over 2024 [7][9] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for Q4 was $425 million, totaling $756 million for 2025, ahead of plan due to EBITDA outperformance [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 pricing increased by 6.4% for the quarter and 6.1% for the year, exceeding original plans [13] - Adjusted EBITDA margins in the Canadian segment increased by 175 basis points, while U.S. margins were up materially when excluding prior year hurricane volumes [15] - C&D-related volume remained soft, but the company is positioned for recovery when the economy improves [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 volumes were 70 basis points ahead of plan, attributed to unanticipated special waste activity [14] - The pricing environment remains constructive, with expectations for continued pricing above internal cost of inflation [8] - Commodity prices decreased by 33% year-over-year, impacting margins, but underlying consolidated margins improved by over 150 basis points from the prior year [15][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve low- to mid-30s margins by 2028, supported by operational efficiencies and capital allocation strategies [9][11] - The relocation of the executive headquarters to the U.S. is expected to enhance visibility with investors and broaden eligibility for U.S. equity indices [12] - The company plans to continue focusing on M&A opportunities within existing markets to leverage infrastructure and achieve higher returns [65] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to meet and potentially exceed 2026 guidance, citing multiple avenues for upside [12] - The macro environment remains challenging, but there are signs of improvement in customer sentiment and capital plans for 2026 [98] - The company is committed to maintaining leverage in the low to mid-3s range while pursuing growth opportunities [24] Other Important Information - The company completed $1 billion in M&A and repurchased over $3 billion of its own shares in 2025 [10][16] - The adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion improved to 38%, despite headwinds from M&A and FX [16] - The company expects 2026 revenue to be approximately $7 billion, an 8% increase over 2025 [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Does the leverage guidance assume no incremental M&A and buyback? - Management confirmed that the leverage guidance is committed to low to mid threes, and any M&A or buybacks would increase that number [24] Question: Can you break down the EBITDA bridge for 2026? - Management acknowledged the complexity of the EBITDA bridge, noting that organic EBITDA growth is expected to be in the mid- to high single digits [25][27] Question: What is the expected ramp for EPR and R&G investments? - Management indicated that EPR contributions will be front-end loaded, with expectations for a significant portion in Q1 [33] Question: How do you balance M&A and share buybacks? - Management stated that while the stock is undervalued, they will continue to evaluate both M&A opportunities and share buybacks based on market conditions [40][41] Question: How did GIP and ES perform in 2025? - Management reported that both businesses performed in line with expectations, with GIP primarily driven by government contracts [48] Question: Is there any guidance for Q1? - Management provided Q1 revenue guidance of CAD 1.6 billion to CAD 1.625 billion, with a margin of approximately 28.8% [55]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, revenues grew by 7.3%, driven by better-than-expected contributions from pricing, volume, and M&A, despite headwinds from foreign exchange [13] - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year reached $1.985 billion, with a 30% Adjusted EBITDA margin, marking a 130 basis point increase over 2024 [7][9] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for Q4 was $425 million, totaling $756 million for 2025, ahead of plan due to EBITDA outperformance [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 pricing was 6.4% for the quarter and 6.1% for the year, exceeding original plans by 70 basis points [13] - Adjusted EBITDA margins in the Canadian segment increased by 175 basis points, while U.S. margins were up 10 basis points, excluding prior year hurricane volumes [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 volumes were 70 basis points ahead of plan, attributed to unanticipated special waste activity [14] - C&D-related volume remained soft, but the company is positioned for recovery when the economy improves [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve low- to mid-30s margins by 2028, with a focus on operational efficiency and capital allocation strategy [9][11] - The relocation of the executive headquarters to the U.S. is expected to enhance visibility with investors and broaden eligibility for U.S. equity indices [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the pricing environment and the ability to maintain pricing above internal cost inflation [8] - The company anticipates multiple avenues of upside to the 2026 guidance, with expected revenue of approximately $7 billion, an 8% increase over 2025 [18] Other Important Information - The company completed nearly $1 billion in M&A and bought back over 10% of its own stock, resulting in the lowest year-end net leverage in its history at 3.4x [10][11] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for 2026 is expected to increase to $835 million, reflecting a 14% growth [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Does the leverage guidance assume no incremental M&A and buyback? - Management confirmed that the leverage guidance is committed to low to mid threes, and any incremental M&A or buybacks would increase that number [24] Question: Can you break down the EBITDA bridge for 2026? - Management acknowledged the components affecting EBITDA, including M&A rollover benefits and FX impacts, indicating organic EBITDA growth in the mid- to high single digits is achievable [25][27] Question: What is the expected contribution from EPR and R&G investments? - Management indicated that EPR contributions are expected to ramp up significantly in 2026, while R&G contributions are more muted and will ramp up into 2027 [33][34] Question: How do you balance M&A and share buybacks? - Management stated that while the stock is undervalued, they will continue to evaluate both M&A opportunities and share buybacks based on market conditions [40][41] Question: How is the M&A pipeline looking for 2026? - Management reported a healthy M&A pipeline focused on businesses in existing markets, with expectations of deploying $750 million to $1 billion in acquisitions [65] Question: Will there be incremental disclosure on GIP and ES performance? - Management committed to providing more detailed disclosures on GIP and ES performance in future quarterly releases [82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, revenues grew by 7.3%, driven by better-than-expected contributions from pricing, volume, and M&A, despite headwinds from foreign exchange [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year reached $1.985 billion, with Q4 margins at 30.2%, marking the highest Q4 margin in the company's history [13][14] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for Q4 was $425 million, totaling $756 million for 2025, ahead of plan due to EBITDA outperformance [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pricing increased by 6.4% for Q4 and 6.1% for the year, exceeding original expectations [12] - Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by 175 basis points in the Canadian segment and increased in the U.S. segment, excluding the impact of prior year hurricane volumes [13] - C&D-related volume remained soft, but the company is positioned for recovery when the broader economy improves [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 volumes were 70 basis points ahead of plan, attributed to unanticipated special waste activity [12] - The pricing environment remains constructive, with expectations for continued pricing above internal cost of inflation [6] - Commodity prices decreased by 33% year-over-year, impacting margins, but underlying consolidated margins improved by over 150 basis points from the prior year [13][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve low- to mid-30s margins by 2028, with a focus on operational efficiency and capital allocation strategy [7][10] - The sale of the ES segment has simplified the business into a pure-play solid waste leader, enhancing equity value [8] - The relocation of the executive headquarters to the U.S. is expected to increase visibility with investors and broaden the shareholder base [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to meet and potentially exceed 2026 guidance, citing multiple avenues for upside [10][11] - The macro environment remains challenging, but there are signs of recovery in capital spending from large customers, which could lead to increased volume [92] - The company is committed to maintaining leverage in the low to mid-3s range while pursuing M&A opportunities [22] Other Important Information - The company completed $3 billion in share repurchases in 2025, with an additional $750 million deployed in the second half of the year due to favorable stock pricing [9] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion improved to 38%, with expectations for further growth in 2026 [19] - The company plans to provide more detailed disclosures regarding the performance of GIP and ES in future quarterly releases [77] Q&A Session Summary Question: Does the leverage guidance assume no incremental M&A and buyback? - Management confirmed that the leverage guidance is based on exiting 2026 in the low to mid threes, with potential increases if M&A and buybacks occur [22] Question: Can you break down the EBITDA bridge for 2026? - Management acknowledged the components affecting EBITDA, including M&A rollover benefits and FX impacts, indicating organic EBITDA growth in the mid- to high single digits is achievable [24][25] Question: What is the outlook for incremental growth CapEx investments? - Management indicated that growth CapEx is front-end loaded, with expectations for significant contributions from EPR in Q1, tapering off through the year [30][32] Question: How are volumes expected to perform in 2026? - Management anticipates modestly positive volumes, with potential upside from EPR and market conditions improving [33][35] Question: How does the company balance M&A and share buybacks? - Management stated that while the stock is undervalued, they will continue to evaluate both M&A opportunities and share buybacks based on market conditions [37][38] Question: What is the expected cadence of pricing in 2026? - Management expects a strong start in Q1 with pricing tapering down throughout the year, indicating high visibility into pricing for 2026 [41][42] Question: How did GIP and ES perform in 2025? - Management reported that both businesses performed in line with expectations, with GIP primarily driven by government contracts [45] Question: Is there a plan for more disclosure on GIP and ES? - Management confirmed plans to provide more detailed disclosures on these businesses in future reports [77]

Core Insights - GFL Environmental reported strong financial results for Q4 and full year 2025, with a net leverage of 3.4x, the lowest in the company's history, and a significant share repurchase program totaling $3.0 billion, representing over 10% of outstanding shares [1][2] - The company achieved a full year revenue of $6,615.9 million, marking a 9.5% increase, and an Adjusted EBITDA of $1,985.0 million, up 12.8% from the previous year [1][2] - For 2026, GFL anticipates revenue of approximately $7,000 million, an increase of 8%, and an estimated Adjusted Free Cash Flow of around $835 million, reflecting a 14% growth [1][2] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 Adjusted Free Cash Flow was $424.6 million, compared to $281.4 million in Q4 2024, while net income from continuing operations was $72.7 million, a turnaround from a net loss of $211.4 million in Q4 2024 [1][2] - The full year Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 30.0%, a 130 basis points increase from the prior year, with Q4 margin at 30.2%, the highest for that quarter in the company's history [1][2] - The company repurchased 43,741,452 subordinate voting shares during the year and plans to continue share repurchases opportunistically [1][2] Guidance for 2026 - GFL's guidance for 2026 includes an estimated Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2,140 million, representing a 10% increase, and an Adjusted EBITDA margin expected to be around 30.6%, an increase of 60 basis points [1][2] - Revenue growth is projected to be impacted by foreign exchange fluctuations, with a negative impact of approximately 2.1%, while core pricing is expected to be in the mid-5% range [1][2] - The guidance excludes contributions from any incremental mergers and acquisitions, focusing on organic growth and operational efficiencies [1][2]