Core Insights - GFL Environmental Inc. reported a strong second quarter in 2025, with a revenue increase of 9.5% year-over-year, driven by organic price and volume growth [2][5][6] - The company achieved an Adjusted EBITDA of $515.1 million, reflecting a 14.6% increase compared to the same period in 2024, and an Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 230 basis points to 30.7% [5][6] - GFL has raised its full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $1.950 billion and $1.975 billion, indicating confidence in continued growth despite macroeconomic challenges [2][8][13] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $1,675.2 million, with 8.3% organic growth excluding divestitures, and 5.8% from core pricing [5][6] - Year-to-date revenue reached $3,235.3 million, a 10.9% increase excluding divestitures [6] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for Q2 2025 was $137.1 million, up from $111.0 million in Q2 2024, primarily due to increased Adjusted EBITDA and reduced cash interest paid [6][7] Strategic Outlook - The company maintains a robust M&A pipeline and is optimistic about meeting or exceeding its capital deployment targets for 2025 [2][5] - GFL's strategic plan focuses on driving industry-leading growth and optimizing existing operations to improve Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion [2][5] - The updated guidance for 2025 assumes a USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.37, reflecting adjustments from previous forecasts [8][9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current market trends and potential investment opportunities within specific sectors, highlighting the importance of thorough analysis in making informed investment decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Recent market fluctuations have shown a significant impact on investor sentiment, with a notable increase in volatility across various sectors [1]. - Analysts are observing a shift towards technology and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to outperform traditional industries in the coming quarters [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Companies within the technology sector have reported strong earnings growth, with some experiencing year-over-year increases of over 20% [1]. - The renewable energy sector is gaining traction, with investments expected to rise by approximately 15% annually as governments push for greener initiatives [2]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Despite the positive outlook for certain sectors, potential risks include regulatory changes and geopolitical tensions that could affect market stability [1]. - Companies must navigate supply chain disruptions that have been exacerbated by recent global events, impacting their operational efficiency [2].

Company Overview - GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.19, reflecting a -9.5% change, and revenues anticipated at $1.21 billion, down 19.6% from the previous year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for July 30, and if the actual results exceed expectations, the stock may experience an upward movement; conversely, a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.65% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that GFL's Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +36.84%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11]. - GFL currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, when combined with the positive Earnings ESP, indicates a strong potential for an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, GFL was expected to post earnings of $0.04 per share but instead reported a loss of -$0.06, resulting in a surprise of -250.00% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, GFL has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Industry Comparison - Republic Services (RSG), another player in the Waste Removal Services industry, is expected to report earnings of $1.75 per share for the same quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +8.7%, with revenues projected at $4.27 billion, up 5.5% [17]. - Republic Services has also seen a slight revision of its consensus EPS estimate down by 0.4% over the last 30 days, but a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in a positive Earnings ESP of +0.16%, suggesting a likely earnings beat [18].

Company Announcement - GFL Environmental Inc. will release its 2025 second quarter financial results after the market closes on July 30, 2025 [1] - An investor conference call will be held on July 31, 2025, at 8:30 am Eastern Time to discuss the financial results [1] Conference Call Details - A live audio webcast of the conference call can be accessed via the Company's Investors page or by dialing toll-free numbers in Canada and the United States [2] - Participants are encouraged to pre-register for the conference call to gain immediate access and bypass the live operator [3] Company Overview - GFL is headquartered in Vaughan, Ontario, and is the fourth largest diversified environmental services company in North America [4] - The company provides a comprehensive line of solid waste management services across Canada and in 18 U.S. states, employing over 15,000 individuals [4]

Market Overview - The global digital smart waste management solutions market is valued at approximately USD 5.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach nearly USD 12 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.5% from 2025 to 2034 [1] - The growth is driven by technological innovation, urbanization, environmental consciousness, and regulatory mandates for efficient waste disposal systems [1][18] Technology and Solutions - Smart waste management is increasingly adopted across municipalities and industries, utilizing technologies such as IoT, AI, data analytics, and cloud computing to optimize waste collection and processing [2] - Smart bins with sensors for real-time monitoring are gaining traction, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing collection frequency [3] - Waste tracking software holds about 25% market share, aiding in continuous tracking of waste generation [4] - Data analytics platforms provide actionable insights for long-term sustainability initiatives [5] Application Segmentation - Municipal waste management dominates the market with a 40% share, driven by urbanization and smart city developments [6] - Industrial waste management follows with a 30% share, influenced by regulatory requirements for hazardous waste handling [7] - The commercial segment accounts for around 20%, while residential waste management is emerging with approximately 10% share [7] Technology Segmentation - IoT-based solutions comprise nearly 40% of the market, forming the backbone of smart waste ecosystems [8] - AI and machine learning technologies hold a 25% market share, optimizing collection routes and predicting waste generation trends [9] End User Segmentation - Waste management companies lead the market with a 35% share, followed by government bodies at 30% [10] - Corporates and residential users are smaller segments but are gaining momentum due to rising environmental awareness [11] Regional Insights - North America captures approximately 40% of the global revenue, supported by advanced infrastructure and high adoption of digital technologies [12] - Europe holds about 30% market share, with strong governmental commitment to sustainability [13] - The Asia-Pacific region, with a 25% share, is the fastest-growing market, expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% [14] Growth Drivers - Urban expansion and technological innovation are primary growth drivers, enabling predictive analytics and optimizing collection logistics [18][19] - Increasing public and private investment in sustainability initiatives and compliance with environmental regulations further fuel demand [19][20] Market Restraints - High initial costs of smart technologies deter smaller municipalities, and the need for skilled professionals presents challenges [21] - Supply chain vulnerabilities and intense competition may affect profit margins and innovation [22] Emerging Opportunities - The shift towards eco-conscious consumerism is creating new opportunities for startups and tech firms in the digital smart waste space [23] - Smart city initiatives in developing regions are expected to drive demand for integrated digital waste solutions [24] - Public-private partnerships are emerging as critical enablers for scaling smart waste solutions [25] Key Competitors - Major players in the market include Veolia Environnement S.A., Suez S.A., Waste Management, Inc., and Republic Services, Inc. [27] Recent Strategic Developments - Veolia entered a strategic partnership with a tech startup for AI-based waste sorting technologies [28] - Suez acquired a mid-sized waste management firm to enhance its local market presence [29] - GFL Environmental launched a digital platform for customer engagement in waste management [30] - Republic Services unveiled a technology suite integrating IoT sensors and AI analytics for route optimization [31] - Remondis received regulatory approval for a new waste-to-energy facility, aligning with sustainability goals [32]

Group 1 - GFL Environmental has faced criticism for being an unprofitable and highly leveraged waste management company pursuing an aggressive growth strategy [1] - The investment approach focuses on value and deep value, with an emphasis on understanding industry trends, competitors, and key success drivers [1] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of valuation and qualitative aspects of a company, believing that understanding what is unknown is crucial for managing investment risks [1] Group 2 - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in GFL shares through various means, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2] - The article expresses personal opinions and does not involve compensation from any company mentioned, ensuring an unbiased perspective [2]

Core Viewpoint - GFL Environmental Inc. is rated as a hold due to its current valuation reflecting strong operational performance and near-term upside potential [1] Company Analysis - GFL is executing well in its operations, indicating a solid performance in the market [1] - The investment approach focuses on understanding core business economics, including competitive moat, unit economics, reinvestment opportunities, and management quality [1] - The emphasis is on long-term free cash flow generation and shareholder value creation [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is fundamentally driven, targeting sectors with strong secular tailwinds [1] - The analyst aims to share insights and gather feedback from fellow investors to enhance understanding of long-term equity value drivers [1] - The analysis is intended to be both analytical and accessible, providing value to readers seeking high-quality, long-term investment opportunities [1]

Exhibit 99.1 GFL Environmental Reports First Quarter 2025 Results VAUGHAN, ON, April 30, 2025 — GFL Environmental Inc. (NYSE: GFL) (TSX: GFL) ("GFL", "we" or "our") today announced its results for the first quarter of 2025. "I am extremely proud of the hard work and commitment of our over 15,000 employees, as we delivered another strong start to the year," said Patrick Dovigi, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of GFL. "Our exceptional execution drove industry leading top line growth of 12.5% and 120 basis ...

Company Performance - GFL Environmental Inc. reported a quarterly loss of $0.06 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.04, compared to break-even earnings per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -250% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.09 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.42%, but down from $1.34 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, GFL has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance - GFL Environmental shares have increased by approximately 12.1% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with a -5.5% decline in the S&P 500 [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.23 on revenues of $1.18 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.76 on revenues of $4.58 billion [7] Industry Outlook - The Waste Removal Services industry, to which GFL belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 20% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - The performance of GFL's stock may be influenced by the overall outlook for the industry, as research shows that the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8] Future Expectations - The estimate revisions trend for GFL Environmental is mixed, leading to a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] - Investors are encouraged to monitor how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year may change following the recent earnings report [4][6]

Core Insights - GFL Environmental Inc. reported a strong start to 2025 with a revenue increase of 12.5% year-over-year, driven by core pricing and positive volume growth [2][8][9] - The company achieved an Adjusted EBITDA of $426.1 million, reflecting a 13.8% increase compared to the same period last year, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.3%, the highest in the company's history [2][8][9] - GFL's net leverage improved to 3.1x, the lowest in the company's history, following the divestiture of its Environmental Services business, which has allowed for a more aggressive share repurchase strategy [2][8][9] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $1,560.1 million, a 12.5% increase excluding divestitures and 9.0% including them, with contributions from core pricing (5.7%) and positive volume (0.9%) [8][9][30] - Adjusted EBITDA increased to $426.1 million, with a margin of 27.3%, up from 26.1% in Q1 2024 [8][9][33] - The net loss from continuing operations was $213.9 million, compared to a loss of $195.8 million in Q1 2024 [9][25] Strategic Developments - The company utilized proceeds from the sale of its Environmental Services business to significantly reduce its debt, enhancing its path to an investment-grade credit rating [2][5] - GFL repurchased 31,725,083 subordinate voting shares, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2][8] - The company plans to continue opportunistic share repurchases in the future [2] Segment Performance - Revenue from Canada was $494.0 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.9%, while the U.S. segment generated $1,066.1 million in revenue with a margin of 33.8% [33] - The solid waste segment's total revenue was $1,560.1 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA of $497.9 million [33] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for Q1 2025 was $13.7 million, down from $16.4 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to increased cash capital expenditures [9][20] - Cash at the end of the period was $537.2 million, a significant increase from $133.8 million at the end of 2024 [28][29]