Core Insights - Red Dog Equity LLC has sold Superior Waste Industries, LLC to GFL Environmental Inc. in an all-cash transaction [1] - Superior Waste was established in March 2022 and has made several acquisitions to expand its market presence [1] - The partnership between Red Dog Equity and Superior Waste was highlighted as a key factor in the successful outcome of the sale [1] Company Overview - Red Dog Equity LLC is a private equity firm focused on investing in lower middle-market companies with strong growth potential [2] - Superior Waste Industries, LLC is an environmental services holding company based in Shawnee, Oklahoma [1] - GFL Environmental Inc. is a publicly traded company on the NYSE under the ticker GFL [1] Transaction Details - The transaction was characterized as an all-cash deal, indicating a straightforward financial exchange [1] - Stifel acted as the exclusive financial advisor to Superior Waste during this transaction [1] Leadership and Partnerships - Billy Dietrich, founder and CEO of Superior Waste, expressed gratitude for the support received from Red Dog Equity [1] - Red Dog Equity's co-managing partners emphasized the importance of their partnership with entrepreneurial leaders like Dietrich [1] - The Pritzker Organization and Monroe Capital were mentioned as investor partners in the transaction [1]

Group 1 - The analyst maintains a hold rating for GFL Environmental, believing that the valuation has already accounted for potential upsides [1] - The second quarter of 2025 results were strong, indicating continued effective execution by the company [1] - The investment approach focuses on understanding core business economics, including competitive moat, unit economics, reinvestment opportunities, and management quality [1] Group 2 - The analyst emphasizes the importance of long-term free cash flow generation and shareholder value creation in investment decisions [1] - There is a focus on sectors with strong secular tailwinds, which may present better investment opportunities [1] - The analyst aims to provide analytical and accessible insights to help readers identify high-quality, long-term investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - GFL Environmental Inc. announced that Green Infrastructure Partners (GIP) has entered into a definitive agreement with Energy Capital Partners (ECP) to recapitalize its business at an enterprise value of $4.25 billion, highlighting the growth and value creation potential of GIP since its establishment in 2022 [1][3]. Financial Summary - GIP will receive gross proceeds of $775 million, with approximately $585 million intended for shareholder distribution and $175 million allocated to its balance sheet for future growth [2]. - GFL will receive about $200 million from the shareholder distribution, resulting in GFL owning a 30.1% interest in GIP valued at approximately $895 million post-transaction [2]. - Pro forma for the transaction, GIP's total equity value will be around $3 billion [2]. Management Insights - Patrick Dovigi, CEO of GFL, emphasized that the recapitalization reflects the quality of GIP's management and business, and the proceeds will be used for corporate purposes, including de-leveraging and pursuing growth strategies [3]. - Dovigi expressed confidence in creating $1 billion of value for GFL shareholders through the investment in GIP, noting that the original investment of $250 million has grown to approximately $1.1 billion in just over three years [3]. Strategic Partnerships - ECP was selected as a partner for this transaction due to its expertise in critical infrastructure and a strong track record of value creation [3]. - ECP's involvement is expected to provide GIP with significant capital to execute on a compelling M&A pipeline, enhancing growth and margins [3]. Company Overview - GFL is the fourth largest diversified environmental services company in North America, providing solid waste management services across Canada and 18 U.S. states, with a workforce of over 15,000 employees [4].

[Unaudited Interim Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements](index=1&type=section&id=Unaudited%20Interim%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) GFL's H1 2025 financial statements reflect a significant net income turnaround due to divestitures, alongside reduced liabilities and increased equity [Consolidated Statements of Operations and Comprehensive (Loss) Income](index=2&type=section&id=Unaudited%20Interim%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations%20and%20Comprehensive%20(Loss)%20Income) GFL achieved a significant net income turnaround in H1 2025, primarily due to a major divestiture, with revenue from continuing operations growing by 7.4% Key Performance Indicators (Six Months Ended June 30) | Metric | 2025 | 2024 | Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Revenue** | $3,235.3 M | $3,013.4 M | +7.4% | | **Net Income (Loss) from Continuing Operations** | $60.3 M | ($727.7 M) | Turnaround to Profit | | **Net Income from Discontinued Operations** | $3,620.8 M | $78.9 M | +4489.1% | | **Net Income (Loss) Attributable to GFL** | $3,685.9 M | ($644.0 M) | Turnaround to Profit | Earnings Per Share (Six Months Ended June 30) | EPS Type | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Basic EPS (Continuing Operations)** | $0.10 | ($2.05) | | **Basic EPS (Discontinued Operations)** | $9.57 | $0.21 | | **Total Basic EPS** | $9.67 | ($1.84) | [Consolidated Statements of Financial Position](index=4&type=section&id=Unaudited%20Interim%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Financial%20Position) Total assets decreased to **$18.53 billion** due to divestitures, while liabilities significantly reduced and shareholders' equity increased by June 30, 2025 Balance Sheet Summary | Account | June 30, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Assets** | $18,527.1 M | $21,207.4 M | | **Total Liabilities** | $10,639.6 M | $13,985.7 M | | **Total Shareholders' Equity** | $7,887.5 M | $7,221.7 M | [Consolidated Statements of Changes in Shareholders' Equity](index=5&type=section&id=Unaudited%20Interim%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Changes%20in%20Shareholders'%20Equity) Shareholders' equity increased by **$665.8 million** in H1 2025, driven by net income and partially offset by significant share repurchases - Key equity movements in H1 2025 include a net income of **$3,685.9 million**, which significantly increased retained earnings[8](index=8&type=chunk) - The company executed a significant share buyback, repurchasing and cancelling **35,195,241 shares** for a total cost of **$2,460.5 million**[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Dividends issued and paid during the six-month period totaled **$15.9 million**[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=6&type=section&id=Unaudited%20Interim%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) H1 2025 saw **$479.6 million** in operating cash flow, a **$4.95 billion** investing inflow from divestitures, and a **$5.42 billion** financing outflow for debt and share repurchases Cash Flow Summary (Six Months Ended June 30) | Activity | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Operating Activities** | $479.6 M | $627.8 M | | **Investing Activities** | $4,949.4 M | ($1,060.3 M) | | **Financing Activities** | ($5,418.1 M) | $436.6 M | - Investing activities were dominated by **$5,820.5 million** in proceeds from divestitures[11](index=11&type=chunk) - Financing activities included significant use of cash for repayment of long-term debt (**$3,819.0 million**) and repurchase of subordinate voting shares (**$2,412.2 million**)[11](index=11&type=chunk) [Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements](index=8&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20the%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) This section provides detailed explanations of GFL's accounting policies, significant transactions, and financial instrument disclosures for the interim period [Note 1: Reporting Entity](index=8&type=section&id=1.%20REPORTING%20ENTITY) GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services across North America, with shares traded on the NYSE and TSX - GFL provides non-hazardous solid waste management services through a network of facilities in Canada and the United States[14](index=14&type=chunk) - The company's subordinate voting shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker '**GFL**'[13](index=13&type=chunk) [Note 2: Summary of Material Accounting Policies](index=8&type=section&id=2.%20SUMMARY%20OF%20MATERIAL%20ACCOUNTING%20POLICIES) The financial statements follow IAS 34, with the Environmental Services divestiture classified as a discontinued operation, impacting comparative presentations - On March 1, 2025, GFL completed the divestiture of its Environmental Services line of business for an enterprise value of **$8.0 billion**[24](index=24&type=chunk) - Following the divestiture, GFL retained an approximate **44% non-controlling equity interest** in GFL Environmental Services[24](index=24&type=chunk) - The divested business is now presented as a discontinued operation, and prior period comparative figures in the statements of operations have been re-presented for consistency[23](index=23&type=chunk)[24](index=24&type=chunk) [Note 3: Business Combinations and Investments](index=10&type=section&id=3.%20BUSINESS%20COMBINATIONS%20AND%20INVESTMENTS) GFL acquired 6 businesses for **$277.8 million** in H1 2025, significantly increasing investments in associates to **$1.85 billion**, including a call option for divested equity - Acquired **6 businesses** for a total of **$277.8 million** in cash during the first six months of 2025[27](index=27&type=chunk)[28](index=28&type=chunk) - As part of the divestiture, GFL holds a Call Option to repurchase the remaining equity of GFL Environmental Services, which is valued at **$200.0 million** and classified as a long-term asset[34](index=34&type=chunk)[35](index=35&type=chunk) - The company maintains investments in renewable natural gas (RNG) projects through joint ventures, with a carrying value of **$111.7 million** as of June 30, 2025[37](index=37&type=chunk) [Note 4: Property and Equipment](index=12&type=section&id=4.%20PROPERTY%20AND%20EQUIPMENT) Net property and equipment decreased to **$6.83 billion** by June 30, 2025, primarily due to **$1.62 billion** in disposals from the Environmental Services divestiture Property and Equipment, Net Carrying Amount | Date | Carrying Amount | | :--- | :--- | | December 31, 2024 | $7,851.7 M | | June 30, 2025 | $6,834.8 M | [Note 5: Goodwill and Intangible Assets](index=13&type=section&id=5.%20GOODWILL%20AND%20INTANGIBLE%20ASSETS) Goodwill decreased to **$6.59 billion** and net intangible assets to **$1.63 billion**, primarily due to disposals related to the divestiture Goodwill and Intangible Assets, Net Carrying Amount | Account | June 30, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Goodwill** | $6,589.1 M | $8,065.8 M | | **Intangible Assets, Net** | $1,634.6 M | $2,833.2 M | [Note 6: Landfill Closure and Post-Closure Obligations](index=14&type=section&id=6.%20LANDFILL%20CLOSURE%20AND%20POST-CLOSURE%20OBLIGATIONS) Total landfill closure and post-closure obligations slightly increased to **$1.07 billion** by June 30, 2025, due to new provisions and accretion Landfill Closure and Post-Closure Obligations | Date | Obligation Amount | | :--- | :--- | | December 31, 2024 | $1,050.4 M | | June 30, 2025 | $1,070.5 M | [Note 7: Long-Term Debt](index=15&type=section&id=7.%20LONG-TERM%20DEBT) GFL significantly reduced long-term debt to **$6.7 billion** by June 30, 2025, utilizing divestiture proceeds for major debt repayments Total Long-Term Debt | Date | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | December 31, 2024 | $9,999.5 M | | June 30, 2025 | $6,695.7 M | - On March 4, 2025, the company repaid the entire outstanding principal on its Term Loan B Facility[53](index=53&type=chunk) - On March 14, 2025, GFL repaid the entire outstanding principal amounts of its **3.750% 2025 Secured Notes (US$750.0 million)** and **5.125% 2026 Secured Notes (US$500.0 million)**[49](index=49&type=chunk) [Note 8: Interest and Other Finance Costs](index=17&type=section&id=8.%20INTEREST%20AND%20OTHER%20FINANCE%20COSTS) Interest and other finance costs slightly decreased to **$331.5 million** in H1 2025, including one-time costs for hedged arrangements and accelerated amortization Interest and Other Finance Costs (Six Months Ended June 30) | Component | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Interest | $238.8 M | $278.6 M | | Termination of hedged arrangements | $30.5 M | $17.2 M | | Amortization of deferred financing costs | $26.9 M | $12.0 M | | **Total** | **$331.5 M** | **$335.8 M** | [Note 9: Income (Loss) Per Share](index=18&type=section&id=9.%20INCOME%20(LOSS)%20PER%20SHARE) Total basic EPS significantly improved to **$9.67** in H1 2025, primarily driven by a **$9.57** contribution from discontinued operations Basic Earnings (Loss) Per Share (Six Months Ended June 30) | Category | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Continuing operations | $0.10 | ($2.05) | | Discontinued operations | $9.57 | $0.21 | | **Total operations** | **$9.67** | **($1.84)** | [Note 10: Revenue](index=19&type=section&id=10.%20REVENUE) Revenue from continuing operations grew to **$3.24 billion** in H1 2025, primarily driven by Commercial/Industrial, Landfill, Transfer, and Material Recovery services Revenue by Service Type (Six Months Ended June 30) | Service Type | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total collection | $2,211.5 M | $2,160.8 M | | Landfill | $569.5 M | $509.5 M | | Transfer | $455.1 M | $393.2 M | | Material recovery | $253.3 M | $203.1 M | | **Total Revenue** | **$3,235.3 M** | **$3,013.4 M** | [Note 11: Operating Segments](index=19&type=section&id=11.%20OPERATING%20SEGMENTS) In H1 2025, the USA segment generated **$2.18 billion** in revenue and **$754.0 million** in Adjusted EBITDA, contributing to a total Adjusted EBITDA of **$941.2 million** for continuing operations Segment Performance (Six Months Ended June 30, 2025) | Segment | Revenue | Adjusted EBITDA | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Canada | $1,050.7 M | $325.7 M | | USA | $2,184.6 M | $754.0 M | | **Solid Waste Total** | **$3,235.3 M** | **$1,079.7 M** | - Total Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations for H1 2025 was **$941.2 million**, an increase from **$823.8 million** in H1 2024[65](index=65&type=chunk)[66](index=66&type=chunk) [Note 12: Shareholders' Capital](index=21&type=section&id=12.%20SHAREHOLDERS'%20CAPITAL) GFL repurchased and cancelled **35,195,241** subordinate voting shares in H1 2025, including NCIB purchases, and converted **3,681,508** preferred shares - The company repurchased and cancelled a total of **35,195,241** subordinate voting shares in H1 2025[70](index=70&type=chunk) - Under its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB), GFL repurchased **11,088,916** subordinate voting shares during the six months ended June 30, 2025[69](index=69&type=chunk) - On March 31, 2025, **3,681,508 Series A Preferred Shares** were converted into **4,197,272** subordinate voting shares[71](index=71&type=chunk) [Note 13: Supplemental Cash Flow Information](index=23&type=section&id=13.%20SUPPLEMENTAL%20CASH%20FLOW%20INFORMATION) Net change in non-cash working capital resulted in a **$153.8 million** cash outflow in H1 2025, mainly due to a decrease in accounts payable Changes in Non-Cash Working Capital (Six Months Ended June 30) | Item | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Accounts payable and accrued liabilities | ($167.8 M) | $53.9 M | | Trade and other receivables, net | ($1.2 M) | ($121.1 M) | | Prepaid expenses and other assets | $15.2 M | ($62.7 M) | | **Total Change** | **($153.8 M)** | **($129.9 M)** | [Note 14: Financial Instruments and Risk Management](index=23&type=section&id=14.%20FINANCIAL%20INSTRUMENTS%20AND%20RISK%20MANAGEMENT) The fair value of GFL's outstanding Notes was **$5.86 billion** as of June 30, 2025, with the Call Option classified as a Level 3 fair value instrument Fair Value of Debt Instruments (June 30, 2025) | Instrument | Carrying Value | Fair Value | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Notes | $5,864.4 M | $5,860.1 M | | 4.375% Bonds | $286.5 M | $285.3 M | - The Call Option to repurchase GFL Environmental Services is measured at fair value and classified as a **Level 3 instrument**, using an option pricing model[80](index=80&type=chunk) [Note 15: Commitments](index=24&type=section&id=15.%20COMMITMENTS) GFL had significant off-balance sheet commitments totaling **$396.0 million** in letters of credit and **$1.76 billion** in performance bonds as of June 30, 2025 - Outstanding letters of credit totaled approximately **$396.0 million**[83](index=83&type=chunk) - Issued performance bonds totaled **$1,757.6 million**[84](index=84&type=chunk) [Note 16: Related Party Transactions](index=24&type=section&id=16.%20RELATED%20PARTY%20TRANSACTIONS) GFL engaged in related party transactions in H1 2025, including a final payment on a CEO-controlled note and business with GFL Environmental Services - The note payable to an entity controlled by CEO Patrick Dovigi was fully paid off, with the balance reduced to **$nil** from **$2.9 million**[85](index=85&type=chunk) - GFL paid **$33.5 million** to satisfy tax obligations from the CEO's relocation to the U.S., an amount expected to be refunded[86](index=86&type=chunk) - Post-divestiture, GFL entered into transactions with GFL Environmental Services, resulting in revenue of **$12.7 million** and deferred revenue of **$70.0 million** in H1 2025[89](index=89&type=chunk) [Note 17: Discontinued Operations](index=25&type=section&id=17.%20DISCONTINUED%20OPERATIONS) The divestiture of GFL Environmental Services generated a net income of **$3.62 billion** from discontinued operations in H1 2025, including a **$4.47 billion** pre-tax gain Discontinued Operations Summary (Six Months Ended June 30, 2025) | Item | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | Net income (pre-disposal) | $27.3 M | | Gain on disposal (pre-tax) | $4,466.8 M | | Income tax on gain on disposal | ($873.3 M) | | **Net income from discontinued operations** | **$3,620.8 M** | - GFL received proceeds of **$5,929.6 million**, net of transaction costs, upon completion of the divestiture[91](index=91&type=chunk) [Note 18: Subsequent Events](index=25&type=section&id=18.%20SUBSEQUENT%20EVENTS) New U.S. tax legislation, the 'One Big, Beautiful Bill Act', was enacted on July 4, 2025, with its impact on GFL's financials currently under evaluation - On July 4, 2025, the OBBB Act was signed into law, introducing changes to U.S. tax policy, including bonus depreciation and interest expense limitations[92](index=92&type=chunk) - The effects of these tax law changes are not incorporated in the financial statements for the period ended June 30, 2025, as the law was enacted after the balance sheet date[92](index=92&type=chunk)

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved consolidated revenue of $1,675,000,000 for the quarter, which is 9.5% ahead of the prior year pro forma for divestitures [14] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for the second quarter was 30.7%, reflecting a 230 basis point increase over the prior year and 60 basis points ahead of guidance [16] - Adjusted free cash flow was approximately $137,000,000, better than planned due to adjusted EBITDA outperformance [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company completed three small tuck-in acquisitions during the quarter and anticipates closing three more soon, maintaining a robust M&A pipeline [12] - Volume growth was positive across both U.S. and Canadian geographies, with U.S. volume growth accelerating by over 200 basis points sequentially [15] - The company expects pricing to be between 5.5% and 5.75% for the full year, an increase of 25 basis points from the original guidance [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canadian volume growth was reported at 6.3% for the quarter, with EPR-related activities contributing positively [47] - U.S. volume growth turned positive despite a slowdown in industrial and construction-oriented sectors, indicating resilience in the business model [46] - The company noted that exposure to cyclical end markets is low overall, positioning it well for potential recovery in the macroeconomic environment [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on densifying existing markets where it has underutilized post-collection assets, aiming for the highest returns on invested capital [42] - The strategic growth investments in EPR and the positive underlying trends from market selection are expected to offset demand-side pressures [11] - The company is increasing its adjusted EBITDA target by $50,000,000 or 2.6% for the year, reflecting confidence in its operational resilience [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver industry-leading financial performance despite external headwinds [23] - The operational resiliency demonstrated in the quarter reinforces the belief that the company is uniquely positioned for value creation [23] - Management anticipates a modest working capital investment for the year, with net CapEx expected to be approximately $750,000,000 [21] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing a lower current year contribution from M&A activity but expects a larger rollover amount into 2026, setting up for exceptional growth [13] - The company is reaffirming its adjusted free cash flow expectation of $750,000,000 despite increased CapEx [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on GIP business options - Management is in the final stages of concluding the process with two bidders and expects a favorable result, which will lead to a significant rebase of equity [28][29] Question: Margin improvements and self-help levers - Management highlighted improvements in pricing, labor turnover, and synergy realization as key contributors to margin expansion [31][35] Question: M&A pipeline visibility - The company is on track to achieve its M&A spending target of $700,000,000 to $900,000,000 for the year, with a focus on tuck-in acquisitions [40][41] Question: Volume performance specifics - EPR is contributing positively to volume growth, with Canadian volume growth reported at 6.3% for the quarter [46][55] Question: Impact of bonus depreciation on free cash flow - Bonus depreciation is expected to provide a $25,000,000 tailwind this year, with a potential increase in free cash flow conversion by 100 to 200 basis points [60][63] Question: Fleet conversion status - Approximately 20% to 25% of the fleet is currently CNG, with plans to increase this to 50% to 55% over the next few years [104]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q2 2025 was $1,675 million, a 9.5% increase compared to the prior year pro forma for divestitures [12] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for Q2 was 30.7%, reflecting a 230 basis point increase year-over-year and 60 basis points ahead of guidance [14] - Adjusted free cash flow was approximately $137 million, exceeding expectations due to adjusted EBITDA outperformance [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Solid waste adjusted EBITDA margins reached 34.7%, the highest Q2 in the company's history [7] - Pricing increased by 5.8%, 30 basis points ahead of plan, with expectations for full-year pricing now between 5.5% and 5.75% [13] - Volume growth was positive across both U.S. and Canadian geographies, with U.S. volume growth accelerating by over 200 basis points sequentially [13][46] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canadian volume growth was reported at 6.3% for Q2, with EPR-related activities contributing significantly [46] - U.S. volume growth turned positive despite industrial and construction-oriented slowdowns, indicating resilience in the business model [46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on densifying existing markets and has a robust M&A pipeline, with expectations to deploy $700 million to $900 million in M&A for the year [39] - The strategic growth investments in EPR are expected to yield significant returns, with ongoing operational efficiencies contributing to margin expansion [10][70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate external headwinds and achieve record-setting performance [7] - The updated guidance reflects an increase in adjusted EBITDA target by $50 million, or 2.6%, despite economic uncertainties [11] Other Important Information - The company completed three small tuck-in acquisitions in the quarter and anticipates closing three more soon [10] - The impact of foreign exchange rates is significant, with a $30 million impact on annualized revenues for every 1 point move in FX [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential options for the GIP business - Management is in the final stages of evaluating options for the GIP business, with two final bidders and a favorable outcome expected [27] Question: Update on margin improvements and self-help levers - Management highlighted pricing outperformance and improved labor turnover as key contributors to margin expansion, with expectations for continued improvement [32] Question: M&A pipeline visibility - The company is on track to achieve the high end of its M&A spending guidance, focusing on tuck-in acquisitions within existing markets [40] Question: Volume performance amidst economic weakness - Management noted that despite macroeconomic challenges, volume performance remains strong due to strategic market selection and investments [44] Question: Clarification on EPR contributions to volume - EPR is contributing significantly to volume growth, with management indicating that it was included in the original guidance [55] Question: Impact of bonus depreciation on free cash flow - Bonus depreciation is expected to provide a $25 million to $30 million tailwind, positively affecting free cash flow conversion [60] Question: Fleet conversion to CNG trucks - The company is progressing towards converting 50% of its fleet to CNG trucks over the next few years, particularly in large residential contracts [103]

分组1 - GFL Environmental Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.19 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but down from $0.21 per share a year ago [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.21 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.77% and down from $1.51 billion year-over-year [2] - GFL Environmental shares have increased approximately 9.5% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 8.3% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.22 on revenues of $1.21 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.52 on revenues of $4.77 billion [7] - The Waste Removal Services industry, to which GFL belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 31% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8]

Core Insights - GFL Environmental Inc. reported a strong second quarter in 2025, with a revenue increase of 9.5% year-over-year, driven by organic price and volume growth [2][5][6] - The company achieved an Adjusted EBITDA of $515.1 million, reflecting a 14.6% increase compared to the same period in 2024, and an Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 230 basis points to 30.7% [5][6] - GFL has raised its full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $1.950 billion and $1.975 billion, indicating confidence in continued growth despite macroeconomic challenges [2][8][13] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $1,675.2 million, with 8.3% organic growth excluding divestitures, and 5.8% from core pricing [5][6] - Year-to-date revenue reached $3,235.3 million, a 10.9% increase excluding divestitures [6] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for Q2 2025 was $137.1 million, up from $111.0 million in Q2 2024, primarily due to increased Adjusted EBITDA and reduced cash interest paid [6][7] Strategic Outlook - The company maintains a robust M&A pipeline and is optimistic about meeting or exceeding its capital deployment targets for 2025 [2][5] - GFL's strategic plan focuses on driving industry-leading growth and optimizing existing operations to improve Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion [2][5] - The updated guidance for 2025 assumes a USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.37, reflecting adjustments from previous forecasts [8][9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current market trends and potential investment opportunities within specific sectors, highlighting the importance of thorough analysis in making informed investment decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Recent market fluctuations have shown a significant impact on investor sentiment, with a notable increase in volatility across various sectors [1]. - Analysts are observing a shift towards technology and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to outperform traditional industries in the coming quarters [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Companies within the technology sector have reported strong earnings growth, with some experiencing year-over-year increases of over 20% [1]. - The renewable energy sector is gaining traction, with investments expected to rise by approximately 15% annually as governments push for greener initiatives [2]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Despite the positive outlook for certain sectors, potential risks include regulatory changes and geopolitical tensions that could affect market stability [1]. - Companies must navigate supply chain disruptions that have been exacerbated by recent global events, impacting their operational efficiency [2].

Company Overview - GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.19, reflecting a -9.5% change, and revenues anticipated at $1.21 billion, down 19.6% from the previous year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for July 30, and if the actual results exceed expectations, the stock may experience an upward movement; conversely, a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.65% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that GFL's Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +36.84%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11]. - GFL currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, when combined with the positive Earnings ESP, indicates a strong potential for an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, GFL was expected to post earnings of $0.04 per share but instead reported a loss of -$0.06, resulting in a surprise of -250.00% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, GFL has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Industry Comparison - Republic Services (RSG), another player in the Waste Removal Services industry, is expected to report earnings of $1.75 per share for the same quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +8.7%, with revenues projected at $4.27 billion, up 5.5% [17]. - Republic Services has also seen a slight revision of its consensus EPS estimate down by 0.4% over the last 30 days, but a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in a positive Earnings ESP of +0.16%, suggesting a likely earnings beat [18].