Financial Performance - Total originations reached $6.7 billion in Q4 2024, a 86% increase from $3.6 billion in Q4 2023[3] - Net revenue for Q4 2024 was $373.0 million, compared to $57.2 million in Q4 2023, marking a 552% increase[3] - Net income attributable to Guild was $97.9 million in Q4 2024, a significant recovery from a net loss of $93.0 million in Q4 2023[3] - Adjusted net income for 2024 totaled $90.2 million, compared to $48.0 million in the prior year, reflecting a 88% increase[4] - Total revenue for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was $372,987,000, compared to $159,257,000 for the same period in 2023, representing a significant increase[35] - Net income attributable to Guild for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was $97,942,000, a recovery from a net loss of $66,892,000 in the same quarter of 2023[35] - Adjusted net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $90.2 million, significantly up from $48.0 million in 2023[41] Balance Sheet and Assets - The servicing portfolio's unpaid principal balance was $93.0 billion as of December 31, 2024, up 9% from $85.0 billion a year earlier[4] - Total assets increased to $4,768,303 thousand in 2024 from $3,676,720 thousand in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 29.7%[33] - Mortgage loans held for sale at fair value rose to $1,523,447 thousand in 2024, up from $901,227 thousand in 2023, indicating an increase of about 68.9%[33] - The company reported a significant increase in mortgage servicing rights, valued at $1,343,829 thousand in 2024 compared to $1,161,357 thousand in 2023, a rise of approximately 15.7%[33] - Total liabilities grew to $3,514,293 thousand in 2024 from $2,493,227 thousand in 2023, marking an increase of around 40.9%[33] - Retained earnings increased to $1,200,908 thousand in 2024, up from $1,135,387 thousand in 2023, reflecting a growth of about 5.8%[33] Shareholder Returns and Equity - The company declared a special cash dividend of $0.50 per share, payable on March 31, 2025[13] - Return on average equity for 2024 was 8.0%, recovering from a negative 3.2% in the prior year[4] - Book value per share increased to $20.24 as of December 31, 2024, from $19.36 in 2023[44] - Tangible net book value per share rose to $16.59 as of December 31, 2024, compared to $15.90 in 2023[44] - Average stockholders' equity for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $1,218.8 million, slightly up from $1,216.4 million in 2023[43] Operational Metrics - The gain on sale margin on originations was 317 basis points in Q4 2024, down from 330 basis points in Q4 2023[7] - The gain on sale margin for total loans sold was 317 basis points for the three months ended December 31, 2024, compared to 330 basis points in the previous quarter[38] - The purchase origination percentage for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was 82%, down from 88% in the previous quarter[38] - The refinance recapture rate increased to 53% for the three months ended December 31, 2024, compared to 41% in the previous quarter[38] - Total expenses for the three months ended December 31, 2024, were $244,167,000, a decrease from $252,090,000 in the previous quarter[35] Stock and Compensation - The company repurchased 27,641 shares at an average price of $13.95 per share during Q4 2024[12] - The company reported stock-based compensation of $9.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2024[42] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing M&A opportunities to enhance market share and origination volume[21] - The company plans to adapt to technological changes and improve its origination and servicing platform to maintain competitive advantage[21] Non-GAAP Measures - Adjusted net income is defined as earnings excluding certain non-cash expenses, reflecting the company's focus on core operations[25] - The company emphasizes the importance of non-GAAP financial measures to evaluate operating performance and establish operational goals[30] Cash and Cash Equivalents - The cash and cash equivalents stood at $118.2 million as of December 31, 2024, slightly down from $120.3 million a year earlier[14] - The increase in cash and cash equivalents was modest, decreasing slightly to $118,203 thousand in 2024 from $120,260 thousand in 2023[33] Earnings Per Share - The basic earnings per share for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was $1.59, compared to a loss of $1.09 per share in the previous quarter[35] - The weighted average shares outstanding for diluted Class A and Class B common stock was 62,476,000 for the three months ended December 31, 2024[35] - The weighted average shares outstanding for diluted earnings per share was 62.5 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024[41] Other Financial Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was $30.9 million, compared to $46.4 million in the previous quarter[42] - Return on average equity for the three months ended December 31, 2024, was 32.5%, a recovery from a negative 22.5% in the previous quarter[43] - The change in fair value of MSRs due to model inputs and assumptions was a loss of $107.4 million for the three months ended December 31, 2024[42]

Loan Originations - Guild originated $6.9 billion of mortgage loans during the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $6.5 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2024, representing a 5.8% increase[107] - Purchase originations accounted for 88.1% of total originations for the three months ended September 30, 2024, down from 92.3% for the three months ended June 30, 2024[108] - Total originations for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, reached $17,283,964, a 48.5% increase from $11,639,781 in the same period of 2023[121] - The number of total originations (units) increased to 51.2 thousand, up 43.4% from 35.7 thousand year-over-year[121] - Total originations increased by $0.4 billion, or 5.8%, to $6.9 billion for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the previous quarter[182] - Total originations for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, increased by $5.6 billion, or 48.5%, to $17.3 billion compared to the same period in 2023[184] Financial Performance - Guild reported a net loss of $66.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to a net income of $37.6 million for the three months ended June 30, 2024[110] - Adjusted net income for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $31.7 million, compared to $30.7 million for the three months ended June 30, 2024[111] - Net revenue increased by $15.3 million, or 7.3%, to $224.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024[182] - The company experienced a significant decrease in net revenue, reporting $159,257 thousand for the three months ended September 30, 2024, down 44.3% from $285,685 thousand in the previous quarter[133] - Total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2024, increased by 5.8% compared to the previous quarter, in line with the increase in average UPB of the servicing portfolio[189] - Total revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, increased by 12.2% to $204,857,000 compared to $182,542,000 for the same period in 2023[191] Servicing Portfolio - Guild's servicing portfolio increased to $91.5 billion of UPB as of September 30, 2024, up from $89.1 billion as of June 30, 2024, reflecting a 2.7% growth[109] - The servicing data showed an increase in UPB (period end) to $91,485,163, representing a 9.3% growth from $83,705,731 in the previous year[121] - Average UPB of servicing portfolio rose to $88,259,531, reflecting an 8.6% increase compared to $81,299,359 year-over-year[150] - Average UPB of the servicing portfolio increased by $2.6 billion, or 2.9%, to $90.3 billion as of September 30, 2024[188] Expenses and Losses - Total expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were $252,090 thousand, an increase of 4.5% from $241,158 thousand in the previous quarter[133] - The provision for foreclosure losses increased by $1.1 million, or 223.6%, for the three months ended September 30, 2024, due to an increase in expected losses[189] - Total salaries, incentive compensation, and benefits expense for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $188,938, a 5.3% increase from $178,871 in the previous quarter[163] - Total salaries, incentive compensation, and benefits expense increased by 32.4% to $528,010,000 for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $398,660,000 for the same period in 2023[164] Market Conditions - The average 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 50 basis points during the three months ended September 30, 2024, contributing to increased refinancing activity[116] - The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts total mortgage originations for purchases to increase by 4.0% in 2024 to $1.29 trillion[117] Equity and Book Value - Guild's tangible net book value per share was $15.14 as of September 30, 2024, down from $15.90 as of December 31, 2023[113] - Total stockholders' equity attributable to Guild decreased to $1,157,356 thousand from $1,183,156 thousand year-over-year[132] - The book value per share decreased to $18.85 from $19.36 year-over-year[132] Cash Flow and Financing - Net cash used in operating activities was $(861,717,000) for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $(110,671,000) for the same period in 2023[201] - Net cash provided by financing activities rose significantly to $961.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, up from $187.6 million in the same period of 2023[205] - The company believes its cash flows from operations will be sufficient to fund operations and meet material cash requirements for the next 12 months[194] Acquisitions and Growth Strategy - Guild acquired certain assets of four mortgage lenders for approximately $25.0 million to support its growth strategy[115] - Total commitments to originate forward mortgage loans reached approximately $1.7 billion as of September 30, 2024, compared to $710.9 million as of December 31, 2023[208]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted net income of $31.7 million for Q3 2024, with total loan originations of $6.9 billion, reflecting a 6% sequential increase and a 59% increase year-over-year [6][16] - Net revenue for the quarter was $159 million, down from $286 million in the previous quarter, resulting in a net loss of $67 million compared to a net income of $38 million in Q2 2024 [16][19] - The gain on sale margin for Q3 was 333 basis points, slightly up from 326 basis points in the prior quarter [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The origination segment achieved a net income of $6 million, marking profitability despite market volatility [17] - The servicing segment's portfolio grew to $91 billion, but reported a net loss of $75 million due to a downward valuation adjustment of mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) of $124 million [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a significant portion of its loan portfolio could benefit from refinancing opportunities as interest rates decrease, with approximately 25% of unpaid balances at rates above 6% [12] - The company experienced an increase in pull-through adjusted lock volume, attributed to rate declines in Q3 [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on achieving profitable long-term market share gains through both organic recruiting and opportunistic acquisitions [9][23] - Investments in technology and customer relationships are central to the company's strategy, supporting its "customers for life" approach [14][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning to capitalize on market opportunities, despite acknowledging that market recovery may take longer than expected [23] - The company anticipates continued growth driven by organic expansion and strategic acquisitions, while remaining disciplined in its approach [23] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 24,000 shares at an average price of $14.29 per share during Q3 2024 [21] - As of September 30, 2024, the company had $106 million in cash and cash equivalents, with significant unutilized loan funding capacity [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Fair value mark of $124 million - Management acknowledged the size of the mark and indicated that it could reverse if rates continue to stabilize [25][27] Question: Margins response since the end of September - Management reported steady margins, particularly in the purchase business, which is expected to remain stable [28][29] Question: Production from Academy acquisition - The company did not disclose specific production figures from the Academy acquisition but noted it previously accounted for about 20% of volume [30] Question: Opportunities in home equity products - Management highlighted a broad product base and increasing interest in reverse mortgage products, focusing on first-time homebuyers [32] Question: Capital allocation strategy - Management indicated a strong focus on organic growth while remaining opportunistic regarding M&A as market conditions evolve [33] Question: Hedging MSR assets - The company traditionally relies on natural hedges through production rather than financial hedges, maintaining a focus on retail and purchase business [36][37] Question: Prepayment speeds in Q4 - Management noted potential timing mismatches in prepayment speeds but emphasized a long-term strategy for servicing and production balance [41] Question: Excess cash in warehouse lines - The company reported significant excess cash available for potential M&A opportunities, while maintaining low leverage for flexibility [43]

Guild mortgage Third Quarter 2024 Investor Presentation NOVEMBER 6, 2024 Disclaimer 2 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements reflect our current views with respect to, among other things, future events and our financial performance. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as "may," "should," "could," "predict," "potential," "believe," "will likely result," "expect," "continue," "will ...

分组1 - Guild Holdings Company (GHLD) reported quarterly earnings of $0.51 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.52 per share, but showing an increase from $0.48 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of -1.92% [1] - The company posted revenues of $159.26 million for the quarter ended September 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 46.33%, and down from $257.26 million year-over-year [2] - Guild has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times over the last four quarters, while it has topped consensus revenue estimates two times as well [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 0.2% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 21.2% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.45 on revenues of $299.98 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.59 on revenues of $1.11 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Financial - Miscellaneous Services is currently in the top 29% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [8]

Financial Performance - Total originations for Q3 2024 were $6.9 billion, up 6% sequentially and 59% year-over-year[2]. - Net revenue for Q3 2024 was $159.3 million, a decrease of 44% from the prior quarter[7]. - Net loss attributable to Guild in Q3 2024 was $66.9 million, compared to a net income of $37.6 million in the prior quarter[3]. - Adjusted net income for Q3 2024 was $31.7 million, up 3% from the previous quarter[7]. - The company reported a diluted loss per share of $(1.09) for the current period, compared to a diluted earnings per share of $0.60 in the previous period[34]. - The company’s total expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were $252,090, an increase of 4.0% from $241,158 in the previous quarter[35]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $46,400, an increase from $41,600 in the previous quarter[43]. Asset and Equity Changes - Total assets increased to $4,644,441 thousand as of September 30, 2024, compared to $3,676,720 thousand on December 31, 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 26.4%[31]. - Total stockholders' equity decreased to $1,157,896 thousand from $1,183,493 thousand, a decline of about 2.2%[32]. - Total stockholders' equity attributable to Guild as of September 30, 2024, was $1,157.4 million, down from $1,183.2 million as of December 31, 2023[46]. - The tangible common equity as of September 30, 2024, was $929.1 million, compared to $971.9 million as of December 31, 2023[46]. - The book value per share as of September 30, 2024, was $18.85, down from $19.36 as of December 31, 2023[46]. - The tangible net book value per share as of September 30, 2024, was $15.14, compared to $15.90 as of December 31, 2023[46]. Loan and Servicing Metrics - The servicing portfolio's unpaid principal balance was $91.5 billion as of September 30, 2024, up 3% from the prior quarter[3]. - The company achieved a gain on sale margin on originations of 333 basis points in Q3 2024, an increase of 2 basis points from the prior quarter[7]. - The company retained mortgage servicing rights for 67% of total loans sold in Q3 2024[10]. - Mortgage loans held for sale rose significantly to $1,763,121 thousand, up from $901,227 thousand, indicating an increase of about 95.5%[31]. - The fair value of mortgage servicing rights increased to $1,197,432 thousand from $1,161,357 thousand, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.1%[31]. - The refinance recapture rate increased to 41% for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to 22% in the previous quarter[38]. Cash and Stock Activity - The cash and cash equivalents position was $106.2 million as of September 30, 2024[14]. - The company’s cash and cash equivalents decreased to $106,151 thousand from $120,260 thousand, a decline of about 11.7%[31]. - The company repurchased 23,746 shares of Class A common stock at an average price of $14.29 per share during Q3 2024[13]. - The ending shares of Class A and Class B common stock outstanding as of September 30, 2024, were 61.4 million, slightly up from 61.1 million as of December 31, 2023[46]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing M&A opportunities to enhance market share and origination volume, although specific future revenue expectations were not disclosed[22]. - The company highlighted the importance of adapting to technological changes and maintaining referral relationships to mitigate competitive pressures[22].

Core Viewpoint - Guild Holdings Company (GHLD) has experienced significant selling pressure, resulting in a 14.2% decline in stock price over the past four weeks, but analysts anticipate better earnings than previously predicted, indicating potential for recovery [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Technical Indicators - GHLD's stock is currently in oversold territory, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 27.62, suggesting a possible trend reversal [3]. - The RSI is a momentum oscillator that helps identify oversold conditions when the reading falls below 30, indicating potential entry opportunities for investors [2]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates and Analyst Sentiment - There has been a 5.2% increase in the consensus EPS estimate for GHLD over the last 30 days, driven by a strong agreement among sell-side analysts to raise earnings estimates for the current year [3]. - GHLD holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, further supporting the potential for a price rebound [3].

Market Overview - Major bourses on Wall Street rebounded after early August declines due to encouraging retail sales and initial claims reports that alleviated recession fears [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the time has come for interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in stock prices [1] - Current tensions in the Middle East may dampen the upward trajectory of the market [1] Breakout Stocks Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on breakout stocks that can capitalize on the broader uptrend in the stock market [2] - Breakout stocks are identified by their price movements within a narrow band, with optimal buying opportunities occurring just before a breakout above this trading band [2] Selected Breakout Stocks - American Guild Holdings Company (GHLD), DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. (DDI), and Travelzoo (TZOO) have been identified as breakout stocks for the day [3] Breakout Stock Selection Criteria - To select breakout stocks, it is essential to calculate support and resistance levels, where support is the lower bound and resistance is the upper bound of stock movements [4][5] - A genuine breakout occurs when the previous resistance level becomes the new support level, validated by long-term price trends [7] Screening Criteria - Stocks must show a percentage price change over four weeks between 10% and 20% [8] - Current price must be at least 90% of the 52-week high [8] - Zacks Rank must be less than or equal to 2, indicating strong buy ratings [8] - Beta for 60 months must be less than or equal to 2, and current price must be $20 or less [8] - These criteria narrow the stock universe from over 6,853 to only 23 candidates [8] Company Profiles - **American Guild Holdings Company (GHLD)**: Provides financial services, primarily residential mortgage loans in the U.S., with an expected earnings growth rate of 96.2% for the current year [9] - **DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. (DDI)**: Develops and publishes digital social casino games, with an expected earnings growth rate of 15.8% for the current year [10] - **Travelzoo (TZOO)**: An Internet media company with an expected earnings growth rate of 18.8% for the current year [11]

Guild Holdings Company (GHLD) could be a solid choice for investors given the company's remarkably improving earnings outlook. While the stock has been a strong performer lately, this trend might continue since analysts are still raising their earnings estimates for the company. Analysts' growing optimism on the earnings prospects of this company is driving estimates higher, which should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings est ...

Guild Holdings Company (GHLD) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.49 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.28 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.15 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 75%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.21 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.13, delivering a surprise of -38.10%. Over the last four quarters, the c ...