Core Viewpoint - Canada Goose (GOOS) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite a decline in revenues for the quarter ending December 2024, with the actual results being crucial for the stock's near-term price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on February 6, 2025, and could lead to a stock price increase if the results exceed expectations, while a miss could result in a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is $1.08 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +6.9%, while revenues are projected to be $427.8 million, down 4.5% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a stable outlook from covering analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Canada Goose is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -6.48%, suggesting a bearish sentiment among analysts [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with a positive Earnings ESP indicating a higher likelihood of an earnings beat [6][8]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 significantly increases the chances of a positive surprise, with a historical success rate of nearly 70% [8]. Historical Performance - Canada Goose has beaten consensus EPS estimates three out of the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +180% in the last reported quarter [12][13]. Conclusion - While Canada Goose does not currently appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance ahead of the earnings release [16].

Company Overview - Canada Goose (GOOS) shares increased by 9.5% to close at $11.79, with notable trading volume compared to typical sessions, and a 9.3% gain over the past four weeks [1] - The company has received exemptive relief from the Ontario Securities Commission to buy back up to 10% of its subordinate voting shares' public float through U.S.-based trading systems, part of an ongoing normal course issuer bid announced on Nov. 19, 2024 [2] Earnings Expectations - Canada Goose is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.08 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.9%, with revenues projected at $444.24 million, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous year [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that stock price movements may not sustain without trends in earnings estimate revisions [4] Industry Context - Canada Goose operates within the Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, where Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) closed 1.1% higher at $120.83, but has seen a return of -22.7% over the past month [4] - Abercrombie's consensus EPS estimate has changed by +0.2% to $3.51, representing an 18.2% increase compared to the previous year, and it currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5]

Group 1: Company Performance - Canada Goose (GOOS) closed at $10.45, reflecting a +0.1% change from the previous session, outperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.29% [1] - The company's shares increased by 3.26% over the last month, slightly lagging behind the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 3.53% and surpassing the S&P 500's gain of 2.52% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings - Canada Goose is set to disclose its earnings on February 6, 2025, with an anticipated EPS of $1.10, representing an 8.91% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate projects revenue of $444.24 million, indicating a 0.85% decline from the equivalent quarter last year [2] Group 3: Full Year Estimates - For the full year, earnings are projected at $0.75 per share and revenue at $957.64 million, showing changes of +2.74% and -2.9% respectively from the previous year [3] Group 4: Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent modifications to analyst estimates reflect near-term business trends, with positive changes indicating optimism regarding the company's profitability [3] - Canada Goose currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Rank system showing a strong track record of performance [5] Group 5: Valuation Metrics - Canada Goose has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.92, which is below the industry average Forward P/E of 16.57 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.64, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.54, indicating a favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [7] Group 6: Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, which includes Canada Goose, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 73, placing it in the top 30% of over 250 industries [8]

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Canada Goose (GOOS) ended the recent trading session at $9.89, demonstrating a -0.9% swing from the preceding day's closing price. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.16%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 0.86%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.38%.Shares of the high-end coat maker witnessed a gain of 0.6% over the previous month, beating the performance of the Retail-Wholesale sector with its loss of 4.64% and the S&P 500's loss of 2.2%.The investment community will be paying close attention to the ...

As the Head of Markets and Research at Investors Edge, John Choong's primary goal is to outperform the market over the long term, through successfully identifying sectors and companies with consistent growth potential.His comprehensive macroeconomic analysis as well as detail-orientated analysis has provided investors with actionable insights and strong-performing share tips. As a result, he is currently ranked the number one analyst in the UK, according to stock tip-recommendation website, Stockomendation. ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue in Q2 decreased by 5% year-over-year or 6% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to a decline in DTC revenue and a planned decrease in wholesale revenue [60][62] - Adjusted EBIT was CAD2.5 million, down from CAD15.6 million in the second quarter of last year, with adjusted net income attributable to shareholders at CAD5.2 million or CAD0.05 per diluted share compared to CAD16.2 million or CAD0.16 per diluted share in Q2 fiscal 2024 [71][73] - Gross profit decreased by 9% year-over-year, with gross margin declining 260 basis points to 61.3% [70] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - DTC comparable sales declined 13% year-over-year, with DTC revenue down 5% or 6% on a constant currency basis [9][62] - Wholesale revenue was down 15% or 17% on a constant currency basis, reflecting a planned lower order book [66] - Revenue in the other channel segment increased to CAD26.6 million in Q2 of fiscal 2025, up from CAD9.7 million in Q2 of fiscal 2024 [68] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America revenue decreased 3%, while Asia Pacific revenue grew 3%, mainly due to higher travel retail revenue in Greater China [61] - EMEA revenue decreased by 17%, primarily due to a planned decrease in wholesale revenue [61] - Store traffic and conversion declined year-over-year globally, although EMEA saw improved performance [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on three key operating imperatives: brand and product evolution, luxury retail execution, and operational simplification [13][21] - A new design studio in Paris has been established to support product innovation, with a focus on launching new collections [14][15] - The company aims to drive positive DTC comparable sales growth and enhance brand presence through strategic marketing initiatives [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a challenging consumer environment impacting sales, leading to a lower range for guidance [12] - There is optimism about the brand's resilience and potential for growth, particularly in the second half of the fiscal year [20][82] - The company expects to see improvements in sales performance as marketing investments ramp up and new product launches occur [64][81] Other Important Information - Inventory at the end of Q2 decreased by 9% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of decreasing inventory balance [56] - The company has introduced a new Head of Merchandising to strengthen long-term product strategy [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the shift in marketing dollars and any stores under consideration for closing? - Management indicated no current consideration for closing stores, focusing instead on driving productivity and profitability [92] - Marketing spend is expected to be slightly up year-over-year, with a more aggressive approach in the second half of the year [94] Question: What are the plans to improve comps for the remainder of the year? - Management emphasized the importance of staffing, training, and inventory management to drive sales, with positive signs in EMEA and APAC [98][100] Question: Can you elaborate on the new Head of Merchandising's priorities? - The new Head of Merchandising will focus on broadening the product assortment while ensuring clarity and distinctiveness in the brand's offerings [110][111]

Canada Goose (GOOS) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.05 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.12 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 180%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this high-end coat maker would post a loss of $0.60 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.58, delivering a surprise of 3.33%.Over the last four quarters, ...

Revenue and Income - Revenue for the second quarter ended September 29, 2024, was CAD 267.8 million, a decrease of 4% compared to CAD 281.1 million for the same period in 2023[4] - Gross profit for the second quarter was CAD 164.1 million, down from CAD 179.5 million year-over-year, reflecting a gross margin decline[4] - Net income for the second quarter was CAD 6.3 million, compared to CAD 4.1 million in the prior year, indicating a positive trend despite previous losses[3] - Operating income for the total segments was $75.6 million, down from $95.6 million in the same quarter last year, reflecting a decline of 21%[43] - The company reported a net loss before income taxes of $6.9 million for the second quarter, compared to a loss of $11.3 million in the same quarter of the previous year[43] - Basic earnings per share for the second quarter was $0.06, compared to $0.04 in the same quarter last year[48] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash reserves increased to CAD 68.8 million from CAD 37.5 million, providing a stronger liquidity position[9] - Net cash used in operating activities was CAD 50.4 million for the second quarter, a slight improvement from CAD 57.2 million in the previous year, with a total of CAD 193.3 million used in the two quarters compared to CAD 266.5 million last year[13] - Net cash used in investing activities decreased significantly to CAD 3.2 million in the second quarter from CAD 26.4 million last year, totaling CAD 5.5 million for the two quarters compared to CAD 32.1 million last year[13] - Net cash from financing activities was CAD 58.7 million in the second quarter, down from CAD 72.1 million year-over-year, with a total of CAD 118.4 million for the two quarters compared to CAD 51.1 million last year[13] - The company’s cash at the end of the period was CAD 68.8 million, an increase from CAD 37.5 million at the end of the previous year’s second quarter[13] Assets and Liabilities - Total current assets decreased to CAD 771.2 million from CAD 803.5 million year-over-year, primarily due to a reduction in inventories[9] - Total liabilities decreased to CAD 1,197.8 million from CAD 1,233.6 million, indicating improved financial management[9] - The company’s non-current, non-financial assets totaled $585.1 million as of September 29, 2024, down from $591.7 million a year earlier[46] - Lease liabilities rose to CAD 337.9 million as of September 29, 2024, compared to CAD 305.3 million on October 1, 2023, representing an increase of approximately 10.6%[57] - The total accounts payable and accrued liabilities decreased to CAD 155.4 million as of September 29, 2024, from CAD 177.7 million on March 31, 2024, reflecting a decline of approximately 12.5%[59] Inventory and Receivables - Total inventories decreased to $473.4 million from $519.7 million year-over-year, indicating a reduction of 9%[51] - Trade accounts receivable stood at $124.5 million as of September 29, 2024, slightly down from $126.3 million a year earlier[49] - The provision for inventory obsolescence increased to $66.8 million from $43.9 million in the previous year, reflecting a rise of 52%[52] Financial Management and Strategy - The company is focusing on market expansion and new product development to drive future growth, although specific details were not disclosed in the call[4] - The company continues to invest in technology and innovation to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience[4] - The company has implemented changes in accounting policies regarding the presentation of liabilities, resulting in CAD 23.0 million of liabilities being reclassified from non-current to current[31] Shareholder Activities - The Company initiated a normal course issuer bid to purchase up to 4,980,505 subordinate voting shares from November 22, 2023, to November 21, 2024[78] - Since the commencement of the Fiscal 2024 NCIB, the Company purchased 3,586,124 subordinate voting shares for a total cash consideration of $56.9 million[81] - The total share capital as of September 29, 2024, was valued at $108.6 million, reflecting an increase from $104.9 million on March 31, 2024[81] Debt and Financing - The Company has pledged substantially all of its assets as collateral for both the Revolving Facility and the Term Loan, ensuring compliance with financial covenants[64][71] - The Term Loan outstanding amount was CAD 390.2 million as of September 29, 2024, slightly down from CAD 393.1 million on March 31, 2024, a decrease of about 0.7%[72] - The Company recorded cash flows of CAD 74.4 million from Mainland China Facilities borrowings and CAD 31.4 million from Japan Facility borrowings as of September 29, 2024[148] Risk Management - The company is exposed to various risks including liquidity risk, credit risk, and market risk, with senior management overseeing these risks[113][114] - The Company executed an operating cash flow hedge program for fiscal 2025 to mitigate foreign exchange risk[129] - The Company has outstanding foreign currency forward exchange contracts totaling USD 67.9 million for purchasing Canadian dollars and USD 14.9 million for selling Canadian dollars as of September 29, 2024[134]

In the latest trading session, Canada Goose (GOOS) closed at $10.22, marking no change from the previous day. The stock's change was more than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.92%. Elsewhere, the Dow lost 0.96%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.6%.Heading into today, shares of the high-end coat maker had lost 7.09% over the past month, lagging the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 1.69% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.68% in that time.The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Canada ...