Canada Goose Holdings Inc. ( GOOS ) has reported a stagnant financial performance in recent quarters. While a weak luxury market weighs on the luxury winter outerwear company, Canada Goose’s brand also seems to be losing ground in theI am an avid investor with a major focus on small cap companies with experience in investing in US, Canadian, and European markets. My investment philosophy to generating great returns on the stock market revolves around identifying mispriced securities by understanding the dri ...

Investors interested in Retail - Apparel and Shoes stocks are likely familiar with Canada Goose (GOOS) and MINISO Group Holding Limited Unsponsored ADR (MNSO) . But which of these two stocks is more attractive to value investors? We'll need to take a closer look to find out.We have found that the best way to discover great value opportunities is to pair a strong Zacks Rank with a great grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system. The proven Zacks Rank emphasizes companies with positive estimate r ...

Company Performance - Canada Goose (GOOS) ended the latest trading session at $8.04, reflecting a +1.13% adjustment from the previous day's close, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.38% [1] - Over the past month, shares of Canada Goose have declined by 18.21%, which is significantly worse than the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 7.71% and the S&P 500's loss of 5.59% [1] Earnings Forecast - The upcoming earnings release for Canada Goose is anticipated to show an EPS of $0.16, indicating a growth of 14.29% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $255.62 million, which represents a decrease of 3.74% from the year-ago period [2] Analyst Projections - Recent shifts in analyst projections for Canada Goose should be monitored, as positive estimate revisions can indicate optimism about the company's business outlook [3] Valuation Metrics - Canada Goose is currently trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 11.28, which is a discount compared to the industry's average Forward P/E of 14.13 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.76, while the industry average PEG ratio is 1.34 [6] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, which includes Canada Goose, ranks 167 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 33% of all industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the performance of distinct industry groups, indicating that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Company Performance - Canada Goose (GOOS) closed at $8.51, reflecting a -1.28% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.16% [1] - Over the past month, Canada Goose shares have declined by 25.82%, significantly worse than the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 5.51% and the S&P 500's loss of 3.59% [1] Upcoming Financial Results - The company is expected to report an EPS of $0.16, indicating a 14.29% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Quarterly revenue is forecasted at $255.62 million, down 3.74% from the previous year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $0.71 per share, a decrease of 2.74% from the prior year, with revenue expected to be $926.76 million, down 6.03% [3] Analyst Forecast Revisions - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Canada Goose are important as they reflect changing business trends, with upward revisions indicating analyst confidence in the company's profitability [4] Zacks Rank and Performance - Canada Goose currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), with the Zacks Rank system showing a strong historical performance, particularly for 1 ranked stocks which have averaged a +25% annual return since 1988 [6] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained steady over the past month [6] Valuation Metrics - Canada Goose has a Forward P/E ratio of 12.23, which is lower than the industry average of 15.15, indicating a potential valuation discount [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.82, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.46, suggesting favorable growth expectations relative to its price [8] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, which includes Canada Goose, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 134, placing it in the bottom 47% of over 250 industries [9] - Historically, industries in the top 50% outperform those in the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [9]

Group 1 - The core investment strategy focuses on long-only investment, evaluating companies from an operational and buy-and-hold perspective, rather than market-driven dynamics [1] - The articles emphasize understanding the long-term earnings power of companies and the competitive dynamics within their industries [1] - The majority of recommendations will be holds, indicating a cautious approach to investment opportunities, with only a small fraction of companies deemed suitable for buying at any given time [1] Group 2 - The articles aim to provide important information for future investors and introduce a healthy skepticism towards a generally bullish market [1] - There is a clear distinction made between the author's opinions and professional investment advice, highlighting the need for readers to conduct their own due diligence [2][3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 was $608 million, slightly below last year's $610 million, reflecting growth from the DTC channel offset by a decline in the Wholesale channel [48] - DTC revenue increased to $518 million from $514 million last year, while comparable DTC sales declined 6% [49][50] - Gross margin expanded by 70 basis points to 74.4%, driven by favorable pricing and reduced inventory provisions [55] - Adjusted EBIT for Q3 was $205.2 million, representing a margin of 33.8%, compared to $207.2 million and a margin of 34% last year [56] - Adjusted net income attributable to shareholders was $148.3 million or $1.51 per diluted share, up from $138.6 million or $1.37 per diluted share in Q3 fiscal 2024 [59] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) business showed positive momentum, with North America comp sales growing 22% in December [7][8] - The Snow Goose capsule collection launch was a significant highlight, with 25% of purchasers also buying mainline products [11] - Apparel offerings saw robust growth, indicating the brand's relevance beyond extreme cold weather moments [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America revenue declined 2%, driven by a planned reduction in wholesale order volume, but DTC performance showed strength [53] - In APAC, revenue fell 2% primarily due to macroeconomic factors impacting DTC in Greater China, although wholesale revenue grew due to timing shifts [54] - EMEA revenue was down 4%, with the UK being weaker compared to the rest of EMEA [54] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on setting the foundation for brand and product evolution, with a significant emphasis on the Snow Goose launch [9][20] - There is a strategic intent to simplify operations while maintaining investments in key growth areas [15][46] - The company aims to enhance its digital capabilities and improve the customer experience through various initiatives [31][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the strong execution of their strategy and the increasing global resonance of the brand [16][66] - The company is maintaining its full-year revenue guidance, expecting a range between a low-single-digit increase to a low-single-digit decline compared to fiscal 2024 [61] - Management acknowledged the challenges in the macro environment but highlighted positive trends in consumer response and brand engagement [96][98] Other Important Information - Inventory decreased 15% year-over-year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of reduction [44] - The company is committed to enhancing efficiency and overhead costs, regardless of top-line performance [59][62] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the revenue guide and DTC comp sales forecast - Management indicated that conservatism was applied to the DTC comp sales forecast due to performance in January and the limited time left in the year [70][71] Question: About the 22% comp in North America in December - The strong performance was attributed to effective marketing initiatives and improved execution by the teams [73][74] Question: About the outlook for wholesale and conversations with partners - Positive conversations with wholesale partners were reported, with a focus on brand-aligned partnerships and improved sell-through rates [100][102] Question: On brand resonance with the Chinese consumer - The response to the Snow Goose collection was strong, with significant brand awareness and marketing investments amplifying consumer interest [94][96] Question: On traffic trends and pricing outlook - E-commerce traffic saw substantial growth, while store traffic was mixed across regions, with the UK facing more challenges [116][119]

Q3 FY2025 EARNINGS February 6, 2025 Q3 FY25 EARNINGS 2 NEIL BOWDEN DANI REISS CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER Disclaimer General All references in this presentation to "Canada Goose", the "Company", "we", "our", "us" or similar terms refer to Canada Goose Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries. This presentation has been prepared by Canada Goose solely for information purposes. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities in any jurisdiction. Unle ...

Core Viewpoint - Canada Goose reported quarterly earnings of $1.10 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.08 per share, and showing an increase from $1.01 per share a year ago, indicating a positive earnings surprise of 1.85% [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $443.69 million for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.71%, although this represents a slight decline from year-ago revenues of $448.03 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Canada Goose has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates [2] Stock Performance - Canada Goose shares have increased approximately 6.1% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 3.1% [3] Future Outlook - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for assessing future stock performance, with current consensus EPS estimates at $0.22 for the coming quarter and $0.75 for the current fiscal year, alongside projected revenues of $254.61 million and $939.28 million respectively [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Canada Goose is currently mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting the stock is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, to which Canada Goose belongs, is currently ranked in the top 27% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable industry outlook [8]

Core Insights - Canada Goose has transformed from a little-known manufacturer of utilitarian outerwear to a luxury brand synonymous with wealth and celebrity [1] - The brand's evolution involved decades of transformation and three generations of leadership, culminating in its current status as a coveted status symbol [1] - Since Dani Reiss became CEO in 2001, the company has leveraged its reputation for quality to build a dedicated following for its high-priced parkas [1] Company Evolution - Canada Goose initially focused on producing jackets for competitors before shifting to its own branded luxury outerwear [1] - The brand's parkas are now priced higher than some used cars, indicating a significant shift in market positioning and consumer perception [1] - The transformation into a luxury label reflects broader trends in consumer behavior and the growing demand for high-quality, status-driven products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Canada Goose (GOOS) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite a decline in revenues for the quarter ending December 2024, with the actual results being crucial for the stock's near-term price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on February 6, 2025, and could lead to a stock price increase if the results exceed expectations, while a miss could result in a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is $1.08 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +6.9%, while revenues are projected to be $427.8 million, down 4.5% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a stable outlook from covering analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Canada Goose is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -6.48%, suggesting a bearish sentiment among analysts [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with a positive Earnings ESP indicating a higher likelihood of an earnings beat [6][8]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 significantly increases the chances of a positive surprise, with a historical success rate of nearly 70% [8]. Historical Performance - Canada Goose has beaten consensus EPS estimates three out of the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +180% in the last reported quarter [12][13]. Conclusion - While Canada Goose does not currently appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance ahead of the earnings release [16].