Core Insights - Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported a decrease in net income for Q3 2025, with net income at $142 million ($0.48 per diluted share), down from $165 million ($0.55 per diluted share) in Q3 2024 [2][3] - The company experienced a 1% decline in net sales, totaling $2,190 million compared to $2,216 million in the same quarter last year, attributed to lower volumes and prices in the Americas [5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $383 million, a 13% decrease from $433 million in Q3 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.5% compared to 19.5% in the previous year [6][20] Financial Performance - Net income for Q3 2025 was impacted by special items and amortization charges totaling $30 million, compared to $29 million in Q3 2024 [2] - Adjusted net income for Q3 2025 was $172 million ($0.58 per diluted share), down from $194 million ($0.64 per diluted share) in Q3 2024 [20] - Total debt increased to $5,941 million in Q3 2025 from $5,209 million in Q4 2024, resulting in a net leverage ratio of 3.9x compared to 3.0x in the previous quarter [7] Operational Highlights - The company successfully launched its Waco, Texas recycled paperboard manufacturing facility ahead of schedule, with expectations to reach full production in 12 to 18 months [4] - Capital expenditures in Q3 2025 were $267 million, down from $313 million in the same quarter last year [8] - The company returned approximately $248 million to shareholders in the first nine months of 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, including a $39 million repurchase in Q3 [9] Market Outlook - For the full year 2025, the company expects net sales between $8.4 billion and $8.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA between $1.40 billion and $1.45 billion, and adjusted EPS between $1.80 and $2.00 [10] - The company noted high volume and market uncertainty due to stretched consumer conditions and weakened consumer confidence [10]

Group 1 - Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) is recognized as an oversold mid-cap stock with potential for investment according to hedge funds [1] - The company announced the resignation of Chief Financial Officer Stephen Scherger, effective November 7, 2025, who will join rival Amcor [1][2] - Charles D. Lischer, the Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, has been appointed as Interim CFO starting November 7, 2025 [2] Group 2 - Graphic Packaging is a leading provider of paper-based packaging solutions, serving clients in the food, beverage, and consumer product sectors [3] - The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, and operates globally with a focus on sustainability, innovation, and vertically integrated manufacturing [3]

Upgrades - Baird upgraded Zions Bancorp (ZION) to Outperform from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $65, advising investors to take advantage of the selloff in shares [2] - Stifel upgraded International Paper (IP) to Buy from Hold with an unchanged price target of $57.80, noting that initial exuberance following the CEO's appointment has been replaced by more realistic expectations [2] - HSBC upgraded Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $50, up from $43, citing record-high precious metal prices and copper's outperformance due to supply disruptions [2] - KeyBanc upgraded AppFolio (APPF) to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $285 price target, indicating renewed confidence in the company's momentum following customer conversations at its annual conference [3] - UBS upgraded Deere (DE) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $535, down from $545, expecting 2026 to be the last year of earnings downturn before recovery in 2027 [4] Downgrades - TD Cowen downgraded Booz Allen (BAH) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $105, down from $125, anticipating a reduction in fiscal 2026 guidance [5] - Barclays double downgraded AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) to Underweight from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $60, citing excessive stock valuation despite attractive opportunities [5] - Raymond James downgraded Bank OZK (OZK) to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target, reducing next year's EPS forecast by roughly 12% due to softer loan growth expectations and higher expenses [5] - Raymond James downgraded Graphic Packaging (GPK) to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target, indicating that recent share weakness limits differentiation [5] - Raymond James downgraded Silgan Holdings (SLGN) to Outperform from Strong Buy with a price target of $53, down from $60, while still constructive on the company, taking a more conservative approach due to caution from Q2 items [5]

Core Insights - Amcor has announced the hiring of Stephen Scherger as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective November 10, succeeding Michael Casamento who has served in the role for 10 years [1][4]. Company Developments - Stephen Scherger previously served as CFO of Graphic Packaging International (GPI) for a decade, during which GPI's net sales more than doubled, highlighting his significant impact on the company's growth [2]. - Under Scherger's leadership, GPI completed major acquisitions, including the 2018 merger with International Paper's North America consumer packaging business and the 2021 acquisition of AR Packaging for $1.45 billion [3]. - Amcor's recent leadership change marks its second major C-suite transition in two years, following the promotion of Peter Konieczny to CEO in 2024 [5]. Transition Details - Scherger will conclude his tenure at GPI after the third-quarter earnings report on November 4, with Charles Lischer appointed as interim CFO [6].

Upgrades - RBC Capital upgraded Sealed Air (SEE) to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $48, up from $35, citing stabilization in Protective and continued strength in Food segments, along with over $100 million of cost reductions and G&A optimization [2] - Citi upgraded Tractor Supply (TSCO) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $62, up from $60, noting same-store sales momentum and earnings growth heading into 2026 [2] - Piper Sandler upgraded PNC Financial (PNC) to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $220, up from $211, expressing confidence in PNC's near-term prospects due to its conservative guidance and attractive valuation [3] - HSBC upgraded Iqvia (IQV) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $235, up from $195, expecting easing regulatory clouds in pharma to support a re-rating of the shares [3] - MoffettNathanson upgraded Roblox (RBLX) to Neutral from Sell, acknowledging that user metrics have significantly improved driven by new viral experiences [4] Downgrades - Jefferies downgraded Freshpet (FRPT) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $53, down from $97, citing an abrupt and persistent growth slowdown and lack of near-term catalysts [5] - HSBC downgraded Bloom Energy (BE) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $100, up from $44, while expecting consensus estimates to revise higher but awaiting a better entry point [5] - RBC Capital downgraded Graphic Packaging (GPK) to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $21, down from $25, due to oversupply in bleached paperboard limiting price increases [5] - JPMorgan downgraded RenaissanceRe (RNR) to Neutral from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $303, adopting an incrementally cautious view on reinsurance pricing [5] - Northland downgraded Nutanix (NTNX) to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $76, highlighting risks related to VMware customer migrations and competition from Red Hat [5]

Core Insights - The materials sector has several oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key indicator for identifying oversold conditions, with a value below 30 indicating potential buying opportunities [1] Company Summaries - **FMC Corp (NYSE:FMC)**: - Current RSI Value: 22.7 - Recent Price Action: Shares fell 2.5% to close at $30.34 - Stock Performance: Fell around 18% over the past month, with a 52-week low of $30.15 - Analyst Ratings: UBS and Citigroup maintained a Neutral rating, lowering price targets from $44 to $36 and $42 to $34 respectively [8] - **Corteva Inc (NYSE:CTVA)**: - Current RSI Value: 29.8 - Recent Price Action: Shares fell 3.8% to close at $63.11 - Stock Performance: Fell around 13% over the past month, with a 52-week low of $53.40 - Analyst Ratings: Mizuho maintained an Outperform rating, lowering the price target from $85 to $78 [8] - **Graphic Packaging Holding Co (NYSE:GPK)**: - Current RSI Value: 25.9 - Recent Price Action: Shares fell 1% to close at $18.79 - Stock Performance: Fell around 9% over the past month, with a 52-week low of $18.76 - Analyst Ratings: UBS and Citigroup maintained a Neutral rating, lowering price targets from $24 to $20 and $23 to $21 respectively [8]

Core Insights - The materials sector has several oversold stocks that present potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1][2] Group 1: Oversold Stocks - FMC Corp (NYSE:FMC) has an RSI of 22.7, with a recent stock price of $30.34, down 18% over the past month, and a 52-week low of $30.15 [8] - Corteva Inc (NYSE:CTVA) has an RSI of 29.8, with a recent stock price of $63.11, down 13% over the past month, and a 52-week low of $53.40 [8] - Graphic Packaging Holding Co (NYSE:GPK) has an RSI of 25.9, with a recent stock price of $18.79, down 9% over the past month, and a 52-week low of $18.76 [8]

Core Insights - Graphic Packaging Holding Company, a leader in sustainable consumer packaging, will announce its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 4, 2025, before market opens [1] - The company has scheduled a conference call to discuss these results at 10:00 a.m. ET on the same day [2] - A tentative date for the release of fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results has been set for February 3, 2026 [3] Company Overview - Graphic Packaging designs and produces consumer packaging primarily from renewable or recycled materials, emphasizing innovation and commitment to reducing the environmental footprint of packaging [3] - The company operates a global network of design and manufacturing facilities, serving well-known brands across various sectors including food, beverage, foodservice, and household products [3]

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Matheo Langlais as a new contributing analyst. You can become one too! Share your best investment idea by submitting your article for review to our editors. Get published, earn money, and unlock exclusive SA Premium access.I am a dual Master’s graduate in Finance from Fordham University and ESSCA School of Management, with experience in equity research at Kepler Cheuvreux and TP ICAP Midcap, and audit at PwC. I specialize in ESG integration, valuation, and sm ...

Group 1 - The company has undergone significant transformation over the past seven years, focusing on efficiency and cash flow generation [2] - The final major expenditure related to the Waco investment in recycled paperboard manufacturing is nearing completion, which is expected to enhance cash flow [2] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) are projected to decrease to approximately 5% of sales, contributing to improved EBITDA and working capital reductions [2]