Core Viewpoint - Graphic Packaging Holding Company, a leader in sustainable consumer packaging, will present at the Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference on March 2, 2026, at 11:35 am ET [1] Company Overview - Graphic Packaging is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, and specializes in designing and producing consumer packaging primarily from renewable or recycled materials [1] - The company is recognized for its innovation and commitment to reducing the environmental footprint of consumer packaging [1] - Graphic Packaging operates a global network of design and manufacturing facilities, serving well-known brands in various sectors including food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer products [1]

Core Insights - Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK) is recognized as one of the top eight paper and plastic packaging stocks favored by hedge funds [1] - Analysts have recently adjusted their price targets for GPK, reflecting concerns about near-term challenges and performance [2][3] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Ghansham Panjabi from Baird reduced the target price from $18 to $15, indicating a revised upside potential of over 13% while maintaining a Neutral rating due to near-term business challenges [1] - Michael Roxland from Truist Financial reaffirmed a Hold rating and lowered the price target from $18 to $14, citing weak volumes and pricing in the recently announced fourth-quarter results, which reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29 [2][3] Future Guidance - Management's guidance for 2026 includes an expected EBITDA range of $1.05 to $1.25 billion and an EPS range of $0.75 to $1.15 [4] Company Overview - Graphic Packaging is a vertically integrated manufacturer of fiber-based consumer packaging materials, serving various segments such as food & beverage, foodservice, and household products [5] - The company operates in three segments: Americas Paperboard Packaging, Europe Paperboard Packaging, and Paperboard Manufacturing, offering products like unbleached, bleached & recycled paperboard, cups, lids, food containers, and specialized packaging machines [5]

We recently published 10 Stocks With Monster Gains. Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK) was one of the top performers on Wednesday. Graphic Packaging bounced back by 10.31 percent on Wednesday to close at $13.70 apiece as investors appeared to have hunted for bargains after falling to a level that left the stock just 6 percent shy of its 52-week low a day earlier. This followed the company’s disappointing earnings performance on Tuesday, with both profits and sales declining after navigating a challenging mark ...

Core Insights - The company aims to enhance brand perception, enable sustainability goals, and deliver exceptional quality and reliability, which are seen as substantial opportunities for improving performance and creating shareholder value [1][5] - The company recognizes the critical role of packaging in consumer purchasing decisions and is aware of the challenges and opportunities faced by customers in the evolving market [2][10] - The CEO has initiated a comprehensive operational and business review to unlock the company's full potential and drive stronger performance for stakeholders [6][9] Company Overview - Graphic Packaging is positioned as a world-class company with strong relationships with respected consumer brands and retailers, supported by an industry-leading asset base [5][12] - The company operates approximately 100 packaging facilities, including the highest quality recycled paperboard manufacturing facilities in North America [5][18] - The company has a strong focus on innovation and technical capabilities to build deeper customer relationships [5][23] Operational Challenges and Strategies - The company acknowledges the need to address overcapacity in the commodity bleached paperboard markets and the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on consumer purchasing patterns [10][11] - Immediate steps are being taken to right-size the cost structure and reduce inventory levels to enhance profitability and drive free cash generation [11][12] - A transformation office has been established to drive operational improvements and enhance productivity without disrupting customer service [8][16] Financial Performance and Projections - In Q4, net sales were $2.1 billion, essentially flat year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $311 million, reflecting competitive pricing pressures and softer packaging volumes [28][29] - For the full year, net sales were $8.6 billion, down approximately 2%, with adjusted EBITDA around $1.4 billion [29][30] - The company expects adjusted free cash flow to be between $700 million and $800 million in 2026, driven by reduced capital spending and inventory optimization [21][33] Growth Strategy - The company is focused on disciplined organic growth, prioritizing markets with the best long-term opportunities while reducing exposure to less favorable markets [21][22] - Partnerships with key consumer packaged goods companies and quick service restaurants are being emphasized to drive volume growth and innovation [22][63] - The company aims to accelerate the speed of commercialization for innovative packaging solutions to meet evolving customer needs [24][23] Capital Allocation and Debt Management - The company’s capital allocation strategy prioritizes reducing leverage, returning capital to shareholders, and optimizing the portfolio over time [25][44] - The current net leverage stands at 3.8 times, with plans to pay down approximately $500 million of debt in 2026 [25][42] - The company remains committed to returning capital through dividends and opportunistic share repurchases as leverage declines [26][44]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, net sales were $2.1 billion, essentially flat year-over-year, with volumes and pricing both down slightly less than 1%, offset by a $40 million foreign exchange benefit [27] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $8.6 billion, down approximately 2%, with the Augusta divestiture accounting for $150 million of the decrease [28] - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was approximately $1.4 billion, impacted by competitive pricing and softer packaging volumes [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a combined $174 million headwind from price and volume for the full year, with commodity input and operating cost inflation of approximately $150 million [29] - Adjusted EPS for the full year was $1.80, with a net leverage of 3.8x reflecting headwinds to EBITDA and share repurchases [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The external environment remains challenged, with overcapacity in commodity bleached paperboard markets putting pressure on finished packaging [11] - Demand trends for consumer staples remain uneven due to affordability and macroeconomic uncertainty, with expectations for improvement acknowledged [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance profitability through cost actions and operational efficiencies, reduce inventory, and prioritize free cash flow generation [15][41] - A comprehensive operational and business review is underway to optimize the company's footprint and resources [10][11] - The growth strategy is customer-centric, focusing on disciplined organic growth and partnerships with key consumer packaged goods companies [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the need to right-size the cost structure for current macroeconomic realities and is taking immediate steps to enhance profitability [12] - The company expects to generate Adjusted Free Cash Flow between $700 million and $800 million in 2026, with a focus on reducing capital spending and inventory [15][20] Other Important Information - Total capital spend for 2025 was $935 million, higher than targets, with expectations to drop to approximately $450 million in 2026 [19][20] - The company is committed to reducing debt and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [25][41] Q&A Session Summary Question: What makes your approach different than what has come before at Graphic Packaging? - The new CEO emphasizes a focus on cost reduction, productivity, and operational excellence while maintaining strong customer relationships [45][46] Question: How are you able to balance inventory reduction while Waco continues to ramp? - The inventory reduction will focus on recycled, bleached, and cup stock, ensuring customer service is not disrupted [49][51] Question: How do you think the pricing dynamic situation in paperboard in the U.S. will play out? - The CEO notes that the bleached paperboard market is oversupplied, impacting margins, but believes the company can manage costs effectively [58][60] Question: What factors will determine core or non-core assets in your business? - The CEO highlights the importance of focusing on core operations with durable competitive advantages and synergies [80][81] Question: Will there be any changes to the dividend policy for 2026? - The immediate priority is debt paydown, with no commitment to a dividend change yet, but expectations for growing dividends over time [85]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, net sales were $2.1 billion, flat year-over-year, with volumes and pricing down slightly less than 1%, offset by a $40 million foreign exchange benefit [26] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $8.6 billion, down approximately 2%, with adjusted EBITDA around $1.4 billion, reflecting pressures from competitive pricing and softer packaging volumes [27][28] - Adjusted EPS for the full year was $1.80, with a net leverage of 3.8x due to EBITDA headwinds and share repurchases [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing pressure on adjusted EBITDA due to competitive pricing and reduced packaging volumes, which together reduced adjusted EBITDA by approximately $40 million compared to the previous year [26] - The adjusted divestiture accounted for $150 million of the $190 million decrease in net sales for the full year [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The external environment remains challenged, with overcapacity in commodity bleached paperboard markets impacting finished packaging prices [10] - Demand trends for consumer staples are uneven due to affordability and macroeconomic uncertainty, with expectations of improvement in the future [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing profitability through cost actions and operational efficiencies, reducing inventory, and prioritizing free cash flow generation [13][19] - A comprehensive operational and business review is underway to optimize the company's footprint and resources [10][12] - The growth strategy emphasizes disciplined organic growth, customer-centric approaches, and innovation to drive market share [20][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the challenges in the current macroeconomic environment but emphasizes a focus on controllable factors to create lasting value [11] - The company expects to generate adjusted free cash flow between $700 million and $800 million in 2026, driven by reduced capital spending and inventory optimization [14][19] - Management is optimistic about restoring top-line growth and improving margins as market conditions normalize [15][50] Other Important Information - Total capital spend for 2025 was $935 million, higher than targeted, with expectations to drop to approximately $450 million in 2026 [18][19] - The company aims to achieve an investment-grade credit rating by 2030 as part of its Vision 2030 commitments [15][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: How will the new CEO's approach differ from previous strategies? - The new CEO emphasizes a focus on cost reduction, productivity, and operational excellence while maintaining strong customer relationships [41][42] Question: What are the plans for inventory reduction? - The company plans to reduce inventory from 20% to 15% of sales, focusing on recycled, bleached, and cup stock, while ensuring customer service remains unaffected [45][46] Question: How does the pricing dynamic in paperboard affect the industry? - The CEO notes that the bleached paperboard market is oversupplied, impacting pricing and returns, while recycled and unbleached markets are in better balance [48][49] Question: What factors will determine core versus non-core assets? - The company will focus on durable competitive advantages and synergies, particularly in its North America and Europe food and beverage business, while reviewing smaller businesses for potential divestiture [57][59] Question: What is the company's stance on dividends? - The immediate priority is debt paydown, with no commitment to change the dividend policy for 2026, but future growth in dividends is expected as leverage decreases [60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, net sales were $2.1 billion, flat year-over-year, with volumes and pricing down slightly less than 1%, offset by a $40 million foreign exchange benefit [23] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $8.6 billion, down approximately 2%, with adjusted EBITDA around $1.4 billion, reflecting pressures from competitive pricing and softer packaging volumes [24][25] - Adjusted EPS for the full year was $1.80, with a net leverage of 3.8x [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a combined $174 million headwind from price and volume for the full year, with commodity input and operating cost inflation around $150 million [24] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $311 million, impacted by competitive pricing and production curtailments [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The external environment remains challenged, with overcapacity in commodity bleached paperboard markets affecting finished packaging [9] - Demand trends for consumer staples are uneven due to affordability and macroeconomic uncertainty, with expectations for improvement acknowledged [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance profitability through cost actions and operational efficiencies, reduce inventory, and prioritize free cash flow generation [12] - A comprehensive operational and business review is underway to optimize the company's footprint and financial performance [9] - The growth strategy is customer-centric, focusing on disciplined organic growth and innovation to drive volume [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the need to right-size the cost structure and reduce inventory levels to enhance profitability [10] - The company expects to generate adjusted free cash flow between $700 million and $800 million in 2026, driven by reduced capital spending and inventory optimization [12][28] - There is confidence in restoring top-line growth and stronger margins as part of the value creation plan [13] Other Important Information - The Waco project is substantially complete, with total project spend estimated at $1.67 billion, and capital spending is expected to drop significantly in 2026 [15][16] - The company is focused on reducing leverage and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: What makes your approach different than what has come before at Graphic Packaging? - The new CEO emphasizes a focus on cost reduction, productivity, and operational excellence while maintaining strong customer relationships [37][38] Question: How are you able to balance inventory reduction while Waco continues to ramp? - The inventory reduction will focus on recycled, bleached, and cup stock, ensuring customer service is not disrupted [41][42] Question: How do you see the pricing dynamics in paperboard in the U.S. over the next couple of years? - The CEO notes that recycled and unbleached markets are balanced, while bleached paperboard faces oversupply and pricing pressure [44][45] Question: What are the factors determining core or non-core assets in the business? - The company will focus on durable competitive advantages and synergies, particularly in North America and Europe food and beverage businesses [54][56]

Forward-Looking Statements CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Any statements of the Company's expectations in these slides, including, but not limited to, statements regarding full-year 2026 capital expenditures, free cash flow ("FCF") and Adj. Cash Flow, 2026 Net Sales, volumes, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EPS, capital spending, interest expense, cash taxes, working capital and pension expense, effective tax rate, and depreciation and amortization, year-end 2026 Net Leverage, and post ...

Graphic Packaging (GPK) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.29 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.34 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.59 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -15.33%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this packaging company would post earnings of $0.54 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.58, delivering a surprise of +7.41%.Over the last four quarters, ...

Financial Performance - 2025 net sales were $8.6 billion, a decrease of 2% from $8.8 billion in 2024[1] - 2025 net income was $444 million, down from $658 million in 2024, representing a decline of 32.5%[3] - Fourth quarter 2025 net sales were $2.1 billion, essentially flat compared to $2.1 billion in the same quarter last year[5] - Fourth quarter 2025 adjusted net income was $85 million, or $0.29 per diluted share, compared to $179 million, or $0.59 per diluted share in the same quarter of 2024[2] - Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $1.395 billion, down 17% from $1.682 billion in 2024[8] - Adjusted EBITDA for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025, was $1,395 million, down 17.1% from $1,682 million in 2024[28] - The company reported a decrease in EBITDA to $1,342 million in 2025 from $1,677 million in 2024, reflecting a decline of 19.9%[28] - The adjusted earnings per share (diluted) for 2025 was $1.80, down from $2.49 in 2024[28] Future Guidance - The company expects 2026 net sales to be between $8.4 billion and $8.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion[13] Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures for full-year 2025 were $935 million, a decrease from $1.203 billion in the prior year[11] - Capital spending for 2025 was $935 million, a reduction of 22.2% from $1,203 million in 2024[30] Shareholder Returns - The company returned approximately $281 million to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases[12] Debt and Leverage - Total debt for full-year 2025 was $5.592 billion, an increase from $5.209 billion in 2024[9] - The net leverage ratio increased to 3.8 in 2025 from 3.0 in 2024, indicating a higher level of debt relative to adjusted EBITDA[30] - The company reported a net debt of $5,331 million in 2025, an increase from $5,052 million in 2024[30] Cash Flow - Net cash provided by operating activities increased to $854 million in 2025, compared to $840 million in 2024[30] - Adjusted net cash provided by operating activities was $1,104 million in 2025, compared to $1,176 million in 2024[30] - The company had a net cash increase of $104 million in 2025, compared to a decrease of $5 million in 2024[24] Project Updates - The Waco, Texas greenfield recycled paperboard manufacturing facility project is substantially complete, with total projected costs of approximately $1.67 billion[11]