Core Viewpoint - Graphic Packaging (GPK) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on July 29, and if the key numbers exceed expectations, the stock may rise; conversely, a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is $0.41 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 31.7%, while revenues are projected at $2.18 billion, down 2.6% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.56%, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Graphic Packaging aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, suggesting no recent differing analyst views [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with positive readings being more reliable [9][10]. - Graphic Packaging currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Graphic Packaging was expected to earn $0.56 per share but only achieved $0.51, resulting in a surprise of -8.93% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has only surpassed consensus EPS estimates once [14]. Conclusion - While the potential for an earnings beat exists, Graphic Packaging does not appear to be a strong candidate for such an outcome, and investors should consider additional factors before making investment decisions [17].

Core Insights - Graphic Packaging Holding Company has released its 2024 Impact Report, showcasing progress towards its Better by 2030 sustainability commitments [1][3] - The company's Vision 2030 strategy emphasizes innovation and sustainability to meet the growing demand for packaging solutions [3] Sustainability Goals - The Better by 2030 initiative includes climate action goals aimed at achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, in line with the Paris Agreement [3][4] - Specific targets include reducing GHG emissions across operations and increasing the use of renewable fuel and electricity [3][4] Achievements and Metrics - Approximately 1 billion plastic packages have been replaced with paperboard packaging [6] - 97% of packaging products sold are characterized as recyclable [6] - Over 130 new patent applications have been filed [6] - Employee engagement survey participation reached over 20,000, with an 87% response rate [6] - 98% of global sites have implemented the Health Safety and Environment Excellence System [6] - 89% of purchased forest products are sustainably sourced [6] - Approximately 1 million metric tons of generated waste materials have been recycled [6] Renewable Energy Initiatives - The company plans to switch to 50% or more renewable electricity across all operations [4] - A virtual power purchase agreement (VPPA) is expected to cover 70% of electricity use in the EMEA region [6]

Company Overview - Graphic Packaging's 2024 net sales were $8.8 billion[5] - The company's 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $1.7 billion[5] - International sales accounted for 30% of the company's total sales in 2024, while U S sales made up the remaining 70%[5] Strategic Initiatives and Investments - The company expects $160 million in incremental EBITDA from the Waco recycled paperboard manufacturing facility in 2025[23] - The company's Kalamazoo K2 recycled paperboard machine is expected to generate $130 million in incremental EBITDA[23] - The company's innovation platforms target an addressable market opportunity of $15 billion[26] Sustainability Goals - The company aims for a 504% reduction in Scope 1 & 2 GHG emissions by 2032[38] - The company targets 90% renewable fuel use in wood fiber paperboard facilities[38] - The company is aiming for 2% annual sales growth from innovation[50] Financial Outlook - The company's 2025 net sales are guided to be between $82 billion and $85 billion[55] - The company's 2025 adjusted EBITDA is guided to be between $14 billion and $16 billion[55] - The company's capital spending for 2025 is expected to be approximately $700 million[57]

Financial Results Announcement - Graphic Packaging Holding Company will announce its second quarter 2025 financial results before the market opens on July 29, 2025 [1] - The conference call to discuss the results is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET on the same day [1] Conference Call Details - The conference call will be available via webcast on the Graphic Packaging investor website [2] - Participants can also join by telephone using the toll-free number 888-506-0062 or the international number 973-528-0011, with a participant access code of 582640 [2] - Telephone participants are advised to call in at least 10 minutes prior to the start of the call [2] - The webcast will be archived for replay starting at approximately 1:00 p.m. ET on July 29 [2] Future Financial Results - Graphic Packaging has tentatively scheduled the release of its third quarter 2025 financial results for November 4, 2025 [3] Company Overview - Graphic Packaging is a leader in sustainable consumer packaging, focusing on designs made primarily from renewable or recycled materials [4] - The company operates a global network of design and manufacturing facilities, serving well-known brands across various sectors including food, beverage, and household products [4]

Graphic Packaging Company (GPK) 2025 Conference June 11, 2025 03:15 PM ET Speaker0 All right. I guess we're top of the two fifteen here. Good afternoon. I'm Gabe Haiti, the Senior Packaging and Containers Analyst here at Wells Fargo. The meeting right now is Graphic Packaging. We're joined by Steve Serter, EVP and CFO, as well as Mark Conley, who's joined us in the audience, I think SVP of Investor Strategy and Development. GPK is one of the world's largest folding carton and boxboard manufacturers serving ...

Core Viewpoint - Graphic Packaging Holding Company, a leader in sustainable consumer packaging, will present at the Wells Fargo Industrials and Materials Conference on June 11, 2025 [1]. Company Overview - Graphic Packaging Holding Company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, and specializes in designing and producing consumer packaging primarily from renewable or recycled materials [2]. - The company is recognized for its innovation and commitment to reducing the environmental footprint of consumer packaging [2]. - Graphic Packaging operates a global network of design and manufacturing facilities, serving well-known brands in various sectors including food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer products [2].

Company Leadership - Alessandro Maselli has been appointed as the new president and CEO of Graphic Packaging, bringing extensive leadership experience from his previous roles at Catalent and other companies [1][2] - His career at Catalent spanned fourteen years, where he held various positions including director of operations and senior vice president of global operations before becoming CEO in 2022 [1] Strategic Vision - Graphic Packaging's Chairman Philip Martens emphasized that Maselli's commercial and operational expertise aligns with the company's Vision 2030 innovation and execution priorities [2] - Michael Doss, the current president and CEO, highlighted that Maselli's experience in global pharmaceutical and healthcare markets will be crucial for expanding Graphic Packaging's position in these sectors [2] Company Overview - Graphic Packaging specializes in designing and producing consumer packaging primarily from renewable or recycled materials, aiming to reduce the environmental footprint of consumer packaging [2] - The company operates a global network of design and manufacturing facilities, serving well-known brands across various sectors including food, beverage, and household products [2]

Financial Performance - Net Sales for Q1 2025 decreased by $139 million or 6% to $2,120 million from $2,259 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to the Augusta divestiture and reduced paperboard volumes and pricing [122]. - Income from Operations for Q1 2025 decreased by $57 million or 21% to $221 million from $278 million in Q1 2024, attributed to the Augusta divestiture, pricing declines, and commodity inflation [123]. - The Americas Paperboard Packaging segment reported net sales of $1,476 million in Q1 2025, down from $1,531 million in Q1 2024 [132]. - The International Paperboard Packaging segment's net sales decreased slightly to $523 million in Q1 2025 from $525 million in Q1 2024 [132]. - Net sales for the three months ended March 31, 2025, were $1,636 million, with a net income of $106 million [144]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Net Cash used in Operating Activities for Q1 2025 totaled $174 million compared to $3 million provided in Q1 2024, mainly due to lower income from operations and higher working capital needs [139]. - Net cash provided by financing activities for Q1 2025 was $439 million, up from $287 million in Q1 2024 [141]. - The Company expects its primary sources of liquidity to be cash flows from sales and operating activities, along with availability from revolving credit facilities [145]. - The Company expects ongoing cash requirements to be funded for at least the next twelve months through its current liquidity sources [145]. - The Company sold receivables of $262 million and $250 million under supply chain financing arrangements for Q1 2025 and Q1 2024, respectively [149]. Capital Expenditures and Investments - Capital spending for Q1 2025 was $313 million, driven by the construction of a new recycled paperboard manufacturing facility in Waco, Texas [140]. - The Company completed the sale of its Augusta, Georgia bleached paperboard manufacturing facility for a total consideration of $711 million on May 1, 2024 [120]. - The Company plans to close the Middletown, Ohio, recycled paperboard manufacturing facility by June 1, 2025 [120]. Debt and Financial Ratios - Interest Expense, Net decreased to $51 million in Q1 2025 from $59 million in Q1 2024, due to an increase in capitalized interest [124]. - The Company maintained a maximum Consolidated Total Leverage Ratio of 3.30 to 1.00 as of March 31, 2025, below the required limit of 4.25 to 1.00 [152]. - The Company was in compliance with a minimum Consolidated Interest Expense Ratio of 7.20 to 1.00, exceeding the required minimum of 3.00 to 1.00 [153]. Goodwill and Asset Valuation - Goodwill for the Europe reporting unit was $492 million as of March 31, 2025, with a fair value exceeding its carrying value by 24% [158]. Innovation and Growth - Innovation sales growth was $44 million in Q1 2025, driven by sustainable consumer packaging solutions [122]. Interest Rate Management - The Company has no active interest rate swap agreements as of March 31, 2025, despite previous use to manage interest rate exposure [162].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, Graphic Packaging reported sales of $2.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $365 million, and margins of 17.2%, which were significantly below expectations due to weaker volumes and input cost inflation [7][30][31] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.51, reflecting the challenging operating environment [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas business experienced a volume decline of approximately 1%, while the international business saw a growth of about 3% [10][30] - Innovation sales growth was reported at $44 million for the quarter, indicating a positive contribution from new product categories [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall sales were flat year-over-year, with food representing approximately 38% of packaging sales, showing uneven results across product categories [17] - Beverage packaging sales, which account for about 25% of overall sales, saw a decline after two years of strong performance, attributed to slowing beer consumption trends [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transitioning from Vision 2025 to Vision 2030, focusing on reinvestment and returning capital to shareholders, with a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization approved by the Board [9][36] - The Waco recycled paperboard investment is on track for a fourth-quarter startup, expected to generate substantial cash flow in the coming years [8][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer confidence has significantly declined in the U.S. and other markets, leading to a stretched consumer base and reduced spending [10][24] - The company has adjusted its guidance for 2025, now expecting a volume decline of 2% as a base case, reflecting the challenging backdrop for CPG and QSR customers [34][35] Other Important Information - Input cost inflation was significant in Q1 2025, with expectations for continued inflation in the coming quarters [31][34] - The company plans to implement a $40 price increase on recycled and unbleached paperboard grades effective May 15, 2025, to help recover margins [11][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in volume and affordability issues - Management acknowledged that affordability is a key issue affecting volumes, with consumers buying fewer items due to economic pressures [46][48] Question: Guidance assumptions for price-cost dynamics - The company expects to see a positive price contribution late in 2025, with efforts to recover inflation costs rolling into 2026 [52][95] Question: Supply-demand balance and potential industry actions - Management indicated that they will take rolling market-related downtime to align supply with demand, and noted recent closures by competitors that could help balance the market [58][60] Question: Revised guidance implications - The lower guidance reflects a combination of inflation impacts and volume declines, with a focus on matching supply and demand [84][92] Question: Long-term cash flow trajectory - Management remains confident in the long-term cash flow trajectory, expecting a significant reduction in CapEx in the coming years [100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, Graphic Packaging reported sales of $2.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $365 million, and margins of 17.2%, with adjusted EPS at $0.51, all significantly below expectations due to weaker volumes and input cost inflation [5][27][28] - Adjusted EBITDA was impacted by a $34 million headwind from price, volume, and mix, while input cost inflation amounted to $21 million [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas business experienced a volume decline of approximately 1%, while the non-integrated international business saw a volume increase of about 3% [27] - Innovation sales growth was reported at $44 million for the quarter, driven by new contributions in various product categories [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Volumes in the Americas were disappointing, down about 1%, while international markets showed slight growth but began to pull back due to economic uncertainty [8][9] - The food market represented approximately 38% of packaging sales, with mixed results across product categories, while beverage sales, accounting for about 25% of overall packaging sales, saw its first decline after two years of strong performance [14][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transitioning from Vision 2025 to Vision 2030, focusing on reinvestment and returning capital to stockholders, with a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization approved by the Board [7][34] - The Waco recycled paperboard investment is on track for a fourth-quarter startup, with expectations of generating substantial excess cash over the next several years [5][8] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer confidence has significantly declined, impacting volumes across markets, and a 2% volume decline is now the base case for 2025 [22][32] - Input cost inflation is expected to continue, with price increases announced to help recover margins [29][30] Other Important Information - The company plans to maintain capital spending in the $700 million range for 2025, with expectations of generating innovation sales growth of at least 2% [33][34] - The company is committed to improving its environmental footprint and enhancing its competitive advantage through innovation [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in volume decline and affordability issues - Management acknowledged that affordability is a key factor affecting volumes, with customers experiencing volume declines of approximately 3% to 4% [45][46] Question: Guidance assumptions for price-cost dynamics - Management expects to see a positive price contribution late in 2025, with efforts to recover inflation through pricing actions [52][53] Question: Supply-demand balance and potential industry actions - Management indicated that they will take rolling market-related downtime to match supply with demand, and noted recent closures by competitors that could help balance the market [61][62] Question: Revised guidance and EBITDA margin expectations - Management clarified that the revised guidance reflects a temporary impact from inflation, with a path back to previous margin levels expected through pricing recovery and the Waco project [94][95]