Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Graphic Packaging's sales for Q3 2025 were $2.2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $383 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.5%. Adjusted EPS was $0.58 [5][22][24] - Year-on-year volumes were down 2%, but the company outperformed most markets served [10][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The innovation platform contributed approximately $52 million in sales, representing about 2% of total sales [35] - The company reported a modest deceleration in packaging sales, down approximately 2% year-over-year, excluding the effect of foreign exchange [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The grocery volumes showed pressure, with upper-income consumers spending differently while lower-income consumers cut back due to rising food prices [9][10] - Food and household products remained steady, while beverage and food service markets were weaker [13][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The Waco facility is a critical investment aimed at enhancing the company's competitive advantage in recycled paperboard, expected to ramp up production over 12-18 months [8][9] - The company is transitioning from Vision 2025 to Vision 2030, focusing on free cash flow generation [5][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges in the consumer packaging environment but expressed confidence in the company's ability to improve margins as demand normalizes [23][24] - The company plans to focus on cost control and inventory reduction to navigate the current market dynamics [24][25] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 6.8 million shares year-to-date, reducing shares outstanding by 2.3% in 2025 [23] - A $400 million delayed draw term loan was secured to manage upcoming bond maturities, providing financial flexibility [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did the end markets track expectations in Q3? - Management clarified that there was no share loss; customer purchasing patterns affected volumetric performance, with the company outperforming overall market trends [35][36] Question: Confidence in Waco's EBITDA contribution for next year? - Management expressed high confidence in Waco delivering the expected $80 million EBITDA contribution, with adjustments based on market volumes [37][38] Question: Opportunities for productivity improvement? - Management highlighted various levers to improve efficiency, including capital expenditure reduction and inventory management [44][46] Question: Trends in the food service market? - Management noted that fast casual dining is under pressure, while quick service restaurants are performing better, with innovation expected to drive volume growth [50][51] Question: Impact of competitive price pressure on SBS and CUK? - Management confirmed that they have not lost market share and emphasized the cost advantages of coated recycled paperboard over bleached alternatives [60][61] Question: Clarification on Waco's start-up costs? - Management indicated that the start-up costs of $65-$75 million are primarily operating costs incurred during the facility's ramp-up, with a portion expected to carry into 2026 [80][83]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Graphic Packaging's sales for Q3 2025 were $2.2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $383 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.5% [5][10] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was reported at $0.58 [5] - Year-on-year volume was down 2%, but the company outperformed most markets served [10][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The innovation platform contributed approximately $52 million, roughly 2% of sales, helping to outperform challenges in volumetric performance [35] - Food and household products remained steady, while beverage and food service showed weakness [13][18] - Health and beauty, primarily a European business, continued to perform solidly [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The consumer market has bifurcated, with upper-income consumers spending differently and lower-income consumers cutting back due to rising food prices [9][10] - Grocery volumes have been impacted, with CPG customers timing purchases to manage cash, leading to less predictable order flows [10][14] - The recycled and unbleached packaging markets are in good balance, but there is unusual competitive pressure from bleached packaging producers [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The Waco facility is a critical investment that enhances supply chain efficiency and reduces waste, expected to provide a competitive advantage for decades [7][8] - The company is transitioning from Vision 2025 to Vision 2030, focusing on free cash flow generation [5][8] - Graphic Packaging aims to leverage its innovation capabilities to open new markets and maintain a strong position in the packaging industry [19][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the Waco facility's ramp-up, expecting it to contribute $80 million to EBITDA in 2026 [37][90] - The company is focused on controlling costs and inventory to protect margins amid a challenging consumer packaging environment [24][25] - Management acknowledged the unpredictability of demand but emphasized the strength of their business model and competitive advantages [28][29] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 6.8 million shares year-to-date, reducing shares outstanding by 2.3% in 2025 [23] - Capital spending is expected to decline significantly to approximately 5% of sales, which will drive cash flow inflection [27][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did the end markets track as expected in Q3? - Management clarified that there was no share loss; customer purchasing patterns affected volumetric performance, with innovation helping to outperform challenges [35][36] Question: Confidence in Waco's EBITDA contribution for next year? - Management expressed high confidence in Waco's ramp-up delivering the expected $80 million contribution [37] Question: Opportunities for productivity improvement? - Management highlighted the focus on controlling costs and optimizing operations to enhance productivity and efficiency [41][46] Question: Trends in the food service market? - Management noted that fast casual dining is under pressure, while quick service restaurants are performing better, with innovation expected to drive growth [50][51] Question: Impact of competitive price pressure on SBS and CUK? - Management stated that they have not lost market share and emphasized the cost advantages of coated recycled paperboard over bleached alternatives [60][61] Question: Clarification on Waco's start-up costs? - Management indicated that the start-up costs of $65 million-$75 million are primarily operating costs incurred during the ramp-up phase, with a portion expected to carry into 2026 [67][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Graphic Packaging's sales for Q3 2025 were $2.2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $383 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.5%. Adjusted EPS was $0.58 [4][10][22] - Year-on-year volumes were down 2%, but the company outperformed most markets served [10][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The innovation platform has opened new markets for paperboard packaging, contributing an additional $52 million in the quarter, roughly 2% of total sales [31] - Food and household products remained steady, while beverage and food service sectors showed weakness [12][18] - Health and beauty, primarily a European business, continued to perform solidly [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The consumer market has bifurcated, with upper-income consumers spending differently and lower-income consumers cutting back due to rising food prices [10] - Grocery volumes have been impacted, with CPG customers timing purchases to manage cash, leading to less predictable order flows [10][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The Waco facility is a critical investment that enhances supply chain efficiency and reduces waste, expected to ramp up to full production in 12-18 months [8][9] - The company is transitioning from Vision 2025 to Vision 2030, focusing on free cash flow generation [8][22] - Graphic Packaging aims to leverage its competitive advantages in innovation, cost efficiency, and quality to drive long-term growth [22][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging consumer packaging environment but expressed confidence in improving margins as demand normalizes [23][25] - The company is focused on controlling costs and inventory, with plans to further reduce SG&A expenses [24][25] - Management expects a significant free cash flow inflection in 2026, targeting $700-$800 million [26][28] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 6.8 million shares year-to-date, reducing shares outstanding by 2.3% in 2025 [23] - The Waco facility's startup costs are estimated at $65-$75 million, with two-thirds incurred in 2025 and one-third in 2026 [46][54] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did the end markets track as expected, and what about share shifts due to bleached board conversion? - Management clarified that there was no share loss; customer purchasing patterns affected volumetric performance, with innovation helping to outperform challenges [31] Question: Confidence in Waco's EBITDA contribution for next year? - Management expressed high confidence in Waco delivering the expected $80 million EBITDA contribution [32] Question: Opportunities for further productivity improvements? - Management highlighted the focus on cost control and efficiency, with a return to normalized CapEx expected to generate significant free cash flow [35] Question: Trends in the food service market? - Management noted that fast casual dining is under pressure, while quick service restaurants are gaining traction, with innovation expected to support volume growth [39] Question: Impact of competitive price pressure on SBS and CUK? - Management confirmed no share loss and emphasized the cost advantages of coated recycled paperboard over bleached alternatives [41] Question: Update on Pacesetter Rene Premium CRB and pricing? - Management indicated that while Rene is a competitive product, pricing may be impacted by market dynamics, but they have the capabilities to manage this [49] Question: Expectations for year-end leverage? - Management projected a net debt range of 3.5-3.7 times by year-end, influenced by reduced EBITDA and share repurchases [50]

Financial Performance & Guidance - Q3 2025 net sales decreased by 1% year-over-year to $2190 million, compared to $2216 million in Q3 2024[31] - Packaging sales decreased by 2% year-over-year, with volume down 2% and price down 1%[7, 31] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $383 million, a decrease from $433 million in Q3 2024, resulting in a margin of 175%, down 200 basis points[31] - Adjusted EPS for Q3 2025 was $058, compared to $064 in Q3 2024[31] - The company reaffirms its net sales guidance for 2025 at $84 billion to $86 billion, but lowers Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $14 billion to $145 billion and Adjusted EPS guidance to $180 to $200[37] Innovation & Market Trends - The company is on track to achieve 2% innovation sales growth in 2025[7] - The addressable market opportunity for paperboard packaging innovation is $15 billion[13] - Innovation is focused on more circular, more functional, and more convenient packaging solutions[19] - The company highlights a $5 billion global trays and bowls addressable market opportunity with their ProducePack™ innovation, aiming for up to 95% plastic reduction[21] Capital Allocation - Year-to-date, the company has returned $248 million to stockholders, including $98 million in cash dividends and $150 million in share repurchases[35] - Approximately 68 million shares were repurchased at an average price of $2217 per share, reducing shares outstanding by 23%[35]

Graphic Packaging Holding Company Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Third Quarter Highlights ATLANTA, November 4, 2025 - Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE: GPK) ("Graphic Packaging" or the "Company"), a global leader in sustainable consumer packaging, today reported third quarter 2025 results. Net Income in third quarter 2025 was $142 million, or $0.48 per diluted share, versus $165 million, or $0.55 per diluted share in third quarter 2024. Third quarter 2025 and 2024 Net Income were impact ...

Core Viewpoint - Graphic Packaging (GPK) reported quarterly earnings of $0.58 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.54 per share, but down from $0.64 per share a year ago, indicating a +7.41% earnings surprise [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $2.19 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.09%, although this is a decrease from $2.22 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Graphic Packaging has exceeded consensus EPS estimates two times and revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance and Outlook - Graphic Packaging shares have declined approximately 42.3% year-to-date, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 16.5% [3] - The company's current Zacks Rank is 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6] Future Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.48 on revenues of $2.04 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.95 on revenues of $8.52 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions prior to the earnings release was unfavorable, which may impact future stock movements [6] Industry Context - The Containers - Paper and Packaging industry is currently ranked in the bottom 31% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for stocks within this sector [8]

Core Insights - Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported a decrease in net income for Q3 2025, with net income at $142 million ($0.48 per diluted share), down from $165 million ($0.55 per diluted share) in Q3 2024 [2][3] - The company experienced a 1% decline in net sales, totaling $2,190 million compared to $2,216 million in the same quarter last year, attributed to lower volumes and prices in the Americas [5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $383 million, a 13% decrease from $433 million in Q3 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.5% compared to 19.5% in the previous year [6][20] Financial Performance - Net income for Q3 2025 was impacted by special items and amortization charges totaling $30 million, compared to $29 million in Q3 2024 [2] - Adjusted net income for Q3 2025 was $172 million ($0.58 per diluted share), down from $194 million ($0.64 per diluted share) in Q3 2024 [20] - Total debt increased to $5,941 million in Q3 2025 from $5,209 million in Q4 2024, resulting in a net leverage ratio of 3.9x compared to 3.0x in the previous quarter [7] Operational Highlights - The company successfully launched its Waco, Texas recycled paperboard manufacturing facility ahead of schedule, with expectations to reach full production in 12 to 18 months [4] - Capital expenditures in Q3 2025 were $267 million, down from $313 million in the same quarter last year [8] - The company returned approximately $248 million to shareholders in the first nine months of 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, including a $39 million repurchase in Q3 [9] Market Outlook - For the full year 2025, the company expects net sales between $8.4 billion and $8.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA between $1.40 billion and $1.45 billion, and adjusted EPS between $1.80 and $2.00 [10] - The company noted high volume and market uncertainty due to stretched consumer conditions and weakened consumer confidence [10]

Group 1 - Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) is recognized as an oversold mid-cap stock with potential for investment according to hedge funds [1] - The company announced the resignation of Chief Financial Officer Stephen Scherger, effective November 7, 2025, who will join rival Amcor [1][2] - Charles D. Lischer, the Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, has been appointed as Interim CFO starting November 7, 2025 [2] Group 2 - Graphic Packaging is a leading provider of paper-based packaging solutions, serving clients in the food, beverage, and consumer product sectors [3] - The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, and operates globally with a focus on sustainability, innovation, and vertically integrated manufacturing [3]

Upgrades - Baird upgraded Zions Bancorp (ZION) to Outperform from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $65, advising investors to take advantage of the selloff in shares [2] - Stifel upgraded International Paper (IP) to Buy from Hold with an unchanged price target of $57.80, noting that initial exuberance following the CEO's appointment has been replaced by more realistic expectations [2] - HSBC upgraded Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $50, up from $43, citing record-high precious metal prices and copper's outperformance due to supply disruptions [2] - KeyBanc upgraded AppFolio (APPF) to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $285 price target, indicating renewed confidence in the company's momentum following customer conversations at its annual conference [3] - UBS upgraded Deere (DE) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $535, down from $545, expecting 2026 to be the last year of earnings downturn before recovery in 2027 [4] Downgrades - TD Cowen downgraded Booz Allen (BAH) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $105, down from $125, anticipating a reduction in fiscal 2026 guidance [5] - Barclays double downgraded AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) to Underweight from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $60, citing excessive stock valuation despite attractive opportunities [5] - Raymond James downgraded Bank OZK (OZK) to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target, reducing next year's EPS forecast by roughly 12% due to softer loan growth expectations and higher expenses [5] - Raymond James downgraded Graphic Packaging (GPK) to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target, indicating that recent share weakness limits differentiation [5] - Raymond James downgraded Silgan Holdings (SLGN) to Outperform from Strong Buy with a price target of $53, down from $60, while still constructive on the company, taking a more conservative approach due to caution from Q2 items [5]

Core Insights - Amcor has announced the hiring of Stephen Scherger as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective November 10, succeeding Michael Casamento who has served in the role for 10 years [1][4]. Company Developments - Stephen Scherger previously served as CFO of Graphic Packaging International (GPI) for a decade, during which GPI's net sales more than doubled, highlighting his significant impact on the company's growth [2]. - Under Scherger's leadership, GPI completed major acquisitions, including the 2018 merger with International Paper's North America consumer packaging business and the 2021 acquisition of AR Packaging for $1.45 billion [3]. - Amcor's recent leadership change marks its second major C-suite transition in two years, following the promotion of Peter Konieczny to CEO in 2024 [5]. Transition Details - Scherger will conclude his tenure at GPI after the third-quarter earnings report on November 4, with Charles Lischer appointed as interim CFO [6].